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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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    18 October 2013: Attention Of Investors Switched To Macroeconomic Statistics

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.01% to the level of 15371.65 points. The index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.67% to the level of 1733.15 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.62% and reached the level of 3863.15 points.

    Data on industrial production and the number of constructions that had begun weren't published yesterday, but the weekly statistics on the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits showed a small decrease, from the reconsidered 373 thousand to 358 thousand, but nevertheless this decrease was weaker than the expected 335 thousand.

    Yesterday, we had an opportunity to observe in the market a classical scheme "buy on hearings – sell on the facts". As soon as the US declared the decision, the markets ceased to support the American currency. As a result, the EUR/USD finished the trading day around the level of 1.3670, and GBP/USD – around 1.6150.

    EUR/USD got good support, not only due to technical correction, but also in connection with news that the Chinese rating agency lowered the status of sovereign debt of the US from A to -A. The pair reached a minimum at 1.3515 then the announcement of the restoration of work of the American government was made, and thereafter the pair started to grow. As a result, the currency reached its maximum at 1.3675.

    One more interesting development was observed in the Gold and Silver market. The most interesting point was that prices of Gold punched upward, a bearish corridor from 28th of August 2013. Considering that the cease government activity caused the US economic damage, the FRS, at the meeting at the end of the month, won't decide on a reduction of the program of monetary easing. In November, there will be discussions regarding Janet Yellen taking her post as the head of FED, madam Yellen will defend for certain adaptive monetary policy that will give support to Gold. This morning Gold is decreasing by 0.41%, having traded on the price of 1317.47$ per troy ounce.

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    21 October 2013: Growth In The Stock Market Continues

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The new trading week begins rather quietly and without any surprises after the weekend. On Friday, the American market continued to grow, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.18% reaching the level of 15399.65 points, Nasdaq added 1.32% and finished the trading week on a level of 3914.28 points, and S&P500 increased by 0.66% up to the level of 1744.50 points.

    In general, this continuous growth can be described as having a bad effect on the economy of USA, while the politicians in Washington were unwilling to agree and solve matters. FRS will be compelled to prolong the repayment of bonds without the reduction of volumes, most likely, until February next year. Also we believe that today there will be signs of continuous growth.

    Successful quarter results of a number of the leading American companies, are also giving indices the power to strengthen. Some of the companies which presented their quarterly results on Friday extremely surprised markets. Google reported growth of their quarter net profit by 36%, and for the first time the price of its shares exceeded the level of 1000 Dollars, having reached the maximum cost at 1011 Dollars.

    As for the commodities market, Oil and precious metals prices are quite stable. This morning, Brent is losing just 0.08%, traded on a price of 109.85$ per barrel, Light is decreasing slightly more, traded on a price of 100.88$ per barrel and losing 0.23%. Gold and Silver are up by 0.52% and 1.39% accordingly.

    Admittedly, despite the fact that the stock markets continue their growth, the American Dollar is under significant pressure for the last few weeks. Today, the EUR/USD currency pair is traded on a level of 1.3682. The upcoming week will be saturated with important macroeconomic statistics as public institutions of the USA resume work, and will backtrack by publishing the releases that were missed during the previous weeks. We will see figures on sales volumes in the secondary market of real estate, and bureaus of labor statistics will deliver a report on quantity of new workplaces and unemployment rate. The released data might have a significant influence on the further development of the Dollar.

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    22 October 2013: Investors Look Forward To Data On The US Labor Market

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main indices, except for the index of blue chips. Standard & Poor’s 500 succeeded in retaining record highs, but investors were not ready to continue to push the index up further before important macroeconomic statistical data would be published today.

    Yesterday data was published on sales of houses in the secondary market for September, and they were not too encouraging. August’s value was reconsidered towards a decrease from 5.48 million to 5.39 million, and in September it made only 5.29 million, when at the time the average forecasts of 5.30 million had been predicted. This fact also limited the purchasing moods on stock markets. The statistics on expenses on construction for August has still not been published.

    By the end of the month reports will be presented which were not published during the period when all government agencies were closed. Today, statistics on employment and unemployment for September is expected.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.05% to the level of 15392.20 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by just 0.01% to the level of 1744.66 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 0.15% and reached the level of 3920.05 points.

