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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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    18 September 2013: FED Meeting Results To Be Announced Today

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Following the results of yesterday's trading session, the world stock markets showed multidirectional dynamics. The American indexes grew within 0.4% and the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 remained less than in 5 points from the maximum recorded on August 2, closing the trading day at level of 1704.76 points. In turn, the European platforms showed negative dynamics. The London FTSE index declined the most, having decreased by 0.8%.

    The statistics presented during the day had positive character overall. Consumer Price Index in Great Britain grew in August for 0.4%, a 0.5% forecast had been predicted. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased in September to 49.6 points, from 42 points the month before.The index reached the maximum level for the last 4 years, having been affected by raised levels of optimistic expectations concerning prospects of the European economy. In addition Consumer Price Index in the USA in August grew by 0.1%, analysts expected an increase of the indicator to 0.2%.

    As for the commodity market, prices for Oil are continuing to decrease, Brent is traded this morning on a level of 108.03$ per barrel losing 0.14%, Light is on the price of 104.87$ per barrel. Gold dipped below the level of 1300.00 and is traded on the price 1298.11$ per troy ounce, losing 0.86%. Silver is down to 0.95% on the price of 21.57$.

    The main event of the day is going to be the announcement of the results of the FED’s meeting, which investors were waiting for, for the last few weeks. Mainly analytics are convinced that the decision on turning off stimulating programs will be the most likely scenario. The American Central Bank will most probably start reducing volumes of the repayment of bonds gradually, no more than $15 billion a month, and will also publish forecasts which will allow the estimation of long-term prospects of the economy of the USA.

    As for the other statistics today, it is worth paying attention to data on the housing market in the USA, and on stocks of Oil and Oil products in the USA.

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    19 September 2013: FED Surprised Markets, Having Rolled Dollar Down

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    FED’s meeting keeping the intrigue till the last moment, extremely surprised investors and shook the currency market. Unexpected inaction of the regulator helped the European currencies to beat the strongest levels of resistance. As a result, EUR/USD finished trading day at the level of 1,3540, and GBP/USD closed day at 1,6150.

    FED declared preservation of the current volumes of stimulation at the level of $85 billion a month and a guarantee of keeping low rates while unemployment remains higher than 6,5% and inflation doesn't exceed 2,5%. Moreover, FRS decreased expectations on gross domestic product growth in the current year from 2,3%-2,6% to 2%-2,3%.

    Stock markets reacted to this surprises with a steady growth, the S&P500 index grew by 1,22% having updated a historical maximum, reaching level of 1725,52. Dow Jones reached level of 15676,94 having added 0,94%, Nasdaq increased for 1,01% - reaching 3783,64 points.

    The most interest development we could see in the commodity market, where FED decision stops fall of the oil prices. Brent this morning is traded on a level of 110,87$ per barrel and Light ads 0,49% bargaining next to the price of 107,81$ per barrel. Prices of precious metals are moving up, with Gold adding 4,23% in one day and reaching level of 1362,91$. Silver increasing for more than 7,00%, going over the level of 23,00$ per troy ounce.

    Today will be presented data on a labor market - level of demands for unemployment benefits can grow again after record-breaking low indicators of last week. EUR/USD currency pair can face problems continuing further increase, due to the political situation in the Eurozone. First, the situation with Berlusconi isn't solved yet, and secondly, fears cause also prospects for elections in Germany which will pass during upcoming weekend. Thus, we don't exclude possibility of correction to the closest level of support which is around level 1,3450. Today from significant events of the European session only the report on retails of Great Britain, where delay of growth rates is expected will be issued.

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    20 September 2013: Index S&P 500 Set Up A New Record

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Thursday, September 19, the American market finished the trading session with a small decrease. During the session the S&P 500 index established a new historical record on a level of 1729.86 points, but due to profit taking, was correcting to lower levels. Moreover, presented favourable macroeconomic statistical data could not motivate investors for further purchases.

    As for statistics, it is worth to note firstly, the jump of the index of business activity of FRB of Philadelphia in September, to 22.3 points, at average expectations of an increase to 10 points, and also a 1.7% increase in sales of houses in the secondary market in August to 5.48 million despite expectations of a decrease to 5.25 million. On the labor market, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits increased to 309 thousand, 330 thousand were predicted.

