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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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    10 March 2014: The Positive Statistics From The Labor Market Supported The Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On the last day of the first trading week of the month, as always, it was marked with the publication of one of the most important macroeconomic statistical reports of the United States - data on the labor market from the Ministry of Labor of the USA, as well as the change of employment in the non-agricultural sector of the country.

    The published data appeared to be better than expectations of 151 thousand, making 175 thousand. According to experts, labor employment in February could've proceeded more actively if not for the extreme weather conditions in many states of the country, which saw people spending twice as much time in order to get to work, and experiencing serious transport difficulties. Thus, there is hope that the decrease in the indicator had a seasonal nature, and the situation in the sector will continue to stabilize. In the meantime, unemployment rate grew to 6.7% from 6.6% in January.

    As a result, the Dow Jones industrial average index raised by 0.19% to the level of 16452.72 points, and the increase over the week made 0.8%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index raised by just 0.05%, having closed at the level of 1878.04 points, and gained 1.0% throughout the week. The Nasdaq Composite index decreased by 0.37% to the value of 4336.22 points, having added 0.7% within the week.

    Commodities opened the trading week in the red zone. Gold was also falling in price on Friday, as positive data on employment, most likely, will give the FED grounds to reduce the QE-3 program once again, at the same volume at the following meeting. Even gold gained 1.3% for the last week, and this morning the price of the precious metal is falling by 0.50% and is traded on a level of 1331.58$ per troy ounce. Silver is losing even more – 1.14%, bargaining next to the level of 20.69$ per troy ounce.

    Brent and WTI are losing 0.96% and 1.28% accordingly, traded on prices of 107.42$ and 100.69$ per barrel.

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    11 March 2014: Uncertainty Concerning Ukraine Presses On The Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday's trading day, the opening of the week, was negative for the markets, and the main stock indices of the world closed the day in negative territory. The main negative factor in the market is the unstable situation in Ukraine, which increases uncertainty in the markets. Additionally, macroeconomic statistical data from Japan and China also disappointed investors.

    Export volumes in China fell in February by 18,1%, while analysts expected an increase of 6,8%, after the increase for 10,6% in January. Deficiency of trade balance, in turn, reached $22,98 billion in comparison with a surplus of $31,86 billion recorded in January. Data from Japan also appeared to be disappointing. Gross domestic product of the country in the fourth quarter grew, according to final data, by 0,2%, whereas analysts predicted the indicator to increase by 0,3%.

    As a result, the European stock indices closed the trading session in the red zone. The index of Great Britain, the FTSE 100, went down by 0,4%, the French CAC 40 added 0,1%, and the German DAX went to a minus by 0,9%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 0,5% and was closed on a level of 331,4 points.

    American indices, following the results of the trading session, also decreased in value. The indicator of blue chips, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, lost 0,21% and was closed on a level of 16418,68 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus by 0,05% to the level of 1877,17 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, decreased by 0,04%, reaching a level of 4334,45 points.

    The situation seems to be a bit more positive on the commodities market, where Brent and WTI are adding just a bit more than 0,25%, traded on levels of 107,80$ and 100,85$ per barrel accordingly. Gold grows by 0,42%, bargaining next to the level of 1347,09$ per troy ounce. Silver is up by 0,55% on a level of 21,02$ per troy ounce.

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    12 March 2014: The Negative Statistics And Nervousness Concerning Ukraine, Still Presses On The Markets

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The markets seem to be stiffened with expectations or fears due to the pressure from various events, and seem unable to find the opportunity to find ground for movement in one direction or another. The Ukrainian factor still puts pressure upon world platforms. Victor Yanukovych speech, which took place yesterday, did not become a sensation, but, at the same time, did not minimize uncertainty in the markets. The international disputes on the legitimacy of occurring events remain in the spotlight. In the meantime, the process of separation of Crimea continues to develop. Yesterday, the Supreme Council of the autonomy adopted the declaration of independence of the republic.

    Published macroeconomic statistics in the Eurozone also disappointed investors. Growth of industrial production of Great Britain in January made 0.1% for the month and 2,9% for the year, when analysts were predicting 0,2% and 3,0% respectively. At the same time, the surplus of the trade balance of Germany was reduced in January from 18,3 billion euro a month earlier, to 17,2 billion euro, which was worse than market expectations of 17,7 billion euro.

