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Thread: Secure Martingale Quarter Trading Idea!?

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    Default Secure Martingale Quarter Trading Idea!?

    Secure Martingale Idea:

    What are the incredients for a secure martingale?

    Martingale Code as well known (factors, pipsteps, etc)
    magic number
    lot size= (at your will)
    stop trading = True/False
    SL= 50 (example) (or equal to security buffer)
    TP= 200 (example) (breakeven)
    TS= 35 (example) (only if we are above the break even line)
    TS enable = true/false
    BreakEven (Secure Profit) = 0.1 fixed (Example, or calc on the complete sequence, incl. with previous loss trades)
    Close previous trades at SL = true/false (I prefer close, no more money is used and/or needed = better equity)
    Parachute (security buffer)= 50 (example 50 pips,or calc on daily average /3 or /4 or /5) needed to calc opening trades
    Quarter trading=true/false
    Option: Time Limits
    Option: LongTrades=True/False, ShortTrades=True/False (trades are fully calculated when we buy or sell = quartercheck, daily average)
    Indi: MACD + RVI (maybe Stoch too) provides Buy/Sell Signals based on TF 15M and 4H (crosscheck)
    ---------------------------------------
    Daily Average Calculation by previuos day 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 240
    Daily Average Code from other indi available:
    int R1=0,R5=0,R10=0,R20=0,R40=0,R60=0,R80=0,R100=0,R12 0=0,R240=0,RAvg=0;
    R1 = (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,1)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,1))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=5;i++)
    R5 = R5 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=10;i++)
    R10 = R10 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=20;i++)
    R20 = R20 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=40;i++)
    R40 = R40 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=60;i++)
    R60 = R60 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=80;i++)
    R80 = R80 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=100;i++)
    R100 = R100 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=120;i++)
    R120 = R120 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;
    for(i=1;i<=240;i++)
    R240 = R240 + (iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i)-iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,i))/Point;


    R5 = R5/5;
    R10 = R10/10;
    R20 = R20/20;
    R40 = R40/40;
    R60 = R60/60;
    R80 = R80/80;
    R100 = R100/100;
    R120 = R120/120;
    R240 = R240/240;

    RAvg = (R1+R5+R10+R20+R40+R60+R80+R100+R120+R240)/10;
    --------------------------------------
    Quarter trading means:
    We have the highest and lowest price from a pair in one year!
    We cut off to four equal pieces:
    Example:
    Highest price = 1000 (year)
    Lowest price = 0 (year)
    We cut off:
    1st quarter range 0-250 pips, bottom quarter, strong buy, higher lot size (1.0)
    2st quarter range 250-500 pips, medium bottom quarter, medium buy, reduced lot size, less risk/reward (0.5)
    3st quarter range 500-750 pips, medium top quarter, medium sell, reduced lot size, less risk/reward (0.5)
    4st quarter range 750-1000 pips, bottom quarter, strong sell, higher lot size (1.0)

    Why quarter check: simple most crashed accounts are based on wrong decisions,
    example: if we current (bid/ask at price level 50) in the 1st quarter (bottom, strong buy)
    EA can only open an BUY sequence and not a sell sequence, because we have an 80% probabilty of higher prices.
    if the price is falling and we buy, then we have a real martingale working, retracement 80% expected
    if the price is rising and we buy, then we have the first winner in the sequence till TP or TS or minimum breakeven, to secure profit
    if the price is falling and we sell, then we have the first winner in the sequence till TP or TS or minimum breakeven, secure profit calculated
    if the price is rising and we sell, then we have a problem, the change we get a new lower low is a 20% chance to make a sell to a winner - maybe but takes longer timer for retracement
    = buy low, sell high!!!! if we in the bottom quarters
    = sell high, buy low!!!! if we in the top quarters

    Calculation for Opening trades and set SL,TP,Break Even,TS:
    - First quarter check! what kind of trade we can open
    - If Daily Average is 151, calc commercial rounded down to 150pips,
    - add parachute = +50 pips = summ of 200 pips (150 average + 50 parachute)
    - dividide summ of 200 through parachute 200/50=4 = max 4 trades allowed in sequence
    - set SL 50 for each trade in sequence/ could be calculated from parachute/ or fixed
    - set TP to 200 pips (fixed, minimum breakeven, above TS till TP is reached)
    - set secure profit to break even of sequence, example: (1st loss -50 (0.1), 2nd loss - 100 (0.2), 3rd loss -200 (0.4)= sum break even:
    to 43.75 pips (rounded to 45pips= breakeven) at 4th trade with 0.8 lot size
    - TS is calculated calculated from 45-200pips, (breakeven is 45pips at lot size 0.8)!

