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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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    19 November 2013: Investors Started To Doubt Correctness Of Growth Of Stock Indices

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate decrease in the main indices, and the index of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded for the first time to a level of 16 000 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, in turn, during the session, exceeded a level of 1800 points for the first time. Investors started to have concerns related to the ability of the markets to continue its rally up.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised by 0.09% to the level of 15976.02 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0.37% to a level of 1791.53 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus on 0.93% and reached a level of 3949.07 points. Nasdaq lost much more than the other indices, because the IT sector has been under strong pressure. In particular, Facebook and Twitter lost more than 6% of capitalization.

    The Asian markets, following the American session, bargained without essential dynamics. The index of the industrial companies of continental China in Hong Kong, again showed an increase over 1.00%, and for three trading sessions already grew by 10.00%. Meanwhile, statistics were published which showed that growth of volume of direct foreign investments in China slowed down to 5.77% in October, from 6.2% in September. In Japan, on the contrary, the market appeared under pressure because of strengthening of the Yen, which is more expensive again and is on a level over 100 Yen per Dollar. Nikkei 225 closed the trading session with a decrease of 0.25% at a level of 15126.56 points, and Chinese Shanghai Composite lost 0.18% reaching a level of 2193.13 points.

    The commodity market in many respects ignored the Chinese positive because of a proceeding rise in prices for real estate in the country. Growth in October on average made 8.78% in annual expression which could become a reason for the next drastic measures in monetary policies. Gold again decreased in price, this morning winning a bit back, adding 0.13% and traded on a price of 1273.91$ per troy ounce. Reserves of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 4.2 tons to 864.51 ton. This is the lowest value of reserves of fund since February 2009, when incentives of FRS only were expected. However, the price for the metal at that time was much lower, in the range of 900.00$ - 950.00$ for troy ounce. Brent was down by 0.38% at the price of 108.06$ per barrel, WTI is down by 0.15% at level of 93.54$ per barrel.

    Today current conditions and economic expectations of ZEW of Germany, and Employment Cost Index in the USA are going to be published.

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    20 November 2013: The Markets Are Captured By A Wave Of Profit Taking

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Tuesday’s trading session ended in the red zone. Investors are gradually preparing for two key events of the current week – statistical data on retail sales, and the protocol of the last meeting of the FOMC. Whats interesting, is that the results can have multidirectional impact on the direction of the Dollar, and it is not clear which one of these releases will have a bigger influence.

    The last report on retails showed a decrease in the consumer demand, many aspects confirm that this time markets could be disappointed. Published reports of Redbook on activity of buyers in shopping centers, showed that sales slowed, and retailers should fight for each buyer. Researches of Bloomberg agency already prophesy that the current season of purchases could become the most low-active since 2009. So, if data on retails is going to be really weak, even the positive spirit of representatives of the FOMC regarding the last meeting won't be able to return belief in the USD.

    Meanwhile, the Euro won’t be able to use the situation with the weakening Dollar for it’s benefit, if the PMI and IFO data will also confirm that growth rates in the largest economic system of Europe decreased. If PMI and IFO data show the same, the couple should give everything earned lately. As for today, the closest level to break is based on the area of 1.3550, the next purpose is located in the field of 1.3590.

    Going back to the American session, following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed in a 0.06% minus on the level 15967.03 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down by 0.20% to the level of 1787.87 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq receded by 0.44% to a level of 3919.92 points.

    Prices of commodities in the commodity market remain weak. Brent is on 107.11$ per barrel, WTI on 94.21$ per barrel, gaining 0.17% and 0.34% accordingly. Gold is flat on 1273.53$ per troy ounce, and Silver is increasing by 0.35% traded on a level of 20.40$. Since the beginning of the year, quotations of Oil fell by 4%, Gold on 24%, Silver on 33%, and Platinum on 8%. Prices can be restored only if the world economy is going to lift up, and not the solution of the Chinese plenum on the reforming of the economy. Results of reforms will be shown only in years to come, and now, for example, Oil lowering factors are restoration of export of Oil from Libya, and a possible exit of Oil from Iran to the world markets as a result of weakening of sanctions.

