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  1. #11
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    Daily Market Analysis 18th May, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    US Dollar tumbles on concerns over US Economy



    On Friday University of Michigan Confidence survey fell for the month of May indicating that there is no robust rebound in the US economy. The consumer sentiment index was 88.6 for May as against the analyst expectations of 95.9

    US Economy faces reduced production and employment from lower oil prices, falling exports, and rising imports from a stronger dollar.

    US Industrial production fell 0.3% in April for a fifth month pushing down the dollar and U.S. bond yields.

    Asian markets are down on Monday and US Dollar stays weak amid a basket of major currencies after weak signs from the US Economy.

    Globally investors are concerned over the weakness of the US economy, slowdown in China and problems in the Eurozone.

    Rise in the Euro zone debt yields is supporting the EURUSD which is trading above 1.1400 in the Asian trading session.

    In Japan Industrial production fell to -0.8% while analyst expectations were at -0.3% for the month of April.

    In Canada manufacturing sales climbed to 2.9% in March which was above the market expectations of a 1.0% gain.

    Crude Oil is higher trading above 61.30$ amid news of conflicts in Yemen and Iraq.

    Gold remains bullish trading at 1227.94 in the Asian trading session, while Silver is strong at 17.66

    18th May 2015 07:18hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis 19th May, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    Asian markets and Euro lower on Greece concerns



    Asian markets are down on renewed concerns over Greece and Euro remains under pressure trading below 1.1300 Investors fear of a Greek bankruptcy as the Greek Prime Minister Alexi Tsipras said the country is running out of funds.

    Greek Finance minister said on Monday that it is getting closer to a deal with its lenders that would help it meet debt repayments next month.

    The possibility of a Greek default or exit from the Eurozone can cause big intraday swings and High volatility in the coming weeks.

    Eurozone is due to release German ZEW Economic sentiment and Euro-Zone CPI today, while UK will release its Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index.

    The Australian dollar sank after the Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes showing the board continued to see it as too strong given the current economic conditions.

    The RBA said that further interest rate cuts are possible stating that members did not see this as limiting the board's scope for any action that might be appropriate at future meetings.

    NZDUSD was up after the RBNZ reported higher inflation expectations going forward. The central bank said expectations were for a gain of 1.32% from 1.11% seen in the first quarter.

    Crude Oil is down at 59.73$ due to a stronger US Dollar and the news that Saudi exports reached a 7-year high.

    Gold is trading lower this morning at 1219.70 while Silver is weak at 17.39

    19th May 2015 07:29hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis – 05th June, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    Greece delays IMF payment until end of June



    Greece moves closer to default and a possible exit from the Eurozone as it will not make a scheduled €300m loan repayment to IMF on Friday.

    IMF said on Thursday "The Greek authorities have informed the fund today that they plan to bundle the country's four June payments into one, which is now due on June 30," Gerry Rice, IMF spokesperson, said, citing rules allowing debtor countries to regroup "multiple principal payments falling due in a calendar month".

    It is the first time that Greece will postpone a repayment to IMF as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is facing opposition from his supporters on tough terms associated with the debt deal.

    Greek prime minister has come under pressure from his supporters to withhold the payment of €300m due to IMF on June 5. The country is running out of funds and needs the final €7.2bn bailout funds to be able to repay €1.54 billion to IMF by June 30.

    Greece PM Tsipras said “Such extremist proposals cannot be accepted by the Greek government. Everyone must understand that the Greek people have greatly suffered over the last five years and some have to stop playing games at their expense.”

    EURUSD pulled back yesterday after this decision from a high of 1.1365 to a low of 1.1178 in the Asian trading session today.

    Traders are focusing on the US Non-Farm Payroll report due to be released today at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect a growth of 227K in the job markets for the month of May. Pre-NFP data suggest a strong NFP report today. Analysts forecast for the Unemployment rate is at 5.4%, the lowest level in seven years.

    Today’s NFP report will indicate whether Fed is willing to hike interest rates in September 2015. Fed will hike interest rates this year if the NFP data picks up in May.

    In UK the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, the lowest level since 2009. The decision by BoE to hold interest rates was supported by data that showed growth of the UK economy slowed down in the Q1 2015 to 0.3%.

    "In UK much will clearly depend on how economic growth, earnings and productivity develop over the coming months, as well as just how quickly inflation moves up later on this year" - Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight.

    In Canada Ivey PMI rose to 62.3 supported by an increase in employment and inventory levels. Today investors will focus on CAD Full Time Employment Change report due on 12:30 GMT. Analysts estimate that Canada's economy will add 10K jobs in May with jobless rate remaining at 6.8%.

