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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #251

    Default USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 4, 2017

    The USD/JPY pair traded just within the reaches of its six-week high as the Fed refused to remove the possibility of a June rate hike, although the country’s economic growth weakened during the previous quarter. The Fed chose to maintain its current interest rates and had highlighted the positive outlook for the labor market during its two-day meeting, which could possibly be an indicator that at least two more interest rate hikes are scheduled to be carried out within the year. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous trading session at 112.759 points after increasing by +0.69% or 0.0770 points.

    The current Fed statement and the previous statement do not have any stark contrasts except for the central bank choosing to ignore the GDP data this time. The futures markets are now pricing in a 93% probability that the Fed will be implementing an interest rate hike this coming June. The next FOMC meeting is set on June 13-14 which will be followed by a press conference from Janet Yellen. Based from the Fed’s meeting minutes released yesterday, the Fed could possibly raise its interest rates by up to 25 basis points up to three times in a row before the year ends. If this indeed happens, then the US dollar would eventually become a very attractive and a very lucrative investment for market players.

    For today’s session, market volatility will not be expected to to increase since the majority of market players will be saving their energies for the release of the NFP report this Friday.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-usdjpy04-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  2. #252

    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 11, 2017

    The EUR/USD pair continues to exhibit an intermittent trading action, which has been the pair’s dominant price trend ever since the beginning of this week. The market had initially expected the currency pair to start off this week with a bang and consistently exhibit a positive trading stance throughout the week due to Macron’s recent victory in the French polls, but as of now the currency pair is on the backfoot as its bulls have decided to retreat and take out profits in order for them to purchase the EUR/USD pair lower as it continues its correction.

    In addition to the EUR/USD pair’s weakness, the greenback has also been strengthening across the board as traders are now about to conclude their June rate hike pricing. All of these factors has caused the EUR/USD pair to exhibit corrections at under 1.0900 points. However, during the past two days, the currency pair has been either ranging and consolidating or exhibiting a choppy price action, which is an indication that the market is attempting to create its own base. The currency pair is expected to create a base for another bullish attempt as the after-effects of the most recent rate hike is now losing its relevance and the improvements in the EU economy is now starting to become more evident in the market.

    For today’s session, there are no major news releases from the EU although the US economy will be releasing its unemployment claims and PPI data, although these are not expected to make a significant dent in the current status of the currency pair. The EUR/USD pair can be safely expected to remain its choppy action at the 1.0850 trading range throughout the day.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  3. #253

    Default USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 16, 2017

    The USD/JPY pair experienced a turnaround during yesterday’s trading session after a sudden high demand for high-risk assets manifested during the earlier parts of the Monday session. The JPY was initially boosted by flight-to-safety buys but immediately disappeared as market investors chose to shift their focus to the surge in US equity markets. The USD/JPY pair closed down yesterday’s session at 113.787 points after increasing by +0.41% or 0.464 points.

    Investors were generally worried with regards to Trump’s unexpected firing of FBI Director James Comey, the cyber-attack which made headlines last Friday, and the ballistic missile launch from the DPRK. The currency pair then began to hit rock-bottom after traders were practically unresponsive to these recent developments. This price action from the USD/JPY shows that investors might have become somewhat oblivious to these said developments. In fact, the cyber-attack was able to benefit the market after tech giants such as Cisco posted gains following the said online attacks.

    For today’s trading session, investors will be waiting for the release of industrial production data, mortgage delinquencies data, building permits, capacity utilization data, and housing starts data from the US economy. If this specific set of data comes out as a market disappointment, then the chance of the Fed implementing more rate hikes in the future might be lessened, although the June rate hike has been pretty much priced in by the market already. In any case, this could also cause the US dollar to drop further in value.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-usdjpy16-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  4. #254

    Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 17, 2017

    The sterling pound’s bulls experienced a very harrowing trading day yesterday after the GBP/USD pair was unable to make any significant progress even after all the other major currency pairs were able to take advantage of the greenback going on backfoot. The cable pair remained within a very limited trading range and was unable to even advance towards its range highs, much less surpass this particular range. Several geopolitical issues has caused the dollar to drop, however, the GBP/USD pair did not have enough fuel for it to actually gain from the dollar losses.