    European stock markets also finished the trading session quite differently. From the statistics, it is worth to pay an attention to the increase of industrial prices in Germany by 0.3%, when analysts expected growth by only 0.1%. From the corporate sector good news arrived from Philips, which showed a triple increase in net profit. However, DAX increased by 0.02%, FTSE 100 grew by 0.48%, and CAC 40 lost 0.21%.

    Brent is traded on a price of 109.70$ per barrel, increasing by 0.05%. Light went below the level of 100.00$ per barrel, and is traded on a price of 99.39$, losing 0.29% this morning. Gold and Silver are stable at the level of 1316.10$ and 22.155$ accordingly.

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    23 October 2013: Statistics On The Labor Market Of The US Disappointed Investors

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Long awaited September data on employment disappointed participants of the market, having shown a gain which was much weaker than expectations. However, it helped to strengthen the opinion that due to such sluggish dynamics of the labor market, the FRS won't take the risk to displace the QE program.

    The Ministry of Labour reported that employment in non-agricultural sectors increased by 148 thousand, when 180 thousand were forecast. In the press release, it was noted that growth of the indicator was observed in construction, wholesale trade, transportation, and warehouse sectors. Unemployment rate thus unexpectedly decreased to 7.2% from 7.3%. The average duration of the working week remained at the former level of 34.5 hours, but growth rates of an average hourly salary showed slower development - 0.1% against the expected 0.2%.

    As a result, the indicator of "blue chips", the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed in 0.49% plus on a level of 15467.66 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 increased by 0.57% to the level of 1754.67 points, and the index of hi-tech companies, the Nasdaq, increased 0.24% to the level of 3929.57 points.

    Despite positive development on the stock markets, we could observe that on currency markets volatility was off the scale, and the Dollar came under strong pressure. The Euro broke the important level of 1.37, and continued its growth, having reached a maximum at 1.3788. This morning, the currency pair bargains near 1.3767. Tomorrow the PMI index of the Eurozone will be published, if it will appear to be above forecasts again, it will only strengthen the determination of the currency pair to continue it’s growth. After the breakdown of the resistance level on 1.3780, the currency pair will direct to the area based on 1.3840.

    Commodities are decreasing in price today. Brent and Light are losing 0.32% and 0.54% accordingly, Light went below the price of 98.00$ per barrel and is traded on the price of 97.77$ per barrel. Gold is traded on the price of 13336.78$ per troy ounce, losing 0.43% and Silver is down by 0.31% at the price of 22.72$ per troy ounce.

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    24 October 2013: Nine Day Rally In Europe Has Ended

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, stock indices finished the trading session in the red zone. Weak quarterly results of a number of the largest companies, and also Mario Dragi's statement for the forthcoming stress tests of banks, became the main reason for the suspension of the nine day rally, the longest for the last 40 months.

    Papers of the European banks were under strong pressure, reason for that being the speech of the head of the European Central Bank M.Dragi, who, during his press conference, stated rather rigidly that if the bank didn't pass a stress test, it would be bankrupted. This means that peripheral banks shouldn't count on help from outside. In November, the European regulator will begin a complex check of financial institutions. Any bankruptcy, even if it will be initiated by the government of the country, will promote sales of shares, especially in the banking sector.

    The British FTSE 100 receded by 0.32%, the French CAC 40 lost 0.81% and the German DAX weakened by 0.31%.

    Strangely enough, all these conversations had a limited impact on the EUR/USD. Analytics are stating that lately the Euro is in demand from Asian institutional investors, who are reconsidering the currency reserves and are slowly losing faith in the Dollar. The pair from the level of opening 1.3779, went down to a minimum of 1.3741, and this morning went through the level of 1.38 and is traded on the level of 1.3815.

    US indices also moderately decreased, however, significant sales didn't happen. Following the results of the trading session, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.35%, and the S&P500 by 0.49%. The Chinese Shanghai Comp. decreased by 0.2%, and the Japanese Nikkei fell by 0.6%, making them the outsiders of the day. In particular, it couldve been caused by the publication of preliminary data on the index of business activity in China, according to the HSBC version the indicator decreased to 50.9 points.

    Today there will be one more chance to check what economy is recovering more steadily. Data on business activity in the manufacturing industry and in the services sector of the Eurozone and Germany will cause great interest in market participants. If business activity in both sectors will appear above forecasts again, demand for the currency pair will increase. In the case of the EUR/USD braking the level of 1.3780, the pair will direct to the area of 1.3840.

