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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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    02 October 2013: The Markets Are Ignoring American Budgetary Problems

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday's trading session confirmed confidence of participants of the market that the political debate in the USA will soon end and won't render a negative effect on the economy. The American stock markets grew by 0.4-1,2%, the Dollar remained under pressure, and Gold, which wasn't demanded as a traditional safe investment, dropped by $40, to a two month low.

    The majority of the European trading platforms carefully bargain in a "green" zone, however this positive can instantly be replaced by sales against events in the USA. Apparently, investors can't estimate the end of the suspension of work of the government of the USA, which is the first time such an event has occured in 17 years. From now on, more than 800 thousand civil servants will be sent on leave, and that will definitely be reflected in the first economy of the world.

    Yesterday in Washington, museums and national parks were closed. At 8:00 o’clock in the morning, the police partitioned off (with iron barriers) all avenues to the Lincoln Memorial, state galleries and showrooms announced termination of work "for an unknown period" on their doors, where signs were hung out.

    The previous day, the budgetary office of the White house informed the staff of federal departments that all state institutions to the USA pass to an extraordinary mode. 90% of specialists of NASA, nearly 70% of employees of the Ministry of Energy and 50% of civil servants of the Ministry of Defence, were sent on compelled leave. In such workplaces, only the officials were left who's work is recognized as " vital for the country’s safety". However, they will remain unpaid.

    In Washington, no forecasts have been done regarding how long there will be a budgetary crisis. Since 1976, US authorities have declared partial termination of work of the federal government 18 times. The shortest of these crises proceeded for only 24 hours, and the longest fell on Bill Clinton's presidency. In the winter of 1996, federal institutions in the USA didn't work for 21 days.

    The main event of the day is the speech of the Chairman of European Central Bank, Mario Dragi, with comments regarding the decision on an interest rate. We believe that his speech won't effect the optimism surrounding the Euro, which is gradually approaching the upper bound of a comfortable range for the European Central Bank 1.2750-1.3700.

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    07 October 2013: Volatility Remains To Be High On Stock And Currency Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Friday, the trading session was based on hopes that Friday's round of negotiations on the American budgetary problems would be successful, and new moves would be outlined in a resolution of conflict between republicans and democrats. However, a constructive solution didn't appear, but Barack Obama strengthened pressure on republicans who blocked acceptance of the budget. Also, the president declared that he is open to discussion on health care reform. Negotiations of politicians helped the stock markets to finish the trading week with an increase, Dow Jones added 0.50% reaching level of 15072.58 points, Nasdaq increased by 0.88% traded on 3807.75, S&P-500 added 0.70% reaching a level of 1672.97 points.

    It is necessary to mention that, as every first Friday of the month, a package of statistical data on employment of the Ministry of Labour of the USA for the previous month, became the main information event for the American stock exchanges. However, the habitual schedule was violated for the first time in many years, because of the compelled inaction of many government agencies, and publication of results of labor markets is postponed for an uncertain time period.

    On Friday, the price of futures of gold fell for 7.70 Dollars or 0.6% to the value of 1309.90 Dollars for troy ounce – this morning it is traded on 1311.76 adding in price 0.14%. Gold fell in price due to the strengthening of the Dollar against all competing reserve currencies, and proceeding reduction of stocks of a precious metal in the largest world Gold index funds. As a whole in a week gold lost 2.2%, having suffered the first failure for the last 3 weeks.

    Oil increased in price in connection with tropical storm Karen, which has arisen in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to develop into a hurricane and to cause serious damage to the American objects of Oil branch, the part from which already suspended the activity and made an evacuation of drilling platforms. Following the results of the week, the cost of Oil increased by 0.9%. This morning Brent is traded on a price of 107.78$ per barrel and Light reached price of 102.72$ per barrel.

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    08 October 2013: Movements In The Market Are Not Expected Whilst Crisis In The USA Is Unresolved

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate decrease of the main indexes, thus the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 fell to the minimum level for the month. After a losing week, the market didn't find within itself a force for growth - legislators remain at the former deadlock concerning the future exhaustion of means in the budget, and can't seem to find a compromise.

