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Thread: Re: Forex Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

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    Default Re: Forex Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

    The currency pair continued its downside momentum and almost reached support at 1.0277. Prices are now below 50 and 100 SMA increasing chances for lower levels, in addition support at 1.0242 represents the neckline of a swing reversal in the longer term trend.

    Looking at the oscillators, Stochastic has entered in the oversold zone suggesting the upside correction is imminent. Although, MACD is negative and Average Directional Index indicates that downtrend prevails.

    Therefore we would expect bearish momentum to continue in the immediate term but we consider the support at 1.0242 would hold any attempt to dip lower.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-cccccd09135ce3b12d21c381c8f2e16f4ceddd2d-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-09-17

    Upside resumption drove the currency pair to drew resistance line at 1.3386 slightly below the 7-month high at 1.3450. Prices are above the 10, 20 and 50 SMA suggesting bulls are stronger than otherwise.

    Looking at the oscillators, MACD just crossed the zero line indicating uptrend is gaining chances, however the Average Directional Index is below 25 line concluding that any trend is weak. Lastly, the Commodity Channel Index rose above 100 and still has room for peak at 175, meaning that the positive structure may rise further.

    Therefore we would expect the EURUSD to advance towards 1.3450 before it makes any correction weighed by key resistance and upper Bollinger band.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-2170d8adff74b35098a032cb12263a6efe00b6ce-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-09-18

    The currency pair has been neutral in near term, extending in the last trading sessions in 0.9386/0.9284 sideways area. Nevertheless, in the longer term is in an uptrend as indicated by the surging trend line and above the SMAs, who are currently providing natural downside hurdles.

    Looking at the oscillators we get mixed signals, firstly Stochastic rose earlier this week in overbought zone providing some contrarian signal but the MACD and RSI (14) are not so revealing. We consider that the AUDUSD would continue its steady formation and we are currently limiting our trading position ahead of FOMC.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-3ac28e2ff93b84fa0b53fdd5041ac77529fa8dab-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-09-19

    The currency pair sharply moved higher on Fed’s decision to keep asset purchases unchanged. Interestingly, even though fundamental developments triggered upside wave, prices found resistance at a technical level at 261.8% Fibonacci extension of 1.5715 to 1.5432, at 1.6164 and is now entering in corrective mood. In addition, the uptrend remains firm as indicated by the surging line.

    Overbought oscillators, like RSI (14) that went up to 80 and Stochastic climbing above previous peaks line at 85, are suggesting that prices are more likely to retrace. Therefore we would expect a corrective dive towards 1.5885 in the following trading sessions.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-1ab2842e9b82a22d2d071f6d646d7f391a22b411-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-09-20

    Downside bias is strong in the pair’s daily pattern and already dropped at support at 0.9084, breaching lower Bollinger Band. In addition, SMAs are above prices coupled by a steep falling trend line favoring further weakness. However, we must keep in mind that this sharp downward move was a result of Fed’s decision not to tighten monetary policy meaning that US dollar's weakness could not be sustainable, unless more negative news for US dollar come out.

    Looking at oscillators, we can easily observe that Stochastic and Williams are oversold. Therefore in our view the USDCHF is likely to make a correction towards 0.9149 or even higher and then we would reconsider our projection for the market.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-79d4b58b0df63590b45c0ff0eb1a5f1bdfe6681e-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-09-23

    Downside bias has already driven the currency pair lower in today’s trading and as the falling trend line suggests the pair could go even lower towards support at 61.8% of 97.75 to 99.66, at 98.50. At that level, we observe previous lows as well as the 200 SMA, thus appears to be a strong support.

    Looking at the oscillators, MACD is neutral fluctuating around zero line but Stochastic is entering oversold area with limited free space to the negative side, therefore we cannot anticipate much downside today and tomorrow. Furthermore, in the longer term a symmetrical triangle is forming with lower highs and higher lows which could provide a direction and target price on the breakout.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-c20b1c1278769ce61836cb8051e9590d8778df09-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-09-24

    In the longer term we can observe that the penetration of the “failure swing” neckline at 1.0241 was not credible since in the weekly chart did not close below that level, instead it bounced back above that creating a spike. We could consider this as a “bear trap” in the daily chart or a fake break in the weekly chart as it is shown below.

    SMA 50 provided support to the currency pair and induced it to return back up failing to close also below surging trend line in the weekly. MACD remains above zero line reinforcing the weakening up trend, whle OsMA is bearish but near previous troughs line. We would expect the pair to remain above the support at 1.0180 unless we have another round of substantially negative news for US dollar, with next resistance target at 1.0341.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-585xnxf2c1ab52fcba465e5fb55c65c71a83409cfae560-png-pagespeed-ic-z6koxzvo40-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-09-25

    Upper Bollinger band weighed on the currency pair coupled by overbought Stochastic and Commodity Channel Index being above 175 line, thus resistance line was drawn at 1.3562. Prices have retreated afterwards reaching almost support at 1.3450, increasing validity to uptrend pattern and previous bullish breakout.

    At the moment CCI has a downward direction and OsMA is declining after reaching previous peaks line suggesting bearishness, however key support at 1.3450 make as cautious to further lows. In our consideration corrective move could go lower in the immediate term towards 1.3372 but we are cautious on that since medium term outlook is bullish thus we prefer to wait for upside resumption either at 1.3450 or 1.3372.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-fe668740a3395e0edd0a3c81a861b0088af83622-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-09-26

    The currency pair was overextended up as was indicated by OsMA and Stochastic, thus it eventually drew a resistance line at 0.9505 and then softened to support at 0.9332. Oscillators have reset from overbought zones and therefore they do not hurdle resumption of the upside.

    The “double bottom” trading pattern formed between 0.9230/0.8841 range suggests that the medium term trend has reversed to positive. First target at 161.8% Fibonacci extension around 0.9464 achieved and now potentially looking towards 261.8% level however before that the 50.0% of 1.0578 to 0.8841, at 0.9707 may place a lid on prices.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-0a929a6478e4ad5a5fef046962fdbbcb53bbc969-png

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    Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-09-30

    Downside bias remains strong with prices sliding early on Monday to fresh eight-month low at 0.9022 and drawing a support line there with the lower Bollinger also placing a downside hurdle. Moreover, prevailing trend is negative as indicated by the falling trend line.

    Looking at the oscillators, MACD is below zero confirming weakness of the price pattern while there is now indication of contrarian signals. Therefore we would expect prices to continue under selling pressure and likely to make a new low in the following trading, heading towards 261.8% of 0.9083 at 0.9136, at 0.8992.

    Re: Forex Technical Analysis  by IFC Markets-c1ed8d4b5d1eb5c6b2cd1353737363d9c165463e-png

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