    As a result, the trading session in Europe finished with the British FTSE 100 falling by 0,06%, the French CAC 40 by 0,48%, and the German DAX increasing by 0,46%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased, in turn, by less than 0,1%, having closed on a mark of 337,28 points.

    The attention of investors was also drawn towards the statistics from China, where the export in the country was reduced in February by 18%, which warmed up fears concerning the rates of its economic growth. This news pushed the American indices to go down, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average index weakened by 0,41%, closing on a level of 16351,25 points. The index of the wide market, S&P 500, went to a minus by 0,51% to the level of 1867,63 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, fell by 0,63% to a level of 4307,19 points.

    Reuters reports that the Chinese Central Bank could, for the first time since 2012, reduce norms of reservation for banks, if rates of economic growth will fall lower than 7,5%. The following big block of statistics from China is expected tomorrow - data on retails and industrial production for February.

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    17 March 2014: The Majority Of The Population Of Crimea Voted For Accession To Russia

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The question concerning Crimea still remains on the agenda. According to the preliminary results of the referendum, which already passed in Crimea, nearly 96% of the voters who took part in the plebiscite about the status of Crimea, voted for entry of an autonomy within the structure of Russia. However, official authorities of Ukraine, and also leaders of many foreign states, (OSCE and other international organizations) are considering that the referendum has gone against the constitution of the country. However, Russia considers it legitimate.

    On the eve of this referendum, the key stock indices of Europe finished the trading session in the red zone. Following the results of the trading session on Friday, the key index of Great Britain, FTSE 100, went down by 0,4%. The French CAC 40 lost 0,8% and the German DAX went to plus by 0,43%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 0,7% and was closed on a level of 322,23 points. This morning, DAX and CAC 40 are up by 0,64%, FTSE 100 is adding 0,41%.

    The remaining situation is also having an effect on the commodities market, where precious metals are increasing in price. Gold is up by 0,06%, and platinum grows by 0,44%, traded on the levels of 1379,80$ and 1476,10$ per troy ounce accordingly. Silver is down by just 0,02% on a level of 21,41$ per troy ounce.

    Prices of oil, in the meantime, are falling. Brent is down by 0,50% on a price of 107,67$ per barrel, and WTI is losing 0,21% on a level of 98,35$ per barrel.

    From macroeconomic statistics today, attention should be paid to data on the Eurozone’s consumer price index for February. Growth of the indicator could calm the markets slightly, after the statements the head of the European Central Banks made last week.

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    18 March 2014: The First Sanctions Against Russia Have Only Political Character

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has signed the decree regarding the recognition of the Republic of Crimea. This news is not really positive for world platforms, but didn't affect the markets very negatively after all, as sanctions taken by various countries were rather soft. During the meeting that took place yesterday, Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the European Union introduced visa and financial restrictions for 13 Russian, and 8 Crimean officials.

    In turn, the situation on the American platforms was also supported by the publication of strong statistics on industrial production in the country, which, in February, grew by 0,6% showing the maximum growth in six months. The restoration of economic activity of the USA after the cold winter brings optimism and inspires investors. The Dow Jones index grew by 1,13% to the level of 16247,22 points, NASDAQ added 0,81% and reached a level of 4279,95 points, and S&P 500 appeared in the plus by 0,96% finishing the trading day on the level of 1858,83 points.

    The stock exchanges of the Asian Pacific Region are also bargaining in the green zone this morning, mainly due to the news of the soft sanctions taken against Russia by the EU and the USA. The Japanese Nikkei index grew by 0,94% so far, the Chinese Shanghai Composite by 0,08%, the Korean KOSPI added 0,91%, and the Hong Kong HANG SENG appeared in the plus by 0,48%.

    Stabilization of the geopolitical situation affected the commodities market and is pushing the price of commodities to go down. Brent adds 0,24% and dropped to the level of 106,50$ per barrel, and WTI is increasing by 0,14% and is traded on a level of 97,76$ per barrel. Gold and silver are losing 0,87% and 1,03% accordingly, traded on prices of 1361,00$ and 21,06$ per troy ounce.

    Now, the main question remains to be the risk of escalation of the situation in other territories of Ukraine. The insignificance of the sanctions declared yesterday by the US and the European Union could either testify to their unwillingness to break economic relations with Russia, or could be reflecting the sluggishness of the western bureaucracy.