    At the same time, we will note that the international rating agency Moody's, called the probability of a default of the USA, according to debts "very low", and it promotes a rather quiet situation in the world markets, at the same time giving support for the strengthening of the Dollar.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.90% to level of 14936.24 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0.85% to a level of 1676.12 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to a minus on 0.98% and reached the level of 3770.38 points.

    The European indexes also showed a decrease following the results of the day. Gross domestic product of the Eurozone grew by 0.3%, which coincided with expectations of analysts. However, the index of business trust of Sentix for October decreased from 6.5 to 6.1 points when analysts expected growth to 8 points. As a result, DAX decreased by 0.36%, FTSE 100 fell by 0.37%, and CAC 40 lost 0.19%.

    The Asian markets are showing multidirectional dynamics, however, with prevalence of small growth. Nikkei bargains in a green zone, despite a decrease in quotations of the companies of exporters, due to the strengthening of the Yen. The main chinese index, Hang Seng, increased by 0.89% during yesterday's session. The Australian and Korean indexes, on the contrary, are in a small minus.

    Oil is stable with Brent on 108.70$ per barrel, and Light on 102.88$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are slightly loosing, traded on levels 1324.87$ and 22.34$ accordingly.

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    09 October 2013: Nervousness Increases On Wall Street

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Tuesday, the American market finished the trading session again with a decrease. Democrats and republicans continue to insist on their positions, and all week negotiations didn't move from a 'dead point'. Yesterday, president Barack Obama declared that he agrees to resume negotiations only after governmental departments will re-open, and the national debt ceiling, without any conditions, is raised.

    In statistical data, we note that the index of economic optimism of IBD decreased in October to 38.4 points, from 46 points. The statistics on trade balance of the USA was not announced.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed in 1.07% minus on a level of 14776.53 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 lost 1.23% reaching a level of 1655.45 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, decreased by 2.00% to a level of 3694.83 points.

    The price for Brent this morning is decreasing by 0.11%, traded on a price of 109.27$ per barrel. Light is flat on the price of 103.30$ per barrel. Precious metals are losing in price with Gold and Silver traded on 1316.81$ and 22.26$ accordingly.

    On the currency market, the Dollar is weakening in relation to major currencies. EUR/USD is traded on 1.3527. Problems in the USA are pushing the Dollar to go down and against all this, even the publication of the protocol from the last meeting of the FOMC will barely be able to strengthen USD positions.

    Great Britain will publish a whole series of reports on industrial production, trade balance and gross domestic product from NIESR today. If indicators will continue to show stable growth of the national economy, it can push the currency pair to reach the next resistance level, based on 1.6150.


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    10 October 2013: Republicans Refuse Attacks On Health Care Reform In The USA

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    For the first time this week, the atmosphere in the markets seem to be moderately positive. News on different subjects coming from the USA are giving investors hope that the situation in the United States will be resolved soon.

    Yesterday, the White House unofficially announced that on Wednesday Obama will announce that Janet Yellen will become Ben Bernanke's successor, and will take the post of the head of the FED. Bernanke's term expires on January 31, and Yellen had high chances to replace him, given the fact her views are similar to Bernanke's in regards to monetary policy and the support of QE. The rumors came true - Obama declared that Yellen will replace Bernanke unofficially. After this news, indexes started to strengthen their positions, winning back potential preservation of the softened monetary policy when the new head of FED will take her place.

    It should be noted that powers of the current head of FED will expire on January 31, 2014, so the question of QE coming to a halt is still within his right to decide. According to the "minutes" of the FED, halting the program of quantitative easing is supposed to begin this year, however, we should not forget that it has been reconsidered prior to the beginning of shutdown, so the situation could still change. Especially as, in September, the decision on preservation of volumes of QE was made after the analysis of macroeconomic data, which were unsatisfactory. Now, key reports simply aren't published because of the compelled holiday of state employees, so bankers will have nothing to analyze at the next meeting.

    Also, markets are supported by messages that the republicans refuse attacks on reform of health care and pass to lobbying of other articles of the budget. According to some of them, attempt to influence destiny of this law failed.

    As for the numbers, Dow Jones increased yesterday by 0.17% reaching the level of 14802.98 points, Nasdaq lost 0.46% traded on a level of 3677.78 points and S&P 500 increased by 0.05%, reaching the level of 1656.40 points.

