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  1. #41

    Default Trump`s tax reform

    How does this new suggested legislation affect the US economy?
    This week we chose to return our discussion to the political situation in the United States where we have another major news story: the new tax plan proposed by President Trumpís administration. This story is significant particularly because this is barely the second major piece of legislation that Trumpís office has produced. The first one was the now infamous health care bill which died a slow death in Congress, repeatedly. The failure of the administration then drove investors to doubt the stability of Trumpís mandate, which was a major contributor to the record lows of the American dollar registered up until last week. Can this new bill on taxes have the same impact? Letís see!
    First off, we need to acknowledge how important tax policy was to Trumpís presidential campaign. He had a few key issues that were the highlights of his rhetoric: immigration, repeal Obamacare, and a better tax policy, among a few that stand out the most. His attempts to curb immigration through travel bans have been met with major disapproval, his plans to repeal or replace Obamacare have failed, and now his proposal on tax policy is met with a lot of doubt before itís even fully-defined. Trumpís previous failures managed to shake the dollar, so it is reasonable to argue that if his tax bill is a fiasco, he might hurt the American currency again.
    The plan that Trumpís administration announced on Wednesday can hardly be called anything, according to experts. It contains vague outlines of the administrationís goals while it lacks clear explanations of how they propose to achieve them. The actual work on making this plan more meaningful still lies ahead and may take months, according to CNN. What we know for certain is that the plan will decrease the top income tax from 39.6 to 35%, giving a major advantage to the richest Americans. The proposal would suggests an increase of the ratio of income that is exempt from taxes, which would mean a lower tax for every individual. While this sounds great for peopleís personal incomes, it would make a major dent in the budget of the United States, due to trillions of dollars of potential tax revenue not being collected.
    Trumpís tax plan doesnít provide any guidance on how the budget shortage will be compensated under such a policy. It also doesnít prove that this new tax system wonít place a greater burden on the middle class, which Trump has stated he wants to protect. It very clearly benefits the rich, while itís murky (at best) in terms of all other income groups in the United States.
    The plan also suggests a simplification of the tax system by collapsing the current seven-step policy (where seven different income groups are taxed a different percentage, between 10% and 39.6% for the poorest and richest incomes, respectively). The new system would have just three groups: 12%, 25%, and 35%, but the income brackets for each tax rate are still unknown. Itís also interesting that some corporate taxes are proposed for the 25% rate instead of the 35%, which may cause a lot of tax fraud.
    Considering how much information is missing from the proposal, itís still very difficult to dissect it. However, Republicans themselves do not agree on many of these issues, not to mention that Democrats are not likely to support anything that cuts the taxes of the wealthy, so this piece of legislation is likely to have trouble passing through Congress Ė if it is ever completed.
    Right now there might not be too much to this story as we still need to hear more concrete points about the tax bill. However, itís worth it to stay tuned and watch out for further instability within the United States. They are already in the spotlight due to tensions with North Korea Ė any internal disorder would only worsen their economic climate and weaken the dollar.
    SuperForex - Company News-trump-s-tax-reform5-jpg

  2. #42

    Default GBP/AUD Technical Outlook before the Cash Rate

    Looking for new highs after breaking the price channel.
    In our last report about the GBP/AUD on September 5 the pair was trading inside a descending price channel and we recommended selling the pair if the prices are still trading between its limits, unless the prices broke the limit. We saw the pair broke the upper limit on September 12 and retested the broken level on Sep 14, so we closed our sell positions and we were supposed to take buy positions after the retest, according to classical theory in case of breakthroughs.
    After the price channel breaking, Forex theory says that the prices will rise as much as the last upside wave before the channel. You can see the black lines in the chart below, so the target of this wave will be at 1.7870. The pair reached the key resistance level 1.7143 last week, which has 10 tops and bottoms on it. You can see 5 in the chart below, so the prices will make a little downward correction and rise again to break it. The moving average is still trading below the prices to support our positive vision for the pair.
    The Next Few Days
    Based on this analysis, we have taken a positive vision after breaking the channel. We know that the pair will break the resistance level soon, so we can take a buy position now at the current level at 1.7024 and if the prices return back to 1.6980 we can take another buy position, keeping our target at 1.7625 and another long-term target at 1.7870.
    Tomorrow we have the cash rate and the policy statement from the Republic Bank of Australia and PMIís data from the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday we have the retail sales and trade balance from Australia, so we should trade carefully this week due to this news.

