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Thread: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

  1. #21
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    21 FEBRUARY 2013: FED MINUTES SCARE MARKETS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Global markets turned upside down and brought the dollar back in the driver’s seat as a number of US Federal Reserve (FED) officials urged to slow down or stop buying of bonds (Q4). The minutes from last month’s meeting reveal that FED-members want to stop the buy bonding before the program’s effectiveness has been fully tested.

    The prospect of a halt in bond buying sent stocks sharply lower. The S&P 500 index suffered its steepest decline since November. Investors were split and bewildered whether FED doves, eager to spur growth; or more cautious colleagues were in command. The ambitious 6,5% unemployment target originally set by FED seems at risk. The new development has turned markets extremely nervous and volatile. What Wall Street wants is an absolute sign that FED will continue with bond buying for the indefinite future.

    The dollar skyrocketed after the minutes were published and gold and silver prices fell to its lowest level since July. Simultaneously it was rumored that a major hedge fund has liquidated large commodity positions. London copper fell to its lowest level in two months. Asian stock markets also tumbled as oil prices fell. Brent crude is down USD 2 a barrel. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks fell 1,3% after weeks shining.

    One of the hardest hit currencies were once again Sterling Pound (GBP) which continues to slide. During the week USD/GBP is down from 1.5475 to close to 1.52. Euro/USD has dropped to 1.3250. USD/JPY, both currencies regarded as “safe havens” when markets are volatile, traded marginally higher at 93.55.

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    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

  2. #22
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    22 FEBRUARY 2013: WEAK DATA SUPPORT CONTINUED EASING

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Global markets are still bewildered and confused as to further direction after the steep plunge Wednesday. Asia is marginally up in morning trade. Yesterday’s increase in jobless claims, weak factory activity and consumer data were a stark reminder on the real health of the US economy. It seems, however, overly optimistic to give up bond buying and monetary easing. Federal Reserve’s (FED) published January meeting records, turned markets upside down and raised questions whether these policies will be terminated earlier than planned.

    The new data presented convincing arguments in favor of continued monetary easing. FED is currently buying USD 85 billion in bonds monthly. It has earlier stated that these purchases are going to continue until the labor market improves substantially. 6,5% unemployment has been set as a target. FED records demonstrates that its members are increasingly divided over the wisdom of these policies. The “Doves” want to go on with monetary easing. The traditionalist don’t. This division rattles global markets.

    Jobless claims increased last week with 20 000 as consumer prices rose 1,6% and business activity index plunged. These numbers make it necessary for FED to think twice before giving up on the growth stimulus policies. Commodities and precious metals which along with stocks were big losers on Wednesday, have recovered as a result of technical corrections after the steep fall earlier in the week. Gold was especially strong hit and lost its shine as safe haven. Gold is trading 0,5% up at 1582. Oil prices have stabilized with technical graphs still pointing down.

    USD continues to gain ground, but slower than yesterday. Euro/USD trades at 1.3216. USD/JPY is flat on 93,3075. The Scandinavian krones have lost substantially against the USD during the week. USD/NOK trades at 5,66 compared with a low on 5,43 earlier in February. The Danish krone (DK) is for the first time in weeks trading higher than the Norwegian krone (NOK).

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    25 FEBRUARY 2013: MOODY’S REDUCED A RATING OF GREAT BRITAIN WITH AAA TO AA1

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The trading session on Friday has passed more positively at the stock exchanges of the USA and Europe comparing to the days before. Investors returned to purchases, without having paid attention to statements of European Commission which reduced the forecast on growth of world gross domestic product in 2013 from 3,3% to 3,2%. Thus figures across Spain (-1,4% at a budget deficit on 6,7% from GDP), Italy (-1% at 2,1%), Portugal (-1.9% at 4,9%) really depress. However, this news didn't confuse investors, and the European indexes FTSE (+0,7%), DAX (+1,03%), CAC (+2,25%), MIB (+1,4%) carried out all day in "a green zone" and finished the session of a steady growth.

    The American indicators: Dow Jones +0,86%, S&P +0,88% and NASDAQ +0,97% also finished week with a rebound, without looking neither at inconsistent information from Europe, nor on rising to the USA "the fiscal cliff" to which there is only a week.

    Statistics from China added a negative sentiment in the markets this morning, where the PMI index from HSBC, in February sharply decreased from the maximum reached in last month for 2 years, but remained above important level of 50 points. Thus Asian indexes began new week in "a green zone", and NIKKEI arranged the next rally for 2% on news about planned appointment to the post of the head of Bank of Japan H. Kuroda, the known supporter of active stimulation of economy.

