Market update by UWCFX
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  1. #61



    European debt fears
    sink Asian markets

    Global markets have awoken to new fear of spreading debt contagion in Europe. After a dumpy session in New York, Asian markets were gripped with fear that the sovereign crisis shall hit more European countries. After a couple of days relief, old aged bankers turned Premiers and politicians in Greece and Italy, proved to have no magic to offer except for continued austerity and clinging to a Euro which more and more observers see as unfit to get Europe out of its deep crisis.

    Markets seem therefore slowly to realize that there is no quick fixes to fundamental flaws in the global economic system. Fear is therefore most likely going to dominate markets , except for short moments of optimism when some good figures are reported. We are in for a continued period of volatility both in currencies and stock exchanges.

    Most focus is still on Europe where Germany and Angela Merkel along with the European Commission are pushing for closer integration as the best medicine to save the Euro and get out of the crisis. Premier Cameron in England has refused this path. Along with other Euro skeptics he is stressing that the Euro is a major cause for the present imbalances

    In Italy Monti is striving to compose a government in an environment of renewed high bond interests. Euro is falling against the USD trading at 1.3593. Oil and gold prices are down while YEN is gaining ground. USD/JPY is at 76,99.

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  2. #62



    Asia lower on
    fear for Italy

    Asian exchanges continued down this morning with Nikkei falling 0,92 % on fear that the sovereign debt crisis in
    Europe is running out of control. In the US both the latest manufacturing and consumption indexes were slightly
    up, creating hopes that the US economy shall avoid a double dip recession. Technology stocks were strong with Nasdaq up 1,09 %.

    USD is strengthened, and Euro/USD fall to its lowest level in 5 weeks trading at 1.3437. USD/JPY stabile at 77.04. Oil prices
    which climbed in US trade are falling back; NYMEX at 98,75 and Brent 111,60. Gold has dipped back to 1767 after reaching 1787
    on Tuesday.

    The Premier designate in Italy has so far not been able to compose his final government. There are rumors that ex-commissioner Monti shall take responsibility also for the Ministry of Finance. Greece is expecting a confidence vote on its new
    government to day. Facing new elections in the nearest days, Spanish bonds raise and are now close to facing the critical 7 % level.

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  3. #63


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  4. #64



    sinks Asia

    The Asian exchanges ended in red for the fourth consecutive day effected by Angela Merkel’s
    resistance against issuance of EURO-bonds and, unwillingness to let ECB (European Central
    Bank) be a lender of last resort.

    At the German-France-Italian summit Merkel stressed that Eurobond establishment shall level out
    national differences in the interest rates on bonds. An immediate result would be higher German
    interest rates. Instead of letting ECB act as lender of last resort, Germany wants changes in the EU-treaty
    which can force highly indebted national states to exercise budget discipline.

    The continued internal quarrel in EU had a negative effect on Asian market. Europe is expected down for the
    ninth day in row. Euro is at at a 8 week low. EURO/USD 1.3332, up from bottom levels on 1.33 in Asia
    trading. Oil is flat; NYMEX 96,50 and Brent 107. Gold struggles at 1685 down 10 dollar since
    start of morning trade. USD is strengthened against JPY at 77.32.

  5. #65



    Asia turns up
    after red week

    Asian stock exchanges were off for a good start of the week after rumors that IMF, the International Monetary Fund, seems prepared to give Italy an emergency credit on 700 Billion Euros. This created along with better sales during the American Thanksgiving at end of last week, a better market sentiment. Nikkei in Japan was up with 1,47 % and Hang Seng raised 2,02 %. The Euro is also strengthened. Euro/USD is up from Fridays lows, trading at 1.3306.

    The possible IMF credit shall give the new Italian premier, Maro Monti, more time to refinance Italy’s huge debt. With increasing talk about a break up of the Euro, these news has injected some optimism in markets which have fallen up to ten consecutive days.

    Oil prices and metals are up during morning’s trade in Asia. Gold trading at 1706 and up 30 dollars since Friday. NYMEX is at 98,40 and Brent 107,50. USD is considerably stronger against yen at 77,7643.

  6. #66



    S&P plays politics prior to EU-summit;

    EURO countries

    On the eve of the EU summit Thursday and Friday the US rating agency Standard and Poor has created new panic in
    the markets by downgrading all members of the EURO including Germany and France. Germany is loosing its triple
    A rating and France is degraded to AA. All EURO-countries are set under immediate economic surveillance. The S&P
    decision would put increased pressure on banks and bigger companies also threatened by downgrading.

    The news came just hours after Sarkozy and Merkel in a joint press conference announced agreement on how to
    tackle the Euro-zone crisis. France and Germany are proposing a revision of the European Treaty to be ratified by
    member states by March 2012. A part of the package is introduction of stronger budget discipline whereby immediate
    sanctions are going to be taken against member countries not following its obligations. Monthly EU- meetings at top level
    is also included and a more effective mechanism for the rescue of troubled sovereign economies.

    The package was well received by the market. Europe and the US rose till S&P spoiled the party in late US-trading. After
    listing impressing gains over the last weeks the Asian exchanges are steeply down. Oil prices are falling as precious
    metals. Gold is falling 40 dollar from inter day high on yesterday.

    The downgrading has put the Euro under increased pressure. Euro/USD is 1.3377. Speculators are watching the
    EURO drama, and it is expected that the EURO shall be under constant attacks for weeks and months to come.
    Japanese Yen is strengthened and trading at 77,76 against the dollar.

  7. #67



    EURO remains firm
    before key summit

    EURO remained firm against the dollar (1.3426) in Wednesday’s morning trade in Asia as investors trimmed
    their holding of positions considering whether to bet on a further decline in the common currency ahead of
    crucial EU-summit on Thursday and Wednesday and European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.

