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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #31

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 19, 2016

    The minutes of the RBA’s policy meeting on April 9 was released today, revealing the board’s optimistic outlook on the economy. Although there is a slight hint of downplaying the Aussie dollar, we are yet to see a tough jawboning from Governor Glenn Stevens to balance the AUD’s surging value and the target inflation rate.

    “Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate progress in activity rebalancing towards the non-mining sectors of the economy,” the RBA said.

    A continuous increase in commodity prices can cushion the blow of an ‘overvalued’ AUD. After sliding several pips leading to the minutes’ release, the pair reached a 10-month high of 0.7779. The recovery of oil prices also helped the currency regain losses.

    On the flipside, a snap election in July was confirmed by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull earlier today, casting a shadow on the AUD’s uptrend against the USD.

    Meanwhile, Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren dismissed pessimistic investors, saying that the Fed is likely to raise the rates due to a modest increase in wages. In his speech, Rosengren’s deviates from his usually dovish stance, adding that “rate increases are absolutely appropriate.”

    The pair is drifting just below 78 cents. The exchange rate is currently at 0.7778.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-audusdh419-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  2. #32

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: April 22, 2016

    On Thursday, the central events were the ECB meeting and Mario Draghi's speech. The rate remained unchanged by the regulator at 0%. Draghi stated that he does not also deny a transition to the negative rates. The soft policy will remain until the inflation hits 2%.

    The dissatisfying retail sales publication cause the pound to decrease in opposition to the US dollar which weaken the optimism regarding the strength of the British economy. The total number of retail sales for March was anticipated to lessen by 0.1%, but it was diminished even lower to 1.3%.

    For April, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index reduced and displayed -1.6. Initial Jobless Claims occured at 247,000 contrary to the reported 263,000.

    In spite of lower than expected Trade Balance publication, the yen increased slightly wherein the Balance reached 755 billion contrary to the expected 834,6 billion. While the exports increased from -4.0% y/y to -6.8% y/y, imports heightened from -14.2% y/y to 14.9% y/y. Kuroda's speech about further policy easing if necessary supported the yen as well.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh422-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  3. #33

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: April 27, 2016

    The America filled the economic calendar with its important releases yesterday. For March, the Durable Goods Orders record was issued first wherein it came out at 0.8% in opposition to the report of 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence for April hitted 94.2 wherein the recent value was 94.2 and the report was 96.0. Traders were hoping to have a glimpse of sign about the state of the economy before the Fed release their decision on Wednesday. And this could also have an effect on any further activity of the dollar. Now, investors abstain from opening new positions before the meeting.

    The Eurozone did not have any significant news yesterday. After a solid increase, the EUR/USD pair reduced a bit by the end of the trades.

    Meanwhile, the UK has issued Mortgage Approvals index for March wherein the data came in at 45.1K in opposition to the report of 46.0K. The GBP/USD pair displayed an increase but diminished a bit by the end of the trades.

    The attraction set for the safe assets provoked the buying of yen. The gossips regarding the BoJ who won't implement fresh soft measures also sustained the yen. We are thinking that the regulator will cautiously assess the impact of the running measures furthermore and will implement the new ones only in June. The USD/JPY pair consolidated.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh427-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  4. #34

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: April 29, 2016

    On Wednesday, the dollar were constantly steadfast to other major currencies as a preparation for the last Federal Reserve System political speech. Investors put their attention to the result of the political meeting expecting for any signs about the interest rates modification in June. The Fed left the rates remained at 0.5%.

    In Germany, the Consumer Confidence outstandingly improved as it came at 9.7 in opposition to the recent value of 9.4. The consumers think that the economy of Germany will get better for the next months and look forward to its modest improvement. The EUR/USD stabilized a little.

    Since the market realized that the UK economy gained by 0.4%, the pound ceased in growing together with the expectations of economists, but it slowed down to 0.6% in the recent quarter. In the first quarter, the UK economy grew by 2.1% on annual basis, which is the same with the recent quarter and rather high than the anticipated 2.0%. The GBP/USD pair reduced by the end of the trades.

    Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair heightened by the end of the trades.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh429-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  5. #35

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: May 4, 2016

    Insignificant forecasts has been issued by the USA which is the ISM New York and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism indices wherein the data came in at 48,7 in opposition to the reported 46,6. The stabilization of the price can be viewed already, yet it is too soon to determine whether this is enough for a rate hike. At the next meeting that will take place in June, the decision for the rate hike will come up.

    Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index in Eurozone for March displayed -4.2% wherein the report was -4.3% and the recent value was -4.2%. And for the first time this year, the index heightened. It could be a sign that the growth is impossible to decline for the next months.

    The pound reduced on Tuesday from being on peak for four months when the manufacturing activity of the UK dropped in April for the first time over the past three years wherein the data came in at 49.2 from 51.0 in March contrary to the reported 51.2. The index that has been issued heightened the concerns regarding the probable growth in the second quarter.

    Meanwhile, in the midst of the Constitution Day, the Bank of Japan did not have any activity on Tuesday.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh404-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  6. #36

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: May 11, 2016

    Tuesday, the dynamics of the market was enliven with the help of the calendar of economic events. Job Openings was issued by the US wherein the data came in at 5.757 million contrary to the report of 5.431 million.