    Crude Oil is trading lower at $57.85 on concerns over spiking European yields.

    Gold is trading lower in the Asia at 1176.26 while Silver is flat at 16.18

    05th June 2015 – 10:16hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis – 08th June, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    Strong US Non-Farm Payrolls report boosts Fed Rate Hike in September



    In US total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline - US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    NFP report indicates that the US job market continues to improve solidly and the health of the US economy is more favorable than the weakness displayed in the Q1 GDP report.

    US dollar remained strong across its major counterparts on Friday after the US jobs report boosted speculation of a Fed rate hike in September this year.

    New York Fed president Dudley noted that "if the labour market continues to improve and inflation expectations remain well-anchored, then I would expect, in the absence of some dark cloud gathering over the growth outlook, to support a decision to begin normalizing monetary policy later this year".

    Greece talks continue to dominate the markets as Greek PM Alexis Tsipras stated "the proposals from the creditors are clearly unrealistic...The Greek government cannot consent to unreasonable proposals that call for devastating measures for pensioners and Greek families. I want to believe that it was a bad negotiating trick".

    Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said "the government will not sign a deal that extends this self-feeding crisis of the last 5 years".

    In Canada Net Change in Employment for the month of May was +58.9K Jobs while Unemployment Rate remained at 6.8%.

    In Japan the economy grew at 3.9% in the first quarter of 2015 beating analyst expectations of a 2.7% growth.

    In Germany Factory orders increased by 1.4% in April as German industry looks to experience a boost this year.

    Crude Oil is trading higher at $59.02 after OPEC decided to keep its production target unchanged.

    Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1173.24 while Silver is flat at 16.10

    08th June 2015 – 09:31hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis – 09th June, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    Greece expects to get bailout extension until March 2016



    Greece is in talks with its European creditors for an extension of the country's bailout program until March 2016.

    Greece is running out of funds as talks continue over agreements between Greece and the European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    The European Commission has received a new three page proposal from the Greek government to unlock the bailout funds and bridge the differences on critical issues such as the pension and VAT reforms.

    Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said "that a Greek bankruptcy will be the beginning of the end for the Eurozone. If Europe’s political leadership is unable to handle a problem like Greece, which represents 2% of its economy, how will the markets react for countries with much bigger problems, such as Spain and Italy. If Greece goes under, the markets will immediately seek out the next one. If negotiations should collapse, the cost to European taxpayers will be huge”.

    He further stated "I think we're very close to an agreement on the primary surplus for the next few years. There just needs to be a positive attitude on alternative proposals to cuts to pensions or the imposition of recessionary measures."

    US President Barack Obama said after the end of the G7 summit meeting “We support the efforts to find a path that will allow Greece to implement the necessary reforms and return to growth, in a strong, stable and developing Eurozone”.

    EURUSD has reversed its losses post NFP as the European and US bond yields have soared to their highest levels this year.

    In Germany Exports and Industrial output rose for the month of April. Exports rose by 1.9% while the industrial production increased 0.9% in April.

    "German exporters are increasingly capitalizing on the advantages of a weaker euro, as well as a global demand recovery" - Christian Schulz, economist at Berenberg.

    In Australia Business confidence increased for the month of May as the Reserve Bank of Australia made operating conditions easier by cutting interest rates to a record low.

    National Bank of Australia has revised its fiscal 2015 GDP forecast to 2.4% but lowered its fiscal 2016 GDP forecast to 2.6%.

    Crude Oil is trading higher at $59.19 as weak US dollar boosted demand and pushed global prices higher.

    Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1181.34 while Silver is strong at 16.16

    09th June 2015 – 09:25hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis – 10th June, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    Yen Soars on Bank of Japan comments



    Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko said today "The yen is unlikely to fall further on a real effective exchange rate basis because it is already very weak".

    The US dollar touched a 2 week low against yen after the comments. USDJPY dropped 200 pips to touch a low of 122.56 in the European trading session.

    "There is no asset bubble in Japan at this point. It's hard to conclude decisively that the dollar will continue to strengthen further just because the Fed has done tapering and eyeing raising interest rates" - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

    "If you look at the real effective exchange rate, it shows that the yen is already very weak. Even further declines on a real effective exchange rate basis are not likely to happen" - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

    Globally Bond yields are increasing as Australian 10-year bonds advanced to 3.05%, New Zealand rates rose to 3.92%, 10 year German bund rates rose to 0.95%, US 10 year 10-year Treasury note was at 2.417%, 10-year U.K. government bond yield increased to 2.119%.

