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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

  1. #91
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    20 JUNE 2013: FED STRENGTHENS USD WHILE STOCKS PLUNGE

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The US Federal Reserve (FED) will start to taper its monetary easing program in the second half of 2013 ,and terminate the bond buying completely in the first half of 2014. That was Chairman Ben Bernanke’s message after FED’s meeting yesterday. A termination depends, however, on continued growth, controlled inflation and achievement of FED’s 6.5 % unemployment target. The US economy is moderately growing, but FED see increased downturn risks due to budget cuts, which have weakened growth. The low interest rate policies will continue.

    Markets reacted by sending stocks down. Dow Jones Industrial fell 1.35 %. Nasdaq lost 1.12 %. The Asian indexes plunged on the news. The bond buying program has been the main driver behind this year’s stock rally. A termination invites uncertainty. The Asian-Pacific MSCI-index fell more than 3 %. The Japanese Nikkei was equally hard hit as were Australia, New Zealand and other Asian markets. The downturn in equity markets is most probably going to continue in Europe today.

    FED’s conclusion and Bernanke’s comments don’t come as a big surprise. Over the last few weeks there has been continuous speculation as to when tapering would start. FED seems to be convinced that the US economy is on the right track, but keeps the door open for continued stimulus policies in the worst case scenario. This “exit” from monetary easing shall hardly calm nervous markets which usually overreact to news regarded as negative.

    FED’s decision has strengthened the Dollar in relation to all currencies. EUR/USD has fallen from the 1.34 level to 1.326. Yen has also lost ground and trades at 96.28 Yen to a Dollar. USD/GDP, which lately has traded at around 1.57, plunged to 1.5448. The USD/AUD continues to fall, 0.9250, on new data confirming a slower Chinese growth. Oil prices are down. Brent crude trades at USD 104.69 a barrel, down one-and-a-half Dollars. Gold and commodity prices continue to lose ground.

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    21 JUNE 2013: MARKET COLLAPSE FOLLOWING FED STATEMENT

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The collapse in global equity markets continue. FED’s statement on Wednesday to scale down economic stimulus and terminate the bond-buying program in 2014, has created panic and fear. The fear index reached the peak for the year. In New York the stock exchanges tumbled. The last two months profits were wiped out in two sessions. Dow Jones fell 2.34 % to 14.758 after the European markets were hard hit earlier in the day. In Asia, markets continue to fall dramatically.

    Precious metals and developing countries’ currencies were especially hard hit. Gold prices fell more than 100 Dollars and reached levels unseen in years. Silver was even harder hit and fell 10% in two days trading below USD 20 an ounce. Oil prices quoted in USD fell 2.7 % partly as a result of a stronger Dollar. Brent crude has fallen four Dollars and trades at USD 102 a barrel. Other commodities such as copper, drive further down. Market sentiment is confused and bewildered in the wake of FED’s conditional statement.

    FED’s program of bond-buying has fueled stock market gains since last autumn and created a strong rally taking indexes to new all-time highs. Investors have,for months, been buying on market dips, and limited stocks decline. It is a big question whether this pattern will continue. The money now leaving the equity market seems to be convinced that the past months rally has been artificially created mainly by FED, and consider whether the collapse represents a buying opportunity or a continued trend.

    China’s higher funding Inter bank costs are adding to market’s nervousness in a situation where the Chinese economy is slowing. Chinese stocks dropped 2.8 %. An eventual end to the super-easy US monetary policy have raised concerns that a higher US interest rate will prompt a mass migration out of emerging markets. The Dollar has weakened somewhat against a basket of currencies after its big gains on Thursday. EUR/USD trades at 1.3229 and USD/JPY at 97.66.

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    24 JUNE 2013: FED HAS INVESTORS RUNNING FOR COVER

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Equities and government bonds came under fresh pressure at the end of last week .This development continues this morning where Asian shares fell to a 9-and-a-half month low, as investors worried about China's economic and financial stability simultaneously try to adjust to the prospect of diminishing Federal Reserve support. The Asian Pacific MSCI-index slipped to its lowest level since last September, posting a drop of 4.5 % only last week. US indexes suffered its biggest weekly decline in one year.

    Global markets are fragile with dramatic falls for securities with emerging markets hit especially hard. The US Federal Reserve’s (FED) statement on Wednesday of last week, highlights what little tolerance there is to a shift in policy. In addition to the steep fall in equities, US government bond prices suffered. Yield on 10-year Treasury rose 8 basis points to 2.5 %, the highest level seen since 2011. German Bond yield rose on Friday to 1.73 % after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that FED was preparing for a scale back – or “taper” – its monthly asset buying of USD 85 billion a month and terminate this program in the first half of 2014.