    Market participants are closely watching any developments and new moves with eyes mainly on the
    compromise package worked out between Merkel and Sarkozy indicating a rewriting of the European
    Treaty. The rating agency Standard and Poor shocked markets yesterday with news that it intends to
    downgrade all members of the EURO-zone.

    While most concentration so far has been on Germany and France, Premier Cameron yesterday stated that
    he shall veto any revision of the EU-treaty not in accordance with British interest. This tells
    that the indicated Merkel/Sarkozy proposal by far is a foregone conclusion. Any transfer of power and
    authority to Brussels shall most likely be met with fierce resistance from more nationalistic member

    Australian GDP grew 1,0 % from previous quarter and climbed 2,5 % from a year earlier. 0,8 was expected.
    The better than expected figures supported risk sentiment and benefited higher yield currencies as the Euro.

    A senior dealer at Barclays Bank in Tokyo claimed many investors seem to cover Euro/USD short positions
    and that the ground appears to be firm in the 1,33 segment. In short term there is an upward bias versus
    dollar. Euro/USD will likely continue to be volatile driven by any headlines prior to the EU-summit.

    Oil prices have stabilized over the last 24 hours. Trend towards a stronger Yen continues; USD/JPY at 77,72.
    Gold is trading at 1729 up from yesterday’s low at 1703.

  8. #68



    Short term EURO fate
    hangs on the summit

    The short term fate of the EURO rests to a considerable degree on the outcome of the highly anticipated end of the week meetings
    in the European Central Bank (ECB) and the two days summit of European leaders Thursday and Friday.

    There are strong rumors this morning that ECB shall cut it’s interest rate with at least 50 basic points from today’s
    1.75 % level. This shall allow banks to pledge a wider range of collateral to borrow funds from the central bank and
    to extend the duration of the long term lending facility to two or thee years.

    These eventual measures might be seen as a prelude to the summit and as an effort to avoid a new global banking
    crisis. Normally a cut in the interest rate is seen as negative to a currency, but this is not normal times. Markets
    have factored a 25 bps cut. No action might therefore be seen as negative and lead to a steep fall in the Euro presently
    trading at at 1.3407 versus USD.

    In addition to ECB actions, Markets are expecting that the often fractious EU-group shall come up with a viable
    program necessary to ensure progress in tackling the Euro-zone debt crisis. Merkel and Sarkozy seem to agree on
    stricter budget discipline by transferring national sovereignty to Brussels.

    The overriding challenge, however, remains to find a balance between harsh austerity measures and economic growth. Critics are
    claiming that the proposals deal with the consequences and not the reasons for the crisis giving banks
    closely connected with the political elites a free ride leaving the taxpayers once again to pay for their excesses.

    Stock markets ended flat or in the negative zone yesterday. Futures are down as are markets in Asia. Oil prices striving to keep above the USD 100 level (NYMEX 100,55). Gold is stabile on 138.

  9. #69


    Market update – 09.12.2011

    England blocks
    EU-treaty revision

    After a marathon session running into the early morning hours England blocked Sarkozy-Merkel’s proposal for a new and revised EU-treaty giving the European Commission more decision power on the cost of member states.
    Premier Cameron made it clear the proposed revisions did not give England the necessary guarantees and especially not for its financial services industry.

    Cameron stressed that England is not a part of the Euro-zone, and he sees the inflexibility of the EURO as mainly responsible for the financial crisis. He offers England’s support, but obviously see the EURO-crisis as primarily a problem for continental Europe.

    An intergovernmental agreement between the 17 EURO-members seem in this situation to be the most likely outcome. To avoid the impression that ECB (European Central Bank) is acting as a lender of last resort, 200 Billion Euros is going to be transferred to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to create an extra firewall to bail out EURO-zone countries like Spain and Italy fighting with big budget deficits.

    European leaders tried after the meeting to give this outcome towards a two-tier Europe a positive spin.
    Markets have reacted cautiously. The steep falls in futures seen through the night seem to have stopped for now.
    Euro/USD is flat at 1.3325 while YEN continues to be strengthened versus USD at 77,59.

    Oil prices have fallen more than two dollars on the prospects of increased uncertainty and slower economic growth. Last quarter result for industrial output in China shows that the dramatic growth seen for many years have come to a halt.
    Gold prices which reached 1750 inter day yesterday, have been in free fall at present trading at 1708.

  10. #70


    Market update - 12.12.2011

    Markets calm down:
    Asia opens in blue

    The Asian stock exchanges opened the week up on positive US macro numbers and some
    optimism after last weeks EU summit. “The Michigan Consumer confidence” shows
    growing consumer confidence to future development of US economy.

    MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up 1,2 % with five shares up against one in red. In Japan is the
    Nikkei up 1,2 %. Kospi in South Korea increases 1,48 %. The exception in Asia is Shanghai
    Composites in China down 0,57 %.

    The European Union summit which ended last Friday did not solve any fundamental
    problems connected to the sovereign debt and looming bank crisis, but gave some
    temporary relief which markets seem to have reacted positively to.

    National budgets shall be subject to review by the EU Commission in an effort to
    introduce stricter budgetary discipline. Membership countries which are not behaving
    in accordance with strict rules might be subject to strict sanctions.

    The British Prime Minister David Cameron rejected to support the final agreement
    which might have opened for a revision of the EU-treaty. Any revision of the treaty
    demands unanimous decisions. The proposed drafts are supported by the 17 Euro-members
    and 9 of the other EU-members.

    The EURO/USD is still under pressure this morning at 1.3356. USD/JPY is stabile at
    77,62. Oil prices are stabile; NYMEX close to 99 and Brent trading in the interval
    108 – 109. Gold prices are steeply down trading at 1691.

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