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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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    03 December 2013: Statistics In The USA Didn't Inspire Investors On Rally Continuation

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, the American stock market finished the trading session with a moderate fall due to profit fixing. Most likely, after a few advantageous weeks, investors decided to take a break before the FED meeting in December. The good figures published on the industry didn't inspire purchases.

    As it became known from the ISM report, the American industry unexpectedly grew in November, and the index of economic conditions of ISM in the production sphere jumped to 57.3 points from 56.4 points, while a decrease to 55 points was predicted. Yesterday there were also statistics published on expenses on construction for 2 months at once. In September, the indicator was reduced by 0.3%, but in October it showed a 0.8% growth at average expectations of 0.4%.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips", the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed with a minus of 0.48% on a level of 16008.77 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 went down by 0.27% to the level of 1800.90, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq, receded by 0.36% to a level of 4045.26 points. The current level of 1800 points for S&P 500 seems to be attracting a high volume and number of market participants, and thus we assume that a move from this level will be prompt and rather strong.

    The trading session on the Asian platforms takes place mainly in the red zone. Independently stands the Japanese Nikkei, growing due to the falling Yen. An important event for the markets has been the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the interest rate at the level of 2.5%, at the same time other comments of the regulator were painted in rather negative colors.

    Prices of Oil this morning are stable on the levels reached yesterday. Brent is flat traded on a level of 111.04$ per barrel, and WTI is adding 0.34% in value, traded on a level of 94.42$ per barrel. Precious metals fell under essential pressure at the beginning of the week. Quotations of Gold lost more than 2.5%, and Silver almost 4%. This morning, Gold and Silver are again losing in price, Gold is decreasing by 0.03% at a price of 1221.60$ per troy ounce, Silver is down by 0.17% at the level of 19.26$ per troy ounce.

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    04 December 2013: Oil Quotations Showed Growth Waiting For OPEC Meeting

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Participants of the markets are again beginning to worry about the possible turning of the stimulating programs by the FED in the USA possibly in December, due to the improvement of statistics on the American labor market. The American indices closed the third trading session in a row in "the red zone". The negative is connected with the recognition of that the city of Detroit could become, on an official basis, bankrupt, and it creates precedent for other cities as well.

    As a result, the Dow Jones index lost 0.59% and dropped below the level of 16000.00 to 15914.62 points. S&P decreased by 0.32% to a level of 1795.15 points, giving up the psychologically important level of 18000.00 points. Nasdaq appeared in a minus for 0.19% at the level of 4037.20 points.

    Asian stock markets mainly stayed in the negative territory, following the American indices as important statistics, which could've given support to Asian platforms, weren't published. It should be noted that the Chinese Shanghai Composite index shows strengthening of positions, despite statements of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping that target indicators of growth of the economy next year could be lowered to 7%, from the present 7.5%. Support to the Chinese Shanghai Composite is given by the publication of the index of business activity in the services sector according to the HSBC version, which showed an insignificant decrease to 52.5 points.

    Oil quotations on Tuesday showed growth waiting for the meeting of member countries of OPEC, moreover, “black gold” is supported by news regarding the fast start of part of the Keystone Oil pipeline in the USA. Meanwhile, the minister of Oil of Libya, Abdulbari Al Arusi, declared on Wednesday that the country will restore Oil production in full, within 10 days. This news could put pressure on Oil prices, which managed to increase during the trading session yesterday.

    Brent managed to increase to the level of 112.24$ per barrel, adding this morning 0.09%, WTI is leading with an increase of 1.15% up to the level of 97.34$ per barrel.

    This week markets are waiting for important macroeconomic data on November unemployment, and the revised data on gross domestic product in the USA for the third quarter. Moods of investors will depend on that data for the near-term outlook. Also, today figures on Oil stocks in the USA will be published.

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    05 December 2013: The End Of The Year In The Markets Promises To Be hot!

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Wednesday, the American stock markets closed the trading session in a minus against speculation over the QE3 program turning already in December. The main sign and, probably, the only reason for renewal of conversations on repayment of bonds, was the indicator of employment of ADP for the November, which considerably exceeded forecasts of experts of 173 thousand and made 215 thousand. In case of high data on the labor market of the USA, which will be published on Friday, most likely, we are going to see a fascinating ending to the year, thus in November hearings about reduction of volume of repayment of bonds practically weren't conducted.