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    21 November 2013: The minutes of FOMC damped an ardor of the markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Thursday, the American market finished trading session with a moderate decrease. If at the beginning of the session we could observe speculative purchases supported by published data on inflation and Ben Bernanke's "soft” comments, after an exit of protocols of last FED meeting - market handed over positions and went to a minus. In the protocol of the last meeting of FED was stated that the Central Bank expects improvement of a macroeconomic picture, which in turn gives the grounds for reduction of the program of quantitative easing. The president of FED of Saint Louis, James Bullard, in his speech also noted that the question of reduction of monthly purchases is already in the agenda of the meeting in December.

    The macroeconomic indicators which have been published yesterday were of the mixed character as well. On the one hand consumer inflation made 1,7% that below a target rate of inflation required by FED, and sale of houses in the secondary market decreased by 3,2% to 5,12 million, but on the other hand, retails showed growth by 0,4% at average expectations of 0,1%. Production stocks increased by 0,6% at average forecasts of 0,3%.

    As a result, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index decreased for 0,41% to a level of 15900,82 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down for 0,36% to level of 1781,37 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq receded for 0,26% to a level of 3921,27 points.

    Commodities also continued to fall, price of oil is decreasing this morning for 0,34% on Brent and 0,30% on WTI traded on 107,69$ and 93,57$ per barrel accordingly. Gold and silver are significantly down, with gold losing 0,93% at level of 1246,29$ and silver down for 0,85% at price of 19,89$ per troy ounce.

    From the statistics which is going to be published today it is worth paying attention to the PMI indexes in production sector and sector of services of the Eurozone and Germany in particular, and production PMI in the USA. Also will be published data on primary requests for an unemployment benefit in the USA, and the bank committee of the Senate of the USA will vote for Janet Yelen's candidate as the new head of FED in the USA.

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    22 November 2013: Positive Statistical Data Is Pushing Quotations Up

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday was a very saturated day, published statistical data wise. Macroeconomic statistical data from China in the morning did not bring many positive's to the market. Data on business activity in the industries calculated by HSBC bank in November decreased by 0.5 points from the level of the previous month, and made 50.4 points.

    Results in Europe were much more positive. Presented preliminary data on business activity in the manufacturing sphere in the Eurozone, made 51.56 points, which completely coincided with expectations of experts. In Germany, the index reached a level of 52.5 points, when 52 points were predicted. Also, today PMI preliminary results were published for the services industry, the indicator in the Eurozone made 50.9 points at a predicted 51.9 points, and in Germany, 54.5 points, whereas 53 points were expected.

    In the USA, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits was presented. For the last week, 323 thousand were recorded against an expected 335 thousand. The previous value was reconsidered from 339 thousand to 344 thousand. The price index of producers in October decreased by 0.2%, but it was not a surprise for participants of the market. The worse development was observed in the Fed Manufacturing index of Philadelphia, whereby the index in November made just 6.5 points, at an expected 15 points. Market indices of the USA in the first half of the auction grew up.

    As a result, the trading session finished with the Dow Jones adding 0.69% traded on a level of 16009.99 points. S&P 500 increased by 0.81% reaching a level of 1795.85 points, and Nasdaq grew by 1.22% to the level of 3969.15 points.

    In the meantime, Oil rose in price as well, to maximum levels this month, owing to favorable data on employment, and the increased demand for gasoline and diesel fuel. Price for WTI during yesterday’s trading session increased by 1.7% to level of 95.44$ per barrel, Brent jumped by 1.87% to a price of 110.08$.

    In turn, Gold continues to lose in price in connection with expectations of the reduction of volumes of financial stimulation of the economy from the FED, on one of the subsequent meetings. The price of Gold fell for another 1.1% to value of 1243.60$ for troy ounce.

