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Thread: Why do they fail?

  1. #1
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    Default Why do they fail?

    Hey guys i was looking at top commeercial expert advisors, and every single one of them as time goes buy, the profits seem to get worse and worse, why is that???

    Is there any EA that can deliver consistent positive results month in month out, and not deteriorate every single month??
    I'm talking about even free EA's this is amazing all the forward tests, every month or week, they get worse and worse!! until they start completely self destructing!!

    How is this possible??? what is the cause of this???
    I just find that really weird.
    Last edited by gselsidi; 09-04-2009 at 05:28.

  2. #2
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    Hey,

    I mean the answer is very simpli, because they are optimized for the past, not for the future.

  3. #3
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    additional:

    - there are ea's out they will always fail, because bad coding
    - most users, dont have the environment to test in forward, because an very good ea with 10 different options/settings must have a minimum of 50 demos running to get forward demo results = 2 quadcore server
    - and last, users starts mostly with legends in minds to catch easy money at forex, but this is hard work, day by day

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by gselsidi View Post
    Hey guys i was looking at top commeercial expert advisors, and every single one of them as time goes buy, the profits seem to get worse and worse, why is that???

    Is there any EA that can deliver consistent positive results month in month out, and not deteriorate every single month??
    I'm talking about even free EA's this is amazing all the forward tests, every month or week, they get worse and worse!! until they start completely self destructing!!

    How is this possible??? what is the cause of this???
    I just find that really weird.
    Main cause - it's stupid to sell good EA, it is smart to sell bad EAs. It is also smart to share ideas in forums if you need a second opinion, input and development. Otherwise best ideas are kept quiet. For me forums were great to get free indicators and scripts, but not more then that
    ***
    Yes it's possible to develop a good one. But they aren't publicly available yet.
    ***

    My conclusion after running so many forward tests and few ultimately unsuccessful live test (with- $300 lost) that available EAs are:
    1. stupid and their logic is too primitive, unable to adapt.
    2. those that do perform profitable on demo forward tests, still fail in live markets because of life execution errors. the profit margin versus risk is too small, DD 40%. For instance on demo Thunder and Fap shows +20%/month over 4 moth actual demo on ECN, but this gets wiped out easily dew execution. Inverted risk reward, making them totally impractical, unstable.
    3. Entire MT4 platform is buggy to begin with and realistically only good for manual trade, not to mention broker is given direct control over your EA. Just this fact alone making it obsolete option, but you can run same code on a different platform like Pro Station.
    *******
    Overall EA opportunity is over hyped by internet marketers who earn from selling EAs, not from running them in real markets. Some of the marketers are real elaborate and masquerade real well as "professional traders", but they are not currency traders, they are click bank or E-bay professional traders and or coders sometimes.
    ***
    In reality EA biz is in its infancy and as with market indicators and systems it follows the same motto: "keep the best, sell the rest".
    ***
    I remember 10-15 years ago it was a book selling boom
    on trading, now it turned into EA selling boom. It will take few years for dust to settle.
    ***
    Beware of MT4 Stats and account statements in MT accessible with investor password. These are being repeatedly hacked and faked lately. In reality the only tests you can trust are your own market tests. Always run your own demo tests first before committing any money.
    ****
    Some traders use EAs as one of more elaborate market indicators in their manual setups. Some turn them on and off or run in combination with money management EA. In any case they use them as tools after months of tests and market observations. Some have a good grip on optimization and trust that, but only as another tool.
    So it all boils down to your personal trading style
    ***
    I know you were promised EA will run out of the box, but that's widely an unsubstantiated claim. Run your own tests and get your refund
    Last edited by Metatrader7; 09-04-2009 at 13:41.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Metatrader7 View Post
    Main cause - it's stupid to sell good EA, it is smart to sell bad EAs. It is also smart to share ideas in forums if you need a second opinion, input and development. Otherwise best ideas are kept quiet. For me forums were great to get free indicators and scripts, but not more then that
    ***
    Yes it's possible to develop a good one. But they aren't publicly available yet.
    ***

