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Thread: Market update by UWCFX

  1. #31



    Greece again
    sink markets

    The Euro/USD is slightly up trading at 1.3661 this morning on expectations that Germany today shall ratify the next debt tranche to Greece. The upturn in Markets experienced over the last couple of days, came to a quick halt in Europe, US and Asia, on renewed fears for a Greek default and its consequences for the Euro and the world banking system.

    Commodities continued its free fall with dramatic day trading eases in both precious metals and commodities. Oil price fell to NYMEX 79,50 and Brent 103. Silver fell more than 10 % from a Wednesday high on 32,50 down to 29 on intra trade in the US, recovering to 31 this morning.

    The markets are extremely volatile with the smallest news and rumors creating havoc and big swings during daily trading. Till the Greek debt package has been ratified by national parliaments, the most important during this week, markets shall continue to be extremely volatile.

  2. #32



    Better job numbers
    lift US-markets

    The number of jobless claims in the US fall from registered 423 000 to 391 000 during September, injecting some optimism at Wall Street last night. Wall Street rose with 1,21 %. Better forecasts for the US GDP added along with German ratification of the temporary crisis fund for the Euro-countries, EFSF, to a somewhat more positive market sentiment.

    The Euro has stabilized on 1.3561 to USD after yesterday’s rally which saw 1.3628. USD/Yen is 76,56. Oil prices are slightly up with NYMEX 82 and Brent 104,42. Gold stabilizing on 1625. Markets in Asia are mixed with Shanghai trading at lowest numbers seen in 10 years after a dismal last quarter. Commodities continue to fall on negative growth aspects.

    The German willingness to increase state guarantees for the European Stabilization Fund from 123 to 211 Billion Euros, is seen as
    small step on a very long journey. The so called Troika is meeting in Athens to day to consider the effects of the Greek austerity measures. This amid new demonstrations and public frustrations.

    30th September marks the end of a disastrous third quarter in markets with renewed fears of a double dip recession in the world economy along with an intensified sovereign debt crisis in Europe with questions as to the future of the EURO adding increased nervousness and uncertainty. The last couple of days have seen a certain market stability; that might be a token that we are in for a softer sailing at the last remaining months of the year?

  3. #33



    Sell off

    Sell off of shares continued in Asia this morning with Hang Seng dropping 5, 4 %. The sell off came on top a dismal third quarter which saw stocks falling 25 %. October is traditionally one of the worst performing months in stock markets.

    The Euro continues tits slide towards other currencies. EURO/USD trading at 1.3319. Oil prices (NYMEX 78 and Brent 101,85) are trading at lowest levels in one year. The sell off in Asia is due more to foreign investors taking profit and cutting losses elsewhere than weaker fundamentals. Industrial output in China is up in September. Gold is stabilizing on 1630. Silver is also up since last Friday.

    Uncertainty continues to dominate in the EURO-markets. Obama added his worries stating that Eurozone debt crisis clouds the global horizon. EU finance Ministers meet in Luxembourg today amidst growing concern on Greece. No clear solution seems in sight with continued political bickering. The austerity measures are adding to the pain. The Greek GDP is expected to fall 5,5 % in 2011, much steeper than predicted.

    From outside Greece seems on the brink of a social collapse. Demonstrators are crowding the streets, and a new general strike is announced for Tuesday.

    Expect a new volatile week with continued opportunities for traders who read the rends correctly.

  4. #34



    European debt crisis
    spread global panic

    October is living up to its reputation as the worst performing month in financial markets. Monday’s steep falls
    in Asia were followed by Wall Street. Dow Jones dropped 2,4 % to 10 655 with the magic 10 000 limit in sight. Futures for Europe and USA are down after Asia fall for the consecutive day. Oil prices plunge with NYMEX tipping below
    USD 76 and Brent fighting to stay beyond 100 barrel.

    EURO/USD is at 1.3200. The EU-finance ministers failed to give any signals to calm markets after meeting in Luxembourg. This
    has added to the pressure on the Euro. A Greek default is seem to be taken for granted. The visiting TROIKA (representative from the European Central Bank, IMF and EU-commission) has once again stated that Greek austerity measures are lagging behind. The final decision to release the next debt tranche to Greece is postponed to the 17th October meeting with heads of state.

