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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #11

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    AUD/USD: pair under pressure

    Current trend

    Today the AUD/USD pair is falling.
    The pair is pressured by investors expectations of an interest rates increase in the US at the December Fed’ meeting and further monetary policy easing in Australia. In addition, Australian economic problems may get worse. The unemployment rate could increase as companies in the mining industry continue cutting investments, while commodities prices keep falling amid slowing Chinese economy.
    Thus, until 1 December when the RBA Interest Rate Decision is due the pair will remain under pressure. If interest rate are increased then, the fall in the pair will accelerate.

    Support and resistance

    Since the beginning of the month, the pair remains in an ascending correctional channel on the 4-hour chart.
    However, a breakdown of the support levels at 0.7200 (ЕМА50), 0.7170 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, lower border of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) would return the price in a downward channel on the daily chart and sends the pair to 0.7030 (November lows), 0.6950, 0.6910 (year lows).
    OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions.
    Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
    Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7325, 0.7370, 0.7500.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7240 with targets at 0.7290, 0.7300, 0.7370 and stop-loss at 0.7190.

  2. #12

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    XAU/USD: price of gold declines

    Current trend

    Since the opening of the trading day, the prices of gold and other precious metals are declining amid the strengthening in the US Dollar.
    The correlation between the price of gold and the EUR/USD pair is nearly 92%. The EUR is under strong pressure ahead of ECB interest rate decision, therefore, a decline in the price of gold is likely to continue.
    Demand for the USD, on the contrary, continues growing due to expectations of a hike in US interest rates. At present, gold does not seem to be a profitable investment as borrowing costs of buying and storing it tend to increase.

    Support and resistance

    Though on the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, they are giving sell signals on the 4-hour and weekly charts.
    Short positions are preferable. A growth to 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction and EMA144) seems possible if the price consolidates above the levels of 1085.00 and 1095.00.
    Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00, 1057.00.
    Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1073.00.

  3. #13

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    USD/CHF: safe-haven currency

    Current trend

    Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CHF pair was declining.
    The pair was falling despite the publication of poor data in Switzerland that came out significantly worse than forecasts and strong statistics on the US labour market. The Swiss GDP in the third quarter failed to show any growth, Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%, while the SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.7 points.
    The main pressure on the pair resulted from increased cautiousness on the market prior to the publication of key statistics in the US that pushed investors to switch their funds into the safe-haven Franc.
    Today attention needs to be paid to the ECB Press conference and its Interest Rate Decision, Fed’s Yellen testifies, FOMC Member Mester speech, and Markit and ISM PMI’s in the US.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.0185 and upper border above the level of 1.0340.
    A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0180, 1.0130. At the same time, a growth in the pair can go up to the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart).
    On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they are turning to purchases.
    Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0185, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
    Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0180 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0220.
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0240 with targets at 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0190.

  4. #14

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    AUD/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    The AUD/USD pair is strengthening, though, according to macroeconomic statistics, Australia’s trade balance deficit grew to 3.305 billion.
    The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a fall in iron ore prices and uncertainty about China’s economic outlook.
    Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 59.1 to 58.0 points that might affect the US Dollar.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the MA50, MA100 and MA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, while ADX indicates downward movement.
    Today, the price is expected to trade within the range of 0.7330-0.7287.
    Support levels: 0.7287, 0.7261 (MA50).
    Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7342 (local high), 0.7360, 0.7400.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 0.7330 with the target at 0.7360 and stop-loss at 0.7315.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7287 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7300.

  5. #15

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    Brent: general review

    Current trend

    Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil significantly corrected due to a Dollar decline and prior to the OPEC meeting, which is due today.
    According to the majority of experts, OPEC is not going to reduce quotes despite some speculation that Saudi Arabia can reduce its output. Contrary to that, there is a possibility that quotes will be increased due to Indonesia joining the cartel and Iran’s plans to increase output after sanctions are lifted. Therefore, total output could increase to 31 million barrels instead of today’s 30 million barrels a day. In this case, the price of oil might decline below year lows near the level of 42.46.

    Support and resistance

    The nearest support level is at 42.46 (yesterday low).
    The nearest resistance level is at 44.66 (yesterday high).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 42.46 and stop-loss at 44.66.
    If OPEC decides to reduce quotes at the meeting today, open long positons with the target at 46.44 and stop-loss at 44.00.

