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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #21

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    USD/JPY: pair fell

    Current trend

    During the last two days the pair substantially fell.
    The pair was pressured by strong data on Machinery Orders for October in Japan that grew by 0.7% and significantly exceeded forecasts. In addition, the Yen is supported be revised data on the GDP for the third quarter that showed a 1% growth, the Consumer Confidence Index for November that increased to 42.6 points and Labour Cash Earnings that grew by 0.7%. At the same time, demand for the Yen as the safe-haven currency could increase prior to meetings by the Bank of England and Swiss NB that are due tomorrow.
    Strong macroeconomic data can push the Bank of Japan to postpone further monetary policy easing that will also support the Yen.

    Support and resistance

    The pair remains above the strong support levels at 122.60 (EMA144), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction), 122.35 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakdown of which would send the price towards 122.15 (EMA50 on the daily chart). A farther fall is restricted by support levels at 121.50 (50% correction), 121.35 (ЕМА144), 120.60 (61.8% correction, EMA200).
    On the 4-hour and daily charts OsMA and stochastic recommend sales.
    Support levels: 122.60, 122.50, 122.35, 122.15, 121.50.
    Resistance levels: 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

    Trading tips

    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.50 with targets at 122.35, 122.10, 121.80, 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 122.80.

  2. #22

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    NZD/USD: general review

    Current trend

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreased its key interest rate from 2.75% to 2.5% in line with expectations. However, the NZD grew against the USD and approached last week highs.
    In its Rate Statement, the regulator stated that it expects stability in the near future with regards to the interest rates. The RBNZ is not going to dismiss completely an option of further policy easing if needs but it is unlikely to happen soon, which is a positive factor for the national currency.

    Support and resistance

    On 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up indicating an upward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are gradually growing. DI lines of the ADX indicator are crossing each other and directed down.
    Support levels: 0.6719, 0.6675, 0.6659 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.6636 (MA100), 0.6578, 0.6470, 0.6428.
    Resistance levels: 0.6747, 0.6787 (last week high).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6719 with the target at 0.6675 and stop-loss at 0.6747.
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.6747 with the target at 0.6787 and stop-loss at 0.6719.

  3. #23

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    USD/JPY: review and forecast

    Current trend

    Though expectations of a hike at the upcoming Fed meeting are growing, the JPY has strengthened.
    Futures traders are putting an 87.2% chance of a hike in US interest rates. At the same time, many investors suggest that a continuous growth in the USD has ended since a rate increase is obvious and already priced into the markets. In this situation, many market participants prefer taking profits on USD long positions.
    The Japanese currency and the country's economy also gain support from low commodity prices.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the price has formed a Pin-bar that suggests a possible correction after downward movement.
    Support levels: 121.00, 120.50, 120.00.
    Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 123.00.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 121.00 with targets at 120.50, 120.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.00 with targets at 122.30, 123.00 and stop-loss at 121.70.

  4. #24

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    XAU/USD: general review
    Current trend
    Yesterday the pair was trading in the range 1076.43-1069.34 and closed at opening levels, but today managed to overcome the support level at 1072.23 and falling.
    Today data on Retail Sales is due in the US. According to forecasts, the index will grow by 0.2%, which if confirmed will pressure the XAU/USD pair.
    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and bottom MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone suggesting a fall. ADX also signals the decline as DI lines cross each other, while the ADX line is moving down.
    Support levels: 1055.87 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1053.21, 1046.57 (last week low).
    Resistance levels: 1072.23 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1086.41 (this week high), 1096.71, 1105.84, 1125.28, 1138.12.
    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1055.87 and stop-loss at 1072.23.
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1072.23 with the target at 1086.41 and stop-loss at 1067.00.

  5. #25

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    USD/JPY: review and forecast
    Current trend
    Having opened this trading day with a growth, the US Dollar started declining in the European session. However, later on, an upward dynamics resumed. The American currency is strengthening amid a fall in oil and precious metals prices.
    Recently, BOJ Governor stated the Regulator might continue easing monetary policy to stimulate wage growth in Japan. The next BOJ meeting is due on 17-18 December, while the Fed announces its interest rate decision on 16 December.
    Support and resistance
    After a growth at the opening of the trading day, the USD/JPY pair has started declining towards the support level of 121.50 (Fibonacci 50.0%) during the European session.
    However, when the correction ends and OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart turn up, the pair is likely to resume its growth within an upward channel on the daily chart.
    Support levels: 121.50, 121.35.
    Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 122.50.
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.10 with targets at 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 121.80.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 121.25 with targets at 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 121.55.

