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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

  1. #101
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    04 JULY 2013: OIL PRICES SKYROCKET DUE TO TURMOIL IN EGYPT

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Oil prices moved steadily up yesterday on continued turmoil in the Middle East, and threat of disruptions in the transportation of Oil from the region. NYMEX, New York crude, is up 4%, trading at USD 101 a barrel. Brent crude raised to USD 105.75 after the Egyptian military ousted the elected president Mohammed Morsi, who rejected to give in to the presented ultimatum to withdraw.The military has taken over power and promised to prepare for new presidential elections.

    The military coup came after thorough demonstrations and clashes between supporters and opponents of Morsi. President Morsi’s opponents welcomed the military intervention. The unrest in Egypt threatens the stability in the whole Middle East; Egypt being the most populous state in the region with borders also to Israel. Gold and Silver, which have fallen steeply over the last few months, also gained on the development, as did the Japanese Ten. USD/JPY trades at 99.93. EUR/USD is 1.3003.

    Attention in the US was focused on the jobless claims which came in 5000 lower than last week. Unemployment data for June is slightly better than in May, falling to 7.5 %. This is still far from the 6.5% the US Federal Reserve (FED) has set as a target for ending quantitative easing. Presented numbers on trade and services were disappointing, and do not point to a quick turnaround in the American economy.

    Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended up, after a short and volatile session before closing for the 4th of July Independence celebrations. Dow was 12 points short of breaking the 15 000 level. European markets were weak after the last turmoil in Portugal, where several ministers including the influential Minister of Foreign Affairs, have threatened to leave the government. The political crisis has revived fears of a Portuguese debt crisis. In Greece there are questions whether the Samaras-Government will be able to live up to the obligations set by the troika, which put pressure on European equity markets and indeed the Euro.

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    05 JULY 2013: DRAGHI’S COMMENTS BOOSTED STOCK INDEXES TO RECORD GROWTH

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Yesterday we could see rapid growth on the world markets after the meeting of the European Central Bank, Bank of England and speech of Mr. Draghi. Increase in the main world stock indexes had more emotional character rather than fundamental. In general, the head of the European Central Bank once again calmed investors with verbal interventions and there were no steps undertaken. Mr. Draghi once again confirmed preservation of stimulating policy of the European Central Bank, and let investors know that interest rates are going to be kept on a low level for a long time. In comparison, more or less the head of the European Central Bank gives us the same comments and information that we consequently hear from Mr. Bernanke.

    Despite the fact that the trading session in the USA has been closed, the leading stock exchanges finished the trading session on Thursday in positive territory. The index of the London stock exchange FTSE 100 grew by 2.9%, the index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40 added 3.08%, the index of the Frankfurt stock exchange DAX rose by 2.11%.

    As for the currency market, we saw steep falls in many currencies in relation to the American Dollar. EUR/USD from the level of 1.3008 dropped down to a minimum on 1.2882, this morning - pair is traded on a level of 1.2897.

    Great British Pound was the first one to start correction in relation to the Dollar, having vigorously reacted to hints from the Bank of England. The monetary policy, as expected, remained the same, however Mark Carney didn't want to waste time and already made changes in tactics of communication with the market. If earlier the accompanying statement, in case of an invariable course, wasn't published, now decisions and actions of the bank will be more transparent. Within comments it was noted that despite positive signs of economic recovery, in comparison to historical measures – it still remains weak. This means that the most probable level of an interest rate will not be defined by the current signals. These words immediately sent pair GBP /USD down: from level of opening at 1.5277 to a minimum of 1.5054, having finished the trading session only 15 points higher. This morning, the Pound continues to bargain next to the level of 1.5000.

    Today investors are going to wait for unemployment figures from the United States, which will have an influence on the markets and will help to decide on further direction of the markets.

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    08 JULY 2013: STRONGER LABOR DATA STRENGTHENS USD

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    US stocks jumped one percent on Friday, while the Dollar rallied, and interest rate on debt treasury bills fell as the US labor market presented stronger data than expected, showing that the US economy is on a more solid footing. The data will be a strong argument for the Federal Reserve (FED) to start tapering the bond buying program already in September. Non-farm payrolls increased with 196 000 in June. Unemployment stays at 7.6 %. FEDs official target for a healthy unemployment bill stays at 6.5 %.