    Prices of Oil continued to fall after keeping flat after the announcement of FED’s decision. The price for Brent fell to 108.69$ per barrel losing 1.66%, Light is traded on a price of 105.61$ per barrel, having lost 1.32% in one day. Gold and Silver are slightly correcting after huge growth we witnessed yesterday, Gold is traded on a level of 1362.68$ loosing 0.48% and Silver is losing 1.19% falling to 23.01$ per troy ounce.

    As for the currency market, then picture is slightly different from the picture we saw yesterday. The Dollar even managed to become stronger against the British Pound, and restored all losses against the Yen. As a result, EUR/USD finished the trading day around 1.3525, retaining this level this morning, and GBP/USD is trading on a level of 1.6051.

    Friday becomes, perhaps, the most boring day of the current week, as almost all interesting and important events have been seen, analysed and reacted to. Ahead, there is a large number of reports, but in general they have minor importance. The only thing that can really have an effect on the currencies, is the expected elections in Germany, which will occur this weekend. That fact that Merkel's conservatives will win doesn't raise doubts, however it is all about the ability to create a coalition.

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    23 September 2013: Angela Merkel Received The Majority In The Parliament Once Again

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    According to the preliminary data of the electoral committee of Germany, the chancellor of the country, Angela Merkel, and her Christian Democratic Party, received the majority in the parliament yet again, having collected about 42% of the votes. It is interesting to note that the results of the elections, which passed in the country this weekend, appeared to be the most impressive for the party since 1990. For the financial markets this news carries, certainly, positive coloring: in any case political stability in the strongest, from an economic point of view, country of Europe has to be present if the 'Old World' wants prosperity in the future of the European Union.

    At the same time, according to the specified data of exit polls, the Free Democratic Party — the colleague of the block of Angela Merkel, lost fraction in the parliament, which was not a very positive moment. As a whole, participants of the market didn't doubt the victory of Angela Merkel, therefore any essential movements, even in the currency market after this event, we shouldn't be waiting for. The EUR/USD currency pair bargains today without changes, trading at 1.3534.

    Main macroeconomic releases for the week are going to be preliminary data on the PMI indexes for September and IFO Business Climate in Germany, which will be published today and tomorrow. Dynamics of economic indicators in the leading economy of the Eurozone improved recently, and therefore it is possible to expect an additional positive support for the Euro.

    From the technical analysis point of view, the next level of the current ascending trend in EUR/USD is the level of 1.37. However for the pair to continue to go up it is important to hold the support level on 1.34.

    The publication of data on activity index in the industry of China (according to the HSBC version) becomes another important event at the beginning of this week. In September, according to preliminary estimates, the indicator grew to 51.2 points, having completely recovered from summer recession. On this background the Chinese stock market shows moderate growth - for 0.8%. Other Asian platforms are weaker at the moment, Australian ASX200 loses 0.4%, and Japanese Nikkei falls for 0.15%.

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    24 September 2013: The Asian Markets Decrease Against A Storming Typhoon

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Today's dynamics at the Asian stock markets are generally in a negative zone, the Chinese indexes look worse than the others due to a strong typhoon storming in the People's Republic of China. Also, negative pressure was laid by yesterday's decrease in the American market, that, as a whole, creates a negative external background.

    In Hong Kong today there are full-scale sales in the real estate sector, in particular China Resources Land and China Overseas Land & Investment decreased by 3.5% and 1.5% respectively, and the reason for it is the same, a destructive typhoon. On the continent, the situation with construction companies is almost the same, China Vanke and Beijing Capital Development decrease by 1.2% and 2.1% respectively.

    In Japan, meanwhile, representatives of the hi-tech exporting sector are feeling worse than the others, which, by tradition, most sharply react to all-market conditions. Sony, Canon and Pioneer lost more than 2% today, the background factor being the strengthening of the Yen against the Dollar which was promoted, in turn, by yesterday's statement of the representative of FED, regarding the state of the economy of the USA and prospects of turning of QE3.

    In the commodity market, prices for Oil are slightly decreasing with Brent traded on a level of 108.08$ per barrel and Light is decreasing by 0.12% coming down to a price of 103.46$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are consolidating after steep increases which we witnessed after the decision of FED last week, Gold is traded on a level of 1324.14$ and is losing 0.21%. Silver is down to 21.79$ and is losing 0.68%.

    As for the EUR/USD, there will be published statistics on German indicators from IFO institute for September. Positive data will effect the currency pair, and give it power to return back to the resistance level of 1.3550. However, if the results are going to be worse than the expected values, Euro can go down.