    My conclusion after running so many forward tests and few ultimately unsuccessful live test (with- $300 lost) that available EAs are:
    1. stupid and their logic is too primitive, unable to adapt.
    2. those that do perform profitable on demo forward tests, still fail in live markets because of life execution errors. the profit margin versus risk is too small, DD 40%. For instance on demo Thunder and Fap shows +20%/month over 4 moth actual demo on ECN, but this gets wiped out easily dew execution. Inverted risk reward, making them totally impractical, unstable.
    3. Entire MT4 platform is buggy to begin with and realistically only good for manual trade, not to mention broker is given direct control over your EA. Just this fact alone making it obsolete option, but you can run same code on a different platform like Pro Station.
    *******
    Overall EA opportunity is over hyped by internet marketers who earn from selling EAs, not from running them in real markets. Some of the marketers are real elaborate and masquerade real well as "professional traders", but they are not currency traders, they are click bank or E-bay professional traders and or coders sometimes.
    ***
    In reality EA biz is in its infancy and as with market indicators and systems it follows the same motto: "keep the best, sell the rest".
    ***
    I remember 10-15 years ago it was a book selling boom
    on trading, now it turned into EA selling boom. It will take few years for dust to settle.
    ***
    Beware of MT4 Stats and account statements in MT accessible with investor password. These are being repeatedly hacked and faked lately. In reality the only tests you can trust are your own market tests. Always run your own demo tests first before committing any money.
    ****
    Some traders use EAs as one of more elaborate market indicators in their manual setups. Some turn them on and off or run in combination with money management EA. In any case they use them as tools after months of tests and market observations. Some have a good grip on optimization and trust that, but only as another tool.
    So it all boils down to your personal trading style
    ***
    I know you were promised EA will run out of the box, but that's widely an unsubstantiated claim. Run your own tests and get your refund
    you mentioned

    3. Entire MT4 platform is buggy to begin with and realistically only good for manual trade, not to mention broker is given direct control over your EA. Just this fact alone making it obsolete option, but you can run same code on a different platform like Pro Station.

    care to explain more how brokers sees and controls our EA? Isn't that amount to fraud and unethical?

  6. #6
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    @Metatrader7

    "Beware of MT4 Stats ......... These are being repeatedly hacked and faked lately."

    that's so far an unproved myth or can u proof it ?

  7. #7
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    "Beware of MT4 Stats ......... These are being repeatedly hacked and faked lately." How can hack? maybe not load all of history, only upload a part of history? I realy don't understand and don't belive this.. http://www.myfxbook.com/ is hackable too? more professional page!

  8. #8
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    yea man i don't know i mean i wouldn't mind paying monthly or even a couple of grand for a good EA that can perform nicely, i mean i know very wealthy people and big banks definitely have them im sure its not 1 guy or a couple of guys trading currency all day long, they have robots trading non stop, and people might come in and see how its running lol.

    there was an article on Goldman sachs how their software can manipulate an entire market, they can see all the bids, asks, stops, and automatically this software trades and snatches up money.

    I just hope one day maybe soon, someone would actually be nice and release an EA thats well worth it.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by gselsidi View Post
    Hey guys i was looking at top commeercial expert advisors, and every single one of them as time goes buy, the profits seem to get worse and worse, why is that???

    Is there any EA that can deliver consistent positive results month in month out, and not deteriorate every single month??
    I'm talking about even free EA's this is amazing all the forward tests, every month or week, they get worse and worse!! until they start completely self destructing!!

    How is this possible??? what is the cause of this???
    I just find that really weird.
    Robominer II is a solid EA. Very consistant ! Trades long term on grid system.
    Account only goes up , never down ...

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by hammy66 View Post
    Robominer II is a solid EA. Very consistant ! Trades long term on grid system.
    Account only goes up , never down ...
    yea im actually demoing robominer hopefully its solid, because eventually i want to manually trade.

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