    SuperForex - Company News-gbp-aud-technical-outlook-before-the-cash-rate-0-jpg

  3. #43

    Default GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

    The pound-dollar pair is now demonstrating a downward movement. Our price is under the slow moving MA (120), which now becomes our support level.
    Against the backdrop of not the most optimistic data on business activity in the industrial sector of the United Kingdom, we continue to observe the strengthening of the dollar against the British currency. That signals a possible slowdown in economic growth.
    Our technical indicators also indicate a downward movement. The pair is delayed near stronger, day-time Fibo levels.
    That is why at the moment it is recommended to look for points to enter short positions.
    Support and resistance levels:
    SuperForex - Company News-gbp-usd-technical-analysis-daily-chart-031017-0-jpg

  4. #44

    Default USD/MXN: Short Review & Forecast

    The USD has strengthened against most currencies based on positive economic news and increased probability for a new rate hike this year.
    The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies this week. At the same time, the tragic event in Las Vegas wasn't noticed by investors amid positive economic news, which increases the probability of a rate hike in the United States. FED Chairman Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank is not going to refuse one more rate hike which was scheduled this year. In addition, the dollar received support from the tax reform which was promised personally by Donald Trump. Also, the USD has been supported given the probability of a change of the head of the Federal Reserve. Analysts forecast that Kevin Warsh will be chosen as new FED Head. It's known that he is a supporter of a strong dollar and tight monetary policy. Consequently, there are perspectives for further strengthening of the dollar.

    Data about the Mexican economy also pleased investors this week. The business activity index amounted to 52.8 points in September, surpassing investors' expectations. This is a record level in recent years, but the decision of the Central Bank of Mexico to keep the rate at the same level didn't support significantly the MXN compared to the strong dollar. So, the rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although the resistance line has been gradually shifting upwards for the last several months, indicating a weakening of the current trend. However, at the moment the most optimal would be the deals on the trend, which is confirmed unanimously by the MACD and Stochastics oscillators.

  5. #45

    Default EUR/CHF technical analysis

    At the moment we are seeing an upward movement in this pair. Despite the destabilizing factors from the eurozone, the euro continues to strengthen against the Swiss currency after a recent sharp fall. Technical indicators indicate to us an upward movement. The price at the moment is under the moving average MA (89) and is trying to break it.

    From a fundamental standpoint, we do not expect any factors contradicting this price movement neither for the franc, nor for the euro. Therefore, we will look for an entrance into long positions near the support lines and exit points near the resistance levels.

    Support and resistance levels:

    SuperForex - Company News-05-tech-jpg

  6. #46

    Default Catalonia: Spanish or Independent?

    Last week's referendum has brought new tensions to Europe.
    The European markets shook this week, as last weekend Catalonia, an autonomous area comprising four provinces in northeastern Spain, held a referendum and voted in support of its independence from Spain. This week we would take a look at what happened and also where that leaves us now.
    To begin with, the political status of Catalonia has long been a pressing concern on the Iberian peninsula. The region has long claimed it is a distinct nation, owing to historical evidence that up to the 16th century, it used to be separate from Spain. In modern history, Catalonia has fought for its independence all throughout the 20th century: it first received a status as an autonomous region within Spain in 1932, which was taken away during Franco’s rule. The autonomous status of Catalonia was restored in the 1970s when Spain returned to democratic rule. Catalans are allowed to speak their own language and have their own government, though officially it is subordinate to the Spanish government.
    Over the last few years tensions regarding Catalan nationality have risen, culminating in last week’s referendum. Spain is naturally opposed to losing land and people which have been part of its territory over the last five centuries. Catalonia also happens to be a fairly rich territory. In general, if Catalonia declares independence, this would be perceived by Spanish authorities as an attempt to disrupt Spain’s territorial integrity and could even lead to (civil) war.
    Is Catalonia independent? Right now, no. The referendum’s goal was to assess whether the Catalan population wants to be independent from Spain. They voted 90% in favor, but it is up to the Catalan government to decide whether to act on this vote or not. The referendum itself caused violent clashes with the Spanish police, so the Catalan authorities might bide their time, working out a way to avoid future conflict. The Catalan president Carles Puigdemont has spoken about involving international diplomats to help hold peaceful negotiations.
    Naturally, the seriousness of this situation has caused ripples through the financial markets. Spanish stocks lost 2.7% this week, while banks that are based in Barcelona (the capital of Catalonia) were a whole 7% down. Spanish bonds have also decreased.
    So, what happens now? Some analysts believe that Catalonia is not fully prepared for independence, in terms of its political organs and readiness for policy making. The region has relied on Spain, and by extension, the European Union for many of its day-to-day activities, so severing that relationship will be hard. If Catalonia declared independence without Spain’s approval, it would find itself in a tight spot. Spain’s economy will also suffer immensely, and future clashes and protests will hinder business activity. Investors could give up on Spanish assets altogether, which could plunge the government into a recession.
    It is more likely that there will be a negotiation, which could win Catalonia additional levels of control over its activities, but would still not be a complete independence from Spain.
    Because of the current protests and blocked roads, it has been impossible for some businesses to operate as usual. If things continue to be so chaotic and uncertain, Spain’s economic growth would stall.
    Right now all eyes are on the Iberian Peninsula. If the King of Spain agrees to meet for peaceful negotiations, the pressure would ease off Spanish assets. However, if Catalonia moves ahead and declares independence, we could see a new crisis in Spain, and consequently Europe.