    Well, we know, martingale have no sensibility to the right SL, lot size, trade direction, where the current price is, ranging or trending markets,
    I think with my additions we can make a martingale more sensitive and secure
    - quarter check= dont trade in the wrong direction
    - daily average= sets automated the SL, TP, breakeven and max trades = we cant overtrade!
    - TF is not the big issue, because all values are pre calculated, only indis needs the right time frames (i think crosscheck on 15M and 4H are good,example: both green = buy, booth red = sell)
    - This is my half automated-manual working martingale system, attached a revised statement since 8.2.2009 with quarter trading, only 0.01 lotsize for testing, TF 15M, Profit 90USD, check the DD! (multi with 10 to get good profits and higher DD)

    Please, these are my personal ideas, maybe there are some better out, this is for discussion first! peaceful suggestions welcome :-)
    Maybe funyoo is interested and can invest some time and help, because I'm not a coder

    regards

    IX

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    Thanks for sharing this. I'm still trying to fully digest it, but I like the Quarter concept.

    One "peaceful" observation tho..
    You wrote: "check the DD! (multi with 10 to get good profits and higher DD)"

    Is this possible? In the statement I notice the Floating P/L is -134.55. Wouldn't this figure be *10 also?

    Anyhow, thank you again.
    Last edited by AlisNutrior; 02-22-2009 at 16:25.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlisNutrior View Post
    Thanks for sharing this. I'm still trying to fully digest it, but I like the Quarter concept.

    One "peaceful" observation tho..
    You wrote: "check the DD! (multi with 10 to get good profits and higher DD)"

    Is this possible? In the statement I notice the Floating P/L is -134.55. Wouldn't this figure be *10 also?

    Anyhow, thank you again.
    you are welcome, well it means if you go in with a higher account size and higher lot size on (maybe less) pairs, you will have:
    - less floating, less floating (+)
    - more equity, less pairs (+)
    - maybe more profit (+)
    - less diversification, if less pairs (-)
    - the max draw down, depends an how much pairs you trade = more pairs = more floating, more drawdown, less equity, more diversification = on a 10.000 account, (0.1 lot) you have 1.370 floating and 890 bucks profits, not bad from 8.2 till 21.2.2009...thats why said multi by 10
    - also a little hedging is active

    example: buy EUR/USD (currently bottom quarter) and sell USDCHF (currently top quarter) both to trade with example 1.0 lot size, the syntetic pair EURCHF is currently in medium bottom (buy) quarter and to trade with 0.5 buy lot size (reduced risk) which gives you the intention the market is in the euro zone, which means, the USD will fall and EUR will rise, if the EUR/CHF is in the medium top quarter = (medium sell) you would see, the EUR will fall and the USD will rise

    please note:
    - this is a half-automated trading style with scripts, i have to trade at the same time my bills paying accounts :-)
    - my intention was to show the potencial of this system and maybe some coder is interessted to create a EA
    - personal I trade 24 pairs and less lot size, all pairs with spread till 7, i like diversification it reduces the risk but rises the floating - FLOATING IS NOT A LOSS! :-) its on the way, count the loss trades in my statement, not bad! :-) so I can live with a floating of 13%
    - the main advantage for me are the pre calculated values vor TP, SL and so on, so you dont need to know if ranging or trending overall, further you filter mistakes with quarter trading too - i trade on 4H, but an EA can check and calculate the average on todays with 15M also. Thats why we have so much options
    - and last, this system is beta status, which means i trade this personal with success and is not proofed for the forex traders world, because it needs much more knowledge of forex and we have traders with different knowledge

    well, i know this is a complicated system, maybe no EA can be created.

    regards

    IX
    Last edited by ixbone; 02-22-2009 at 17:14.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ixbone View Post
    - also a little hedging is active

    example: buy EUR/USD (currently bottom quarter) and sell USDCHF (currently top quarter) both to trade with example 1.0 lot size, the syntetic pair EURCHF is currently in medium bottom (buy) quarter and to trade with 0.5 buy lot size (reduced risk) which gives you the intention the market is in the euro zone, which means, the USD will fall and EUR will rise, if the EUR/CHF is in the medium top quarter = (medium sell) you would see, the EUR will fall and the USD will rise
    !! OK, this makes me realize that I was looking at this in a one dimensional way. Now I see that there is more to this than meets the eye.

    Quote Originally Posted by ixbone View Post
    FLOATING IS NOT A LOSS! :-) its on the way, count the loss trades in my statement, not bad!
    Fair enough...

