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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #271

    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017

    The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed.

    The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollarís weakness.

    As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K.

    As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fedís decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdfund-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  2. #272

    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017

    Despite the fact that EUR/USD appeared to be volatile and fluctuates continuously and when we zoom out the trends viewed on the daily scale, we can see that the euro-dollar pair is trading in a quite tight range in the past couple of days.

    Apparently, the pair is bullish but a move over the 1.1450 region a few days ago, correct back towards that level and it trades on top of 1.14 mark as of this writing.

    Failure to move beyond the level 1.1450, despite the weakening of the US dollar previously, should still be considered by the bulls. As they are expectant that the EURUSD will remain to trend upwards when it cleared the resistive region at 1.1430. Yet, thereís no any movement happened and the pair trades under the broken resistance as of this moment.

    As the euro bulls spent more time in managing their move, it provides a greater chance that dollar bullishness may eventuate and then trimmed lower until nothing.

    Janet Yellenís testimony in 2 days did not bring out any hints of hawkishness that disappointed the dollar bulls again yesterday since they somewhat expected that she will support the dollar and give any clues regarding economic growth and the schedule of the next rate increase. The Fed Chair spoke her typical lines without providing any signals and this resulted in a weaker dollar.

    Ultimately, the US CPI and retail sales and other significant data is the second most important set of data next to jobs report. Therefore, it should be monitored closely in order to know if there is some recovery in the employment statistics for these figures could also lead to a recovery. In case that this happens, we will witness a fully recovered US dollar.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusd14-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  3. #273

    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 17, 2017

    The Euro against the U.S. dollar puts its high levels at risk following poor data results on Friday that boosted the pair. The dollar has been negatively positioned in the past few weeks to take advantage of any kind of recovery. The NFP results put a high data keeping hopes up that this would result in a reversal because of the U.S. economic data and anticipated to recover the dollar but it did not happen.

    In the previous week, the dollar has kept a sustained decline but the market is focused on Yellen and late data released on Friday. Yellenís speech was not as expected and she was not concerned with her less hawkish speech which will further place the dollar in a difficult situation. Hence, the dollar bulls will have to rely on the Friday data to appeal for traders to buy since Yellen could not support the dollar. Furthermore, both the retail sales data and the CPI data has failed expectation which has worsened the situation.

    The retail sales came in with weakened growth while the CPI data came in at 0.1% compared to the anticipated value of 0.2% that pulled the dollar growth down and pushed the EUR/USD pair up. A steeper correction level is hoped for but the lackluster growth of the U.S. economic data raises concern and the next rate hike would depend on the next reports. Yet, the next rate increase will most likely not happen in the short-term.

    For today, there is no major news from the Eurozone as well as in the U.S. which in effect, will continue the market sentiment on Friday. Nevertheless, traders should get ready for the week ahead.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusd17-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  4. #274

    Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 19, 2017

    The British currency against the U.S. dollar had a correction during Tuesday session. The pair dropped towards 1.3030 level bringing the trend in a weaker position on Friday after the inflation data came out with negative data.

    The pair is now on a crucial condition which will presumably persist in the upcoming trading sessions. The pair could break above the region to move forward in short-term. In the past few weeks, it is notable that the economic data from the UK did not meet expectations. This opposes the trend by the start of the year when the U.K. data has been impressive and exceeded expectations amid of political and economic problems brought by the Brexit negotiation.

    The BoE has been anxious regarding the monetary policies including rate hikes in the future and the economic data has a vital role in the decision-making process. Hence, negativity in the data would make them be irresolute.

    The GBP/USD pair was able to brush aside issues on weak data and Brexit concerns in the past few weeks due to the low dollar in the market. Moreover, BoE reinforces this and adds more pressure. However, if the dollar steadies, the attention will go back to the BoE and the economic data unless both works side by side. On the other hand, this would be more complicated for the pound bulls.

    For today, there are no major new from Britain or from the United States. Choppiness is anticipated to carry on close to the 1.3050 region since the trend is now in consolidation and ranges.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-gbpusd19-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  5. #275

    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

    Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region.

    In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region.

    As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  6. #276

    Default USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 31, 2017

    The USD/CAD was able to obtain the highly-needed bounce on Thursday, which was previously mentioned since the week started. It is followed by the decline of the pair in the past few weeks because of the strong level in which the pair sits together with the possibility that this region is the buyerís final stand.

    As the strength of the dollar recovered, it helped the pair to soar high and affirmed lot of things in the following days. However, there is already a warning that the downward will be very intact and needed much time to return.

    It is also mentioned that bears will use any bounce from the commodity-linked pair as an opportunity to sell prices highers. Any hints of recovery seen on Friday had plunged conclusively while the USDCAD appeared to be weak as usual.