    Meanwhile, some other important statistical indicators appeared to be worse than market forecasts, which also had its influence and did not allow indices to lose much more in value. First of all, we will pay attention to the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere for November, which fell from 55.4 in October, to 53.9, whilst analytics were predicting 55. Deficiency of trade balance of the country, in turn, appeared above expectations of economists of $40 billion, and made $40.64 billion. The statistics on sales of new houses in the USA, published the previous day for 2 months, due to closure of government offices in October, also did not bring anything positive to the markets. For October, the indicator slightly exceeded forecasts of analysts, and in September, it was much lower than expectations.

    As a result, the indicator of "blue chips", the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, decreased by 0.16% and was closed on a level of 15 889.8 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus by 0.13% to the level of 1 792.81 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, grew by 0.02% to a level of 4 038 points.

    Oil isn't ready to lose the positions and tries to keep at levels reached at the beginning of the week. Light this morning is adding 0.05%, and is traded on a level of 97.48$. Brent is slightly down on 0.27% on a level of 111.13$ per barrel. Precious metals oppositely are losing in price, Gold is decreasing by 0.67% at a price of 1238.80$ per troy ounce, Silver is down by 0.88% at price of 19.66$ per troy ounce.

    After yesterday's block of statistics in the USA, all attention gradually switches over to actions of the Central Banks. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are going to have meetings today. If the English regulator can keep the status quo, everybody is waiting for continuation on monetary policy mitigation from the European Central Bank.

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    06 December 2013: The Markets Are Waiting For Evening Statistics From The USA

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Again the markets appeared under oppression of the expected reduction of QE3. Investors expect that the FED will make the decision to reduce the volume of the program of quantitative easing at the meeting of the FOMC in December. The question of reduction of the program of quantitative stimulation will be discussed at the FED meeting, which will take place on the 17th-18th of December, which was declared by the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart. He does not have a voting right and didn't express his opinion regarding QE3 program reduction, however, he declared that if the decision will be taken, it is worth beginning to think about the start of the recovery of the economy of the country.

    The block of statistical data which was published yesterday was negative, from the point of view of a toughening of the policy by the FED. In the 3rd quarter, the economy of the US showed maximal levels of growth since the beginning of 2012. Gross domestic product of the country grew by 3.6%, though earlier it was reported about growth of only 2.8%. Analysts expected revision of growth of the American gross domestic product to be 3.1%. The number of demands for unemployment benefits in the USA last week was reduced by 23 thousand and made 298 thousand, expected growth being at 4 thousand. Today we expect important data on November unemployment in the USA. These figures are going to be the main influencing factor which is going to set the mood of investors until the upcoming FED meeting.

    Nevertheless, the spirit in the Asian markets since the morning was moderately positive. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose by 0.2%. Nikkei added nearly 1%. Yesterday, European stock markets drifted in neutral territory at the opening of the trading session, but by the end of the day, the American statistics and Draghi’s statement pushed them to go down. FTSEurofirst 300 lost 0.96%, IBEX index in Spain decreased by 1.56% and FTSE MIB in Italy lost 1.75%. The bank of England and the European Central Bank left interest rates without change. Draghi, also during his press-conference, reported that the European Central Bank is ready to act further, but did not decide yet what kind of actions to choose. Comments of Draghi provoked sharp strengthening of the Euro.

    This morning, EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3658 points. Brent is up by 0.34% at price of 110.94$, WTI is up by 0.09% at the price of 97.70$. Gold and Silver are flat at the levels of 1231.91$ and 19.55$ per troy ounce accordingly.

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    09 December 2013: The Positive Statistics Inspired Investors

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.



    On Friday the 6th of December, the American statistical bodies published a lot of the major American macroeconomic indicators. Despite the importance of each of them, the greatest interest was represented by the results of a detailed inspection of the national labor market, which is a priority for the assessment of the current state and prospects of the American economy. The central place was taken by the employment in the non-agricultural sector of the country.

    Monthly extension of pay-sheets in the non-agricultural sector in November was estimated at 180-185 thousand, but actual growth was significantly higher than the predicted limits and made 203 thousand. Audits underwent the previous data on increase in employment in this sector. In November, the private sector added 196 thousand new regular positions, being expected at 180 thousand.

    Afterwards, the focus of attention shifted towards another very significant indicator - a preliminary index of consumer confidence of Michigan university, which, in December, grew 82.5 points from 75.1 points in November, to the maximum level since July. Analysts were predicting a more modest advance to 76.0 points. Improvement of the consumer spirit of Americans and their readiness to strengthen consumer activity, was promoted by a certain improvement of the economic situation and encouraging shifts on the labor markets in the USA.