    The US housing data fell short of initial market expectations, and this proved to be somewhat damaging for the interest rate bulls who had already priced in the possibility of a June rate hike from the Fed. However, the market was more affected by news that Trump had apparently leaked top-secret information to the Russian government straight from the Oval Office, in addition to reports that Trump has apparently been caught dipping his fingers into a certain continuing investigation. These series of events triggered a massive dollar selloff, and while other major currencies such as the EUR were able to make use of this particular development, the sterling pound barely moved from its original position. The GBP/USD pair only slightly advanced from 1.2900 points and is now placed at just under 1.2950 points and does not look like it could induce a rally anytime soon. This is an indicator of just how weak the currency pair as of the moment and it could only be a matter of time before things take a turn for the worse.

    For today’s trading session, there are no expected releases coming from the UK economy although international geopolitical events could possibly dominate the market for today. However, the GBP/USD pair is not expected to exhibit that much volatility given its recent weakness, and the pair should start a rally soon in order to placate any risk of the pair’s current standing taking a turn for the worse.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  5. #255

    Default USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 19, 2017

    The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibit a very steady trading manner during the previous session and seems to be largely unaffected by the currently very high volatility levels in the market. In spite of the recent turmoil affecting the US government and a spike in oil prices, the loonie seems to be unaffected by this and remains trading on both sides of 1.3600 points in a very choppy price action with no indications of a possible change in direction.

    The recent surge in oil prices has kept the USD/CAD pair buoyant, and this is why the currency pair has stayed within the reach of 1.3550 points. The pair’s consolidation is expected to continue until the next few days since oil prices have already increased in the short-term. Meanwhile, the greenback could possibly backfoot across the board since the possibility of a June Fed rate hike has dimmed somewhat. If this indeed happens, then the 1.3550 range will become a very critical region to surpass and until the USD/CAD pair goes past this range, then it can be safe to say that the pair’s uptick is most likely to remain in the short-term. Otherwise, the currency pair could possibly revert to its previous range and could resort to a bearish consolidating price action.

    For today’s session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data and retail sales data, both of which are expected to induce volatility in the pair’s price action.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-usdcad19-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  6. #256

    Default USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 23, 2017

    The USD/CAD pair has been exhibiting a very disappointing price action ever since it was able to test its range highs at 1.3800 points during the start of this month. The currency pair has been suffering from the repercussions brought about by the greenback’s weakness and the strength of the loonie which was mostly due to an oil price surge. This oil price increase was able to cover up the actual occurrences within the Canadian economy and has provided enough leverage for the loonie to advance, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been consistently dropping value during the last two weeks.

    As of the moment, the currency pair is now within a very critical region of 1.3500 points, where it continues to look very weak. The weakness of the greenback has been the dominant market trend as of the moment, with the dollar getting adversely affected by Trump’s political woes, which in turn has affected the US economy as well as its monetary policy. The market had initially priced in a rate hike this coming June, but with the recent slew of dismal events, it looks like the market’s players might have to put off this interest rate hike at least for now. In addition, the rising oil prices has helped the loonie to retain its positive image amidst Canadian banking concerns, wherein the majority of Canadian banks have been given the thumbs-down by ratings agencies. The loonie strength has also helped to offset the concerns surrounding the HCG and the housing sector.

    For today’s session, there are no major news releases coming from both the US and the Canadian economy, although some Fed officials will be making statements today with regards to the US monetary policy. All these are expected to add downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair and cause the pair to test its support levels.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-usdcad23-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  7. #257

    Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 23, 2017

    The GBP/USD pair has still refused to join the tumult caused by other major currencies rallying against the greenback. In addition, the market was wrecked by news of a bombing at Manchester, which killed a total of 19 people and has injured over 50 people in its wake, in what has been confirmed as an all-out terrorist attack. Although the reaction of the sterling pound to this particular news has been somewhat muted, it has certainly caused the GBP/USD pair to drop in value, wherein it is not expected to become bullish since the Manchester bombings has made headlines today.

    The GBP/USD pair started off yesterday’s session a weak note following reports that the UK government might cancel the Brexit negotiations if the EU officials would implement a lot of harsh conditions. These developments are all expected to maintain the downward pressure on the cable pair as the UK economy enters a very critical period next month due to the oncoming snap elections and the Brexit talks immediately after the elections. However, the cable pair did manage to make a slight recovery during the European session, with the pair reverting to 1.3000 and even managed to test 1.3030 points before being met with a lot of selling and correcting towards 1.3000 points following the news of the bombings. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to remain under downward pressure for the duration of today’s sessions.

