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Thread: Forex news from InstaForex

  1. #71
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    Research: Eur/usd - Trading Strategy, Trigger Points, and Support and Resistance Levels

    RBS has given the following trading strategy, trigger points, and support and resistance levels:
    TRADING STRATEGY: Longer term longs; stop below the neckline at 1.3650 target 1.4099 onto 1.4200 (spot 1.3778)
    TRIGGER POINTS:
    1.3873 - where the market looked toppy around the middle of September and where the 61.8% retracement falls from the previous range.
    1.4099 - My (analyst) initial objective from this pattern and the 38.2% of this new found range from the retracements
    1.3907 - a 50% retracement from the rally at the beginning of the year at 1.2874 to the high at 1.4940.
    SUPPORT LEVELS: 1.3799, 1.3700
    RESISTANCE LEVELS: 1.3907, 1.4099
    -A strong close to the week, given that risk sentiment tends to suffer a sudden bout of fear as the weekly close nears, this didn't happen last Friday and the EUR closed up near the highs. The dominant technical feature is the inverse head and shoulders pattern with a target up at 1.4099 possibly 1.4200 with a stop currently positioned at 1.3650 this can be moved up to 1.3750 if required.

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  2. #72
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    EBRD Cuts Growth Forecast For Central & Eastern Europe

    The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, EBRD, has lowered the growth forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe, saying that the "protracted" debt crisis in Europe is adversely affecting the region's growth prospects.
    Reports said citing an EBRD statement that the region is expected to expand 3.2 percent in 2012, much slower than the prior estimate of 4.4 percent. The GDP will grow 4.5 percent, compared with the 4.8 percent predicted in July.
    The EBRD revised its 2012 forecast for the central Europe and Baltic region to 1.7 percent from the 3.4 percent predicted in July.
    The bank's estimates are based on a central scenario of a "protracted but ultimately contained" eurozone crisis, reports said.

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    ECB's Trichet Stresses On Need To Amend Treaties To Save Eurozone

    European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said that the treaties must be amended so that the authorities can "impose decisions" on countries that put the stability of the monetary union at risk by not complying with the fiscal rules.
    In an interview to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a transcript of which was published at the central bank's website on Tuesday, Trichet said that it should be possible in future to impose decisions on countries that persist in not complying with the Stability and Growth Pact, thereby putting at risk the stability of Monetary Union.
    "In my view, the Treaties would need to be amended to this end," he told the daily.
    Asked about the conditions that persuaded ECB to intervene in the bond market, Trichet said that there was a delay during the ratification process of the European Financial Stability Facility, which needed approval of all 17 governments.
    Due to this delay, ECB found itself in a situation where it had to intervene in the bond market in order to safeguard the transmission of monetary policy. "We had to act decisively vis-?-vis savers and investors throughout the world."
    "But we never act as a substitute for the governments' responsibility and decisions," he said during the interview.
    Trichet said that new Stability and Growth Pact is much stricter, although not as strict as all intended. The new one is unlikely to fail as the euro area countries have been made painfully aware of the dangers of constant violation. The most important thing for the ECB is to ensure medium and long-term stability, and it cannot use monetary policy to put right the failings of government policies, he told the newspaper.

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    Uk Inflation Likely to fall in 2012 says Broadbent

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    BoE's Broadbentsaid on Thursday that there is possibility of sharp inflation fall in 2012.
    He expresses positivity that the euro zone crisis would be tackled, relieving pressure on the supply of retail credit throughout UK banks.
    He reiterated that Margins in lending will come down and business conditions would improve
    Quotes
    "The headline rate will fall back pretty sharply, especially as we get to the new year and VAT rates fall out of comparisons. Inflation will fall in the first part of the next year,"
    - BoE's Broadbent

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    Thai Export Growth Slows Sharply In September

    Thailand export growth eased more than expected in September, data from the Commerce Ministry showed Friday.
    Export growth eased to 19.1 percent year-on-year in September from 31.1 percent in August. Economists expected the rate of growth to slow to 21 percent.
    Meanwhile, imports grew 41.9 percent compared to 44 percent rise reported in the preceding month. Economists were looking for a 32.6 percent increase.
    The trade balance resulted in a surplus of $238.2 million compared to a deficit of $1.2 billion in the previous month. A year ago, the balance was in a surplus of $3.07 billion.
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    BoE Broadbent Says Monetary Policy Cannot Fully Offset Euro Crisis Fallout

    Monetary policy can offset the fallout from a potential Eurozone burst up "only to some extent," Bank of England policymaker Ben Broadbent told the Financial Times.
    "To some extent, but I think only to some extent," he said in an interview published late on Sunday. The scale of the debt crisis mean that "one cannot offset them."
    Broadbent said the central bank's decision to expand the asset purchase by GBP 75 trillion was not precise.
    Denying that there was any limit to the total amount of quantitative easing the central bank could do, he said "the limit is what the correct policy is."