    Oil prices are increasing, with Brent and Light growing in price by around 0.50%. Brent is traded on 108.91$ per barrel, and Light on 101.92$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are flat on 1307.22$ and 21.97$ accordingly. EUR/USD went down to 1.35.

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    11 October 2013: Hopes For Fast Achievement Of A Compromise Caused Rally In The US Market

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Thursday, the market of the United States of America finished the trading session in positive territory, based on the information that republicans and democrats will shortly be able to reach a compromise for the solution of the budgetary question.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, grew by 2.18% and was closed on a level of 15 126,07 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 increased by 2.18% to level of 1 692.56 points, and the index of hi-tech companies, Nasdaq "recovered" by 2.26% to a level of 3 760.75 points.

    It has been reported that the parties are ready to consider the possibility of a temporary increase of the upper bound of the national debt. Republicans suggest to raise the ceiling for 4-6 weeks during which it will be possible to resolve issues with the budget and, thereby, avoiding a default. This idea was supported by the Administration of the President Barack Obama also.

    The macroeconomic statistics on the labor market issued yesterday didn't cause a rough reaction of investors. Notice that the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits made 374 thousand, whereas 310 thousand were expected. It is still not clear, whether the increased numbers are related to the temporary suspension of sectors of government work, or they are connected with some technical problems in California, which were mentioned previously.

    Currently indexes are increasing in price, although we cannot see the same positive development with the Dollar. The Dollar still remains to be under strong pressure. This morning, EUR/USD currency pair bargains around the level of 1.3534.

    The financial markets remain hostages of the events occurring in the USA, and any sign of progress in this case causes a surge in the emotions of investors. However, each time increased demand for USD carries a short-term nature, as the American government only delays it's decision-making on the national debt. Occurrences will unambiguously have echoes in data on consumer and business confidence in the future, which will result in weak demand for the purchases of goods during the Christmas season, and will effect profits of the corporate sector. It will create conditions for a decline of the American currency in the future.

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    14 October 2013: Possible Compromise Of The Congress Of The US, Sets Mood At The Stock Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.



    On Friday, key stock indexes of Europe showed positive dynamics the second day in a row, based on the information that the Congress of the USA can agree on raising the level of the national debt of the country, having reduced, thereby, the threat of a possible default. It should be noted that negotiations of politicians will proceed, thus republicans already put forward offers on a temporary increase in the ceiling of the national debt of the USA.

    In the light of the latest events, the government of the USA hasn't worked since October 1, and meanwhile, October 17 is approaching, when it will be necessary to make the decision on the increase of the ceiling of the national debt of the country.

    As a result, the Dow Jones finished the trading week at 15237.11 increasing by 0.73%, Nasdaq increased by 0.84%, S&P 500 added 0.62% traded on a level of 1703.29 points.

    From the macroeconomic statistics published on Friday, the consumer price index of Germany for September did not change, as expected. Meanwhile, in the USA, the new reporting season started which brought optimistic vibes on the market. The reporting of the American banks JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, surpassed market expectations. JP Morgan showed a loss following the results of the last quarter, but it is mainly connected with legal costs. Except for this article, the profit on a share made $1.42, whereas an increase to $1.29 was expected. This week, many important corporate publications are expected, tomorrow will we see reports from Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Intel and Yahoo.

    Commodity and currency markets are stable, upward movement of Gold and Silver can be seen, which again left below levels of 1300.00 and 22.00 accordingly. This morning, Gold is traded on a price of 1275.87$ per troy ounce, adding 0.60% and Silver is up by 0.73% at 21.41$ per troy ounce.

    Monday in quite poor regarding macroeconomic statistics. Consumer price index has been published in China which recorded unexpectedly high growth of the indicator in September by 3.1%, when -2.9% had been forecasted. In the European region, data on industrial production of 17 countries of the Eurozone will be published.

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    15 October 2013: The Problem In The US Will Be Resolved Hollywood Style - At The Last Moment!

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Last night, the leader of the democrats in the Senate, Harry Reid, declared that essential progress in the solution of the budgetary question has been made, and an agreement between the parties could be reached within the next 24 hours.

    However, it has been reported that an agreement on the two main points still hasn't been able to be reached, namely the terms of a possible increase of the ceiling of debt, and financing of the bill of the renewal of activity of the government, which are still being discussed.