  6. #16

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    AUD/USD: Australia Dollar managed to strengthen

    Current trend

    On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair hit its new highs of the week. However, it should be noted that the pair strengthened in the second half of the day, while during the Asian session, the Australian currency was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics for October.
    Australia's exports fell by 3% after a 3% growth in September. Imports were down to 0% from previous 2%. As a result, trade balance deficit surged from 2403 to 3305 billion.
    Later on, the pair managed to strengthen amid the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech. She confirmed the possibility of an interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, but the Regulator will have to consider the real economic indicators.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is growing moderately, while the price range is narrowing down at the bottom. MACD is keeping its upward dynamics, though growth of the histogram is slowing down. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
    According to the indicators, a downward correction might form in the short term.
    Support levels: 0.7330, 0.7275, 0.7234, 0.7200, 0.7183, 0.7158 (23 November low).
    Resistance levels: 0.7363 (3 December high), 0.7381 (12 December high), 0.7400 (mid-August level).

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened if the price rebounds from the level of 0.7300 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7260. Validity – 1-2 days.
    Short positions look more preferable and can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7300 with targets at 0.7200, 0.7180 and stop-loss at 0.7350. Validity – 2-3 days.

  7. #17

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    EUR/USD: NFPR had little effect

    Current trend

    Despite strong Friday’s data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US, the Dollar could not recover losses of Thursday.
    Nonetheless, November NFPR suggest a steady recovery of the US labour market. The figure came out stronger than was predicted by economists at 211 thousands new jobs, while October figure was revised up from 271 to 298 thousands new jobs. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings in November increased by 0.2%.
    Considering strong recent data from the US, the probability of an interest rate hike in December significantly increases that could lead to the USD strengthening.

    Support and resistance

    For the downward trend to resume the price should consolidate below the support levels at 1.0820 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, May and July lows), 1.0760 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart).
    At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0890 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) could allow an upward correction towards the level of 1.1050 (ЕМА144, upper border of a descending channel on the daily chart) to continue.
    On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to sales.
    Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0700, 1.0600, 1.0560, 1.0500.
    Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.0845 with targets at 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0710 and stop-loss at 1.0890.
    Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0910 with targets at 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1090 and stop-loss at 1.0880.

  8. #18

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    GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend

    Yesterday the Pound fell against the US Dollar.
    The USD was supported after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5% in line with expectations, while the Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 211 thousands that was better than forecasted 200 thousands though less than the previous figure of 298 thousands. At the same time, yesterday’s data on the Consumer Credit Change showed a decrease to 15.98 billion Dollars, which was worse than its forecasts.
    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production and BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings in the US.

    Support and resistance

    The nearest support level is at 1.5000 (30 November lows).
    The nearest resistance level is at*1.5080 (moving average with 50 period).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.5000*and stop-loss at 1.5080.

  9. #19

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    XAU/USD: pair in correction

    Current trend

    The price of gold remains under pressure after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market for November. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls came out better than forecasts. The data indicates a stable condition of the labour market and gradual recovery of the US economy that removes last barriers for the Fed to hike interest rates this month. Fed Funds futures represent almost 80% probability of the rate hike in December.
    Thus in the medium term amid gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US gold will continue falling.

    Support and resistance

    After reaching the key support level at 1070.00 (EMA144 on the monthly chart), the pair remains in correction that could continue to the levels of 1085.00 (EMA144), 1092.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakout of which would send the pair to 1100.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and 1118.00 (23.6% Fibonacci correction).
    On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is also turning to purchases.
    Support levels: 1070.00, 1060.00, 1053.00, 1050.00, 1045.00.
    Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1092.00, 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1085.00, 1092.00 with targets at 1070.00, 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1095.00, and from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
    Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1095.00 with targets at 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.

  10. #20

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    XAG/USD: in correction

    Current trend

    Yesterday on COMEX, the price of March futures on silver fell by 21.6 cents.
    The pair remains under pressure amid expectations of an interest rate hike in the US in December this year and a further cycle of gradual monetary policy tightening in the US in the next year. In addition, the price of silver is pressured by falling commodities and oil prices.
    Due to the absence of important macroeconomic publications today and prior to meetings of the Bank of England and the Swiss NB that are due tomorrow, the pair will continue moving along a sideways channel.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a descending channel with the lower border below the level of 13.50.
    An upward correction in the pair can continue up to the levels of 14.40 (ЕМА144), 14.50 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 (year lows) will accelerate the fall and sends the price to 12.30, 13.00 (2009 lows).
    On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they start turning to purchases indicating that the upward correction can continue.
    Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
    Resistance levels: 14.40, 14.50, 14.80, 15.30.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 13.95 with targets at 13.50, 13.20 and stop-loss at 14.10.
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 14.30 with targets at 14.40, 14.50, 14.75 and stop-loss at 13.95.

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