    The latest rise in treasury yields added impetus to the Dollar which was the big winner last week. EUR/USD continues to fall and trades at 1.3109 in early Asian trade with USD/JPY at 97.66. In China, money mark rates remained volatile keeping investors in a jittery state about Chinese authorities intentions. The recent spike in market rates compounds fears of a sharper than expected slowdown in the Chinese economy. Chinese shares led by the banks continue their downward spiral.

    Commodities, with precious metals in particular, were hardest hit by the market volatility. Gold returned to 2010 levels after dropping below USD 1300, trading at 1285. Gold is now more than 30 % below the nominal all-time high of USD 1921. Silver prices fell 8.5 % below USD 20 an ounce. The Euro lost 1.7 % in relation to dollar last week. Euro short positions were, however, aggressively cut, suggesting that traders expect a quick correction. The steep fall seen in the Australian Dollar, which, since March, has lost 17 % against the common currency, might also indicate a rebound.

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    25 JUNE 2013: DOLLAR STRENGTHENS WITH SHARES FALLING

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Global stocks continued to fall steeply on Monday after the trading week started with new lack luster sessions in Asia. Shares declined heavily in Europe and Dow Jones Industrial lost 0.94% adding to the 2% fall last week. Materials, industrials and financial stocks led by Bank of America ended in deep red, negative territory.

    The technology heavy Nasdaq declined 1.04%. Equity markets regained some ground in the last half of the session, but the onslaught on stocks seems to be by no way over. Most of the gains after the last half years stock rally have been wiped out after the US Federal Reserve, FED, last Wednesday announced an end to the FED bond buying program of USD 85 billion monthly.

    This monetary easing program has given stock markets added liquidity and taken them to new record highs. Capital has been pumped into the more risky emerging markets, which also have seen successful bond issues by in weak economies as Rwanda and Honduras. FED’s announcement has created panic like reactions and led to a flow of capital out of emerging markets and big declines in their currencies.

    The last four days developments have grossly strengthened the USD. The DXY-index, a basket of currencies weighed against the Dollar, is at its highest level since June last year. A more optimistic business outlook from Germany has kept EUR/USD steady above 1.31. A decline below 1.3072 will, however, imply a strong bearish signal.

    USD/JPY has also kept steady over the last 24 hours trading just below 98 Yen to a Dollar. The Australian Dollar has recovered 0.5% from the 33 month low following the bad financial news from China yesterday morning. The Aussie Dollar is extremely volatile to any changes in China. Precious metals continue to be under strong pressure set for new lows. The same goes for oil in spite of the tense situation in the Middle East.

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    26 JUNE 2013: US DATA LIFTS STOCKS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Strong manufacturing and housing data lifted the US equity markets after several losing sessions following the meeting in the Federal Reserve (FED) and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement last Wednesday. Global markets have since been in turmoil on the prospect of a tapering in the USD 85 billion monthly bond buying program, which have fed stocks with liquidity and created what many see as an artificial rally. Uncertainty as to whether monetary easing will continue, has in two weeks wiped out most of these gains.

    The economic data presented yesterday gave strong arguments to those arguing that the US economy is back on the right track and the 6.5% unemployment target set by FED, is within reach. Realizing the heavy waves last week’s statement has created, FED representatives were, on Wednesday, eagerly playing down the likelihood for a quick end to monetary easing, stressing the many uncertainties and FED’s conditions for a termination.

    These efforts were, to a certain degree, undermined by better than seven years housing figures. Greater demands for capital goods such as cars and aircrafts point in the same direction. The positive numbers had Dow Jones turn sharply up after four dismal losing sessions. Dow ended 0.65 % up at 14 754, still far from the benchmark 15 000. Nasdaq also gained ground and added 0.5 %. The European markets ended in positive territory after big losses since last week.

    The Dollar is the big winner of the FED statement. It gained new ground after the housing data was published, but fell somewhat back. EUR/USD which started on a good note on 1.3235 dipped at a point below the resistance level on 1.3172 which represents the last 200 days moving average. A fall below that level will indicate that the EURO is in bullish territory. EURO fell as deep as 1.3162, but has since recovered well above 1301,72 to 1.3091.

    The USD/JPY followed a similar trading pattern and stands 97.90. Australian Dollar rebounded strongly while the Chinese Central Bank’s tighter credit conditions towards private lenders conducting a freewheeling policy, sent new shivers through the Chinese stock markets. The losses were, at one point, 5.5 %, but turned back to a relatively modest 0,2 %. While the US economy seems to improve fundamentally, there are big question marks around the world’s second biggest economy . Oil and commodity prices have risen on the back of the new positive data in US.