    The trading session in the USA finished with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.42% reaching the level of 15301, 26 points. S&P 500 increased by 0.41% traded on a level of 1710.14 points and Nasdaq reached 3815.28 having added 0.61%. The trading session in Asia passed with an increase of the main indexes against positive expectations whilst the budget of the USA was observed.

    The price of Oil futures of the Light brand this morning is falling by 0.26%, traded on the price of 102.20$ per barrel, Brent is also decreasing by 0.26% traded on the price of 109.95$ per barrel. Gold and Silver continue to loose in price. Gold is traded on the price of 1268.79$ per troy ounce losing more than 0.61%. Silver is down by 1.16% traded on the price of 21.11$ per troy ounce.

    As for the currency market, if yesterday we observed a decline in demand for the US Dollar, it doesn't mean that today the situation will continue to be the same! The market actually doesn't believe that the American authorities will bring the matter to a default, therefore after correction of positions on Monday, currency pairs can fall into a consolidation mode up until the announcement of the agreement or approaches on October 17. Today, economic releases from Europe can influence the trading dynamics of the currency pairs. The Eurozone will publish the report on business moods from ZEW institute in Germany.

    As for the time being, EUR/USD currency pair bargains around level of 1.3559.

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    16 October 2013: Fitch Placed The Credit Rating Of The US On Revision

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Each new trading day in the market within the last 2 weeks has begun with the hopes that the budgetary problems in the USA will be resolved, and congressmen will be able to agree upon insoluble questions. Congressmen, during their pre-conference time, manipulate on information that the prospect of the settlement of the current situation is very positive, and a necessary agreement will be reached shortly.

    Again we are starting the new trading day with information that congress again, are having problems. The same goes for yesterday, when we were informed that the House of Representatives in the congress of the US postponed the vote regarding the last plan of the republicans. Additionally, the international rating agency 'Fitch Ratings' informed that it has placed a long-term rating of the default of the issuer of the USA in foreign and national currency "AAA" (the forecast being'negative') upon revision.

    As a result, the american market reacted with a decrease after a few positive trading sessions. Asian stock markets are also falling this morning. The Dow Jones finished the trading session with a decrease of 0.87% traded on 15168.01 points, Nasdaq bargained next to the level of 3794.01 points having lost 0.56%, S&P 500 decreased by 0.71% reaching the level of 1698.06 points.

    There is also a positive factor in all of this budgetary confusion - yesterday's news only convinced us more that the chances of the QE3 turning in the current year is practically impossible. According to Moody's rating agency, temporary dissolution of the government already reduced gross domestic product of the US by 20 billion Dollars. Business activity in the region of New York also falls in connection with low business trust: the Empire State index rolled down to 1.52 from 6.29, having noted a minimum level for the last five months.

    Against all these events and, of course, inaction of the American government, the Dollar again couldn't strengthen its positions, and by the evening lost everything that it managed to gain throughout the day. EUR/USD currency pair has a big chance to return to the area of 1.36.

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    17 October 2013: The US Congress Saved The Country From A Default At The Last Moment

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, the trading session past and waited upon the expectation of news from the USA, and as it was predicted - the decision was made at the last moment. The day ended up with the news that the Senate of the US almost unanimously voted for a temporary increase of the ceiling of the national debt and the renewal of financing of the government, and later at the House of Representatives the document was also approved.

    Earlier the Congress of the US also voted for a law which resumes government financing until January the 15th 2014, and prevents default threat until February the 7th 2014. Now, only the final decision of the president needs to be obtained. However, Barack Obama already declared that he will sign the bill immediately. Thus, Washington kept it's firm traditions - rescuing the economy from a default at the last minute time.

    Obviously the awaited news gave an immediate boost to the markets before closing, and we observed some kind of a dynamic rally. Dow Jones raised by 1.36% to the level of 15373.83 points, Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 1.38% to the level of 1721.54 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 1.20% and reached the level of 3839.43 points.

    As for the currency market, we could not see any positive support for the Dollar, and so far the Dollar is continuing to weaken against other major currencies. Most probably the decision of the congress had been already included in the price. Now, after the solution of the question, comes the understanding of how much the politicians did harm to the American economy with all their disagreements. It is possible to expect a correctional kickback in the EUR/USD pair, with next purpose based on 1.36.

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