    SuperForex - Company News-111-jpg

  7. #47

    Default AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

    After breaking the channel, the pair is looking forward to the next support level.
    Last week the AUD/JPY declined by more than 130 pips after the negative retail sales from Australia, which came at -0.6% compared to the forecasted at 0.3% and the previous one at -0.2%. As a result, the pair slipped from 88.60 to trade now at 87.30. In our last report about the pair we recommended buying the pair around 88.00 and the prices hit our targets at 89.00 and 90.20.
    The pair is trading at the support level 87.38 after it broke the short-term price channel last Friday and closed the candle below it, so it may lead the price to further lows in the next days. The moving average is trading above the price to support the negative movement but we have to see a candle close below the support level. The RSI indicator is ahead of 10 level to make an overbought action.
    The Next Few Days
    Based on this analysis of the the daily chart, we will look forward to an H4 or daily candle closing below the support level 87.38 to sell the pair below it, keeping our target at 85.80. Then we will stay out of the market to see what will happen and the lower limit of the long-term channel. On the other hand, if we see the price back to trade above 88.25 we can buy it till the next resistance level.
    This week the markets donít have any important news from Australia or Japan but we will trade carefully regarding any uncalendared news because of the political tensions between the USA and North Korea.

    SuperForex - Company News-09-10-jpg

  8. #48

    Default GBP/CAD Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

    After breaking the channel, we are still looking forward new highs, despite the downward movement this month.
    In our previous report about the GBP/CAD pair last month we mentioned the channel breaking and recommended buying the pair after the break. We saw the prices rose last month but they haven't hit our target yet. This month the pair has been declining to reach down the moving average for the last 50 days around 1.6367 - it found a support level there.
    The pair is now trading around 1.6500, below 38.2% Fibonacci but we expect the prices will break it up again to resume the correction wave and reach 50% and 61.8% and maybe more, if they break last monthís high after forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If the prices rose from here directly, the MACD indicator will start giving us a sell signal but the columns are still above the zero level.
    The Next Few Days
    The plan from here is straightforward. In case of any downward movement we will buy the pair to our main target at 50% - we can take a buy position now around 1.6500 and close part of the trade at 1.5710, and the rest of orders at 1.6850. That is in case the pair is still trading above 1.6223.
    The manufacturing production was released from the UK and came in positive numbers at 0.4%, compared to the forecasted 0.2%. This week we donít have any important news elsewhere from the UK or Canada but we have to look at the chart periodically even once a day in anticipation of any uncalendared news.
    SuperForex - Company News-gbp-cad-10-10-jpg

  9. #49

    Default XAU/USD: Short Review & Forecast

    The strong USD and the high probability of a rate hike this year put pressure on the GOLD. However, the geopolitical situation can change everything.
    The situation on the market changed last month and the upward trend turned into a downward one. Until September the dollar had been under pressure due to geopolitical conflicts, the failure of Donald Trump's reforms and weak economic statistics. Consequently, a further increasing of the interest rate this year was doubtful for investors. All these negative factors followed one by one and put pressure on the dollar. Therefore, investors chose safer assets. This led to the Gold rising in price since the beginning of the year.
    This week the dollar came under pressure again due to geopolitical risks because North Korea has announced new tests of ballistic missiles which are capable of reaching U.S. territory. However, the dollar has kept at a good level due to the strong economic statistics. The latest data on the labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2% - the lowest level since 2001. In addition, the average hourly earnings have grown by 2.9%, which increases the probability of rising inflation. Therefore, a rate hike in the US in December is now expected by investors with a probability of 90%.
    The resistance line of the trend is under the threat of moving up due to all of the geopolitical risks, but at the moment the most optimal course would be the short deals in the short-term, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator.
    SuperForex - Company News-jpg

  10. #50

    Default AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    Today during the Australian session there were a number of indicators for Australia released, which were generally higher than projected.
    At the moment the pair is trading in the corridor between Fibo levels held on the daily chart. We observe that the price breaks through the "body" of the candle into our levels and often returns to the previous range.
    If we view our graph from the point of view of wave analysis, then we can observe the completion of the medium-term downward movement and the formation of the second upward wave.
    This is why today's trading recommendation is to look for points to enter long positions in the area of ​​the mark of 0.7810 with the expectation of the formation of an upward wave.
    SuperForex - Company News-aud-usd-technical-analysis-0-jpg

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