    The situation in world economy still does not show a lot of optimism. The news coming from Moody's published in the night from Friday to Saturday became a clear proof of it. The agency reduced a rating of Great Britain with AAA to AA1. The reason of this decision of Moody's called weakness of the British economy which, according to agency, will keep sluggish growth rates at least till 2016.

    Oil, however, moderately becomes cheaper today under pressure of a negative. Brent drifts next to a level 114.24, adding 0.12% and WTI is stable on 93.209. EUR/USD pair is traded on a 1.3216 this morning.

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    26 FEBRUARY 2013: ITALIAN ELECTIONS BECAME A REASON FOR CORRECTION IN THE MARKETS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Yesterday the world markets showed different dynamics. So, the European indexes finished Monday’s trading session moving upwards. Meanwhile, the American indexes began week with essential decrease. As a result of sales the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes could not keep the key levels - 14000 and 1500 points accordingly. Following the results of Monday the Dow Jones index lost 1,55%, the S&P 500 index lost 1,83%.

    Markets were correcting due to the news coming from Italy. It became known that following the results of processing about 90% of bulletins two parties received identical result. The victory was won by Pierre Bersani's left-centrist coalition and Silvio Berlusconi's right-centrist coalition. Let's remind that Bersani already declared commitment to the economic reforms which are carried out by the old government led by Mario Monty. Berlusconi's victory is extremely undesirable for the Eurozone.

    One of the most expected events for today is speech which will be given by the head of FRS B. Bernanke to bank committee. The head of FRS in his speech, most likely, will give an assessment to carried-out stimulating programs of FRS, namely repayment of assets as after announcement of protocols from the last meeting of FRS fears about early turning of programs increased.

    USD/JPY pair yesterday has been decreasing from a level of 94.7 to a level 91, losing 4%, but at the current time is back to a level of 92.2. Most likely such movement was caused by strong weakening of euro and, respectively, a capital overflow in traditionally protective currencies - dollar and yen. EUR/USD is traded on a level 1.3062.

    On Monday we have seen rather volatile session in the oil market where the positive news on oil import coming from China (+7% in January), have boosted price back to $115.8, but at closing price went again back and this morning Brent is losing 0.63% and traded on a level of $113.719.

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    27 FEBRUARY 2013: BERLUSCONI “DERAILED” WORLD STOCK MARKETS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Yesterday we again could not see a uniform dynamics on the world stock markets. The European indexes fell off on news on outcome of the Italian elections, having lost on the average 2,5%. At the same time the American indexes could show ascending dynamics, having added about 0,7%.

    There were a few reasons for activity of buyers in the American market. First, speech of the head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Ben Bernanke. The banker sounded the position concerning influence of a new round of the program of quantitative easing (QE3) on economy of the USA. Bernanke focused attention of investors on advantages of QE3, among which economic recovery against control of inflation at the level of 2%. According to the head of FRS, benefit from soft monetary policy outweigh the related risks so turning of stimulating measures is not necessary at the current stage.

    Besides that, another source of a positive was data coming from the market of real estate of the USA. So, sales of new houses in the country unexpectedly grew by 15,6% in annual expression. Let's note that last year became the most successful in the housing market in the USA after 2009. In 2012 growth of sales of new buildings became maximum since 1983, having made 19,9%. It is necessary to note, that we can expect that real estate market will continue to develop this year as well, but definitely much slower.

    Meanwhile, in Europe the main subject for discussion there are parliamentary elections in Italy. They caused a lot of noise and confusions in the financial markets. Profitability of the Italian bonds in the secondary market flew up to 4,8% that became a maximum level since the beginning of December, 2012. Besides, political risks in Italy led to euro exchange rate falling to a minimum level since the beginning of year. This morning, we can see EUR/USD pair traded on a level of 1.3076.

    Risks of strengthening of debt crisis dragged off down world prices for oil. Brent is bargaining on a level 112.66$ and WTI on 92.78$ per barrel.

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    28 FEBRUARY 2013: BERNANKE AND DATA LIFT WALL STREET

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Stocks rose on Wednesday with major indexes posting their best daily gains since early January, as Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, gave robust support for continued stimulus policy and data pointed to modest economic improvement. In his second day before a Congressional committee, Bernanke defended FED’s buying of bonds to keep interest rates low to boost growth. Bernanke’s comments helped market rebound from its worst decline since November. Dow Jones Industrial closed at a level not seen since 2007.