    In the meantime there is no money left in the Greek state coffers and the massive protests against the austerity measures and greedy bankers are continuing in the streets. Protests against bail outs and greedy bankers are not limited to Europe. Wall street witnessed over the week end that 700 protesters were arrested.

    Big US banks as JP Morgan and Bank of America are as heavy debt loaded as its European counterparts. One of the few messages given by EU-ministers of finance, is that creditors must be prepared for taking increased Greek losses. Greek treasury bills are trading on 46 % of face value indicating creditor losses up to 50 %.

    In an atmosphere of volatility and uncertainty Gold is springing back to life up to1671. Another precious metal, silver, is also been given a boost. Among the currencies British pound is under increased pressure GBP/USD at 1,5465.

  5. #35



    Italian downgrade
    adds to market fear

    Moody’s downgrade of Italy has increased volatility prior to opening of markets in Europe. After steep falls Dow Jones and Nasdaq turned around during last hour’s trade and ended up 1,44 and 2,95 % respectively. The EURO/USD corrected down upon the news of the Italian downgrade from 1.3365 to 1.3305. The rally did not influence Asian traders. Hang Seng dropped new 3 %. One share is up for each three falling shares. Copper gained for the first time in six days, but is 35 % down from it’s peak in January.

    Copper is though a sensible indicator on industrial activity and yesterday’s gain might signal that the bottom trend is starting to phase out. Most analysts do, however, agree that the worst is not yet been seen, and that markets still could fall another 10 – 15 %. A lot of wild speculation going on illustrated in Gold trading. Gold fluctuated between 1680 and 1605 during yesterday’s session opening the morning at 1630. Yen is steady towards USD at 76,665. Downward trend in GBP continues.

    Italian SOVEREIGN debt was downgraded from A2 to AA2. Moody’s Investor Service is finding future perspectives for Italy negative with weak economic growth and problems and consequent problems in refinancing their debt. These are problems very similar to those facing Greece and other debt-stricken EU-countries. Before EU is coming up with a credible answer as to how to handle the sovereign debt problems market volatility is going to continue.

  6. #36

    Default 07.10.2011

    Europe's leading central banks
    returned to crisis-fighting mode

    On Thursday, on October, 6th, key stock markets of the European region, as well as U.S. market have finished the trading session in positive territory. Interest rates as it has been predicted were left at former level of 0,5 % and 1,5 % accordingly.

    Investors have complacently apprehended news that the European central bank will support liquidity in bank system by carrying out of two long-term operations on refinancing in October and December. Besides, ECB will start the new program of the repayment of sovereign debt papers for the amount of 40 bil. Euro.

    Following the results of the trading session " index Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 1,68 % and was closed on a level of 11123,30 points, the index of wide market S&P 500 has grown on 1,83 % to level 1164,97 points, and the index of hi-tech companies Nasdaq has risen on 1,88 % to a mark 2506,82 points.

    The price for futures for oil of Light following the results of the auctions on NYMEX has raised on $2,91 or 3,52 % to level of $82,59 for barrel.

    The price for futures for gold following the results of the auctions on COMEX has raised on $11,60 or 0,7 % to value to $1653,20 for ounce.

    On Friday all attention will be chained to the data on a labor market of the USA - to a rate of unemployment and employment in non-agricultural sector. This news will affect the further dynamics of the market and in a case of negative results – we can see new minimums.

  7. #37



    Bulls successively
    keep leadership

    On Friday, on October, 7th, the basic share indicators of the European region have shown mainly growth, having continued a positive tendency of previous days. Investors were satisfied with a positive data from the USA on a labor market, in particular, employment growth in nonagricultural sector in September has increased on 103 000 after increase on 57 000 month before.

    Following the results of the session the indicator of "blue chips" index Dow Jones Industrial Average was closed on a mark of 11103,12 points, the index of wide market S&P 500 on a level of 1155,46 points.