    Thankfully, due to all this data, on Friday we could see the long-awaited change in the moods of the investors, who, lately, were having doubts regarding the inevitable approaching terms of reduction of volumes of financial stimulation from the FED. This time, players reacted to successful statistics on employment and consumer confidence adequately, and the markets showed steady growth from the very beginning of the trading session. However, even with significant growth following the results of the day, it couldn't compensate for the loss of the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices that interrupted their long advantageous series of 8 weeks.

    As a result, the Dow Jones industrial average index raised by 1.26% to 16020.20 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 index increased by 1.12%, having closed at the level of 1805.09 points, and the Nasdaq Composite index raised on 0.73% to value of 4062.52 points.

    The price of Gold this morning continues to fall, and Gold is traded on a level of 1227.84$. Silver is also losing 0.09% in value being at a price of 19.51$ per troy ounce. Investment appeal of Gold as a form of 'safe' investment, decreased against encouraging American data on employment.

    Oil prices in the meantime managed to keep their gains and this morning continue to show positive dynamics. Brent is on a level of 111.34$ per barrel, increasing by 0.11%; WTI is up by 0.08% on a level of 97.98$ per barrel. Oil increased in price against very positive data on the American labor markets and consumer confidence, which gives strong grounds to count on an increase in demand for energy carriers. For the last week, the total increase of prices for Oil made 5.3%, which is the best result since July.

    The main event of this week is going to be the report on retails for November, which will be published on Thursday. Participants will gradually be preparing for the meeting of FED planned for December 17-18. Respectively, we should very closely follow the speech of the "FED’s loud-hailer" - James Bullard - who, today, will address the representatives of the CFA association.

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    10 December 2013: Markets Move Carefully Before FED Meeting

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The stock markets proceeded with careful growth. In the morning, the quotation of risky assets were supported by data on growth of the Chinese export in November by 12.7% after a growth of 5.6% in October. This data was regarded not only as positive for the economy, but also as a testimony of growing world demand. It should be noted that investors aren't rushing to draw conclusions about an early beginning of turning of stimulating measures from the FED, after obtaining strong data on gross domestic product of the USA for the III quarter, and strong statistics on the American labor market in November. So, the index of the wide market S&P 500 reached a new historical record yesterday.

    As a result of the trading session, the Dow Jones increased by 0.03% up to the level of 16025.53 points. Nasdaq added 0.15% and reached a level of 4068.75 points, and S&P 500 increased by 0.18% up to the level of 1808.37 points.

    Yesterday, markets also heard the opinion of two representatives of the FED, both of them being relatively positive. There was a statement from the head of FED of Saint Louis, James Bullard, who, in the current year, has the right to vote at meetings. He reported that the latest improvements on the labor market increase the probability of fast reduction of stimulating measures, however, these actions have to be undertaken carefully, as inflation is at minimum levels. The statement from the head of FED of Dallas, Richard Fischer, who will acquire a vote for FOMC next year were surer. He called the current time 'suitable' to start the turning of volumes of QE, however, he also explained that any operations of the regulator have to proceed in the conditions of full clarity and transparency for the markets.

    According to recent polls of Bloomberg, about 34% of economists and analysts expect the beginning of turning of volumes of quantitative incentives at the December meeting, thus the vast majority is sure that at the end of the I quarter 2014, the volume of purchases of assets from the FED will be less than the current 85 billion Dollars a month.

    The beginning of the new week in the commodity markets was negative, pressure on which has been amplified due to a number of objective reasons. Quotations of Oil and the majority of metals considerably decreased yesterday after the publication of statistical data from China and Germany. The volume of import to China in November slowed down in growth rates from 7.6% to 5.3% in annual expression. Besides, industrial production volume in Germany in October unexpectedly decreased to a minimum since May values, having fallen by 1.2% in September against forecasts of growth of 0.9%. Additional pressure upon Oil quotations was observed, due to the first meeting which begun in Vienna, of experts of Iran and six other countries, concerning development of mechanisms of implementation of the interim agreement reached at the end of November.

    Brent is traded on a level of 109.63$ per barrel adding 0.45%, WTI is on a price of 97.95$ per barrel increasing by 0.40%. Gold is up by 0.87% at price of
    1244.98$ per troy ounce, and Silver is trying to get back what was lost last week, and is up by 1.22%, at a price of 19.94$ per troy ounce.