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    19 March 2014: Attention Of Investors Will Shift From Ukraine To The FED Meeting

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    On Tuesday, the main stock indices of Europe and the United States showed positive dynamics after the speech of the president of the Russian Federation concerning the developing geopolitical situation. In his speech, Vladimir Putin discussed the admission of Crimea as part of the Russian Federation, and also added that Russia is not intending to divide Ukraine.

    Published macroeconomic statistics in the region were quite different, trade balance of the Eurozone showed a surplus and made 0,9 billion euro in January, in comparison with 13,8 billion euro a month earlier. In the meantime, the index of economic expectations of investors of ZEW of Germany for March, decreased to 46,6 points from 55,7 points a month earlier.

    As a result, the index of Great Britain, the FTSE 100, increased by 0,6%, the French CAC 40 added 1%, and the German DAX went into the plus by 0,7%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, increased by 0,6% and was closed on a level of 327,93 points.

    Statistical data in America also didn't show any considerable changes and did not disappoint investors. Inflation of the USA in February made 0,1%, which fully coincided with forecasts and with January values. The number of constructions of houses (following the results of February) made 0,907 million which was also close to the forecast of 0,910 million.

    So, following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, raised by 0,55% to the level of 16336,19 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, increased by 0,72% and reached the level of 1872,25 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went into the plus by 1,25% and reached a level of 4333,31 points.

    Today, the attention of investors could move from geopolitical questions to monetary. It is expected that the FED will reduce the program of repayment of assets by another 10 billion dollars to $55 billion so far, and also that target reference points could be reconsidered. Earlier it was thought that the policy of 'cheap money' will end when unemployment in the US reached 6,5%. It has already reached 6,7%, but on the whole, the situation on the labor market in the country is far from ideal.

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    09 April 2014: Movements In The Markets Are In Line With The News Flow

    After two losing days, the U.S. market bounced and ended the trading session in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index added 0,06% and finished the trading session at 16256,14 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0,38% to the level of the 1851,96 points, while the index of high-tech companies, Nasdaq, increased by 0,81% and was closed at 4112,99 points.

    In the meantime, the European trading session was influenced by the news coming from the IMF and indices closed the trading day in red territory. The British FTSE 100 lost 0,49%, the French CAC 40 decreased by 0,25%, while Germany's DAX was down by 0,21%. The Regional indicator STXE 600 decreased, in turn, by 0,3% and was closed at a level of 333,85 points.

    Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund presented updated projections for global growth for 2014 and 2015, having decreased the world GDP this year to the level of 3,6%, the last projections were based on the level of 3,7%. The outlook for global growth in 2015 dropped from 4% to 3,9%. The main reason for the revision was a slowdown in the economy in countries such as Russia and Brazil.

    The geopolitical factor on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the current moment only positively affects quotations of oil, giving it support due to speculation regarding the transportation of raw materials from Russia to the EU. This morning, oil dropped slightly back from the levels that had been reached, and is traded on $107,19 per barrel on Brent, and $101,39 on WTI, decreasing by 0,40% and 0,41% accordingly.

    Gold is up by 0,11%, traded on a price of $1310,50 per troy ounce, and silver is losing 0,63%, and is traded on a level of $19,93 per troy ounce.

    Today, investors attention may be attracted to the protocol of the last meeting of FOMC, which shows the growing number of supporters of a faster increase of the rates, or at least a more detailed discussion of the labor market potentials and risks to financial stability. If either are discussed,this could potentially return interest to the U.S. currency.

  8. #258

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    10 April 2014: FOMC Protocols Inspired Investors

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


    Yesterday, we emphasized that special attention should be paid to the publication of protocols of the last meeting of the FOMC, which, as a result, helped the American stock market to finish the trading day with an increase.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 1,11% to the level of 16437,18 points, the S&P 500 added 1,09% and was closed at the level of 1872,18 points, and the index of high-tech companies, Nasdaq Composite, moved up on 1,72% and reached the level of 4183,90 points.

    Minutes from the last FED meeting showed that the majority of the members changed their attitude towards the situation in the U.S. According to the protocols, most of the members revised the GDP growth forecast downwards, and expressed concerns about achieving the inflation target. In addition, the regulator took the decision to abolish the unemployment rate at 6,5%, as one of the signals to higher interest rates.

