Nord FX - The base of your success !!
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  1. #671
    Senior Member tava's Avatar
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    Jun 2010


    Forex Forecast for 24-28 August 2015

    Let’s review the forecast for the previous week :
    • the EUR/USD pair was predicted to go down to the 1.1035 support at the start of the week, which happened. The pair fell to the said level 18 August. Next day, after a rebound, the pair rose to the set target of 1.1280 where it stayed most of Friday;
    • the forecast for GBP/USD also stood. First, the pair reached 1.5690 and then sharply descended to around 1.5550 (1.5560 to be precise). On Tuesday, the predicted bounce towards the top boundary of the ascending trend (1.5690) took place, and the pair finished the week at that very level;
    • the sideways trend predicted for USD/JPY lasted only for the first half of the week. However, the USA and China supported the bears, and the pair ended up 250 pips below the level of the start of the week;
    • there was a similar situation with USD/CHF. On Wednesday, the bears simply derailed the pair, and only an extremely strong support level of 0.9480 was able to stop that dramatic fall. The pair has been trying to break through this level since spring.

    Forecast for the coming week.
    Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and brokerages as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed :
    • most analysts believe that once EUR/USD reaches a strong resistance level of 1.1460, it will remain in a sideways trend with support at 1.1150 for some time. An alternative view suggests that EUR/USD will fall to 1.0840 after the current correction. As for the indicators, H1, H4 and D1 all point exclusively upwards. Even W1 shows a sideways trend as a compromise. Graphical analysis on H1, however, insists on the pair’s decline to at least 1.1290 at the start of the week;
    • for the GBP/USD pair, 80% of the experts and 85% of the indicators predict a further up trend with a 1.5800 target at the very least. This forecast is supported by graphical analysis on Н4. The H1 timeframe, however, indicates a continuation of the short-term sideways trend within a 1.5650-1.5715 range at the beginning of the week. In case of a downward breakthrough, the key support should be at 1.5550;
    • as for USD/JPY, 78% of the experts agree that the pair’s fall will end around 122.00, followed by a bounce all the way to resistance at 124.60. Should the pair break through the 122.00 support level, it can easily go down to 120.20. Graphical analysis seems to indicate a very similar scenario – a short-term descent to around 120.40-121.20, followed by a rebound to 124.60;
    • regarding USD/CHF, both experts and graphical analysis propose that the pair’s rise will start from 0.9400 and continue to a 0.9700-0.9750 range. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the ascent will begin right away on Monday. As for a longer-term forecast for the coming months, USD/CHF may fall to 0.9100, reverse and reach the 1.0000 hallmark after all.

    Roman Butko, NordFX

  2. #672
    Senior Member tava's Avatar
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  3. #673
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  4. #674
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  5. #675
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  6. #676


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  7. #677
    Senior Member tava's Avatar
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    Jun 2010


    Forex Forecast for 31 August - 4 September 2015

    The latest significant developments on global markets caused bursts of unexpectedly strong volatility. However, experience shows that everything falls back into place eventually, and forecasts, which initially seemed to be destined for the dustbin of history, actually end up being correct. Last week was just the case :
    • almost all indicators predicted that EUR/USD would rise, and the experts forecast a 1.1460 peak. In reality, over the previous week, this peak changed hands between the bulls and the bears several times, thus alternately becoming resistance and support. Defying the analysts’ forecasts at the start of the week, the pair finished the week as they had predicted – around 1.1150, the bottom boundary of the weekly corridor;
    • the prediction of GBP/USD’s continuing upward trend towards 1.5800 proved correct. Having tested this level on Monday and Tuesday, GBP/USD rebounded towards the bottom boundary of the said corridor and, after several attempts to break through it on Wednesday, plunged below the key support level. The pair spent just a few hours around 1.5550 and then reached this July’s low;
    • the behavior of USD/JPY on Monday, 24 August, was reminiscent of a kamikaze pilot. As expected, the pair descended to 120.20 smoothly but then within just one hour (!) it dropped by almost 400 points, reaching January’s low. As the experts predicted, the fall was short-lived, and the pair regained 550 points upwards very soon;
    • the USD/CHF pair once again demonstrated an inverse correlation with EUR/USD. As a result, USD/CHF was short of the predicted level of 0.9700 by a meager 30 points.

    Forecast for the upcoming week.
    Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward :
    • most analysts and indicators agree that this week’s Pivot Point for EUR/USD will be at 1.1200. Meanwhile, graphical analysis on H4 suggests that the pair will rise to 1.2550 at the start of the week before falling to 1.1000. After that, its fluctuations should be confined to a 1.1000-1.1150 range. An alternative point of view, supported by graphical analysis on H1 and 25% of the experts, suggests that the initial rise will be much larger, perhaps even to 1.1480;
    • at the start of the week, the GBP/USD pair may test the low within a 1.5330-1.5350 range a few times. After that, according to 65% of the experts and graphical analysis, the pair should rise and regain the bulk of its losses sustained last week. The resistance levels are 1.5550 and 1.5640;
    • in their forecasts for USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators suggest that the bulls will be very active and push the pair up to 123.30. As a result, the pair should reach at least 122.20-122.50 which will become the resistance level for an ensuing sideways trend. The main support will be at 119.50, with the next level at 118.00;
    • all indicators on H1, H4 and D1 show a rise for USD/CHF. The forecasts of the experts and graphical analysis are split about 50/50. For instance, graphical analysis on Н4 suggests that the pair should fall to support around 0.9390 at the start of the week and only then rebound upwards to resistance at 0.9560. Analysis on D1, on the other hand, indicates that during the week, USD/CHF should rise steadily to 0.9900 and further to 1.0000 in September.

    Roman Butko, NordFX

  8. #678

  9. #679
    Senior Member tava's Avatar
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    Jun 2010


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  10. #680
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Nord FX - The base of your success !!