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    25 September 2013: Budgetary Problems Of The USA Will Be Under Scrutiny In The Next Few Weeks

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.



    On Tuesday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate decrease, due to the influence of adverse macroeconomic statistics and remaining concern in relation to approaching exhaustion of the limit of loans and funds for the correct functioning of the American government. The only important statistics published yesterday was the index of consumer confidence for September, which didn't reach the average forecasts and made 79.7 points, when analysts expected 79.9 points.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.43% to a level of 15334.59 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0.26% to a level of 1697.42 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.08% and reached the level of 3768.25 points.

    The attention of investors remains on the statements of the heads of the FRS in the last few days, regarding a seemingly possible beginning of turning of stimulating programs in October. Additional risks create proceeding political fights among the American legislators. If the Congress of the USA can't find consensus and coordinate the federal budget, absence can hypothetically lead to financial crisis. In turn, the speech of the U.S. President, Barack Obama, on General assembly of the UN in New York concerning the solution of the Syrian problem, reduced fears of the application of military force.

    Leading share indexes of Europe on Tuesday slightly increased. Support to the market was given by statements of the European Central Bank saying that ECB is ready in case of the need to provide additional liquidity to support loan costs at a low level. Moreover, presented positive data on the IFO index of trust of the German businessmen to national economy, also became a positive impulse in the market. This indicator showed continued growth for the fifth month in a row, having reached a maximum level for the last one and a half years.

    In the commodity market, futures for Oil of brand Light are this morning increasing by 0.49% and are traded on a level of 103.64$ per barrel, Brent is increasing by 0.42% and traded on a price of 109.10$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are up by 0.97% and 1.17% accordingly.

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    26 September 2013: Passions Concerning Monetary Problems Of America Start Growing

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Wednesday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a decrease again, and the S&P500 fell for the fifth day in a row and recorded the longest losing series this year. The last time we saw the market falling for so many days was over one year ago, when the American legislators couldn't agree upon the question of a "fiscal break", and this time the reason for the falling market is also connected with fiscal problems of the USA.

    Uncertainty concerning the budget and a ceiling of the public debt again starts to expand. The American government needs to take all necessary decisions and actions by the 17th of October. Obviously, nobody will allow a default of America, but questions always arise – such as which price will be needed to pay? In general, the heat and debate between republicans and democrats will be going on during the next two weeks and we should keep that in mind.

    Yesterday, data was published on sales of new homes for August, showing an increase from the reconsidered 0.39 million to 0.421 million; besides, orders for durable goods for the same month grew by 0.1% though zero change was expected after a collapse for 7.4% one month earlier, which was reconsidered to an even more frightening figure – 8.1%. Even solid macroeconomic statistics couldn't shift the markets in a positive direction.

    Today promises to be volatile, important publications for the markets are expected already from the early morning, and will end late night at the Asian session. It should be noted that following the results of the day, we shall not expect considerable changes in the mood of the traders, but during the day there is going to be a good possibility of opening positions, both according to fundamental analysis, and based on technical levels.

    As for EUR/USD currency pair, the support level for today is on 1.3490. During the trading session, we can expect the pair to go up to 1.3550-1.3570. In case the Dollar is going to start to strengthen, the first level of resistance to break is based on 1.3490, where the next purpose will be 1.3450.

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    27 September 2013: Positive Statistics Give The Markets A Chance To Relax

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Thursday, the American market finished the trading session with a small increase. Good news from the labor market and optimistic statements of senator Stein provoked an increase in demand for fallen priced shares after a five day correction period. Primary requests for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to 305 thousand from the reconsidered 310 thousand, that became a minimum level almost in 6 years, and the senator from the republicans declared with confidence that neither government termination of work, nor a default according to obligations, will happen.

    It appeared the news was quite enough to spur the correctional growth of market indexes. However, it should be noted that GDP in the final reading in the 2nd quarter made 2.5%, even though a 2.6% increase had been predicted.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed with an increase of 0.36% on a level of 15328.30 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 grew by 0.35% to level of 1698.67 points, and the index of hi-tech companies, the Nasdaq, rose by 0.70% to a level of 3787.43 points.

    The situation in the commodity market seems to be rather stable. Brent is traded this morning on a level of 108.95$ per barrel losing 0.23%, Light is down by 0.45%, traded on a level of 102.55$ per barrel. The key support level for Brent is still located in the range of 106.00 – 107.00$ per barrel. Recently we are observing a consolidation, volatility has been reduced.