    The euro currency heightened a little in opposition with the dollar. The euro zone has made a report about Industrial Production in Germany for March which the data dropped low more than what was expected wherein it came at -1,3% contrary with the expectations of -0,2%. Meanwhile, exports displayed a fast growth showing 1,9% against expectations -0,1%.

    The Trade Balance which has sustained the pound was showed by the United Kingdom. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney apprised the commercial banks and other financial institutions regarding a probable rate cut if ever the UK departs from the European Union.

    The fall of the yen currency is an aftermath of the statement of the Minister of Finance on Monday. If it happens that the yen continues to grow, the regulator is ready to intercede, as stated by the ASO. The Japan Minister of Economy Nobuteru Ishihara stated that after the rally of the yen in the past week, he is nearly observing the financial markets.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh411-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  7. #37

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: May 12, 2016

    Yesterday, in opposition with the US dollar, the major pairs has been rectified. We haven't heard EU stating significant data and the market's volatility was weak. The market was not affected by the British data through the main cross-pair EUR/GBP and most of the trades were unperturbed and smooth.

    The scarcity of drivers helped the UK market to stay still. But the forthcoming referendum can probably become one of the drivers in the future. As stated by Michael Sanders, Bank of England Monetary Committee representative, if Britain favors the exit from EU, the Central Bank will be obliged to heighten the rates to 3.5% by the end of 2017, because the exit out of the EU union will facilitate the slump of the pound and will probably strengthen the inflation.

    Due to the profits taken by the investors, the dollar slumped in opposition with the yen on Wednesday. It was an aftermath of the recent rally gaining a two-week highs and the Japanese speech regarding its preparation for an intercession. Yet, Japan were expected by many investors to refrain from doing any activity to enfeeble the yen before the G7 meeting.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh412-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  8. #38

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: May 13, 2016

    The sturdiness of the world economy was left vague even though the dollar was sustained by the restored risk appetite. The Initial Jobless Claims volume was issued by the US wherein the data came in at 294,000 contrary with the expected 270,000. The political event of the day were the statements which came from Rosengren E. and Mester L, the Fed representatives. Mester stated that the risks which relative with the Fed reports should not affect the monetary policy management. While Rosengren proposed that the risks of leaving the rates unmodified seem too inferior for a long term of time.

    The Germany issued the Wholesale Price Index wherein the data came in at 0,3% m/m in opposition with the expected 0,2% m/m while the Eurozone issued Industrial Production wherein the data came in at -0.8% m/m contrary with the expected 0.1% m/m.

    The significant event of the day was the Bank of England meeting. The rate was remained unmodified by the regulator at 0.5%. At the same time, the inflation report of the Central Bank became the center of attraction. We hope that the growth in assessment of the inflation in the present year could help the pound to rise and counterbalance concerns about the cost of lending decrease. The Central Banks anticipates the inflation to restore at 0.2%.

    In the midst of short positions closing, the dollar still managed to increased in opposition to yen. However, the US currency was still under pressure caused by the vagueness of probable increase in the global market.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh413-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  9. #39

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: May 17, 2016

    Earlier on Monday, the dollar has stabilized as the sturdy US reports, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment, reduced the investor's concerns regarding the development in the economy. The positive data also enliven the expectations that the Fed may brought up the interest rates as soon as possible contrary with what is expected. But later on, the dollar dropped to its low.

    The Monday trading was frail with inferior volatility amidst the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France refrain from working as they celebrate the Holy Spirit on Monday. We have not heard any significant report from the UK.

    Meanwhile, the previous gains of yen in opposition with the dollar was lost. The reason of its fall was because of the unsatisfying Chinese economic forecasts.

    The center of our attraction this week would be the Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the forecast of the Fed, Consumer Prices and the Industrial Production in the Us.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh417-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


  10. #40

    Lightbulb Fundamental Analysis: May 18, 2016

    We heard a lot of economic news on Tuesday, US data being the main driver of the day. The States has given the report of Core Consumer Price Index to the public wherein the data came in at 0,2% which occur simultaneously with the report and also the Industrial Production which reached 0,7% against the reported 0,3%. The Federal Reserve representatives, Williams and Lockhart gave their statements. The idea of raising the rates twice or thrice this year was supported by Williams. Meanwhile, Lockhart stated that the negative rates scenario was not intended.

    As for the Eurozone, it only published their positive Trade Balance for March wherein the data came in at 28.6 billion against the report of 22.5 billion.

    Since September last year, the inflation in the UK decelerated in April for the first time which also caused the pound to lessen its gains contrary with the dollar. After increasing by 0,5% in March, the Retail Price Index grew by 0,3% y/y. The inflation was expected to stay at 0,5% by the traders, but the British inflation has been low from the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.

    In March, the Japanese Industrial Production aggressively increased wherein the data came in at 3,8% against the previous 3,6%. While the Capacity Utilization grew from -5,4% to 3,2% in March. But still these statistics could not support the yen.
    Attached Images Attached Images Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart-eurusdh418-png 
    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative


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