    The European trading session was also rather positive and the majority of the stock indices were able to recoup losses of the previous days. The British, FTSE 100 rose by 0,70%, the French CAC 40 increased by 0,40%, and Germany's DAX added 0,20% . The Regional indicator STXE 600, in turn, increased by 0,40% and was closed on the level of 335,16 points. Among the published statistical data in the region, Germany's trade surplus in February can be noted, which was at the level of 15,7 billion euros, while analysts were expecting a surplus of 17,8 billion euros.

    Today is expected to be quite a quiet day in relation to the publication of macroeconomic statistical data, so the participants of the markets are going to look for external information, which could influence the movements in the markets. As previously mentioned, the U.S. started its corporate reporting season, and despite the controversial start with Alcoa, so far the results are rather good.

  9. #259

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    11 April 2014: The Stock Market Of The U.S. Outlined The Correction

    By Kristina Leonova: Chief Analyst in Investment Research Department


    There is an impression that the markets are moving up and down, without having the opportunity to decide on a further direction. One day, indices are growing, another day, they are decreasing, thereby leveling all growth of the previous sessions.

    Yesterday, the European indices finished the trading day in different directions. At the beginning of the trading session, investors won due to positive news from the USA. After that, some of the indices began to fall, due to the fact that there was not a lot of macroeconomic statistical data published. As a result, the index of the London stock exchange, the FTSE 100, grew by 0,1%, the index of the Parisian stock exchange, the CAC 40, lost 0,66%, and the index of the Frankfurt stock exchange, DAX, decreased by 0,55%.

    A pessimistic mood began in Europe and was followed by American indices. We saw a substantial increase in the price of indices on Wednesday, but it seems that after that, stock markets decided to have a correction. A push factor was the statistical data on export and import in China, which appeared to be extremely lower than the predictions of analysts. Import of the country made a number of minus 11,3%, at an expected growth of 2,4%. Export appeared to be minus 6,6% at the expected 4,0%.

    However, the statistical data coming from the U.S. was of a positive character, but indices could not find strength to move up. The number of primary requests for unemployment benefits in a week, appeared to be slightly less than expectations on 320 thousand, and made a number of 300 thousand. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 1,62% to the level of 16170,22 points, the S&P 500 lost 2,09% and reached a level of 1833,08 points, and the Nasdaq Composite had the biggest loss of the day and decreased by 3,1% to the level of 4054,11 points.

    Prices of commodities are stable. Brent and WTI are losing 0,26% and 0,30%, traded on levels of $107,24 and $102,07 per barrel. Gold is flat, traded on a price of $1320,86 per troy ounce. Silver is down by 0,24% at $20,04 per troy ounce.

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    16 April 2014: Trading At The Stock Markets Proceeds Rather Frostily

    By Kristina Leonova: Chief Analyst in Investment Research Department

    The American indices held one more positive session, thanks to the publications of good corporate and statistical data. The awaited consumer price index, taking into account seasonality and a similar indicator without food and energy carriers, grew by 0,2%, while analysts expected an increase of only 0,1%.

    As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index got stronger by 0,55% and was closed on a level of 16262,56 points, the index of the wide market, S&P 500, went into plus by 0,68% up to the level of 1842,98 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, rose by 0,29% and reached the level of 4034,16 points.

    In the meantime, the situation in the European stock platforms is developing in a different direction. European stock markets are reacting more strongly to the negative news around the situation in Ukraine. Statements that the president of Russia could declare an introduction of troops to the southeast of Ukraine during his press conference tomorrow, the 17th of April, are pushing investors to minimize their risks and close their positions.

    Also, the statistical data from Germany, presented yesterday, appeared to be lower than previous indicators. ZEW index made 43,2 points, whereas analysts expected a growth of up to 45,0 points after 46,6 points in March. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the trade balance of the Eurozone increased from 0,8 billion Euros in January, to 13,6 billion Euros in February, showing a significant surplus.

    All these factors brought indices to the point where the British FTSE 100 finished the trading session with a loss of 0,64%, the French CAC 40 decreased by 0,89%, and the German DAX went into minus by 1,77%. The regional STXE 600 indicator decreased, in turn, by 1% and was closed on a level of 326,58 points.

    This morning, statistical data from China was already published, the GDP of the country of the first quarter showed an increase of 7,4%, at expected value on 7,3%. Retail sales also showed growth and increased to 12,2% from the value of last month of 11,8%, when 12,1% was expected.

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