Forex Forecast for 13-17 April 2015
Looking back at last week’s forecast, one has to admit that the Forex market cannot succumb to panic. What I mean is that, contrary to all logic, the analysts suddenly decided to predict growth for all four pairs last week and, of course, were punished for this :
- end of the winter, EUR/USD was predicted to aspire to reach the landmark of 1.0000, and I stood by it all along. However, as soon as the analysts changed their outlook for just one week and predicted its rise, EUR/USD immediately started to move downwards to 1.0600 where it was expected in early April;
- the scenario for GBP/USD was quite similar. During the week, the pair made two attempts to play along with the analysts and get up to 1.5000. However, it bounced off 1.4980 and plunged by 400 points altogether, reaching its mid-March low;
- the weekly forecast for USD/JPY came true – the pair displayed both bullish tendencies and attempts to reach the range of 121.50-122.00. Nonetheless, its record is “just” 120.730 so far;
- the prediction for USD/CHF also stood – after a downward rebound, the pair returned to a bullish trend, aiming to meet EUR and USD at the 1.0000 mark.
The forecast for this week. Looking at the table generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, one can draw an interim conclusion: if two weeks ago the number of confused analysts was around 30%, now it is already over 50%. Despite this, I’d like to offer such forecasts :
- EUR/USD (like the rest of the mentioned pairs) is expected to stay on course and try to break through the level of 1.0460. The pair will experience the pressure of its top boundary at 1.0720;
- GBP/USD is predicted to be in a sideways trend under bearish influence, the upper boundary being 1.4800. The bottom boundary is hard to define as the pair has gone below its 5-year minimum. For now, it can be set just under 1.4500;
- USD/JPY will continue to move up to 121.50, although for some time the pair may be in a sideways trend;
- finally, the forecast for USD/CHF is again similar to that for USD/JPY – upwards to 1.0000 and maybe even a bit higher.
Roman Butko, NordFX