    For today, there are no major releases coming from the UK economy, while a couple of Fed officials will be making speaking engagements later in the day. Since the recent bombings at Manchester would most likely dominate the international headlines, the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain safely consolidating on both sides of 1.3000 points with bearish undertones.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-usdcad23-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  8. #258

    Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 26, 2017

    The strength of the greenback has been the dominant market trend during the previous trading session. In addition, the bulls of the GBP/USD pair are also having a hard time with regards to keeping the value of the cable pair afloat, which is seen on how the bulls had repeatedly attempted and failed to break through 1.3030 points even though the USD has clearly dropped in value. This development shows just how the bears are slowly gaining the upper hand with regards to taking control of the cable pair.

    But on the bright side, the drop in the cable pair’s value was not as much of a crash as initially expected since the pair’s drop has been somewhat slow and steady. But then again the corrections of the pair is now starting to get more significant, while its reversions are becoming more and more shallow, which is an indication that the pair’s bears are indeed taking over the currency pair. The GBP/USD pair was unable to even reach the 1.3000 range as the greenback starts to regain more strength due to the market re-pricing the interest rate hike next month.

    For today’s trading session, the market is expecting the release of the Preliminary GDP data and the durable goods data from the US, while the British economy is not scheduled to have any economic releases for today. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to remain under pressure for the entirety of today’s trading session.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  9. #259

    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

    It was a market holiday on several parts of the world yesterday, and the absence of market volatility due to the said holidays was felt throughout the market during the previous session as most of the major currency pairs consolidated and traded within a very limited range yesterday. EUR/USD traders had only one thing to look forward to during the duration of yesterday’s session, which is Draghi’s speech wherein he made his usual statements on the lessening of downward pressure on the EU economy, although this had little effect on the EUR/USD pair’s current standing.

    What affected the value of the currency pair was the news that Greece is now prepared to abdicate the following bailout fund if the EU will still be unable to reach middle ground as far as the conditions were concerned. This then caused the EUR/USD pair to correct towards 1.1120 points during the latter part of yesterday’s session. As of the moment, the market is still experiencing very low liquidity levels as the Chinese market remains to be on a holiday, and as such, traders are advised to take all market movements today with a grain of salt. In addition, the market will also be experiencing month-end flows before this week comes to a close, and this is why traders should take it easy in order to prepare themselves for the onslaught of economic data later this week. The Fed rate hike in June is still not fully priced in, and unless the market gets some sort of conclusion with regards to the Fed’s next move, then it will be very hard to determine the short-term price actions of the EUR/USD pair. But the recent correction of the EUR/USD pair should be taken only as a mere correction instead of a full-on trend change as corrections are deemed as normal in every currency pair.

    For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of Germany’s Preliminary CPI data, as well as the PCE data from the US economy. The PCE data will be closely watched as this will indicate whether the Fed will be indeed pushing through with its rate hike or otherwise and could possibly induce a lot of volatility into the market within the day.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusd30-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  10. #260

    Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

    In a sea of otherwise very inactive major currency pairs, the GBP/USD pair seems to be the only pair which has gained significant volatility during yesterday’s trading session. The cable pair shot up by over 40 pips in spite of a market holiday across several locations throughout the world such as the US, UK, and China. The lack of market activity yesterday gave the pair’s traders an opportunity to induce a bounce in the pair although it was unable to offset the 150-pip crash of the cable pair during the session last Friday. In spite of this recent reversal, the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain trading in a very weak manner as a lot of economic factors seem to be going against the sterling pound at least for the time being.

    Members of the ruling political party in Scotland have recently outlined the possibility of a Scottish referendum if ever they get reinstated in the Scottish government. But then again there have been recent rumors swirling around with regards to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, specifically on how the negotiations will pan out once the snap elections in June come to a close. In addition, the results of the recent opinion polls are showing that Theresa May lacked the expected lead in the upcoming snap elections, which puts May in danger since anything less than a landslide victory for the UK PM will make this particular risk of hers in order to establish herself in the international scene a failure. The GBP/USD pair is also currently struggling to surpass 1.3030 points, and all of these factors have turned against the cable pair and has put a significant amount of downward pressure on the pair.

    For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy although the US will be releasing its PCE data, which will be closely monitored by the market as this will be indicating whether the June rate hike will indeed push through or otherwise. If this data disappoints the market, then this will not bade well for the GBP/USD pair.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

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