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    25 November 2013: Iran Acquired The Right To Use Nuclear Power Which Pushed Commodities Down

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Long-awaited safe permission of the situation with Iran became one of the main events of last weekend. After almost 10 years, on November 24th, on the last round of negotiations the compromise was found in Geneva. Six international intermediaries (the Russian Federation, the USA, the People's Republic of China, Great Britain, France and Germany) recognized the right of Iran to use nuclear power in peace purposes on the condition of it being controlled from IAEA. Within the signed arrangement, there is the right of Iran to peace atom, including the right to enrichment, at the understanding that this program will be put under the strictest control of the IAEA. The U.S. President, Barack Obama, urged the congress of the USA to refrain from introduction of new sanctions against Iran due to the achievement of arrangements in Geneva. According to Mr.Obama, the agreement represents the first step in a solution which will create space and time for achievement of further arrangements according to the nuclear program of Iran.

    It isn't clear yet how all stock markets will react to this news, but the Oil market precisely after such statements, will certainly have a correction. This morning, Brent is losing 2.63% traded on a level of 108.13$ and Light is down by 1.39% at a price of 93.52$ per barrel.

    No less, an interesting situation continues to develop in the market of precious metals. On the basis of the development of the deflationary process in Japan, Europe and the USA, Gold and Silver, for already more than a year, continue to decrease and its over soft monetary policy of the central banks and artificially increased liquidity. Fears about fast reduction of the program of monetary easing by FED only strengthen a negative view of precious metals.

    From a technical point of view, Gold, for already more than a year, is in a descending trend, and we cannot see even one sign which will show the turn of the trend. Recently, Gold has been going through the important technical level on 1250.00$ and now the most expected outcome is the level of 1200.00$ per troy ounce. These levels could be taken into consideration for the opening of long positions. It is worth noting that the cost of Gold mining now on average makes 1100.00-1200.00$, therefore we will hardly see a collapse of quotations lower than 1100.00$.

    This morning, Gold is down by 0.97% at a price of 1232.10$ per troy ounce. Silver is also under strong pressure, decreasing by 1.13% and bargaining next to the level of 19.64$ per troy ounce.

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    26 November 2013: Investors Are Trying To Avoid Taking Action

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Key stock indices of Europe showed positive dynamics supported by the agreement on control of the nuclear program in Iran. So, Iran refused uranium enrichment for the next six months in exchange for mitigation of the economic sanctions concerning export of Oil, cars and precious metals. Based on that, following the results of the trading session the key index of Great Britain, the FTSE 100, increased by 0.3%.The French CAC 40 became 0.55% heavier, and the German DAX went to a plus by 0.88%.

    The American market has also started the first day of the trading week on a positive note, but by the end of the day, indices showed different results. The S&P index shows growth for the last seven weeks, supported by the idea of preservation of volume of the program of quantitative easing by the FED. "The day before it became known that a number of banks made the statement that if FED will start to cut the quantitative program and will make interest on deposits negative, banks will start to take money from clients for bank deposits”, - the experts make comments, noting that this information justifies a turn in Oil and Gold, and also the equity market can receive the next portion of free cash.

    Following the results of the trading session, the Dow Jones index added 0.04% and reached a level of 16072.54 points, S&P decreased by 0.12%, to the level of 1802.48 points, Nasdaq appeared in a plus for 0.07% and made 3994.57 points.

    Asian markets this morning are moving in a different direction too. Japanese Nikkei is going down by 0.11%, correcting after a four-day growth against the strengthening Yen in relation to the Dollar. The Chinese Shanghai Composite grew by 0.01%, the Korean KOSPI added 0.14%, the Hong Kong HANG SENG grew by 0.21%.

    Prices of commodities restored losses we witnessed yesterday. Brent is traded on 110.59$ per barrel, Light is up to 94.46$ per barrel. Gold is increasing by 1.00% and is on the level of 1253.64$ per troy ounce. Silver managed to return back to the level above 20.00$ adding 1.41% and is traded on a price of 20.16$ per troy ounce.

    Today there is not going to be a lot of important macroeconomic statistical data published. Important data to pay attention to is the release of September’s data on quantity of new buildings in the USA, where growth to 908 thousand houses is predicted.

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    27 November 2013: Nasdaq Subdued The Level Of 4000 Points

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main stock indices. The Standard & Poor's 500 index managed to keep over the level of 1800 points, whereas the index of blue chips Dow Jones is traded over the level of 16 000 points.