    “It’ll take some time for the bond market to recover its composure. The situation in Greece and moves surrounding the U.S. rate hike are still cause for concern” - Yutaka Miura, Mizuho Securities Tokyo.

    “Last week we saw a stand-off between the EU authorities and Greece’s government. Volatility in the bond market has added to investor nervousness, not helped by Mario Draghi’s comments last week” - James Barty, BofA-Merrill Lynch.

    Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande with an aim to achieve a breakthrough in the negotiations and secure the much needed bailout funds for his country.

    In US number of job openings has hit the highest level in April as conditions are improving in the US labour market. The US recorded 5.4 million job openings for the month of April.

    In UK trade deficit shrank more than expected for the month of April. UK's trade deficit was at 1.2 billion pounds while imports increased by 2.1%.

    "In UK although the near-term outlook for the external sector does not look fantastic, at least net trade this quarter looks unlikely to repeat the first quarter's big negative contribution to overall GDP growth" - Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

    Crude Oil rallied to reach a high of $61.41 after news that US stockpiles posted a larger than expected decline for last week.

    Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1184.89 while Silver recovers its losses at 16.13

    10th June 2015 – 07:52hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis – 11th June, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its Cash rate to 3.25%



    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut its official cash rate by 0.25% to 3.25% the first reduction since 2011.

    "The New Zealand economy is growing at an annual rate around three percent, supported by low interest rates, high net migration and construction activity, and the decline in fuel prices. However, the fall in export commodity prices that began in mid-2014 is proving more pronounced. The weaker prospects for dairy prices and the recent rises in petrol prices will slow income and demand growth and increase the risk that the return of inflation to the mid-point would be delayed" - Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    "With the fall in commodity prices and the expected weakening in demand, the exchange rate has declined from its recent peak in April, but remains overvalued. A further significant downward adjustment is justified. In light of the forecast deterioration in the current account balance, such an exchange rate adjustment is needed to put New Zealand’s net external position on a more sustainable path" - Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    Following the rate cut NZDUSD plunged to a 5 year low of 0.7005 in the European trading session. The move by the RBNZ surprised traders as market was pricing less than 50% chances of a rate cut this morning.

    Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had late night talks with the leaders of Germany and France to reach a solution and avoid default. Greece needs to repay €1.6bn to the IMF by the end of June.

    "It was agreed unanimously that the talks between the Greek government and the institutions should be pursued with great intensity" - German government spokesman.
    "We decided to intensify the efforts to bridge the remaining differences and proceed, I believe, to a solution in the coming period" - Greek PM Alexis Tsipras.

    Ratings agency S&P has downgraded Greece by lowering its credit rating from CCC+ to CCC citing the delayed International Monetary Fund repayment.

    In Japan Manufacturing activity deteriorated in the second quarter of the year as Business Survey Index plunged from 2.4 in the Q1 to -6.0 in the Q2.

    "In Japan Core consumer spending fell to the lowest level since last summer in April, and industrial output may well have contracted this quarter. We therefore expect a sharp slowdown in GDP growth" - Marcel Thieliant, Capital Economics.

    In UK Manufacturing output declined in April by 0.4% while total industrial production climbed 0.4% from the previous month.

    "The British economy is on a firm footing, having grown faster than previously thought in 2014 and with solid, steady and sustainable growth predicted into 2016" - NIESR.

    Crude Oil is down to $61.15 after profit taking in the European trading session.

    Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1179.63 while Silver is weak at 15.86

    11th June 2015 – 10:14hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis – 12th June, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    IMF leaves Greece bailout talks amid major differences



    The International Monetary Fund has walked out of talks with Greece amid major differences over labour market and pension reforms.

    “The ball is very much in Greece’s court. There are major differences between us in most key areas. There has been no progress in narrowing these differences recently” - IMF spokesman Gerry Rice.

    Donald Tusk, president of the European Council said "There is no more time for gambling. The day is coming. I'm afraid that someone says that the game is over. It is very obvious that we need decisions, not negotiations".

    "Time is running out, and the risk of insolvency is increasing by the day. The main losers in that scenario would be Greece and the Greek people" - Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank.

    Greece government needs to strike a deal with its European creditors soon and secure the bailout funds. A deal must be signed by the Eurozone finance ministers before the end of the month. If there is no deal then Greece will be in trouble and could fall out of the Eurozone.

    Despite major differences with the IMF Greece hopes to clinch a deal with its lenders at a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers on June 18.

    "I hope a deal will come very soon, on June 18, when the Euro group takes place" - Flabouraris, aid to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

    Greece's Unemployment Rate rose to 26.6% in the first quarter of the year as it continues to struggle with its long term unemployment problem.