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    25 October 2013: Quarterly Reports Of Companies Continue To Please Investors

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Leading European and American indices grew yesterday by 0.2-0.6%, the increase being promoted by good corporate reports and weak statistics on employment from the USA. Investors see the macroeconomic indicators as confirmation that stimulating policies and the monetary easing program will be kept. Unemployment benefit figures in the US, which have shown a growth of the number of requests to 350 thousand, when only 330 thousand were predicted, is definitely an argument for sustaining the QE program.

    In turn, reports of American companies continue to please investors. The report of Microsoft, published after the close of the trading session, affected the rise in price of company papers by 7%, during an electronic trading session. On average, the profit of 217 companies, which have already reported the last quarterly results for the S&P 500 index, have been better than market expectations in 77% of cases, profit being in 53%.

    Commodities are weak again today. Prices of Oil rise slightly on Friday, but finish the week with an essential decrease. Brent is traded on the price of 107.05$ per barrel, increasing from yesterday by only 0.06%, Light is up by 0.03% at the price of 97.14$. Since the beginning of this week, Brent has fallen in price by 2.4%. The cost of WTI fell by 3.3%, that is the maximum decrease since June. Gold and Silver are losing 0.63% and 1.77% accordingly. The future contract on Oil of the Brent brand bargains at the price of $107 per barrel, WTI $96 per barrel.

    In relation to the EUR/USD, the Dollar has again been under strong pressure and the pair could, from level of opening of 1.3774, move to a maximum on 1.3824. Nevertheless, data which was published yesterday has been rather inconsistent. Data from the Euro zone limited further movements. PMI in France in the manufacturing sector left below the 50 point level, and in the services sector , didn't fulfill forecasts. Indicators in Germany showed a similar dynamic. As a result, the pair was rolled away to the area of 1.38, but even after these disappointing figures the EUR/USD feels quite confident. However, if today's indicators of IFO will confirm a decrease, it will return the pair to the area of 1.3710.

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    28 October 2013: Meeting Of The FRS Will Become A Significant Event Of The Week

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    In the European markets, trading dynamics on Friday were rather different. Indices of the peripheral countries were decreasing. The Spanish IBEX 35 lost 1.01%, the Italian FTSE MIB decreased by 1.45%, and the others were bargaining without almost any change.

    Last week was full of statistics, which were moving markets in different directions, due to the fact that the presented data had not been supporting any trend. The index of business climate of IFO in Germany in October, unexpectedly decreased for the first time in half a year, from 107.7 points to 107.4 points. In the US, the volume of orders for durable goods in September grew by 3.7%. Final value of the index of consumer confidence of Michigan university decreased to 73.2 points, which was below preliminary data and forecasts.

    However, despite the statistics, the main American indices on Friday continued careful growth, having added about 0.4%. S&P 500 had just little to go in order to reach a new historical maximum, having increased by 0.44%, and traded on the level of 1759.77 points. Partly it was promoted again by corporate reporting.

    The main event of the week will become the announcement of the results of the FED meeting. Nevertheless, from the American regulator nobody expects any changes in the monetary policy. Supposedly, the program of monetary easing will not change. Volumes of purchases of securities within the program of quantitative easing will be kept at the level of 85 billion a month. Since September, not enough data was published that was capable to change the macroeconomic picture in favor of the need to begin the reduction of monetary incentives. Moreover, the report on the labor market for October was slightly worse than expectations, which is an additional limiting factor.

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    29 October 2013: The Dollar Continues Insignificant Strengthening

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Monday, October the 28th, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session almost next to the zero levels. Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.01% to the level of 15568.93 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.13% to a level of 1762.11 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus for 0.08% and reached the level of 3940.13 points. It is quite interesting that the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 is on the way to have the most advantageous year in a decade.

    As for the macroeconomic statistics published yesterday, the data on industrial production for September increased by 0.6%, average forecasts of growth were 0.4%. However, it is impossible to tell whether this fact influenced the behaviour of investors, as all are absorbed by the thought that October events thus far removed the beginning of the turning of the QE program to next year.

    In the commodity market, futures for Brent are losing this morning 0.48% traded on a price of 109.09$ per barrel. Light is down to 98.35$ per barrel, having decreased by 0.33%. Gold and Silver are up by 0.14% and 0.18% accordingly, traded on 1354.02$ and 22.58$ per troy ounce.