  6. #26

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    EURUSD has been down a bit, it seems that the pair is going under some corrections and it might continue to do so, has to wait for any positive moves.

  7. #27

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    EUR/USD: general analysis
    Current trend
    The Fed holds its finial meeting of the year on Wednesday. Many market participants expect a hike in US interest rates, so if the forecast is confirmed, the European currency is likely to weaken.
    However, as long as inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, it might be seen as a determining factor for a forthcoming decision. Another negative aspect is Manufacturing PMI which came in below the key level of 50 points. This data might indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
    Thus, in its decision making, the Fed will consider labor market statistics, inflation rate and the world economic situation.
    Supportandresistance
    Since the opening of the trading day, the European currency has been slightly declining against the US Dollar.
    The key resistance level is still at 1.1040 the breakout of which would allow the price to continue growing towards 1.1150-1.1200.
    Support level: 1.0925.
    The nearest resistance level: 1.1055.
    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0925 with the target at 1.0875 and stop-loss at 1.0950.

  8. #28

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    AUD/JPY: pair resumed its decline
    Current trend
    The AUD/JPY pair has declined from its local lows, reached in the first week of December. The Japanese currency has gained support form speculations over the upcoming Fed meeting. Though a hike in US interest rates is forecasted, investors suggest market reaction might be different than expected. It is possible that monetary policy tightening has already been priced into the market.
    Last week, the Australian currency was growing only on Thursday amid the publication of unexpectedly favorable labor market statistics for November. Employment Change came in at 74.1K while a decline in the indicator by 10.0K had been forecasted. Unemployment Rate was down to 5.8% from 5.9% against expectations of an increase to 6.0%.
    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is turning down, while the price range is widening. However, the indicator has formed a signal for an upward correction. MACD keeps its downward trend. Stochastic is near the border of the oversold zone and trying to turn up.
    It is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 87.00, 86.45 (10 November low), 86.00, 85.69, 85.00.
    Resistance levels: 87.30, 88.00, 88.60, 89.12 (10 December high), 89.59, 90.00, 90.34, 90.71 (4 December high), 91.00.
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 87.30 with targets at 88.00, 88.60, 89.00 and stop-loss at 86.70. Validity – 2-4 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 87.00 with the target at 86.00 and stop-loss at 87.50. Validity – 2-3 days.

  9. #29

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    AUD/USD: general review
    Current trend
    Since the beginning of the week, the pair is growing.
    Today the pair was supported by strong data from Australia. New Motor Vehicle Sales for November grew to 6%, while the House Price Index came out in line with forecasts at 2%. At the same time, the pair is pressured by expectations of the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due tomorrow. Markets expect rates to be increased that would add to the pressure on the pair.
    Today attention needs to be paid to the Consumer Price Index in the US. Volatility on the market is expected to be low.
    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 100 and 144 periods are above the price and directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes remain almost unchanged. ADX indicates pair’s decline, DI lines cross over and directed down.
    Today, the pair is expected to remain within the range of 0.7247-0.7302.
    Support levels: 0.7247 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.7182, 0.7159 (this week low), 0.7133, 06984, 0.6908.
    Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7302 (MA100), 0.7343 (last week low), 0.7353, 0.7385.
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.7280 with targets at 0.7302, 0.7343 and stop-loss at 0.7260.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7247 with the target at 0.7182 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
    Scenario validity – 1-2 days.

  10. #30

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    USD/CAD: review and forecast
    Current trend
    On Monday, the USD/CAD pair hit its highest levels in more than 11 years. The demand for the US Dollar is strong ahead of the Fed meeting. The Canadian Dollar, in its turn, is under enormous pressure from falling oil prices.
    Most investors expect a hike in US interest rate by 0.25 basis points. It is the tone of Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen’s comments that still raises doubts. If she points to a slow-paced series of rate increases, the USD will strengthen slightly. Otherwise, in case of a more hawkish view, a surge in the USD is expected.
    Consumer Price Index is due today in the US. In monthly terms, zero inflation is expected; in annual terms, analysts forecast an increase from 0.2% to 0.4%. More positive data will strengthen the USD.
    Later on, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz gives his speech. Low oil prices are strongly affecting the country’s economy, and the Regulator might reduce its interest rate to minus -0.5%. If such a possibility is confirmed, the CAD would weaken more against the USD.
    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, a doji pattern has formed that suggests the possibility of a downward correction.
    Support levels: 1.3675, 1.3623, 1.1355.
    Resistance levels: 1.3780, 1.3823, 1.3900.
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3785 with targets at 1.3825 and 1.3900.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3675 with targets at 1.3630 and 1.3560.

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