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    Euro Off Recent Lows Against Dollar And Yen


    The euro recovered from its late Asian session's slide against the dollar and the yen ahead of the European deals on Tuesday as a survey report showed that Germany's consumer confidence is set to rise in November.
    Meanwhile, the euro is also trading higher against the pound and the franc.
    According to a survey carried out by the market research group GfK, the forward looking consumer sentiment index rose unexpectedly to 5.3 for November from 5.2 in October, survey data showed Tuesday. Economists were expecting the index to dip slightly to 5.1 points.
    At present, the euro is worth 0.8714 against the pound, 105.98 against the yen, 1.3927 against the dollar and 1.2277 against the franc.

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    Eurozone Leading Index Drops Further In September: Conference Board


    Eurozone's leading economic index declined further in September, data from a survey by the Conference Board showed Wednesday.
    The leading economic index (LEI) decreased to 105.9 in September from 106.7 in August, which was lower than July's reading of 108.1.
    Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI), which measures the current economic situation, edged up to 103.7 in September from August's reading of 103.6. In July, the reading was 103.4.
    In the six months ended September, the leading index declined 2.6 percent, while the coincident index moved up 0.8 percent, the agency said.
    "The LEI for the Euro Area fell sharply in August on the back of a severe deterioration in business confidence and stock prices which continued in September," Jean-Claude Manini, the Conference Board senior economist for Europe, said. "The sovereign debt crisis and the uncertainty concerning its resolution are beginning to dampen current economic activity and the immediate outlook."

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    EU Banks May Require EUR 106 Billion Under Recapitalization Plan: EBA


    The European banks would be required to raise EUR 106 billion as capital under the new recapitalization plan agreed by EU leaders at yesterday's summit, the European Banking Authority (EBA) said Thursday.
    Under the plan, banks are required to establish a buffer such that the Core Tier 1 capital ratio reaches 9 percent. Banks will be expected to build these buffers by the end of June 2012. The EBA said that it expects to disclose the final capital shortfall by November.
    Spanish banks need EUR 26.2 billion and Italian banks require EUR 14.8 billion in core tier 1 capital, according to EBA. French and German banks must raise EUR 8.84 billion and EUR 1.58 billion respectively, EBA said in a statement.
    Greek banks will need an extra EUR 30 billion of capital, though this was covered by an existing aid program.
    Banks will be required to submit their plans detailing the actions they intend to take to reach the set target to their respective national authorities by the end of 2011. These plans will have to be agreed with National Supervisory Authorities and discussed with the EBA, according to the statement.
    The targets will have to be achieved avoiding excessive deleveraging, while they are expected to withhold dividends and bonuses to attain the target, the statement said.
    The capital needs should be met only with capital of the highest quality. For private instruments, only new issuances of very strong convertible capital will be accepted if in line with strict and standardized criteria to be defined by the EBA, the EU's banks watchdog said.

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    European Economics Preview: French Consumer Spending Data Due


    Consumer spending from France is the only major statistical report due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
    At 2.45 am ET, French consumer spending for September is due. Economists expect spending to fall 0.7 percent annually, following a 0.3 percent rise in August. On a monthly basis, spending is forecast to remain flat.
    Spain's statistical office INE is set to release flash inflation data at 3.00 am ET. The Flash HICP inflation is seen at 2.9 percent in October, down from 3 percent in September. In the meantime, the jobless data is also due.
    Hungary's unemployment figure is also due at 3.00 am. The jobless rate is forecast to fall to 10.7 percent in September from 10.8 percent in August.
    Sweden's retail sales and manufacturing confidence survey reports are due at 3.30 am ET. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3 percent month-on-month, offsetting last month's 0.3 percent fall. Manufacturers' confidence reading is seen at -5 in October, down from -3 in September.
    At 4.00 am ET, Italy's hourly wages data for September is due. It had increased 1.7 percent year-on-year in August. Norway's NAV unemployment figures are also due at the same time.
    The Swiss KOF institute is scheduled to issue leading index at 5.30 am ET. The index is forecast to fall to 1 in October from 1.21 in the prior month.


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