    A considerable volume of statistics, which caused mixed reaction in the markets, were published yesterday. Housing prices in 20 capital regions of the USA in 12 months with the termination in September, increased to the maximum size since February 2006, which signals improvement on the housing market. Moreover, the number of permissions for construction of houses in October increased by 6.2%, which was more than expected. At the same time, data on the index of consumer confidence for November disappointed investors, the indicator, contrary to expectations, decreased from the reconsidered 72.4 points to 70.4 points, whereas retreat only to 72.9 points was expected.

    Let's note that in the last half an hour of the trading session, indices reduced the obtained gain almost to zero as institutional investors tried to consider changes in structures of the MSCI indices coming into force. Despite that, the index of the hi-tech sector Nasdaq Composite managed to finish the session above the level of 4000 points for the first time since 2000.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average finished on the same price as the previous day at the level of 16072.80 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.1% to a level of 1802.75 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to a plus on 0.58% and reached the level of 4017.75 points.

    Commodities prices are stable, Brent is adding 0.06% and is traded on a level of 110.95$ per barrel. WTI is down by 0.25% at price of 93.45$. Gold and Silver are adding 0.39% and 0.32% accordingly, traded on a level of 1246.20$ and 19.91$ per troy ounce.

    Due to the celebration of Thanksgiving Day tomorrow, traditional weekly demands for unemployment benefits will be published today. Surprises are not expected, after the jump due to the budgetary crisis to 370 thousand, for weeks in a row now it has tended to decrease. The last value made 323 thousand, which, historically, is a rather low level.

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    28 November 2013: The US Market Is Going To Be Closed In Honor Of Thanksgiving Day Celebration

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate growth of the main stock indices. Indices were getting support from the published macroeconomic statistical data, and the hi-tech sector looked better than the market due to the successful reporting of Hewlett-Packard. The price of shares of the producer of the computer equipment, Hewlett-Packard, jumped up by 9.1% against the publication of the quarterly report. The company revenue in three months decreased from $29.96 billion a year earlier, to $29.1 billion whilst analysts expected only $27.8 billion.

    Let’s be reminded that according to the published data, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits for last week was reduced from the reconsidered 326 thousand, to 316 thousand, whereas an increase to 330 thousand was expected. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in November decreased more than was expected to 63 points, average forecasts being at the level of 60, and the index of consumer confidence of university of Michigan for the current month, showed an increase from 72 points to 75.1, although an increase of only 73.5 points was expected. Disappointment occurred due to data on orders for long using goods for October. The indicator was reduced by 2%, which was slightly stronger than expectations.

    So, successful confluence of encouraging macroeconomic statistics helped all three stock indices of the USA to go over some important trading levels. Even the trading volumes were lower than usual yesterday, due to the upcoming Thanksgiving Day, when the exchanges will be closed.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised by 0.15% to the level of 16097.33 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.25% to a level of 1807.23 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0.67% and reached the level of 4044.75 points.

    In the commodity market, Brent is adding in price and has managed to go over the level of 111.00$. This morning, Brent is traded on a price of 111.42$ per barrel, and increasing by 0.09%. Light, at the same time, is falling in price, traded on the price of 92.22$ per barrel and decreasing by 0.08%. Gold and Silver are stable in the levels metals were yesterday. Gold is up by 0.09% on a level of 1238.95$ per troy ounce, Silver is up by 0.11% at price of 19.66$ per troy ounce.

    As for the EUR/USD currency pair, the Euro continues to become stronger. EUR/USD had basis to continue strengthening as since the morning, the markets received news that Angela Merkel's block could create a coalition with the social democrats. It was quite an expected event, however this still encouraged demand for the pair. There was positive growth of the indicator of business climate in Germany. The index became stronger to 7.4 from the previous 7.1, which also played a supporting role. Today we shall pay attention to the labor market of Germany, and if the indicators will be positive again, the pair will be able to resume growth with the next purpose on 1.3640.

