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Thread: Forex news from InstaForex

  1. #831
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    China January Trade Data to Benefit from Holiday Distortion



    China's January trade data is due on 8 February. Notes from Standard Chartered Research says: While global economic momentum remains weak, the later timing of the Lunar New Year (LNY) should help. We expect export growth of 7.5% y/y versus 9.7% prior. Despite the resilient US recovery, demand from the EU and Japan is lagging, and EM demand has been hit by the USD rally and falling commodity prices. The sub-index of new export orders in the official PMI data showed softer external demand in January. We expect import growth to have fallen by 1% y/y, versus -2.4% in December. Sluggish domestic demand and falling commodity prices should continue to weigh on import growth, but the later LNY will likely act as a boost. We expect the trade surplus to remain high at c.USD 48.5bn.

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    Oil Back Up, Usd Back Down



    Another day, another >5% swing in oil prices-this time higher overall. That helped CAD and NOK, but no more so than most other majors, as the biggest theme in FX was broad USD weakness. EUR managed to be the marginal top performer alongside DKK. At least part of that support may have come from central bank flows as the Danish Central Bank cut its deposit rate to -0.75% in defense of pressure on the EURDKK peg. That's the fourth cut this year.

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    Ireland Construction Sector Growth Slows In January



    The growth in the Irish construction sector eased at the beginning of the the year to mark its lowest level in almost one year, as activity and new orders rose at a slower pace, data from a survey by Markit Economics showed Monday. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Mangers' index dropped to 57.1 in January from 63.1 in the previous month. However any reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. This signaled a sharp overall increase in total activity during the month, albeit the weakest since February 2014. Among the three sub categories of construction, commercial activity remained sharp during January despite easing for the third month running. At the same time. housing activity increased at a slowest pace and logged its weakest rise since August 2013. Civil engineering activity rose for the fourth straight month in January. The rate of growth in new orders slowed to the weakest level since August 2013, but remained solid during the month. In contrast to the slowdown of growth in activity and new orders, employment level in the construction sector remained strong and was only slightly weaker than in December, underpinned by Positive expectations regarding workloads in coming months. "The pace of jobs growth eased only slightly and remained strong. Moreover, sentiment ticked up from December levels and was the second-highest in the series history behind the record reached last November, suggesting that firms retain a very positive view of the year-ahead outlook despite an apparent easing in the pace of activity in January," Simon Barry, Chief Economist Republic of Ireland at Ulster Bank, said. On the price front, input prices climbed sharply in January due to the relative weakness of the euro. But this factor outweighed falls in the cost of fuel, thereby preventing a slowdown in the rate of input price inflation.

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    Malaysia Expects Q4 Gdp to have slowed Versus Previous Quarters: Standard Chartered





    Quotes from Standard Chartered Malaysia is due to release Q4-2014 GDP and current account data on 12 February. We expect GDP growth to have slowed to 5.0% y/y from an average 6.1% in the first nine months of the year. This would translate into full-year growth of 5.8%, the fastest since 2010, despite the slowdown towards end-2014. We expect net external demand to have contributed positively to growth, unlike in recent years. Malaysia forecast challenges to growth, particularly in Q1-2015, on lower global oil prices. We expect the current account balance to have narrowed to MYR 6.2bn in Q4 from MYR 7.6bn in Q3.


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    Australia Consumer Confidence Rises In January



    An index measuring consumer confidence in Australia surged in January, the latest survey from Westpac Bank and the Melbourne Institute showed on Wednesday. The index spiked 8.0 percent to a score of 100.7, touching a 13-month high. That follows the 2.4 percent gain in December to 93.2. "This is a much stronger result than we had expected. It represents the first time since February last year that we have seen a majority (albeit miniscule) of optimists over pessimists. It is also the highest level of the Index since January last year," Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans said.

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    Japan Core Machine Orders Jump 8.3% In December



    Core machine orders in Japan climbed 8.3 percent on month in December, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday. That topped expectations for an increase of 2.3 percent following the 1.3 percent gain in November. On a yearly basis, core machine orders surged 11.4 percent - also beating forecasts for an increase of 5.6 percent following the 14.6 percent plummet in the previous month. For the fourth quarter of 2014, core machine orders added just 0.4 percent on quarter. For all of 2014, they gained an annual 4.0 percent.

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    Aud/usd up to 0.7767 As Shorts squeezed on Rba Comments



    Comments coming thick and fast fm Stevens/Kent but not dovish enough

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    Good thread. Keeping us up to date with currency strengths.

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    Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales Fall 1.5% In January



    The total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent on month in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 93,104. That follows the 3.0 percent increase in December. On a yearly basis, sales were up 0.2 percent after falling 1.0 percent in the previous month. By category, sales of other vehicles fell 3.1 percent on month, while sales for passenger vehicles lost 0.6 percent and sales of sports utility vehicles dropped 1.6 percent. By region, the Northern Territory had the largest percentage decrease (12.9 percent) followed by Queensland (4.5 percent) and Victoria (1.3 percent). Tasmania saw the largest increase in sales of 15.4 percent.

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    Boj Likely to Stay Put at the February Meeting



    Notes from Standard Chartered research: We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to stay put at its 17-18 February monetary policy meeting. However, we think the weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP reading highlights the need for further government and BoJ support. We also believe a significant change in its inflation outlook will indicate its next policy move. The rapid drop in domestic prices on lower global oil prices will be the central bank's biggest concern, in our view, although the longer-term impact of oil-price declines will likely be positive. The PPI inflation rate has dropped for three consecutive months since November 2014. We expect core inflation (which excludes fresh food) to fall back into negative territory in the coming months and reach 0-0.5% by end-FY15 (i.e., by March 2016).

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