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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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    07 February 2014: ECB Keeps Its Soft Stimulation Of The Economy

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    This morning, positive external background remains in the markets. Among the main factors pushing indices to move up, is the preservation of soft stimulating policy in the Eurozone and expectation of data on the level of Private Non-farm Payrolls and unemployment rate in the USA for December, which will be published in the second part of the day.

    Yesterday, the European Central Bank declared preservation of the interest rate at the former level of 0.25%. At a traditional press conference, the president of ECB, Mario Dragi, confirmed that the bank will start to take measures only if forecasts on inflation will start to become worse, and turbulence of the currency market will increase. Inflation in the Eurozone was unexpectedly slowed down to 0.7% per annum following the results of December, which became its lowest value since 2009.

    Published macroeconomic data in the U. S. yesterday was also rather positive, primary jobless claims made 331 thousand when what was expected was 335 thousands, decreasing by 20 thousand from last month. Non-farm Productivity made 3.2%, 2.5% was expected.

    This helped American indices to close the trading session in a green zone. The Dow Jones industrial average index increased by 1.22% reaching the level of 15628.53, S&P 500 increased by 1.24% to the level of 1773.43 points, and Nasdaq Composite added 1.14% in value, finishing the trading session on a level of 4057.12 points.

    Today, the attention of the investors is going to be directed towards employment change in the non-agriculture sector in January, which, with a high probability, will significantly affect both dynamics of the trading session in the USA, and closing of the European exchange markets. It is expected that growth of the number of workplaces in January made 185000, after growth of 74000 in December. Strong data could lead to a continuation of growth of profitability of state bonds. Weak numbers could raise doubts in expediency of turning of the QE program.

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    10 February 2014: The Labor Market Of The USA Was The Main Source Of A Positive In The Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Friday, investors concentrated their attention on the publication of macroeconomic statistical data. Statistics on the labor market of the USA were weaker than predictions of analysts. Frosts again became the main reason why the quantity of created workplaces appeared below market forecasts. This time, around 262 thousand people could not come to work because of cold weather, which coincided with the figure recorded in December.

    The Non-farm payrolls indicator made 113 thousand whereas 185 thousand were expected. The average hourly salary increased by 0.2%, having coincided with market expectations, and the average duration of the working week remained invariable at a rate of 34.4 hours. Among the positive data, it should be noted that the unemployment rate decreased from 6.7% to 6.6%.

    As a result, the index of the wide market S&P 500 increased by 1.33% and finished the week on the level of 1786.58 points, the indicator of blue chips, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, grew by 0.5% to the level of 15705.84 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, added 1.69% reaching a value of 4105.38 points.

    Oil managed to increase in price due to the retreat of the dollar, and the remaining positive dynamics of the decrease in the unemployment rate in the USA. Brent this morning is traded on a level of 108.46$ per barrel, increasing by 0.36% and WTI is losing 0.16% traded on a level of 99.19$ per barrel.

    Today we expect a rather quiet trading session, as there are not many important economic reports expected during the day. One of the most important events this week is going to be the press-conference of the new head of the FED, Janet Yellen. Undoubtedly, she will be asked questions concerning the plans of the FED in relation to the target levels of the labor market. Besides that, the publication of the report on retails is another important event of the current week.

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    10 February 2014: Prices of Coffee rise due to unprecedented drought

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Since the end of 2014, the price of coffee has increased more than 30%. The reason of the soar is severe drought in Brazil, which could reduce the future harvest by more than 10%.

    Brazil is the main producer of Coffee worldwide. Brazilian Arabica, thanks to its low price, is a key ingredient in coffee mixture. Brazilian Arabica is one of the best coffees in the world.

    Traders are concerned regarding the future of the Brazilian’s harvest of coffee, which is pushing the price up. The maximum price was recorded near to the level of 144 dollars per pound.

    At the moment, we are observing a technical correction. The key support level is 132 dollars per pound. Coffee could continue its growth. The key resistance level is $144. If the level is breached up with success, then Coffee could reach the following levels: $152.00 and $163.00.

    If the bears breach down the support level of $132, then Coffee will continue its technical correction. The next levels for decline are $128.40-$124.75.

    This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.

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    14 February 2014: Markets Are Consolidating At The Levels Reached

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Thursday, indices of the United States managed to finish the trading session on a positive note, and closed the day with a moderate increase. Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, raised by 0.40% to the level of 16027.59 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, increased by 0.58% to the level of 1829.83 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to plus on 0.94% reaching the level of 4240.67 points.

    As for the statistics published yesterday, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits contrary to expectations, increased from 331 thousand to 339 thousand, and at the same time, retails in January were reduced by 0.4%, though zero change was expected. At the same time, December retails were reconsidered towards a fall from 0.2% to minus 0.1%, and production stocks in the last month of 2013 accelerated growth rate to 0.5%, reflecting activity which wasn't too high of retailers and consumers.