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    27 JUNE 2013: WEAKER US- GDP LEADS TO STOCK RALLY

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The stock rally in the US continued for a second day yesterday with all the three indexes in positive territory. Dow Jones Industrial jumped 1.02% and Nasdaq added 0.85% after GDP numbers for first quarter results were revised strongly down. Real GDP growth was 2.6 % and not the 3.4 % originally announced. The biggest revision was in consumption figures which had created strong turnaround expectations. When the market realized that these negative figures might lead to prolonged monetary easing, bad news suddenly turned into good.

    The European stock market also demonstrated strength with all major indexes gaining ground with Paris the winner, jumping 2.09 % followed by Germany’s 1.66. Stocks in England and Scandinavia were among other winners. The Chairman of the European Central Bank, ECB, Mario Draghi’s, contributed to the good sentiment. In a statement he stressed that ECB will continue with its accommodating monetary policies. This was interpreted as ECB will continue to buy bonds in weaker EURO zone countries if needed.

    Global markets saw precious metals fall to their lowest levels in 3 years. Gold plunged a new USD 43 to USD 1230 an ounce. Gold analysts predict that the 12000 mark set on the downside is, too, optimistic. A fall to USD 1000 seems more likely now. Silver is following the same pattern and fell yesterday from 19.80 to USD 18.65 an ounce. Oil prices are staying up relatively well with Brent crude trading above USD 101 a barrel.

    The American Dollar has also been the winner during the last 24 hours trading. The DXY, a basket of currencies weighed against the Dollar, reached its highest level in 3 weeks. EUR/USD is under renewed pressure struggling to stay above the 130 level; after plunging through the critical 120 day moving average of 1.3062. The Euro shows all signs to have fallen in a bearish territory. USD/JPY trades steady at 97.80 after the fear for a banking crisis in China seems to be over for now.

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    28 JUNE 2013: STOCK RALLY CONTINUES ON LUKEWARM GROWTH

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Lower than expected consumer spending; only 9000 fewer unemployed applicants for benefits last week, point together to a more lukewarm growth in the United States. The numbers published today confirm the impression created by the downgrading yesterday, when US growth was from 3.4 % and adjusted to 2.6 % in the first quarter. Major banks as Berkley, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lowered onThurday their growth prognosis for 2013 substantially down to between 1.4 – 1.7 %. Optimistic forecasts have been as high as 3 %.

    The weaker growth has given strong ammunition to those who don’t want to set any deadline for monetary easing, as suggested by Federal Reserve and Chairman Ben Bernanke two weeks ago. Their statements led to steep falls in global stock markets and eradicated earlier profit. The influential Chairman of the NewYork stock exchange, William Dudley, said on Thursday that attention should be paid to effects of monetary easing and not on artificial deadlines.

    The weaker data, and Dudley’s statement, gave the stock market a strong injection. The rally seen over the last two days continued. Dow Jones again reached the psychological important 15 000 level and traded up 0.89 %. Nasdag equally added 0.94 %. European bourses had another good day after EU finance ministers urged to fight youth unemployment, and took new important steps towards a European bank union. The ministers simultaneously took criticism on the handling of the Cyprus bank crisis and haircutting of private accounts.

    These developments had an immediate impact on the currency market, which is deemed to continue to be volatile. EUR/USD recovered from 1.2999 and traded at 1.3032. It needs a clear and more thorough brake to avoid being stuck in bearish territory. The belief in continued easing also hit the other safe haven currency, JPY. British Pound Sterling, GBP, fell dramatically to 1.52. This is the lowest level seen in 3 weeks. The weaker pound came as a reaction to an adjustment of British economic growth in the first quarter. Growth is much lower than expected.

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    30 JUNE 2013: NEW VOLATILITY EXPECTS MARKETS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The fears for an early termination of Federal Reserve’s (FED) stimulus might be gone for now after the US down revision of growth, and disappointing data on jobless claims at the end of last week. This does not help global markets which are entering July, nervous for new volatility. Hopefully the panic selling of equities witnessed in June has come to an end, but a poll demonstrates that managers have taken substantial capital out of their funds, sitting on the fence with cash waiting for a new development.

    The US stock markets ended in red on Friday with Dow Jones Industrial again dipping below the critical 15 000 benchmark. Global stock markets lost ground in June giving away 1.3 % of the gains in 2013, triggered mainly by several central banks economic stimulus. Hardest hit are the markets in Asia. Japan’s “Abenomics” turned for a short while the Japanese Nikkei seemed to be a success story. The Nikkei, however, suffered serious losses with the strengthening of the YEN on FED’s indication for a possible deadline for their bond buying program.

    It has been a lackluster month for commodities and precious metals. Gold, which for the last fifteen years has been regarded as a strong hedge, has fallen 23% only the last quarter. It recovered nicely on Friday, but this “recovery” might rather be seen as a technical correction after the earlier steep falls. Commodities with copper was also up 1% last week after losing 10% the last quarter. Oil prices have been keeping relatively steady. Brent has been able to stay above the critical USD 100 a barrel.