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    12 December 2013: Markets Continue Their Correctional Movement

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The global markets are decreasing for the second day in a row. Strong macroeconomic statistics in the USA, which were published recently, and progress in budgetary negotiations, gave investors the idea that the FED could start cutting the program of quantitative easing next week.

    Republicans and Democrats managed to agree about a cut in expenditure on defence yesterday, and on other expenses for the next two years. Even figures on expenses, which parties managed to come to consensus, are insignificant. It is an exceptional case when parties agree in principle. Nevertheless, the speech did not mention neither about a change of the ceiling of the national debt, nor about any motions concerning Obama's medical reform, and the probability of a new stop of government organizations in February, still remains. The markets regarded news from the White House as a reason for careful sales, after all, harmonious work of the Government means faster carrying out of reforms and effective work of the economy, so it can be expected that artificial incentives will be required less. But more likely it is worth speaking only about a reason for correction, instead of the real reason of decrease.

    During yesterday's trading session, the American stock indices suffered considerable losses. As per the results of the trading day, indices of the US overtook the European indices on rates of decrease. The S&P 500 index showed the maximum loss in the last month, having decreased by 1.13% and closed the trading session on a level of 1782.22 points. Dow Jones lost 0.81%, reaching a level of 15843.53 points, and Nasdaq decreased by 1.4% up to the level of 4003.81 points. In the meantime, The British FTSE 100 lost just 0.24%, the German DAX - 0.41%, the French CAC 40 - 0.1%.

    This morning, the situation continues to be aggravated. The trading session in Asia passed with big losses. Futures for indices are also decreasing. The meeting of the FED will take place next week and up to this point, the markets will remain highly volatile.

    Commodities quotations are only changing slightly. Gold, near the level of 1250,00$ for troy ounce, does not impress long-term investors. Reserves of SPDR Gold Trust were reduced by 2.1 ton to 833.6 ton. Data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA on stocks, repeated statistics of API. For the last week, commercial stocks of Oil decreased by 10.6 million barrels to 375.2 million barrels. Brent this morning is traded on a price of 109.51$ per barrel, and WTI is at the level of 97.64$ per barrel.

    Today is rich in macroeconomic statistics. During the day data on industrial production in the Eurozone will be published. Data on the import/export prices, retails, and primary requests for unemployment benefit in the USA will be also presented.

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    16 December 2013: Fears Regarding Reduction Of QE Continue To Rein Over The US Stock Market

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The forthcoming week promises to be the most interesting of all leaving 2013. The head of the FED, Ben Bernanke, will carry out, probably, the last meeting as the chairman and nobody excludes the possibility that he could finish his 7-year term with the beginning of the turn of stimulating measures. Undoubtedly, even the probability of such an outcome already pressed on the dynamics of stock markets, and the prospect to chop off New Year's rally could force Bernanke to reduce buying up volumes by only a symbolical sum. However, even in that case, it will be enough to return demand for the US Dollar, especially against the Yen and the British Pound.

    The stock market of the USA spent Friday in the lateral range, having finished the trading session with minimum changes. However, that decrease, which the American stock indices showed for the past week, for 1.5-1.7%, was the maximum for the last 2 months. The sector of health care and telecoms appeared to be the outsiders of the week, among the different sectors.

    As the result, the trading session came to an end with the Dow Jones adding 0.1% and reaching the level of 15755.36 points, S&P decreasing by 0.01% to the level of 1775.32 points, and Nasdaq growing by 0.06% to the level of 4000.97 points. Sales also were caused by the publication of preliminary data on the index of business activity in the industry according to HSBC - the indicator decreased from 50.8 points in November to 50.5 points in December.

    Leading stock indices of Europe on Friday didn't show considerable changes. Following the results of the week they went down by 1.4-1.8% against macroeconomic statistics and corporate news in the Eurozone, which disappointed investors. Shares of the British insurance company RSA Insurance Group appeared to be the leader of the decline on Friday, having fallen by 7% after whispers of resignation of its executive director. Thus the British FTSE-100 index, having lost 1.7% in a week, showed a decrease for the sixth week in a row.

    During the day a rather low volume of macroeconomic statistics from abroad is expected. In France, there will be preliminary data on indices of business activity in the industry and in the services sector for December. Similar indices will be published in Germany, and in the Eurozone as a whole. In the USA, reconsidered November dynamics of labor productivity and industrial production for November, will be published later on during the day.