    In the currency market, we have seen a stronger Dollar in relation to all major currency pairs. EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3491, having tested yesterday a support level based on 1.3470. British Pound has been under moderate pressure after the report on the current account of the balance of payments for the first quarter, showing the most considerable deficiency since 1955. That calls into question the possibility of the economy to continue restoration with developed speed due to further strengthening of the Sterling. British Pound is bargaining this morning next to the level of 1.6110.

    For today, an exit of important macroeconomic statistics aren't planned that could be capable of having an essential impact on Dollar positions, but it will be saturated on significant events. At once, three members of the committee on the open markets of FRS of the USA will make a speech at various actions.

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    30 September 2013: Turbulence On World Stock Markets In Connection With The Situation In The USA, Starts To Increase

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Following the results of Friday’s trading session, the majority of the world markets showed negative dynamics. The American indexes decreased within 0.5%. Among the European platforms - the London FTSE index became the leader of the fall, having decreased by 0.81%.

    The statistics published during the day generally displayed mixed character. According to final data, the economy of France grew in the second quarter by 0.5% which coincided with previous assessments and forecasts of analysts. The income of the population of the USA in August increased by 0.4%, and expenses - by 0.3%, that was also completely similar to forecasts of analysts. The index of consumer confidence fell in the USA in September to 77.5 points in comparison with 82.1 points the month before. Analysts expected decrease of the indicator to 78 points.

    In addition, the head of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, noted that the current monetary policy will allow to hold inflation below the target value of the FRS of 2%, for a long time. In his opinion, the unemployment rate in the USA will reach 6.5%, before the FRS will increase interest rates.

    This morning Asian platforms significantly decrease. Japanese Nikkei fell by 1.46% after the release of data on industrial production for August, which was significantly worse than expectations. Decrease for 0.7% was presented, against the expected 0.4%. The Korean KOSPI decreases by 0.57%, the Hang-Seng index fell by 1.27%. The exception makes the Chinese Shanghai Composite which rose by 0.6%. The index of business activity in the industry for September, according to the HSBC version grew by 0.1 points, and made 50.2 points. Official PMI will be published on Tuesday.

    Oil quotations fall within 1% due to the decrease in intensity around the Syrian conflict. In particular, on Saturday it became known that the UN Security Council adopted the resolution on Syria. However, a military scenario isn't excluded, in case of violation of the resolution by any of the conflicting parties. Brent is traded on a level of 107.66$ per barrel – loosing 0.89%, Light is down by 1.30%, traded on a price of 101.52$ per barrel.

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    01 October 2013: The Government of the USA will Partially Suspend the Work for the First Time in 17 Years

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The congress of the USA didn't manage to compromise concerning financing of work of the government. Last night, on September 30, the senate for the third time for the last some days rejected the offer of republican opposition to coordinate the sanction on temporary financing of activity of the government to blocking of funds for large-scale reform of health care.

    It should be noted that 54 voices against the 46, senate of the USA voted against amendments to the bill, offered by republicans. As a result, the federal budget for 2014 fiscal year, beginning on October 1, wasn't accepted.

    The government of the USA for the first time for the last 17 years started partial dissolution of civil servants, having left about 800 000 people without work. It should be noted that date of the next negotiations on a question of the federal budget wasn't determined yet.

    Analysts of Goldman Sachs consider that three-week holiday of federal employees can lead to delay of growth rates of economy of the USA in the fourth quarter on 0,9 percentage points to 1,6%.

    Till October 17th, the problem with a national debt ceiling in the USA will stand sharply. Some lawyers, in particular the former president Bill Clinton, claim that the constitution gives the chance to the President to lift this ceiling to avoid a default on a public debt. As Obama pathologically is afraid of responsibility and wants to become history as the indecisivest U.S. President, won't lift a national debt ceiling.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed with a minus of 0,84% - on a level of 15129,67 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 lost 0,60% reaching 1681,55 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq decreased for 0,27% to a level of 3771,48 points.

    Brent is traded on a level of 106,75$ per barrel, losing 0,62%; Light is down for 0,36% traded on 101,53$ per barrel. Gold and silver stable on 1329,46$ and 21,75$ accordingly. EUR/USD in the morning is jumped to 1.3570.

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