    Quote Originally Posted by ixbone View Post
    well, i know this is a complicated system, maybe no EA can be created.
    I'm no coder but it seems to me that it might be easier to modify an existing EA.
    The EA in this thread is roughly similar, and is showing promising results: Nanningbob 60x90 EA
    Have a look at the screenshot in the second post. The indicator/entry position calculation that this EA uses is different from your Quarter indicator calculation, but it's 'in the same neighborhood'.

    There is no way to know without comparison testing, but at first glance I think I'd be more comfortable using your Quarter indicator calc than the fixed-pips entry position calculation used in the above thread, as the Quarter calc seems like it would be self-adaptive.

    The martingale calculation also differs somewhat, but I think you'll find the EA interesting if you haven't seen it.

    By the way, there are several threads in that forum devoted to different versions of that EA. In one of the threads, I happened across a couple of posts by a fellow who used 10 times the default lotsizes on diversified pairs with good results so far, so you might be on to something ...

    Good luck in your quest!
    Last edited by AlisNutrior; 02-23-2009 at 10:53.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlisNutrior View Post
    !! OK, this makes me realize that I was looking at this in a one dimensional way. Now I see that there is more to this than meets the eye.


    Fair enough...


    I'm no coder but it seems to me that it might be easier to modify an existing EA.
    The EA in this thread is roughly similar, and is showing promising results: Nanningbob 60x90 EA
    Have a look at the screenshot in the second post. The indicator/entry position calculation that this EA uses is different from your Quarter indicator calculation, but it's 'in the same neighborhood'.

    There is no way to know without comparison testing, but at first glance I think I'd be more comfortable using your Quarter indicator calc than the fixed-pips entry position calculation used in the above thread, as the Quarter calc seems like it would be self-adaptive.

    The martingale calculation also differs somewhat, but I think you'll find the EA interesting if you haven't seen it.

    By the way, there are several threads in that forum devoted to different versions of that EA. In one of the threads, I happened across a couple of posts by a fellow who used 10 times the default lotsizes on diversified pairs with good results so far, so you might be on to something ...

    Good luck in your quest!
    Hi,

    yes you are right, I was searching the main forex forums, to build, copy, summarize code from others EA - but no one was nearly good enough, note this EA should be go life, not only for testing, maybe my specifivcations are to high :-)
    At this time, i checked out over 1.500 EA's in the last 3 years, but i can't find any medium to good - if the ea is medium and secure, the profit is low - if the profit is good, the risk is high and sometimes you wiped out-with my manual trading i'm better as the most EA's, constant profit,but 10h a day in front of computer is bad, thats why i'm searching for an ea

    so my result for ea's: only a conservative martingale, combined with good options like quarter trading and so on, will give you constant profits. note i wouldnt be a millionaire in 1 year, but i have to pay bills like everyone :-)

    thanks

    IX

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    Quote Originally Posted by ixbone View Post
    At this time, i checked out over 1.500 EA's in the last 3 years, but i can't find any medium to good - if the ea is medium and secure, the profit is low - if the profit is good, the risk is high and sometimes you wiped out
    I know what you mean...

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    There is nothing wrong with medium to secure and low profit!

    Quote Originally Posted by AlisNutrior View Post
    I know what you mean...

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    Quote Originally Posted by wannaberich View Post
    There is nothing wrong with medium to secure and low profit!
    Nope, nothing wrong with it at all. I fully agree.

    ...It's just that there would be something very right with secure and high profit!

    Back in the MT3 days I saw a system that literally doubled overnight. It later turned out to be a fluke based on coding error + lucky market conditions. And it crashed the account shortly thereafter. And it continued to do so repeatedly.

    But it got me thinkin'... Secure and high profit could be a wonderful thing.

    -----

    BTW - I absolutely applaud Nanning Bob's efforts over there.

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    Agree that Secure and high profit could be a wonderful thing, but that is what we are all looking for, so in the meantime i am very happy with my medium to secure and low profits, that suits me just fine

    Quote Originally Posted by AlisNutrior View Post
    Nope, nothing wrong with it at all. I fully agree.

    ...It's just that there would be something very right with secure and high profit!

    Back in the MT3 days I saw a system that literally doubled overnight. It later turned out to be a fluke based on coding error + lucky market conditions. And it crashed the account shortly thereafter. And it continued to do so repeatedly.

    But it got me thinkin'... Secure and high profit could be a wonderful thing.

    -----

    BTW - I absolutely applaud Nanning Bob's efforts over there.

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