    A relatively smooth auction of Italian government bonds further helped temper concerns about the country’s political deadlock. The Euro held its ground against both dollar and Japanese yen on Thursday. The common currency edged up 0,1% to USD 1.3147 after steep losses following the Italian elections. The Euro hit an eight-week low on 1.3018 on Tuesday. Solid sales of Italian government bonds yesterday helped soothe the jitters that the political deadlock could destabilize Europe’s second biggest sovereign debt market.

    Strong US business spending data also boosted investors’ sentiment easing worries about looming US fiscal spending cuts and prompting the yen to resume its decent after a brief spell of sharp gains earlier in the week. In Washington positions between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders over the budget crisis hardened yesterday as last ditch talks to prevent harsh automatic spending cuts beginning March 1st, failed to make substantial progress.

    British sterling (GBP) is still weak trading at 1.5169 against the dollar. The Australian dollar is stronger and oil has regained some ground. Brent crude is trading above USD 112 a barrel. Also gold is somewhat stronger trading close to the critical USD 1600 level an ounce.

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    01 MARCH 2013: EURO FALL STEADIES IN ASIAN TRADE

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The Euro steadied in Asian trade Friday morning after steep losses yesterday and after notching its biggest monthly fall – 4% - against the dollar in nine months. This as investors digested slightly disappointing Chinese data, political uncertainty in Italy and impending US government spending cuts. These combined factors sapped investor’s risk appetite and put the Euro under increased pressure.

    China’s official purchasing managers’ index for February showed manufacturing activity at its slowest pace in four months at 50.1 against the predicted consensus poll of 50,2 slightly lower than expected. The data is not dramatic. Risk-off sentiment doesn't usually help the Euro, but the Chinese data is not a major factor. The unclear situation in Italy is the basic worry. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3073 well above the 1.3018 hit earlier in the week. The European Central Bank (ECB) will consider interest rates today. A further cut will put the Euro under new pressure.

    The Japanese yen was relatively steady against both Euro and USD. USD/JPY trades at 92.64. The yen which usually is regarded as a safe haven in times of heightened market stress, continue to under perform after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated an advocate of aggressive growth and stimulus policy to head the Bank of Japan.

    The big worry in global markets is nevertheless how the sweeping US budget cuts worth USD 85 billion starting from this month, will hit growth in the world’s biggest and the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the cuts would hit US biggest trading partners especially hard. In Washington the blame game between Republicans and Democrats are in full swing with both parties accusing each other for failure to prevent the fiscal crisis.

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    04 MARCH 2013: ASIA TUMBLES ON CHINA WORRY

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments



    Asian shares slipped on Monday as China tightened its grip on the property sector. Beijing increased Friday required down payments and loan rates for buyers for second homes in cities where prices have been quickly increasing in an effort to contain housing costs. This had immediately a negative effect on the Chinese markets and led to a tumble in Asia. The MSCI-index for SIA-Pacific shares are 1,3% down after Shanghai shares slipped 2,3%.

    Slower growth in Chinese increasingly important services sector had also an impact. The growth in this sector was slower than in five months, reinforcing the view that the Chinese recovery remains modest. The slower Chinese growth had an immediate effect on Australia where the AXJO index fell 1.2%. Japan was the only positive spot. The Nikkei 225 rose 0,6% as the sole gainer in the region. Export companies were boosted by a weaker yen and surprisingly strong US manufacturing and consumer sentiment.

    The new Governor of Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated that BOJ is ready to take whatever measures necessary to get Japan out of the vicious deflation circle. USD/JPY trades at 93,33. In spite of its budget problems USD is trading on a six months high against a basket of currencies. Currency speculators have over the last week increased their bets in favor of the US dollar.

    Evidence of Europe’s problem with Spain at risk needing a state bailout is weighing in on the Euro. Data presented on Friday showed that Germany and Ireland are the only Euro zone members with factory output growth last month. Joblessness within the Euro zone rose to an all-time high. The Euro steadied at 1.3015 after slipping to a low of 1.2966 on Friday, the lowest level seen in 3 months.

    Concerns about the negative impact from the S spending cuts also weighed in on US crude which is down to USD 90.59 a barrel. Brent is trading at 110,50. Gold and silver prices are hurt by the strong dollar.

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    05 MARCH 2013: WALL STREET HIGHER IN CLOSING RALLY

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    In a late-day rally Wall Street pushed major stock indexes near all-time highs despite concerns about growth and China’s housing market. Any slowdown in China could affect US growth. Commodities and US-materials have a big exposure towards China. This goes especially for giants as Caterpillar and Alcoa which lost respectively 1,8% and 1,1% and were the big losers in yesterday’s trade.