    In US Retail sales climbed for the month of May to 1.2% indicating that the economy has regained momentum after contracting in the first quarter.

    In China Retail sales and Industrial output improved for the month of May. Total production from China grew at 6.1% YoY basis in May while retail sales soared 10.1% from a year earlier.

    In Australia Unemployment rate fell to 6.0% in May the lowest level in 12 months. The number of people with jobs rose by 42K to 11.76 million in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

    Crude Oil is down to $60.30 because of a stronger dollar and amid uncertainty in Greece.

    Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1179.25 while Silver is weak at 15.91

    12th June 2015 – 09:10hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis – 15th June, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    Fears of Greek Default Rise after talks break down



    On Sunday night talks between Greek ministers and its European creditors collapsed after a new economic reform proposal submitted by Athens was deemed inadequate to continue negotiations.

    Germany has given a clear warning that Greece could leave the Eurozone as officials were unable to reach out a last-minute deal in Brussels.

    “The shadow of a Greek exit from the Eurozone is becoming increasingly perceptible. Greece’s game theorists are gambling the future of their country and Europe’s too” - German Vice Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel.

    Greece needs to repay €1.6bn to the IMF by June 30 or risk default, and a possible exit from the Euro. It also needs to repay €6.7bn when Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank fall due in July and August this year.

    Greek default and exit from the Euro could trigger some huge moves in the markets and will have a damaging effect on countries that are part of the Eurozone.

    "We want to help Greece and keep it in the euro. However, not just time is running out but also, everywhere in Europe, patience. All over Europe there is a growing sentiment: Enough!" - German Vice Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel.

    Greece is under pressure as it also needs another €1.5 billion to pay public sector wages and pensions and it cannot do so without the bailout funds.

    The Greek government is blaming its European creditors and IMF who financed its 240 billion Euro bailout program in 2010, for sticking with demands that are economically senseless and politically unacceptable to the Greek citizens.

    Manufacturing industry in the Euro zone rebounded by 0.1% in April lower than analyst expectations of a 0.4% gain. Largest contribution came in from Germany and France. A new report from the World Bank forecasts the Euro area's GDP to increase by 1.5% this year.

    US Producer Prices rose to 0.5% in May indicating signs of an economic recovery as the world's biggest economy is getting back on track.

    In Japan Industrial output rose by 1.2% in April while exports climbed to 0.6% supported by a weaker Yen.

    "There's a large majority of bond investors who think the next move by the Bank of Japan is going to be more easing" - Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co.

    Crude Oil is down to $59.51 on concerns over a global oversupply versus the demand.

    Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1174.30 while Silver is weak at 15.87

    15th June 2015 – 10:11hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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    Daily Market Analysis – 16th June, 2015
    By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

    RBA expects Australian Dollar to Drop Further



    Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its June monthly meeting. RBA stated "It was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged and to assess information on economic and financial conditions as it become available".

    "A lower exchange rate would have an immediate beneficial effect on some sectors such as tourism. It would need to be lower for a sustained period to have a significant effect on large investment decisions in other trade-exposed sectors" - Reserve Bank of Australia.

    “The board’s assessment was that the stance of monetary policy should be accommodative. Output growth had continued at a below-trend pace over the past year and would remain a little below trend in the period ahead before picking up to around trend in the latter part of 2016" - Reserve Bank of Australia.

    "The current level of the exchange rate, particularly on a trade-weighted basis, continued to offer less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy. A further depreciation therefore seemed both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in commodity prices over the past year" - Reserve Bank of Australia.

    AUDUSD is trading lower in the European trading session at 0.7728 following the release of the RBA minutes.

    In Greece there is no visible progress in the bailout negotiations with its European partners. Risks of a Greek default and a possible exit from the Euro are running high.

    If Greece is unable to reach a deal with its European creditors it could become bankrupt and leave the Eurozone. Major concern for Banks in Greece is that deposit outflows are gathering pace with another €400 million being withdrawn yesterday.

    Failing to keep Greece in the Euro after years of negotiations and emergency bailouts of €240bn could mark a blow to the official currency of the 19 member nations.

    In Germany Consumer Price Inflation rose to 0.1% last month according to a report released from the Federal Statistical Office.

    Switzerland's Producer and Import prices declined 6% YoY basis in May according to the Federal Statistical Office. Swiss retail sales rebounded to a growth of 1.6% in April, after a fall of 2.4% in the previous month.

    Crude Oil is down to $60.06 on concerns over global supplies.

    Gold is trading steady in the Europe at 1182.64 while Silver is weak at 16.02

    16th June 2015 – 09:46hrs GMT

    For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

    Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
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