    Quotations of “black gold” this morning moderately rise: North Sea oil costs $104.33 for barrel, the future for oil of mark LIGHT - $83.77 for barrel.

    Both futures for indexes of the USA, and futures for oil are up 1,5 %. Results of a meeting of the federal chancellor of Germany of Angela Merkel and the president of France Nicolas Sarkozy who agreed about working out of the plan of the decision of debt problems of the countries of an euro area (obviously to settle problems of Greece) became a driver for the opening of session. Leaders of Germany and France promised to develop the new plan before summit G20 which will be in the beginning of November, and, it means, that till the end of October there can be encouraging news regarding decision of debt problems.

    Today is a holiday in the USA – Columbus Day - in this connection volatility will decrease together with volumes of the trades. Day of Columbus foretells quiet session.

  8. #38



    Strong rally

    End of last week’s market rally continued on Monday with Dow Jones up 2,97 % and Nasdaq jumping 3,50 %. China Investments Corp has bought stocks in four major banks, creating increased confidence in the Chinese banking sector and initiating a strong rally.

    These steps contributed to the positive market sentiment in Asia. Chinese bank skyrocketed 8 – 10 %. Hang Seng jumped 3,5 %. Asian stock exchanges rose for the fourth consecutive day experiencing their best four day period since 2009 with an increase of 5,9 %. Toki which was closed on Monday saw Nikkei jumping 2 %.

    Statements from Merkel and Sarkozy have likewise been positively received. The leading Western European powers seem willing to transfer necessary funds to a new European emergency unit for sovereign debt and recapitalization of major banks.

    Gold continues up 1679 while other commodities like copper are slightly down. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3640 and USD/Yen at 76,685.
    Exchanges in Europe are expected to open slightly up after rallies in US and Asia.

  9. #39



    Increased volatility
    after Slovakia’s NO

    Tiny Slovakia’s no to bail out for Greece has along with the Senate’s rejection of Obama’s plan for increased jobs, sent new shivers into financial markets questioning economic growth prospects and EURO stability. The giant aluminium producer ALCOA’s disappointing quarterly results injected a new dose of realism into volatile markets. Both Dow Jones and Asian markets ended down after a four day rally.

    The falls in Asia were, however, less than expected due to news on better prices for shipping services. The Chinese Banks continue to rocket after the state investment fund yesterday bought heavily into four ailing banks. The Agricultural Bank of China is up 12 % this morning. Many investors are asking whether Chinese stocks have fallen, too, heavily and are underpriced.

    The Slovakian parliament rejected the proposed changes in the European emergency fund involving major banks and sovereign states. A new government has is in the making. There are, however, certain optimism that the proposed package shall pass Parliament later this week. In the US President Obama has suffered a new defeat on his proposal for increased jobs.

    EURO/USD is remarkably stabile at 1.3632 taken the Slovakian NO into consideration. USD/Yen is 76,715. Oil prices which have increased for one week is slightly lower this morning. NYMEX on 85,50 level and Brent 110 – 111, 10 dollars up from lowest levels a week ago. Gold is steady at 1666.

  10. #40



    Stagnating Chinese
    trade in September

    The Chinese trading figures for September came in weaker than expected. The trade balance show a surplus on 14,51 Billion USD,
    1.8 B USD less than the forecasts with weaker export and import numbers. Inflation is still running high on 6 %. The somewhat disappointing numbers had, however, no influence on Asian stock markets that continued to rally for the 6th consecutive day. The Japanese Nikkei is up more than 1 % after a new strong day for the US-exchanges. DOW is up 0,90 % and Nasdaq 0,84 %.

    Copper and oil prices are slightly weaker in the morning trade with Brent 111, 17. South Korean and Australian currencies are stronger, and the EURO continue to climb against the USD at 1.3796 after reaching 1.3825 in early morning trade. The stronger Euro and the continued stock rally reflects investors belief that the EU-countries shall take quick and decisive action to recapitalize struggling banks and to avoid the Greek debt crisis to contagion further and hit Spain and Italy.

    The speech by EU-Commission President, Jose Barroso, yesterday was seen in this light and as a strong expression of European willingness to take strong action to save ailing Western European banks.

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