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    17 December 2013: The Stock Market Began The Week On A Positive Note

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with moderate growth of the main indices after the largest weeks loss since August. Since the beginning of the week, traders are concentrating on the upcoming meeting of the FED and trying to find in published macroeconomic statistics the key to the outcome of this meeting, and making their mind up if volumes of QE will actually be reduced or will be kept on the present levels. Be reminded that the beginning of cutting off the program of quantitative easing at Decembers meeting is expected by about a third of all economists, the others are still leaning towards the March meeting.

    As for the macroeconomic statistical data published yesterday, it became known that industrial production in November increased by 1.1% against average forecasts of growth of 0.5%. October growth rates of industrial production were reconsidered from -0.1% to 0.1%. Labor productivity increased in the third quarter by 3%, whereas an increase by 2.8% was expected.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average raised by 0.82% to the level of 15884.83 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.63% to a level of 1786.54 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a plus on 0.71% and reached the level of 4029.52 points.

    Leading stock indices of Europe on Monday also grew against favorable corporate news and macroeconomic statistics. One of the leaders of growth was the German DAX index which added 1.7% in the context of strong indicators of business activity in the industrial sector of Germany which were recently published. The corresponding PMI index of the production sector of Germany grew in December to maximum levels for the last 2.5 years, which says volumes about the essential increase of activity in the German industry, which could pull the entire European economy out of where it is, and into the positive zone, despite the worsening situation in France. The summary, the index of business activity of the Eurozone, characterizing the situation in the industry, and in the service sector, grew to 52.1 points from 51.7 points a month earlier, which testifies to proceeding towards the recovery of the European economy as a whole.

    In the commodity market, prices for Oil are slightly down and prices for precious metals are adding in value slightly. Brent is traded on a level of 109.32$ per barrel, and losing 0.08%, WTI is decreasing by 0.16%to the level of 97.61$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are up by 0.03% and 0.16% accordingly, bargaining next to the levels of 1244.76$ and 20.13$ per troy ounce.

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    18 December 2013: Today Promises To Be Hot!

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Today all the markets come to a head regarding the "QE-3 turning", and today we will be able to draw conclusions on their direction for the medium-term prospect. Unfortunately, it is never easy for the meeting of the Central Banks due to the fact that too many nuances can affect the dynamics of the financial markets: how accurately are the plans for the end of the program of stimulation of the economy going to be announced? what terms will be exposed? in what volumes will the reduction will be carried out? what kind of target points will be chosen by the FED in order to take actions? And so on.

    The latest macroeconomic data obviously testify in favor of the recovery of the economy of the USA, and given the current conditions, it will be difficult for the FED not to take any action. In fact, the QE-3 program reduction on 5-10 billion Dollars is already obviously included into the prices, and participants of the market are potentially ready for a similar event, and, if together with reduction of the program of repayment of assets, the target level on unemployment will be lowered to a level of 5.5%, it can be positively apprehended by the markets, as this fact will remove expectations of an increase of interest rates for almost another 2 years.

    Anyway, at the programmed reduction for an amount of not less than 10 billion Dollars, we will see a small short-term correction in all stock markets, and strengthening of the index of Dollar to all currencies. Furthermore, it is necessary to pay attention to debt market if growth of profitability on American bonds is going to be resumed with new force, which will mean that investors apprehended results of meeting of the FED negatively, and it is worth preparing for correction in stock markets as well.

    As for yesterday’s trading session, the American market finished the day in a minus. Investors’ opinions are still very different in relation to the decision of the FED, which will be announced in the evening, which stresses the markets and increases uncertainty. Investors prefer not to hurry in regards to their actions. Following the results of the trading session, the Dow Jones index went down by 0.06% to the level of 15875.26 points, S&P 500 decreased by 0.31% up to the level of 1781.00 points, Nasdaq lost 0.14% and reached the level of 4023.68 points.

    Oil decreased the day before on expectations of reduction of demand, and also growth of deliveries from the Middle East. Commercial stocks of Oil decreased last week by 2.5 million barrels. This morning Brent is losing 0.05% and is traded on a level of 108.38$ per barrel, WTI is up for 0.22% at the price of 97.68$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are up by 0.17% and 0.36% accordingly, bargaining at the prices of 1232.14$ and 19.91$ per troy ounce.

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