    The Dollar index, DXY, against a basket of major currencies is strongly up. EUR/USD traded Friday on 1.2831, the lowest level seen in months. The trend towards a weaker Euro is most likely to continue this week, with USD/JPY moving towards an earlier peak on 103 Yen against the Dollar. Commodities listed in USD are falling with the strength of the Dollar. Precious metals are again hard hit with Gold falling 2.1 %.

    EU finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today to decide on releasing a third bailout and rescue package on 8.1 billion Euro for Greece. The troika of lenders; The European Central Bank (ECB), EU-commission and International Monetary Fund, IMF, have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the slow implementation of the 12 500 reduction of civil servants. The troika has been under fire for the austerity measures undertaken against Greece. An IMF representative admitted lately that their policies had aggravated the problems in the Greek economy.

    The EU Commission has flatly rejected these claims, and the Finance commissioner for EU, Olli Rehn, stated that Greece has to intensify its reform commitment. The Samara's three party government, consisting of the EK right party, social democratic PASOK, and left of center party, has steadily lost authority, threatening Greece with new elections and an unpredictable outcome most likely strengthening the socialist left and the far right Golden Dawn party. Both parties reject continued austerity measures.

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    09 JULY 2013: USD CORRECTS DOWN REACHING 3-YR HIGH

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    US Dollar corrected down 0.3 % after the DXY: a basket of major currencies weighed against USD, reached a 3-year high yesterday. EUR/USD traded at 1.2876 after dipping close to 1.28. USD lost to JPY with 100.93 Japanese Yen paid for a Dollar. Oil prices, which jumped, after new clashes over the weekend between supporters of President Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood and the military forces, left 17 dead in Cairo's streets. Brent lost 29 cents to USD 107.43 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, stood at 103.14. Gold gained 20 Dollars to 1228 on a weaker Dollar.

    Alcoa, the alloy giant, was, as always, the first company to present quarterly results. The report was slightly better than analysts expected. Global stock markets were strong on Monday with European and US indexes posting gains. Asia started the week in red Monday morning after credit worries in China. Nikkei was the only Asian exchange gaining ground on a weaker Yen boosting exports. Also on Monday a US advisory company recommended shareholders to accept Michael Dell’s USD 24.4 Billion buyout offer.

    In Brussels, Greece secured a Euro 8.7 Billion lifeline. The Samara's government came under heavy pressure before yesterday’s Minister of Finance meeting. The new bailout tranche was given on the condition that Greece deliver on its promise to cut 12 500 jobs in the public sector and continue vigorous austerity efforts. Bailout funds might be withheld if these conditions are not met.

    In a situation where the US Federal Reserve (FED) due to slightly better data, probably might start tapering monetary easing already in September, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) have stated willingness to go in the opposite direction and follow FED’s earlier example to ease monetary policies and actively use the printing press. This has put the British pound (GBP) under strong pressure. USD/GBP has fallen below 1.50 trading at 1.4955, the lowest level seen in a long time.

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    10 JULY 2013: CHINA FACES “GRIM” TRADE OUTLOOK

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Both import and export figures in the second-largest economy in the world fell in June. Exports fell 3.1% from the previous year, while imports dropped 0.7%. Trade figures were expected to rise. The fall in import and export follow a government crackdown on the use of fake invoicing that had exaggerated exports earlier this year. The figures raise fresh concerns about the slowdown in China and global demand. A spokesman for the Chinese customs authority stressed that China faces stern challenges and “exports in the third quarter look grim”.

    The customs agency said exporters are losing confidence faced with weak overseas demand, rising labor costs and a strong Yuan currency. The Australian Dollar fell immediately in the trade figures, reflecting worries about Chinese demand for Australian commodities, such as iron and coal. In spite of the weaker figures, China had a trade surplus of USD 27.1 billion in June, in line with the USD 27.0 billion forecast. Economic growth in China in 2013 is still expected to be 7.5 %.

    The grim trading figures created expectations that the Chinese Central Bank might ease policy to boost growth. These expectations made Chinese shares rise sharply. The major Chinese index gained 2.2 % on the easing talk. The MSCI-index for Asia Pacific also gained 0.7% boosted as well by Wall Streets optimism for US company earnings. Copper prices added 0.5 % and both Brent crude and the New York NYMEX, trade higher on USD 108 and 104 a barrel respectively.

    Concerns over China pulled the Dollar DXY down from a three-year high against a basket of major currencies. The Dollar fell 0.6% to 100.52 Yen. The stronger Yen impacted the Nikkei index which fell 0.4 %. Investors are betting on further Dollar gains as the US Federal Reserve (FED) prepares to scale back on its USD 85 billion a month stimulus program. The minutes from FED’s June meeting will be published later today, accompanied by a statement from Chairman Ben Bernanke which is expected to give the Dollar a further boost.