    In the meantime, the Asian markets are traded ambiguously this morning . The Chinese market received incentive in the form of inflation at the level of 2.5% in January, and also because of the price index of the producers, which has fallen during this period by 1.6%. Japanese Nikkei 225 increases by 2.17%, Shanghai Composite is adding 0.83%, Futsee-100 loses 0.24%.

    The situation in the commodities market remains stable and is developing positively. Prices of gold managed to go over the level of 1300.00$ per troy ounce, and are adding 0.63% this morning, traded on a level of 1308.24$. Silver jumped by 2.07% reaching a price of 20.82$ per troy ounce. Prices of oil are stable, with Brent traded on a price of 108.45$ per barrel and losing just 0.07%. WTI is down by 0.21% traded on a level of 99.84$ per barrel.

    This morning data on gross domestic product of Germany for the 4th quarter of 2013 has been published, which made 0.4% against the expected 0.3%. Later throughout the day, data on preliminary gross domestic product of the Eurozone for the 4th quarter of 2013 and trade balance for December, are going to be presented. Also, data on industrial production in the USA for January will be published in the evening.

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    17 February 2014: Statistics Support The Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The last trading day of the previous week was rather full with publications of macroeconomic statistical data, which had an influence on developments in the markets, and increased volatility. Analysts were predicting an increase of the industrial production in January by 0.2%, but actual numbers were reduced by up to 0.3%, which is the maximum value since April, 2013. Even more disappointing was data from the manufacturing industry, who's volume of production decreased in January by 0.8%, which is the greatest fall since May, 2009. Analysts were predicting an increase of 0.1%.

    In spite of the fact that in the process of the publication of various reports, indices were moving up and down, they managed to close the trading session in positive territory. Dow Jones industrial average Index raised by 0.79% up to 16154.39 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index raised by 0.48%, having closed at the level of 1838.63 points, and the Nasdaq Composite index raised by 0.08% to the value of 4244.03 points.

    As for the commodities platforms, gold continues to grow due to the weaker dollar, increasing by 0.53% and bargaining next to the level of 1325.56$ per troy ounce. Silver is also up, adding 1.53% and bargaining next to the level of 21.75$.

    Prices of oil are also stable and are developing in a positive direction. An interesting fact to pay attention to is that spread between Brent and WTI is decreasing, and WTI managed to go through the level of 100.00$ per barrel. This morning, Brent is traded on a level of 109.10$ per barrel, and is adding just 0.02%, while WTI is up by 0.42% and is traded on a level of 100.55$ per barrel.

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    18 February 2014: News From Japan Is Boosting The Market

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The First trading day of the week was affected by lowered activity on the stock platforms due to the bank holiday in the United States.

    This morning, interesting news came from the Bank of Japan, reporting its intention to continue soft monetary policy until the time the rate of inflation will reach 2%. The regulator plans to continue an annual increase in monetary base in the range of 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen. This decision was made unanimously and coincided with average forecasts of analysts. In addition, the Bank of Japan confirmed the volume of repayment of state bonds on the level of 50 trillion yen a year. It should also be noted that the central bank of the country also made the decision to prolong three programs of crediting for a year, which were expiring in March.

    This news immediately had an effect on the Japanese yen and Japanese stock market. The Japanese yen fell sharply in price against the dollar, and is traded this morning on a level of 102.59. The weakening yen pushed up prices of the Japanese companies focused on export, and as a result, the Nikkei grew by 3.18%.

    The situation in the commodities market remains the same, Brent is losing around 0.10% and is traded on the level of 109.07$ per barrel. WTI is slightly better, growing by 0.22% on the level of 100.35$ per barrel. Gold is stable and is losing just 0.02%, traded on a level of 1318.30$ per troy ounce. Silver remains strong at the price of 21.56$ and adds 0.65%.

    Today will be saturated with publications of statistics - these being data on balance of current accounts of the Eurozone, inflation of Britain, the German index of economic expectations of ZEW, the index of activity of FED of New York, and volume of inflow of the capitals in treasury securities of the USA. All this statistical data could increase volatility in the markets and change further development in the short-term.

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    19 February 2014: The Situation In The Markets Looks Very Shaky

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    As expected, the trading session on Tuesday was very volatile. Additionally, presented macroeconomic data shook the optimism in the markets.

    European stock platforms finished the trading session without significant change. Attention should be paid to the fact that the index of economic expectations in the business environment in Germany, counted by ZEW institute, decreased from 61.7 to 55.7 points in February. In the meantime, the assessment of the current situation was better than the forecasts at 50.0 points, having declared a maximum level since the 3rd quarter of 2011.

    Following the results of the trading session, the key index of Great Britain, FTSE 100, increased by 0.9%, French CAC 40 lost 0.1%, and German DAX grew by 0.03%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased by 0.01%, having closed on a level of 334.6 points.