    The sluggish stance was triggered by the GDP figures of Canada and the United States. But the US data showed a marginally better than expected, while the Thursdayís data from the US prompted the market to have higher expectations from the gross domestic product. On one side, the Canadian GDP came in very strong and able to have another rate increase soon.

    This led to a reversal of the whole trend since yesterday and the pair lies in below the 1.24 level which might become weaker.

    Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases either from US or Canada. Therefore, consolidation is safely expected together with ranging of the dollar which is at disadvantage because of the developments over the White House during weekends.

    Furthermore, it is predicted the USDCAD to remain in pressured area as the markets look forward to a plenty of data expected in the latter part of the week.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  7. #277

    Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017

    The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.

    The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.

    This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.

    The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  8. #278

    Default EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 9, 2017

    The markets may appear to be in a deep coma and traders seems to relax for awhile, however, there is something turned up that triggered their presence. The markets woke up from the slumber because of the recent data but did not cause a lot of movements. On Tuesday, the condition was different and this move built up in the past couple of days.

    The recently released data is the JOLT employment figures which exceed its expectations and further boost the US dollar unexpectedly. This manages the pair to fall near 100 pips as it drops from the 1.18 level above towards the support region at 1.1720.

    It was previously mentioned in the past few days that the 1.1720 support will indicate the time when it will be broken, as we expect for a deeper correction. Hence, this area was able to maintain the price but it seems to be under pressure in the near-term.

    The global risk heightened due to threatening attacks by the North Korea while the United States warns the N.Korea about their possible counterattacks. With this, the gold and Japanese yen strengthened while the prices of other trading instruments were affected.

    The euro-dollar pair rebounded from the 1.1720 mark to return and reach the highs at 1.1780. But this morning, the pair was seen to move in the lows due to an increase of risks worldwide.
    Currently, the EURUSD experience lots of pressure due to investors and traders. The European leaders possibly felt that pinch of a stronger euro.

    Ultimately, there is no major economic news from the eurozone or the US but volatility is predicted since yesterday which would likely dominate the markets this day, keeping the pair in the pressured area.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusd09-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  9. #279

    Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 10, 2017

    The GBP/USD hovered around the tight range of 60 pips after breaking the significant support level at 1.3030. Due to the absence of some economic and fundamental indicators, the Cable was pushed through the consolidation and ranging period.

    The pound-dollar pair remains to be sluggish and attempted to break back the weak support that became the resistance. This was immediately broken by a lot of selling on Wednesday. As of this writing, it currently trades under the 1.3000 mark.

    We donít expect any economic releases from the United Kingdom within this week, as the volatility and further actions needed to complete from last week.

    The Bank of England announced for some growth and British inflation fears. The UK was strained to live with uncertainties due to Brexit procedures while traders should track down upcoming UK economic statistics in order to measure how does Britain deal with the EU exit.
    Due to lack of fundamental and economic drivers in the market, the GBP/USD struggled in the past couple of days and the weakness of the Cable was clearly seen by everyone.

    It is projected that the weakness will continue in the near-term when the British economic data came under renewed focus.

    The United Kingdom was able to manage well in terms of economic indicators, however, the statistics became choppy previously. This triggered concerns about the impact of Brexit which begins to take place.

    Ultimately, the manufacturing data from the United Kingdom was released with bulls that expect for strong results in order to raise the plunging Sterling pound. In addition to it, the US PPI data will be issued and should be watched carefully to assess whether the American data will resume recovering. Moreover, expect higher volatility for the GBPUSD this day.
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

  10. #280

    Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 18, 2017

    The GBP/USD remained trading in a sluggish manner and another attempt to cut through the range lows was seen near the 1.2860 level. However, the Cable was able to survive again but due to a lot of rising attacks, the pair may not hold on too long before it breaks down and the sterling weaken.

    The trading session on Thursday seems very choppy among various major pairs, as the greenbacks drove towards that course and also because of the release of Fedís meeting minutes. The minutes came in slightly dovish which weakened the US dollar and triggered a round of dollar selling following the release. But on Thursday morning until the first half of the day, the USD managed to recover its strength which supported the reversal in the whole trend. This happened after issuing the minutes and the GBPUSD returned to its lows, poised to make a breakthrough.

    Moreover, there are some talks about the resignation of Trumpís staffs and despite these false rumors, the dollar was pushed in the backseat. While the surge in global risk sentiment associated with the terrorist attack in Spain, further dragged the dollar towards the pressured area. With this, the pound-dollar pair recovered a little bit, but the Cable still trades around the lows of the range. Amid strong data from British retail sales, the pound bulls remain hopeless as the sluggish trading will keep on going.

    Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases from the United States or Britain until the end of the day. Hence, consolidation is further expected but the weakening of the dollar was felt across the board. The GBPUSD is projected to be buoyant during the consolidative period in the near term.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-gbpusd18-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative

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