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    11 JULY 2013: USD SUFFERS HEAVY LOSSES

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Currency markets turned completely upside down over the last twelve hours, with the Dollar losing heavily towards all major currencies. EUR/USD has gained close to 300 points over the last 24 hours and trades at 1.3136. Japanese Yen (JPY) and British Pound Sterling have posted similar gains against the green back. USD/JPY brushed back through the 100 level and trades at 98.54. USD/GBP, which traded at the 1.47 level at the beginning of the week, stands at 1.5157. The weaker Dollar has caused commodities, oil and precious metals to skyrocket.

    Two factors have impacted the fall in the Dollar. After publishing of US Federal Reserve (FED) minutes for June, Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated the low interest rate policies which impacted the Dollar; FED is in no rush to raise interest rates. The minutes showed disagreements among members when the bond buying program should be terminated. A majority wished to pare down bond purchases in 2013 while other members stressed asset purchasing would be needed in 2014 also.

    What really triggered the fall in the Dollar was a statement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising its assessment of the economy, but cutting the growth and inflation outlooks. The forecast for Japanese inflation in 2014 was put at 0.6 instead of 0.7 percent. Earlier this week the Euro hit a three-month low against the greenback on diverging monetary policy expectations between central banks. The conditions of the US economy would therefore be decisive for the currency pair. Statistics on retail sales and consumer prices due later in the week are going to be closely watched.

    The long term perspective on the Euro is bearish, but it seems likely that EUR/USD might correct higher in the short run. The DXY index, which measures the Dollar against a basket of six other major currencies, stumbled from 84.027 to 82.693; even the embattled Australian Dollar gaining ground. Gold jumped to USD 1286 up 2.2 %. Silver is up 3 %. NYMEX, New York crude, stands at record USD 106 a barrel and Brent trades at USD 108.28.

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    12 JULY 2013: RECORD RUSH ON WALL STREET

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Dow Jones and S&P jumped to an all time high and the technology heavy Nasdaq index reached the highest level since 2000, in the aftermath of the publishing of the US Federal Reserve (FED) minutes and new statements by Chairman Ben Bernanke in Boston yesterday. EUR/USD, which fell to 1.3208 Thursday morning recovered during the day, but dipped back to 1.31 following Bernanke’s strong commitment to keep interest rates at the present low level. It trades at present at 1.3081.

    Bernanke’s speech reiterated that the US economy is volatile. The 7.6 % unemployment is far from FED’s 6.5 % target for the labour market. The jobless claim numbers for last week published yesterday were higher than the previous week and confirm Bernanke’s soberness. The markets interpret his comments as a confirmation that a September tapering of monetary easing is not in the cards. As several FED members stressed in the June Minutes, the bond buying program will continue into 2014. This boosted stock markets and led to termination in stock short positions yesterday.

    In Asia the Asian Pacific MSCI-index lost steam after three winning sessions, ending up only 0.2 % as markets brace for Chinese GDP data early next week. China’s weak foreign trade data for June provide a pessimistic edge to the second quarter estimates, which probably will show that GDP has slowed further. The government’s official forecast on 7.5 % economic growth set for 2013 might prove to be too optimistic.

    After a 24 hour heavy sell off in the Dollar as investors cut bullish positions on Bernanke’s pledge, currency markets are steadier into the last trading day of the week. The Dollar index, DXY, experienced its steepest fall in four years. Some analysts see the fall in the Dollar as a buying opportunity on expectations of a FED autumn tapering on the presumption of US GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters. Oil lost momentum when traders took profit following a three week rally that lifted prices to a 15 month-high. US crude, NYMEX, eased back to USD 105 a barrel reaching 107.45.

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    15 JULY 2013: BETTER CHINESE DATA BOUNCE ASIAN STOCKS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Better than feared Chinese second-quarter economic growth erased early losses in Asia, and boosted the Australian Dollar at the beginning of a new trading week. China’s GDP cooled to 7.5 % from 7.7 % in the same quarter last year. The data were, however, better than expected and investors heaved a sigh of relief. The Asian Pacific, MSCI-index rose 0.4 % after starting the week in negative territory. Other Asian markets were up from 0.3 – 0.9 %. Shanghai added 0.91 %.

