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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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    22 January 2014: The IMF Increased Forecasts On GDP

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The International Monetary Fund raised forecasts on growth rates of the world economy for the first time in the last two years, however, emphasized that the richest and most developed countries develop at the present moment with slower rates than they actually could. Besides, the IMF noted that deflationary risks remain to be on a high level.

    According to the updated estimates, world gross domestic product will increase by 3.7% in the current year, and then by 3.9% in 2015. We will remind you that in October, the growth of the world economy in 2014 was expected to be on a level of 3.6%. The IMF also improved the forecast for the USA from 2.6% to 2.8%, for China from 7.2% to 7.5%, and for Germany, from 1.4% to 1.6%.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips", the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed with a minus of 0.27% on the level of 16414.44 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 increased by 0.28% to the level of 1843.80 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, grew by 0.67% to the level of 4225.76 points.

    As for the European stock markets, the British FTSE 100 was reduced by 0.04%, the French CAC40 increased by 0.02%, and the German DAX got stronger by 0.15%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased by 0.1%, having closed on a level of 335.76 points.

    The indicator of economic moods in the Eurozone from the results of research carried out by the German institute ZEW, in January, grew to 73.3 points from 68.3 points in December. The same indicator for Germany, according to ZEW estimates, increased in January from 32.4 points a month earlier, to 41.2 points, whereas analysts expected 34.1 points.

    The price of WTI oil, following the results of the day on NYMEX, raised by 0.4% to the level of 94.97$ per barrel, and is continuing its growth today and increasing by 0.54% to the level of 95.66$ per barrel. Brent is up by 0.54%, traded on a level of 107.30$ per barrel. The prices of gold and silver are flat, with gold trading on a level of 1241.30$ per troy ounce, and silver bargaining next to the level of 19.89$ per troy ounce.

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    23 January 2014: Consolidation Proceeds In The Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Since the beginning of the week, at the key European and American exchanges, there has not been anything interesting happening. Yesterday, stock indices were moving in different directions, but in general they are consolidating next to the maximum levels of the last year. Optimistic forecasts regarding improvement of the economy of the developed countries this year, haven't given investors a reason to transfer to safer instruments, like gold or treasury bonds. The attention of the market is directed towards the upcoming meeting of the FED, which is going to be next week.

    Yesterday’s trading session in Europe came to an end with multidirectional movement of indices. The interest of investors was down to statistics on the labor market of Great Britain, the indicator made 7.1% instead of the expected 7.3%, however this data was not supporting indices for a long time. By closing, the English FTSE100 index decreased by 0.12%, the French CAC40 grew by 0.03%, and the German DAX decreased by 0.1%.

    In the USA, indices also couldn't show uniform dynamics, buyers nevertheless prevailed. Dow Jones decreased by 0.25% to the level of 16373.34 points, S&P 500 grew by 0.06% reaching the level of 1844.86 points, and Nasdaq Composite grew by 0.41% to the level of 4243.00 points.

    Data published this morning from China brought disappointment to the markets. The PMI index for the production sphere, counted by HSBC bank in January, fell to a level of 49.6 points, which is significantly weaker than the forecast of 50.3 points. Business activity in the country showed the first decrease for the last 6 months. Naturally, on Thursday morning, the markets reacted to this news negatively, and pushed Asian stock indices to go down, with Nikkei loosing 0.65%, ASX falling by 1.1% and CSI decreasing by 0.6%.

    Prices of oil managed to restore some loses and are showing positive dynamics. The international Power Agency raised the forecast of world consumption of oil to 1.3 million barrels per day. This morning, Brent is traded on a level of 108.25$ per barrel, WTI is up by 0.10% on the level of 96.83$ per barrel.

    Today, investors attention will be on statistics from Europe, where the data on the index of business activity in the industry and the services sector of Great Britain and the Eurozone, is going to be published. In the USA, payrolls for the last week, and data on oil stocks will be presented later on throughout the day.

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    24 January 2014: Markets Are Planning Correction Before Meeting Of FED

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, the main stock indices of the USA were traded in negative territory. During the day, data was presented from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on sales of houses in the secondary market, which showed that they did not change in December. According to the report, sales of existing houses grew in December by 1.0% in comparison with last month, having reached an annual level of 4.87 million units, when an increase to the level of 4.99 million units was forecast.

    Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips, Dow Jones Industrial Average, went down by 1.07% to the level of 16197.35 points. The index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0.89% to a level of 1828.46 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus on 0.57% and reached the level of 4218.87 points.

    In the currency market, during yesterday’s trading session, the EUR/USD pair grew by 170 points to the level of 1.3696, traded this morning on a level of 1.3673. The Euro got stronger after the publication of data on the PMI index in the Eurozone. The summary index of 18 countries of the Eurozone in January, grew to the level of 53.2 points, which is the highest level since June, 2011.

    Prices of gold sharply raised yesterday against the essential fall of the dollar, the price for a troy ounce added 2% and rose above the level of 1260,00$. This morning, prices of gold are flat and are traded with a small decrease of 0.23% on a level of 1259.36$ per troy ounce.

    Today’s trading day is not very interesting, from the publication of macroeconomic statistical data point, but the upcoming meeting of the FED is already having an influence on the moods in the markets. The upcoming meeting is the first meeting this year and the last meeting for Ben Bernanke. On the last meeting, he declared that the QE3 will probably be reduced at each subsequent meeting of the committee, but since that time a lot of news has been presented. Growth rates of employment were slowed down, a reduction of consumer demand in both the retail sector and the real estate sector has also been declared. The mass of doubt and uncertainty will most likely press on the American currency and the stock market up until the time of the next meeting.

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    27 January 2014: Meeting Of FED Will Start On Tuesday

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Friday, the trading session was exceptionally bad for the majority of the main stock markets of the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index showed the strongest fall since the 20th of June 2013, and lost 1.97%, reaching the level of 15879.11 points. The index lost 3.5% in a week, which became the worst week since November, 2011, with 4 days of decrease in a row. The S&P 500 decreased by 2.09%, reaching the level of 1790.29 points, and Nasdaq Composite lost 2.15% and finished the trading session on a level of 4128.17 points.

    The situation in the European stock exchanges did not differ, indices significantly lost in value. Following the results of the session, the key index of Great Britain, FTSE 100, went down by 1.6%, the French CAC 40 lost 2.8%, and the German DAX went to a minus by 2.5%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 2.4% and was closed on a level of 324.75 points.

    Mainly, markets are showing negative dynamics due to fears concerning further prospects of the development of the economy in China, the sale of currencies of developing countries, and also expectations of a new stage of turning of the QE program by the FED. Extremely large sales of currencies of developing countries began after the publication by HSBC (preliminary data on the index of business activity in the industry of China), which testify delay of growth rates of the economy.

    The situation in the Asian-Pacific Region this morning is following the American mood, Japanese Nikkei is losing around 2.51%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng is falling by more than 2%, and the Chinese Shanghai Composite is decreasing by 1.02%.

    This week will be rather saturated with corporate events. Within the week, quarterly results will be presented by all main IT giants, including Apple. As has been mentioned many times before, the meeting of the FED, which will start tomorrow, is going to become a main event of the week in the markets. Naturally, further direction of the markets will depend on volumes of reduction of the QE3 program. There are not a lot of statistics expected to be published today. Data on the labour market, and sales of new houses is going to be published in the U.S, and the Index of business climate of IFO will be presented in Germany.

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    28 January 2014: Today, All Attention Will Be Directed Towards The FED Meeting

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Monday, the stock market of the United States of America continued last weeks fall, and finished the trading day in the red zone. The reasons for pessimism in the markets more or less remain the same: fears concerning further prospects of development of the Chinese economy, and expectations of a new stage of turning of the QE3. The two day meeting of the FED begins today, and even by tomorrow participants of the market will be able to see the results.

    Following the results of the trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index weakened by 0.26% and was closed on a level of 15837.88 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus by 0.49% to the level of 1781.56 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, receded by 1.08% to the level of 4083.61 points.

    As for the European markets, even good statistics from Germany could not push European indices to go up, and the European platforms closed the trading session with a decrease. The index of business climate of IFO in Germany made 110.6 points, at the forecast of 110 points; the index of the current conditions didn't change, and the index of economic expectations grew to 108.9 points. As a result, DAX decreased by 0.46%, FTSE 100 fell to 1.7%, and CAC 40 lost 0.41%.

    This morning,Asian stock markets bargain in a small plus. Most likely, it is a correction after the long fall of the indices. Growth of the main indices is insignificant, within 0.1%, and markets are just flat. The Japanese Nikkei grows by 0.12%, the Korean KOSPI by 0.3%, the Shanghai Composite index adds 0.08% and the Hang Seng increases by 0.07%.The Australian index, on the contrary, shows decrease, led by falling of quotations of the largest mining companies of the world, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, due to fears of reduction of orders from China.