    In the USA, the macroeconomic statistics were again quite weak, the index of production activity in New York in February decreased further than expectations, from 12.5 to 4.5 points. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index lost 0.15%, and reached the level of 16130.40 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were slightly better. S&P 500 increased by 0.12% reaching the level of 1840.76 points, and Nasdaq Composite added 0.68% traded on a level of 4272.78.

    Oil prices are staying up, with Brent on 110.20$ per barrel, losing just 0.23%. WTI is still strong, reaching the level of 102.14$ per barrel and adding just 0.04% this morning. Gold and silver are down by 0.48% and 0.77% accordingly, traded on a level of 1318.11$ and 21.73$ per troy ounce.

    In the evening, the attention of the participants of the markets will be focused on the minutes of the last meeting of the FED, which took place on the 28th and 29th of January. No surprises are expected from these documents, but in the meantime though the latest economic reports are not supporting statements that the American economy started to stabilize, and any signal that the FED is ready to change their decisions regarding the further decrease of the QE3, depending on the current situation, could return encouragement in the markets.

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    20 February 2014: Markets Seem To Be Unable To Decide On The Direction

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate decrease. The American indices were not strong enough to beat historical maximum levels, even though a day earlier the S&P 500 stopped literally 1 point from the record.

    Another disappointing factor was the macroeconomic statistical data published yesterday. The number of new constructions of houses in January, from the reconsidered 1.048 million, unexpectedly dropped to 0.88 million, and in general, all the published data in relation to new constructions has been rather weak. It should be noted that for the last few weeks in the US, almost every presented report has been rather disappointing, but mostly it was written off for weather, or in general was ignored by the market.

    Also yesterday, investors finally got the chance to see the minutes of the last meeting of the FED, where it was stated that members of the committee on the open markets consider that the program of quantitative mitigation could be continued to be deducted, in the situation the committee will not begin to see any notable changes. In general, the minutes did not bring anything unexpected or new.

    As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.56% to the level of 16040.56 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 decreased by 0.65% to the level of 1828.75 points, and the Nasdaq Composite went to a minus by 0.82% and reached the level of 4237.95 points.

    Commodities this morning are slightly down, but the situation remains stable. WTI managed to increase in price yesterday by 0.9%, to the level of 103.31$ per barrel but this morning has fallen slightly, bargaining next to the level of 102.61$ per barrel. Gold and silver are losing 0.53% and 1.33% accordingly, traded on levels of 1313.42$ and 21.56$ per troy ounce.

    Today market will be oversaturated in respect of economic statistics, as both Europe, and States will publish many interesting reports. From Europe we will see data on PMI in Germany and in Eurozone; the USA will publish data on Consumer Price Index, jobless claims and PMI in manufacturing sector. Special attention should be paid to the Manufacturing Index of Philadelphia.

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    after a recent sessions of pullback, USDCAD has recovered and there is much buying in the pair, hope it continues....

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    07 March 2014: ECB Gives The Euro Incentives To Clamber Up

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday's trading session took place under the auspices of the expected meeting of the European Central Bank. The ECB kept the key interest rate at the former level of 0.25% and improved the forecast on economic growth. According to the new estimates of the European Central Bank, gross domestic product of the Eurozone will grow by 1.2% this year, whereas an increase of 1.1% was predicted earlier.

    This decision was not a surprise and did not have any special impact on the markets, but the awaited press conference of Mario Draghi after the meeting did not please investors. He stated that the European Central Bank intends to keep key interest rates at the current level, or will lower them over longer period of time, whereas participants of the markets expected to hear hints on the possible reduction of rates in the near future.

    As a result, indices closed the trading session with a insignificant growth, the British FTSE 100 got stronger by 0.19%, the French CAC 40 increased by 0.59%, and the German DAX went to plus by 0.01%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased, in turn, by less than 0.1%, having closed on a level of 337.28 points.

    Additionally , the euro strengthened its position in relation to the dollar and other currencies. The EUR/USD currency pair managed, from the level of opening at 1.3732 to go up to the maximum level on 1.3872, and this morning, is traded on a level of 1.3868.

    As for the situation in the American platforms, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits in the USA was reduced last week from the reconsidered value of 349 thousand to 323 thousand, and it appeared to be below expectations of 338 thousand.

    Following the results of the session, the indicator of blue chips, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, raised by 0.38% to the level of 16421.89 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, increased by 0.17% to the level of 1877.03 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to a minus on 0.13% and reached a level of 4352.13 points.

    In the evening, the attention of investors is going to be focused on the data on the labor market of the USA. Most probably, this data will not bring any significant changes, but now the ECB meeting is over, statistics from the US are going to be the main focus of investors attention. Yesterday, some representatives of the FED stated that only the sharp deterioration of indicators will lead to a change of course on the repayment reduction. One of them, the head of the FED of Philadelphia, Plosser, also made assumptions that it could take at least another two months before we see signs of the data being unaffected by the unusually cold winter conditions.

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