    Asian shares followed suit and rebounded strongly on Tuesday after a sharp sell-off triggered by slumping Chinese stocks the previous session. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific shares won back 1.1% of the 1.3% lost on Monday. In a prepared statement for the opening of China’s annual parliament meetings, outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao, stressed that China would boost fiscal spending in 2013 in a bid to deliver on the promised 7,5% economic growth for 2013.

    This boosted the Australian stock market which rose 1,5% outperforming its Asian peers. Japan’s Nikkei stock average rose 0,8% to 53 month high. At least for now markets continue to be bullish in spite of spending cuts in the US, lack of any kind of political resolution in Italy and weaker data from China including an overheated property market. Markets are flush with capital due to monetary easing and continuous low interest rates. For the time being this seems to trump every other concern.

    There are no big movements in the currencies. Euro/USD is steady on 1.3015. EU Finance Ministers met yesterday to discuss bail-out terms for Cyprus (see separate article). USD/JPY is at the same 93,50 levels as seen at the start of the week. British pound, GBP, has avoided to slump below 1.50 and trades above 1.51. Oil prices have recovered from yesterday’s low. New York crude, NYMEX, is above USD 90 a barrel. Brent crude trades at 110,25. Gold and silver are marginally higher than at the start of the week. Gold at USD 1580 an ounce.

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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    05 MARCH 2013: SPECIAL REPORT: CYPRUS STARTS BAILOUT TALKS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Michailis Sarris, the newly appointed Minister of finance in President Nikos Anastasiades’ government, met yesterday with his Western European colleagues in Brussels in an effort to hammer out a bailout agreement with international lenders. Cyprus needs about Euro 17 billion in aid of which 10 billion is needed to shore up the banking sector. That is fraction of what has been pledged to Greece. For Cyprus with a gross domestic product (GDP) on 18 billion it represents a colossal sum.

    Speaking prior to the Ministerial meeting which is expected to focus on options to address the debt crisis in Cyprus and over renewed concerns over the future of the Euro following the Parliamentary elections in Italy. In the elections one week ago Italy rejected in large numbers reforms and austerity measures demanded by the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Mario Monti, a former EU-commissioner which for the last year has headed a caretaker government, obtained only 10 % of the electoral votes.

    Cyprus is following in the footsteps of Greece, Ireland and Portugal as the fourth country inside the Euro zone to ask for a bailout. Cyprus faces a bond repayment of Euro 1,4 billion in June. The European Union wants consequently that Nicosia reach a deal with the so-called troika of international lenders (EU-Commission, ECB and IMF) by end of March.

    Troika-representatives have negotiated with the previous AKEL, a communist-led government for the last months. These talks stalled at disagreements on terms including the privatization of government assets. The Christofias-government sought aid from Russia before finally accepting a European bailout. Christofias succeeded two years ago in obtaining a Euro 4 Billion loan from Russia on favorable terms. There are now negotiations on prolonging this loan from 5 to 10 years.


    Mr. Sarris stated that he did think it is necessary to make major changes to a draft bail-out agreement reached with the previous government. Sarris warned against taking an overly aggressive approach to combating money-laundering which he feared could only worsen the fragile economy of the island.

    Worried by the threats for a “hair-cut” on investors deposits billions of Euros have over the last months left Cyprus for safer banks and locations as Latvia. Sarris stressed that these outflows already had been very damaging to the Cyprus banking system and worked against the common objective to stabilize the banking system. Sarris who served as a Minister of Finance between 2005 and 2008, is a former World Bank economist.

    Cyprus has since the breakthrough of the Soviet Union been one of the preferred “safe havens” for Russian flight capital which have contributed heavily to Cyprus prosperity and made it possible for the three banks, Bank of Cyprus, Laiki and Hellenic bank, to take big exposures in Greek treasury bills and unsecured loans to Greek individuals. Totally the loans given to Greece over the last years are estimated to Euro 27 billion.

    Prominent European politicians and especially Germans have lately stressed that Cyprus with its low taxes (10 5 flat taxation on company net profit) and lax banking regulation, have made the island a hub for money laundering.

    This has been strongly rejected by the previous government. The new government also rejects these accusations. In a token that Cypriots want to maintain some level of banking secrecy to lure investors and financial services (the FX industry in Cyprus has boomed over the last years), Mr. Sarris said that there was great skepticism in Cyprus about money-laundering investigations. That would mean that anybody who has any money in the banking system has to have their name analysed and reported when they have nothing to hide.

    Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
    Best Regards, Neeraj Saxena
    Official Representative
    MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

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