    The Dollar gained ground against both the Yen and the Euro on Friday. EUR/USD dipped again below 1.30 after breaking through the strong technical resistance represented by the 200 days moving average on 1.3062 earlier in the week. The President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, suggested that it might be necessary to undertake stronger ECB-stimulus to get the Euro zone out of the deep recession as European finance ministers are becoming increasingly worried of the social and economic consequences of an unemployment figure above 25 % in many member countries

    The unemployment among youth is reaching alarming proportions and stands above 50% in most southern European countries. On Friday, Croatia became the last country to join the EU, but the prospects of privatizations leading to more unemployment do not create great enthusiasm. If the EU, based on recession realities, have to take talk on stimulus seriously, that shall immediately have a negative effect on the strength of the Euro. Volatility seems therefore to be the order of the day in July.

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    02 JULY 2013: EUR/USD AND GOLD GAIN ON MANUFACTURING

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Stronger than expected manufacturing data from Europe and Japan yesterday lifted the EUR/USD to 1.3052 up from last week’s low of 1.2983. DXY, the USD index against a basket of currencies, fell 0.2 % while the USD/JPY again sniffed on 100 Yen/Dollar level. For the first time in months there was positive manufacturing data from the Euro zone and England. This created a better market sentiment with increased appetite for risk. Stock exchanges in Europe and the US ended higher.

    The Dow Jones traded close to 15 000 at 14 974 up 0.5 %. The technology heavy Nasdaq added 0.85 %. After falling as low as USD 1180 an ounce Friday, gold gained both yesterday and is up 2.1 % today at 1250. Other commodities such as copper, also recovered. Oil prices got a welcomed boost by the stronger manufacturing. New York crude, NYMEX, jumped above USD 98 a barrel and Brent crude reached USD 103 after trading close to 100 at the end of last week.

    The increased gold prices represent the most interesting development during this week.Triggered by the comments from the Federal Reserve, FED, gold started its slide in earnest in April when FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke, set out a framework for the first time for the US central bank to exit its “quantitative easing”.

    Gold peaked at USD 1250 yesterday. The open question now is whether USD 1180 represents a bottom, and this week’s turn around is a technical correction after the 29.5 % tumble since the 1st of January. Investors shift away from Gold has been dramatic. Fund managers have been selling one fifth of their Gold holding, and the interest for Gold futures and options are the weakest since 2005.

    Some analysts see investor’s positioning so extreme that Gold, in the short term, is unlikely to fall much lower. A sidelong trade is expected. Impacting Gold negatively is weak Asian interest presently. Asians have been the strongest supporters with Gold declining, but this time there is no appetite for buying. The concentration has instead been on the high cost of Gold producing.

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    03 JULY 2013: US-STOCKS DIP IN VOLATILE SESSION

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Stocks in the US dipped Tuesday afternoon on weak trade volumes. The session started in positive territory, with technology and industrial shares gaining after one of the big car manufactures, Ford, presented good sales numbers pointing towards the economic turnaround, witnessed as well by data earlier in the week. In spite of strong car sales in June, markets turned down. Dow ended down well below the 15 00 mark. Continued unrest in Egypt with a military ultimatum to president Mursi, led oil prices higher and boosted the energy sector.

    The low volumes in the equity market were partly due to the forthcoming US Independence day on Thursday.The markets are also closed for trading the second half of Wednesday. Jobless claims are going to be presented on Friday. The number of jobless might be a new important indicator on when the Federal Reserve (FED) is going to start tapering and set a final date for terminating its economic stimulus and ending its bond buying program. Better jobless claims will be seen as an improvement of the US economy, which might lead to an early termination of economic stimulus.

    The US Dollar raised to its highest level against the Japanese Yen since the recent volatility seen in the stock and currency markets, which started with FED’s indication of setting a date for terminating monetary easing two weeks ago. USD/JPY jumped again over the 100 Yen a Dollar mark and reached 100,72. The Dollar index, DXY, where the Dollar is weighed against a basket of currencies, reached the highest level seen in four weeks. The weaker Japanese Yen caused the Nikkei to jump 1.7 %.

    EUR/USD fell 0.7 % at 1.2962, nearly 100 points down from Monday’s high. Copper and other commodity prices were up. Brent crude rose for the third day in a row reaching above USD 104 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, traded close to 100 a barrel. Gold prices, which have jumped over the last two days, fell back to 1242, 10 Dollar down from Monday’s high. The other important precious metal, Silver, fell back as well. Portuguese bonds sank to their lowest level in weeks, when three ministers left the government in protest against the austerity measures.

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