    Trading in the currency market at the opening of week proceeded rather quietly. Publication of the retails of the US will become the main influencing factor for the EUR/USD today. Despite a delay in the publication, it will be interesting to see at what level there was a consumer demand directly before a political play. If the indicator will be quite weak, it will become one more reason for purchase. The pair could break the record of the recently reached 2 year maximum, on the level of 1.3831, and direct to the area of 1.3870, the level of which we saw last time in November 2011.

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    30 October 2013: The Whole World Expects Optimism From FRS Decisions

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The American trading session ended by reaching a new historical maximum. S&P 500 updates it record the third session in a row, whilst NASDAQ is on a maximum level since September 2000. Again, weak statistics have been giving support to the markets, and were pushing indices to go up. Retails in the US decreased in September by 0.1%, when growth of 0.1% had been expected. The index of consumer confidence of Conference Board fell to 71.2 from 79.7.

    It is natural that the published statistics are leading investors to buy more before the FRS meeting. The majority of participants of the market don't expect any changes in the volume of the quantitative easing program. It is also worth bearing in mind the prices of houses. The S&P/Case-Shiller index in August showed a rise of 12.8% in prices for residential real estate in 20 main city formations of the USA. The August price grew by +0.9% alone.

    The Asian markets are also full of optimism. MSCI Asia-Pacific in Tokyo rose by 0.5%. Industrial production in Japan grew in September. This morning the Nikkei 225 grew by 1.03%, and Shanghai Composite adds 0.76%.

    As for the commodity market, Gold is not moving, and seems to be waiting for the FRS decision. Quotations decreased on Tuesday, and this morning Gold is traded on the price of 1346.27$ per troy ounce, adding 0.06%. Even reserves of SPDR Gold Trust didn't change. Oil is also decreasing, the second day in a row, especially Light, having lost 0.44% and is traded on the price of 97.77$ per barrel. Brent is up by 0.12% at a price of 109.14$ per barrel.

    Today, it is necessary to pay attention to the following macroeconomic events: unemployment in Germany, indexes of expectations and business climate in the Eurozone, the indicator of employment of ADP Services, data on consumer inflation in the US, data of the Ministry of Energy of the US on stocks, and consumption of oil and oil products. The main event of course, being the results of the FED meeting, which have been awaited by participants of the market for the last two weeks.

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    01 November 2013: Investors continue To Digest Results Of FED Meeting

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The trading session finished with a small loss in the American stock market on Thursday, having decreased for the second day in a row. Dow Jones decreased by 0.47% and has been trading on the level of 15545.75 points, S&P500 fell to the level of 1756.54 points, losing 0.36%, and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.27% being at the end of the day on the level of 3919.17 points. The main influencing factor has been strong data on the Chicago index of business activity, as for some time now all statistics have been perceived by investors through a prism of prospects of the program of quantitative easing.

    Yesterday, investors were waiting for the results of the FED meeting and now continue to digest the results of it, trying to find anything in the text which could outline when the QE-3 program will start to be reduced. A number of large western banks already changed their forecasts in this respect. For example, Credit Suisse considers that the volume of QE3 will be reduced not in March, but in January 2014, by $10 billion, and it is worth waiting for the full turning by September, 2014.

    American news does not really seem to be bothering investors in Europe. Yesterday we could observe quite optimistic moods in the European platforms. The German DAX index finished the trading session at the maximum historical level on 9033.9 points, having shown an annual gain of 18.67%.

    However, it should be stressed that the situation in the currency market and in particular, the situation with the Euro, strongly changed since the beginning of week. EUR/USD continued to suffer from correction of positions in connection with a difference of views of the national Central Banks on the further course of monetary policy. Macroeconomic statistical data which turned out to be quite weak, only increased uncertainty in relation to the Euro.

    Undoubtedly, statements of Mr. Novotna also affected positions of the Euro. Earlier during the week he already managed to excite the markets with the statement that the decrease in the rate on deposits is excluded, and then it gave support to the Euro. This time he made a hint that the European Central Bank could again start to use LTRO operations in order to maintain liquidity at sufficient levels. The regulator really should have a certain plan of action on the future as the current economic indicators show that the process of recovery proceeds unstably.

    As a result, the pair from the level of opening on 1.3733 came down to a minimum of 1.3583, having finished the day around 1.36. This morning EUR/USD pair continued it’s downward movement and is traded on the level of 1.35610.

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