    The prices of commodities are stable. Brent this morning adds 0.18% and is traded on a level of 106.68$ per barrel, WTI is up by 0.08% on a level of 95.8$ per barrel. Gold is losing 0.24% and bargaining on a level of 1260.37$ per troy ounce, silver is up by 0.09% on a level of 19.81$ per troy ounce.

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    29 January 2014: Nervousness Is Increasing In The Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, the main stock indices of the United States showed positive dynamics and finished the trading session with an increase for the first time in the few last sessions. Published statistical data on the index of consumer confidence for January raised from 77.5 points in December to 80.7 points, whereas analysts expected only 78.1 points.

    Following the results of the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 0.57% and was closed on a level of 15928.56 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went to plus by 0.61% to the level of 1792.5 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, added 0.35% reaching the level of 4097.96 points.

    The season of presentation of corporate quarterly results continues, and among other interesting facts, the largest pharmaceutical company in the USA, Pfizer, added 2.6%, after declaring that the profit made in the fourth quarter is 56 cents per share, which is better than market forecasts of 52 cents per share. In contrast, the trading session for the Apple Corporation was very unsuccessful, where quotations fell to 8% because iPhone sales did not reach forecast of the analysts, even by having reached a record level of 51 mln units.

    European stock markets also had a chance to win back some losses obtained over the last few days. The London FTSE 100 index grew by 0.33%, the Parisian CAC 40 rose by 0.98%, and the Frankfurt DAX increased by 0.55%.

    Oil quotations are moving in slightly different directions, having got support from cold weather in America, predicting an increase of demand for raw materials, but, at the same time, are restrained by expectations of growth of stocks of oil according to EIA, on 2.338 million barrels. This morning, Brent adds 0.09%, traded on the level of 107.50$ per barrel, and WTI is losing 0.14%, bargaining around 97.27$ per barrel.

    In general, stock markets are going to feel some nervousness today, as the attention of participants of the markets is going to be directed to the results of the two day meeting of the FED. To remind you again, this meeting is the last for the current FED chairman - Ben Bernanke. The majority of the analysts are presuming that he is going to confirm his previous statements (that the American economy is recovering), which will be a supporting signal for the continuation of turning of volumes of the QE3 program.

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    30 January 2014: FED Cuts QE3 Program By Another 10 Billion Dollars

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, FED announced the decision on the reduction of the repayment of assets, by 10 billion dollars, to $65 billion dollars a month. This meant that the regulator ignored the weak statistical data that was presented, stating that the growth of economic activity was accelerated in recent quarters; indicators of the labor market had mixed character, but in general showed further improvement. Additionally, the interest rate was kept in its target range of 0%-0,25%, which coincided with the forecast.

    Following the results of the trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 1.19% to the level of 15738.79 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 1.02% to a level of 1774.20 points, and Nasdaq Composite went to a minus by 1.14% and reached the level of 4051.43 points.

    European stock markets also came to an end in the red zone. The index of the London stock exchange, FTSE 100, fell by 0.43%, the Parisian CAC 40 fell by 0.68% and DAX fell by 0.75%.

    The Asian markets, following American indices, began the day in a minus. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index lost 1.8%. Markets of South Korea and Taiwan were closed. In addition to the disappointing news, final PMI index from HSBC across China made 49.5 points, when forecasts were 50.5 points. Nikkei 225 lost 2.45%, and Shanghai Composite, 0.82%.

    The FED meeting is finally over, and now investors are going to go back to following the publications of macroeconomic statistical data. Today, the following data is going to be published on: unemployment and preliminary data on inflation in Germany; business climate, consumer confidence and consumer inflation expectation in the Eurozone; preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the IV quarter, primary requests for unemployment benefits, and data on consumer inflation in the U.S.

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    03 February 2014: January Appeared To Be Quite Inconsistent For The Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The American indices finished the last trading week in negative territory. Negative attitudes were brought to the market due to the fact that according to the presented data from the FED, the volume of the commercial debt papers of the American companies was reduced for the week to 1.014 trillion dollars. Besides that, pressure on the market increased due to the reporting period of large companies, whereby data appeared to be worse than forecasts. The American investment company KKR Financial Holdings, reported a decrease in quarterly profit from 77.01 million dollars to 61.99 million dollars. The Chevron oil company reported around a 32% falling of quarterly profit to 4.93 billion dollars.

