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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #141

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    Brent: general review

    Current trend
    Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil corrected up and tested the level of 46.67, but could not consolidate above it. The price was supported by news that forest fires in Canada curbed its oil production.

    Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on the Non-farm Payrolls that is due in the US at 2:30 pm (GMT+2). Growth in the index might support the US Dollar and pressure oil prices.

    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Bollinger bands are directed down suggesting the downward tendency will continue.

    Support levels: 44.00, 43.00, 42.00.
    Resistance levels: 45.00, 46.00, 47.26, 48.15.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 44.00 with targets at 43.00, 42.00 and stop-loss at 44.65.
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 46.00 with targets at 47.00, 48.00 and stop-loss at 45.35.

  2. #142

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    EUR/USD: Euro remains under pressure

    Current trend
    Last Friday the pair significantly grew amid the publication of weak data on the US labour market, but closed near its opening levels on the day. The US Nonfarm Payrolls for April came out at 160 thousands, which was 40 thousand worse than expectations of economists.

    At the same time, the Dollar was supported by data on the Average Weekly Hours and Average Hourly Earnings that showed moderate growth. In addition, the Consumer Credit Change in March increased from 14.14 to 29.67 billion Dollars that was substantially better than the forecasts.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains unchanged. MACD is falling and giving a moderate sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and continues falling.

    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

    Support levels: 1.1379 (local low), 1.1339, 1.1321, 1.1300 (28 April low), 1.1269, 1.1233, 1.1200 (29 March low), 1.1143.
    Resistance levels: 1.1400 (local high), 1.1437, 1.1464, 1.1500 (4 May high), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 May high).

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.1400 with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541 and stop-loss at 1.1350. Validity – 2-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1379 with targets at 1.1300, 1.1269 and stop-loss at 1.1437. Validity – 2-3 days.

  3. #143

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    USD/CAD: general review

    Current trend
    Since the middle of last week, the pair was growing amid publications of poor macroeconomic statistics in Canada. The Trade Balance deficit increased from 2.47 to 3.41 billion Canadian Dollars, while the Net Employment Change declined by 2.1 thousands, which was substantially worse than forecasts.

    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the JOLTS Jobs Opening in the US. The index is expected to fall from 5.445 to 5.412 thousands that might pressure the pair.

    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed up and the price range is expanding. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic is trying to turn up.

    The indicators recommend long positions.

    Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2906, 1.2841, 1.2794, 1.2698, 1.2640, 1.2574, 1.2538, 1.2492.
    Resistance levels: 1.2967, 1.3018, 1.3056, 1.3084, 1.3125.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.3018 and stop-loss at 1.2937. Validity – 1-2 days.

    Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.3018 with targets at 1.2906 and stop-loss at 1.3056. Validity – 1-2 days.

  4. #144

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    EUR/USD: technical analysis

    EUR/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is trying to turn up in the Bullish zone above the 50 mark. The Composite is trying to turn up as well.

    EUR/USD, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trying to break out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are directed horizontally. The RSI is growing having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite developed a larger upward move suggesting limited growth potential in the pair.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 1.1357 (local lows), 1.1219 (end of April lows), 1.1139 (end of March lows).

    Resistance levels: 1.1466 (psychologically important level), 1.1532 (February 2015 lows), 1.1602 (local highs).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1350 with the target at 1.1234 and stop-loss at 1.1385. Validity – 2-3 days.

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1476 with targets at 1.1522, 1.1582 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.

  5. #145

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    EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Since the opening of the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair has been declining. The European currency remains under pressure, as Italy’s banking system is facing difficulties due to the increased number of bad loans. Many commercial banks need additional capital, and shares in Banco Popolare, one of Italy’s largest banks, lost 14 percent.

    Weak data on the eurozone’s industrial production has had a negative impact on the Euro as well. The indicator came in at -0.8%, far below analysts’ forecast.

    Support and resistance

    RSI has reached the 36 level, and the pair still has potential for further fall. A correction can start from the level of 1.1364.

    The nearest support level is at 1.1364.

    The nearest resistance level is at 1.1449.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1364 with the target at 1.1400 and stop-loss at 1.1345.

  6. #146

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    USD/JPY: general review

    Current trend
    The pair continues consolidating after a significant growth at the beginning of the week.
    Data on the Tertiary Industry Index for March that was published today in Japan showed a decline of 0.7%, while experts anticipated a 0.2% fall, which slightly pressured the Yen. Today attention also needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, indices will show growth that might provide additional support to the pair.

