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Thread: Re: Forex Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

  1. #11
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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-10-01

    Surging trend line was breached in earlier trading increasing potential for weakness in the currency pair. In addition, prices formed a “failure swing” pattern with neckline at 97.74 with 100 and 50 SMA weighing on prices, however today they returned back above the 97.74 underpinned by some macro events.

    Concerning oscillators,MACD dropped into negative territory and RSI (14) is down trending suggesting downside bias. We consider that negative sentiment has strengthened although bulls still hold their ground due to recent return above the “failure swing” neckline.

    Our opinion based on technical signs lean towards downward enhancement toward 96.79, where the 161.8% of 97.74 to 99.66 is also nearly located coupled by 200 SMA.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-45a134ccda06e1b57feaa916d09cb439cf70f829-png

  2. #12
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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-10-02

    Upside bias drove prices to resistance where 50 and 100 SMAs consolidate just below the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0563 to 1.0180, at 1.0363. Previously we saw the currency pair forming a near double top pattern and breaching neckline at 1.0243 but now the pair has climbed back to 1.0340, providing signs that is trading in a wide range.

    Looking at oscillators, Stochastic has been in earlier trading in the overbought zone providing a mild contrarian signal, coupled by SMAs weighing on prices and MACD being negative suggesting negative trend. However, MACD has crossed its signal line from below, partially offseting its bearishness. We consider chances are favoring in the immediate term reversal to negative bias and shifting focus toward 1.0243.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-e8b8a8ca17c7574163affc8ae344906921eb518a-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-10-03

    The currency pair rose to fresh 8-month peak after breaching cap at 1.3562 yesterday. Rising structure remains strong as indicated by surging trend lines with the most recent trend line being steeper suggesting upside is strengthening. Moreover, as you can observe all SMAs remain below prices not even providing any indication of short-term reversal.

    Concerning indicators, Commodity Channel Indexis upwardly moving rising above 100 and still has room until previous crests line. In addition, ADX indicates that bullish trend is strong and valid.

    Therefore, we would expect the EURUSD to continue its upside toward 161.8% of 1.3450 to 1.3101, at 1.3661, followed by next resistance at 1.38.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-2751e9b426d9f1ed78e13c036eef5342c01cc220-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-10-04

    The AUDUSD found support at 0.9278 where the 100 SMA is located and resumed its upside as we have expected and currently is moving towards cap at 0.9527. Tentative surging trend line is indicating that positive structure is more likely to continue.
    Our view that the pair would initially reach resistance 0.9527 and then likely to breach it targeting 161.8% of 0.9527 to 0.9278, at 0.9679 is also backed by oscillators.

    See more: Forex Technical Analysis AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR 2013-10-04 | IFC Markets

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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-10-07

    Negative bias strengthened in earlier trading due to risk appetite gradually fading, leading the currency pair near support at 161.8% of 0.9145 to 0.9457, at 0.8954. On Friday we saw a bounce up as prices approached a key support level but also due to investors hoping to a breakthrough of U.S. fiscal deadlock.

    Falling trend line together with all SMAs being above prices suggest that downward trend is valid, which is confirmed by Average Directional Index. However, the CCI creates some concerns due to falling below -80 line but there is still room to go lower while Stochastic does not provide any contrarian signal.

    Therefore in our view bearish bias would resume and is likely to breach support at 0.8954 ahead of next downside hurdle at lower Bollinger band around 0.8863.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-0538dd0b817ed31b3d7257bdac8843614c21babe-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-10-08

    Valid surging trend line indicates that the currency pair positive structure is more likely to continue coupled by SMAs being below prices. Moreover, prices have recently found resistance at 1.6263 near 161.8% extension of 1.6162 to 1.5948, at 1.6300, thus we consider the 1.6300/1.6263 a cap zone.

    The Average Directional Index confirms the strength of the positive structure however the short-term OsMA and RSI(14) suggests that the bias is negative. We conclude that prices are more likely to retrace even lower towards rising trend line at 1.5948 before we see attempt to resume upside.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-766cc8c475b15833d3eea107c46479d412070a1f-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-10-09

    The currency pair downward structure seems damaged by the near term bullish “failure swing” that drove to resistance near the 50 SMA at 97.46. The down trend though still appears strong with a valid falling trend line providing a natural resistance coupled by upper Bollinger band at 97.75.

    Concerning oscillators the Commodity Channel Index rose above previous peaks line at 180, OsMA approaches our subjective upper level of previous highs, while MACD is still negative even though above its signal line.

    See more: Forex Technical Analysis US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN 2013-10-09 | IFC Markets

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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-10-10

    The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback with the USDCAD currency pair edging at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0563 to 1.0180, at 1.0415. In the longer term we saw a double top formation, breaching neckline at 1.0243, followed by a “bear trap” formation which introduced rising prices.

    Observing oscillators, the RSI(14) is positively structured confirming rising prices, while CCI is deep into overbought zone exceeding 200 line creating concerns over bullish potentials but is not confirmed by Stochastic.

    See more: Forex Technical Analysis US DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLAR 2013-10-10 | IFC Markets

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    Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-10-14

    Tentative soaring trend line is still valid indicating growing development keeps its potential for higher prices. Double bottom trading pattern as well as 100 and 50 SMAs are below prices and moving towards a Golden Cross, all that increase chances for a bull ran. Nonetheless, prices seem unable to reach resistance at 0.9527 as they are extending into consolidation around 0.9463 in the near term.
    OsMA is now turning into positive ground strengthening the price pattern signals for upside possibilities, backed by a short-term RVI that is growing and remains above its smoothing line.

    See more: Forex Technical Analysis AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR 2013-10-14 | IFC Markets

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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-10-15

    The negatively structured currency pair has found support at 0.8954 in the last two weeks and bounced up limited by cap at 0.9145 which was previously support. Prices have breached short-term SMA but are now creating doji candlesticks around 20 SMA with 50 SMA still way above.

    Short-term oscillators are suggesting downside resumption as the Stochastic entered the overbought zone in a down trending market indicating that buyers have likely lost their power, confirmed by Williams percent range that have also rose into overbought territory and is now crossing -20 line from above.

    See more: Forex Technical Analysis US DOLLAR / SWISS FRANK 2013-10-15 | IFC Markets

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