    As a result, indices closed the trading week with the Dow Jones industrial average index decreasing by 0.94% to the level of 15698.85 points, and over the week the loss was 1.1%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index decreased by 0.65% having closed at the level of 1782.59 points, loss over the week being 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite index decreased 0.47% to a value of 4103.88 points, having lowered during the week by 0.6%.

    The situation in the commodities market also became negative last week as both prices of oil and precious metals lost in value. This morning, Brent is bargaining next to the level of 105.55$ per barrel, losing 0.25%; WTI is down by 0.47% on the level of 96.24$ per barrel. Gold is up by 0.22% on a price of 1242.54$ per troy ounce and silver decreasing by 0.01%, traded on the level of 19.12$ per troy ounce.

    Meanwhile, February will be saturated with events that will have an influence on the development in the markets. A large part of investors attention will be focused on the Congress of the US, who need to solve the issue of raising of the ceiling of the American national debt, before the end of the week. Investors will also take an interest in February's meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Today, it is worth paying attention to indices of business activity in the industrial sector of Germany, the Eurozone and Great Britain, and the index of economic conditions of ISM in the production sphere in the USA.

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    04 February 2014: January Sales Continue On Stock Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Monday, the main stock indices of Europe showed negative dynamics due to a heavy decrease in activity of the banking sector. From the macroeconomic statistics which were published yesterday, attention should be paid to indexes of business activity for January in the industries of Switzerland, Germany, Great Britain, and also as a whole the Eurozone. In the Eurozone, the indicator increased from 53.9 points to 54 points, in Switzerland from 55 points to 56.1 points, in Germany from 56.3 points to 56.5 points, and in Great Britain it decreased from 57.2 points to 56.7 points.

    As a result, the index of Great Britain, the FTSE 100, went down by 0.7%, the French CAC 40 became 1.4% easier, and the German DAX went to a minus by 1.3%. The regional STXE 600 indicator decreased by 1.3% and was closed on a level of 318.21 points.

    The situation in the American market also sharply weakened after the publication of an unexpectedly weak report on the industrial ISM index in the USA. In January, this indicator decreased from 56.5 points to 51.3 points, whilst analysts expected 56 points.

    As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index decreased by 2.08% to the level of 15372.8 points. The S&P 500 lost 2.28% reaching a level of 1741.89 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.61% to the level of 3996.96 points.

    Asian markets didn't have any other choice but to follow the negative European and American trading sessions. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index decreased by 2.3%, which is the strongest decrease in the past eight months. The Japanese Nikkei is losing 4.17% this morning , and Futsee-100 falls by 0.54%. Shanghai Composite also decreases by 0.82%.

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    05 February 2014: The Situation In The Stock Markets Is Stabilizing

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, participants of the markets finally calmed down, which helped indices to recover slightly from the falls of the last few days. Optimism was brought by macroeconomic statistical data which pleased investors. According to the published data, orders in the manufacturing industry were reduced in December by 1.5%, while analysts expected the fall of the indicator to be 1.7%.

    Investors attention was also directed towards speeches from the representatives of the FED. In particular, the head of the FED of Richmond, Jeffrey Leker, noted that the American economy will continue its development, with a very slow rate, however, this will not affect decisions of the FED to continue to reduce the program. Accordingly to his estimates, gross domestic product of the country will grow in 2014 by 2%, and the rate of inflation in the next 1-2 years will reach the target level of 2%. At the same time, the head of the FED of Chicago, Charles Evans, declared that an increase of interest rate could be possible, but only in the long-term, and monetary policy will remain to be soft until the FED is sure that all necessary measures have been taken for achievement of maximum employment and price stability.

    Following the results of the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index rose by 0.47% and was closed on a level of 15445.24 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 went to plus by 0.76% to the level of 1755.2 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, increased by 0.87%, to a level of 4031.52 points.

    Asian stock markets are recovering after a strong fall yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei adds 1.23%, the Korean KOSPI also grows. China is still celebrating New Year in the country. The Australian ASX200 and the Indian BSE Sensex are decreasing.

    Today is going to be a very saturated day, statistical data wise. Indexes of business activity in the Eurozone, data of ADP Services on the labor market in the USA, and the ISM index in the non-manufacturing sector are expected.

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