    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues sideways movement along a narrow channel formed of the borders of Bollinger Bands, and is currently trading on the middle MA of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling.
    Support levels: 108.90, 108.50, 108.10, 107.65, 107.00, 106.50, 105.75, 105.35.
    Resistance levels: 109.35, 110.00, 110.30, 110.75, 111.00, 111.25, 111.60, 112.00.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 109.00 with the target at 109.35 and stop-loss at 108.90. Validity – 1-2 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 108.50 with the target at 108.10 and stop-loss at 108.70. Validity – 1-2 days.

  7. #147

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    USD/CAD: general review

    Current trend
    Since the beginning of last week, the pair is in consolidation having fallen by 50 points for the week. At the same time, yesterday the fall continued amid the publication of weak data in the US and due to uncertainty regarding the pace of interest rates hikes in the US.

    Today attention needs to be paid to data on Building Permits and the Core Consumer Price Index in the US. According to forecasts, the indices will grow that might support the US Dollar.

    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and the bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line. Stochastic turned up as it bounced off the border of the oversold zone.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 1.2851, 1.2825, 1.2800, 1.2780.
    Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2906, 1.2933, 1.2961, 1.2979, 1.3001.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.2933, 1.2961 and stop-loss at 1.2851. Validity – 1-2 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.2880 with targets at 1.2825, 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.2906. Validity – 1-2 days.

  8. #148

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    USD/JPY: general review

    Current trend

    Yesterday the pair slightly strengthened amid the publication of strong statistics in the US. The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% while economists predicted a growth of 0.3%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index n.s.a increased to 239.260 and Housing Starts grew to 1.172 million.

    At the same time, the Yen was supported by today’s data on the Japanese GDP. In the first quarter, the index came out at 1.7%, instead of a forecasted 0.2% growth.
    Today attention also needs to be paid to the FOMC Minutes in the US.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are minimal. Stochastic is growing.

    Support levels: 109.35, 108.90, 108.50, 108.10, 107.65, 107.00, 106.50, 105.75, 105.35.
    Resistance levels: 109.65, 110.00, 110.30, 110.75, 111.00, 111.25, 111.60, 112.00.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 109.30 with targets at 109.00, 108.50 and stop-loss at 109.45. Validity – 1-3 days.

    Long positons can be opened from the level of 109.65 with targets at 110.00, 110.30 and stop-loss at 109.50. Validity – 1-3 days.

  9. #149

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    AUD/JPY: pair is falling

    Current trend
    The pair continues falling amid a large number of macroeconomic publications in Japan and Australia.
    The Yen was supported by strong data on the Japanese GDP. In the first quarter of the year, the index grew by 1.7% that substantially exceeded forecasts of economists of a 0.2% growth. At the same time, the Australian Dollar was pressured by weak data on the labour market of the country. The Employment Change increased by 10.8 thousands, which was worse than expectations of experts who predicted a 12.5 thousands growth, and worse than the previous figure of 25.7 thousands. However, the Unemployment Rate did not show an expected increase and remained unchanged.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic turned sideways near the middle of its range.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 79.20 (local low), 78.62 (16 May low), 78.16 (6 May low), 77.57 (11 February low).
    Resistance levels: 79.52 (local high), 80.00 (psychologically important level), 80.34, 80.64 (11 May high), 81.00, 81.60, 82.00 (29 April high), 82.45, 83.00.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 80.00 with targets at 81.00, 81.60 and stop-loss at 79.50. Validity – 2-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 78.62 with targets at 77.57, 77.00 and stop-loss at 79.20. Validity – 2-4 days.

  10. #150

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    USD/CAD: pair is growing

    Current trend
    The pair continues growing amid a significant strengthening in the US Dollar. The American currency was supported by the publication of April FOMC Minutes that substantially increased the probability of an interest rate hike in the US at June’s meeting of the regulator. According to the Federal Funds futures, at present the probability stands at more than 30%.
    At the same time, the pair was slightly pressured amid expectations of the release of inflation data in Canada, which is due later today.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is turning horizontally as it reached the overbought zone.

    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 1.3037 (local low), 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2962, 1.2900, 1.2844, 1.2800 (12 May low), 1.2757.
    Resistance levels: 1.3100 (local high), 1.3153 (local high), 1.3218 (5 April high), 1.3300, 1.3370 (16 March high).

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.3100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3218, 1.3300 and stop-loss at 1.3037. Validity – 2-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3000 with targets at 1.2900, 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.3100. Validity – 2-3 days.

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