    Weaker Chinese export/import figures presented last week caused global markets to shiver with good reason. The key behind the subdued growth and slight GDP turn down is weak exports. But domestic demand has, according to analysts, kept up quite well through the second quarter. There is a downward global risk weighing on the Chinese markets, along with newly imposed stricter credit controls. The downward risks in the Chinese economy have, however, not worsened materially, which the latest data confirm.

    Despite the reversal Asia underperformed compared with the US, their stock peers, hit record closing highs for a second session on Friday, sparked by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s pledge to keep monetary easing for some time. The continuation of a loose US monetary policy weighed significantly on the USD. The DXY index, where Dollar is weighed against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.7 % last week.

    The weaker Dollar helped the Euro recover from last week’s low on 1.2755. It jumped to 1.3208 and trades at 1.3072. The Chinese data helped the long declining Australian Dollar to reach 91.10 after falling below 90 US cents on Friday. Commodities with copper raised 0.4 %. Oil prices are steady with Brent crude trading close to USD 109 a barrel. Precious metals continue the positive trend from last week with gold at USD 1291 and silver USD 20.10 an ounce.

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    16 JULY 2013: WEAKER US-RETAIL PROLONGS TAPERING

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Weaker than expected US retail forecasts presented yesterday, backed the view that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will hold off reducing its bond buying stimulus anytime soon. This had the Asian Pacific MSCI-index to inch another 0.1 %. DXY, the US Dollar index measured against a basket of six major currencies edged lower. EUR/USD is steady at 1.3071, while the Japanese Yen lost ground against the green back at 99.77 Yen a Dollar. The Australian Dollar was slightly stronger as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its monetary policies unchanged.

    FED Chairman Ben Bernanke is going to present on Wednesday the twice-yearly monetary policy report to Congress, giving new clues to FED's thinking on when to start tapering. US stocks were slightly up on Monday with Boeing, up 3.72 % as the winner. Citigroup presented strong quarterly results and the S&P ended higher for the eighth straight day which is the longest streak since mid-January. US retail sales data increased 0.4 %, half the rise economists had forecasted.

    FED has focused on the labour market improvements, to decide when to start tapering monetary easing, but weakness in the consumer sector could indicate broader economic problems and lower US growth expectations. There are no big changes in the currencies picture, but the Yen can face new pressure as the week progresses. Forthcoming elections to the upper Japanese chamber might result in a big victory for Shinzo Abe’s party and give new momentum for aggressive monetary easing.

    The Euro keeps steady, but a slide in German exports, political wrangling over austerity measures in Portugal and opposition leaders in Spain asking for Primes Minister Mariano Rajoy to step down after a financial scandal in his party, create fresh concern as to the further direction of the common currency. Commodities were mixed after the presentation of China’s GDP yesterday. Both New York crude, NYMEX, and Brent are keeping up. Gold is slightly lower at USD 1280 an ounce.

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    17 JULY 2013: WEAK DOLLAR AHEAD OF BERNANKE’S SPEECH

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The Dollar DXY traded at a three-week low, down 0.7% against a basket of six major currencies on Tuesday, on expectations that the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (FED), Ben Bernanke, later today will reiterate FED’s lose monetary policies. Bernanke is due to testify to Congress over the next two days. The Dollar has, over the last 24 hours, lost ground both to the Euro and Japanese Yen. EUR/USD trades at 1.3141 and USD/JPY at 99.37.

    Asian stocks gained in morning trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Sheng index added 0.8 % and Seoul shares in South Korea were up 0.9 %. All the American indexes slightly dipped yesterday after continuous record breaking sessions. Intel was the winner while Coca Cola, Walt Disney and Boeing gave up around 1.5 %. Precious metals have stabilized. Gold was trading at USD 1291. Silver stays steady at USD 20 an ounce. There are small changes in commodities and oil. Brent crude trades at USD 108 a barrel.

    Bernanke’s comments last week concentrated on the need to keep a highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future. That wrong footed investors who had bet on tapering in FED’s bond buying program as soon as September. That led to a sharp fall in the Dollar. Investors are, prior to today’s session, betting on that Bernanke might avoid being too “hawkish” not to talk down stocks.

    Bernanke will once again be faced with a delicate balancing act between assuring and enduring Central Bank support for the US economy with a reminder that the ultra-easy policies cannot last forever. Bernanke set off a brief global sell-off when he outlined plans to reduce the bond-buying. This was balanced with a strong reiteration that the interest rates would be kept at the present low level. More firm indications as to when FED will start tapering, will strengthen the Dollar and weakenen global stock markets.

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