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    29 November 2013: Investors Begin To Guess When The Rally In The Market Of The USA Will End

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday the trading session in Europe was rather quiet with just a small increase of the main indices. The statistics, which were published yesterday had a moderately positive character. So, unemployment in Germany in November appeared at the level of expectations and didn't change in comparison with to the previous month – 6.9%. The index of business climate in the Eurozone considerably surpassed the forecast, and made 0.18 points instead of the expected 0.03 points. The consumer price index in Germany in November also appeared to be slightly higher than expectations, which should weaken deflationary fears. As a result, the index of the London stock exchange FTSE 100, grew by 0.08%, the index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40, by 0.22%, and the index of the Frankfurt stock exchange DAX, by 0.39%.

    Asian indices did not show uniform dynamics this morning. Unemployment in Japan for October appeared above expectations of the market and made 4%. The consumer price index coincided with forecasts and made 0.9%. As a result, the Japanese Nikkei decreased by 0.41%, and the Korean KOSPI, by 0.24%. Shanghai Composite grew by 0.07%, and the Hang Seng by 0.2%.

    Participants of the world market, independently from the stock market they are trading in, now follow the American stock market with close attention. Everybody is interested in the outcome of the record rally of the US stock indices seen this year. That it will continue, everyone doubts, trees don't grow to heavens! Consequences of this outcome will be felt by the US, as well as all other stock markets.

    Be reminded that on Sunday night preliminary estimates of the season of sales in America will become known, and there is a big share of probability that demand of consumers this year will be weaker, and the data on the whole will show negative results, which certainly could lead to correction. This is basis to believe that next week we will see the beginning of the correction on the American and other world stock markets.

    Friday becomes a rather busy day from the point of view of macroeconomic statistics. Early in the morning, Japanese data confirmed preservation of annual inflation at the level of 1.1%, which is a good signal for the government which has set a purpose to overcome long-term deflation for stimulation of business activity in the country. In the European region the main data to be published this week, indicators of the labor market, and we expect at least a minor improvement of the coefficient of unemployment.

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    02 December 2013: “Christmas Rally” - To Be, Or Not To Be?!

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    We are entering December, the last month of 2013. The current week is the first working week of the new month, and therefore will be traditionally saturated with important macroeconomic statistics and events, capable to have an essential impact on the stock, commodities and currencies markets, and also will set the mood of investors for all of December. Very soon we will be able to judge whether participants of the markets will be able to see a traditional “Christmas rally" or, after this year, December will become a correctional month at stock markets.

    The external background at the beginning of the week can be described as poorly negative. The trading session in the US on Friday came to an end with the indices reaching different results. The traditional season of Christmas sales started on Friday in America, which pushed prices of the American retailers considerably up. Retail sales is a key factor of the national economy of the US, as two thirds of business activity are based on consumer expenses.

    Usually during the Christmas period, the trading companies receive up to 40% of annual revenue. According to data of ComScore, online sales on "Black Friday" increased by 15%, and reached a record of $1.2 billion, thus for the first 29 days of the festive season, which begun on November 1, the general Internet sales made $20.6 billion which was 3.1% higher than data of the same period of last year. It should be noted that online purchases on Thanksgiving Day, grew, in turn, by 21% to $766 million.

    However, only Nasdaq managed to finish the trading day in "a green zone", which added 0.37% and finished trading day at the level of 4059.89 points. Dow Jones lost 0.07% falling down to the level of 16086.41 points, and S&P 500 lost 0.08% decreasing to 1805.81 points.

    Asian platform this morning are prevailing "bear" moods. The index of the Chinese stock market Shanghai Composite decreases by 0.82% after the publication of the corrected data on business activity in the country industry. So, according to the estimates of HSBC, PMI value in November made 50.8 points, when 50.4 points were declared earlier. NBS recalculation didn't bring any unpleasant surprises. The indicator remained at the level of 51.4 points. Also, Korean KOSPI decreases on Monday by 0.6%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng manages to grow up 0.54%.

    In the commodities market, Oil is more or less on the levels reached last week. Brent bargains at the level of $109.68 for barrel adding in price 0.31%, Light is up by 0.47%, at the level of 93.45$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are losing their value in price. Gold is down for 0.32% at the level of 1246.35$ per troy ounce, and Silver is decreasing by 0.89% at the price of 19.86$ per troy ounce.

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