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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #311

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    XAG/USD: technical analysis

    XAG/USD, D1

    On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the trend is upward. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are slightly growing, the signal line crosses the histogram’s body upwards, giving a signal to open long positions. The Stochastic is moving alongside the border between the neutral and the overbought zone, giving no clear signal.

    XAG/USD, H4

    On the 4-hour chart the pair is trying to rebound from the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The price range is widening, keeping the possibility of the further price growth. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a weak buy signal. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone on the border with the overbought zone. In case of an upward breakout the sell signal will be received.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 17.90, 17.55, 16.75, 16.25, 15.50.
    Resistance levels: 18.57, 19.10, 20.00.

    Trading scenario

    According to the technical indicators, it’s better to open long positions at the current price with the target at 18.50. Stop loss is at 17.60. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
    Open short positions at the level of 17.50 with the target at 16.80 and stop loss at 17.90. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

  2. #312

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    NZD/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    During the last week the pair was lowering and lost about a half of the 2 months growth (more than 200 points). The decrease is a result of many factors. The first is the RBNZ decision to keep the interest rate on the same level of 1.75%, which is minimal for last 5 years. The lowering of the rate affects the national currency negatively. The second are the positive USD data: Initial Jobless Claims, which is better than expected, the Import Price Index (much better than the previous value and the growth of the Oil Rig Count, which reflects the increase in oil production, oil rice lowering and the growth of the USD.

    Yesterday and today the price continues to test the strong and important level 0.7170, the cluster of 38% and 50% Fibonacci from the whole range of the price movement during the last 3 years and the last falling wave. The reaction to this level will determine the price dynamic in the nearest perspective.
    Today the important issues are the USA Producer Price Index (expected to be lower than the previous value, which is negative) and Fed's Yellen Speech, which can affect the market greatly.

    Support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 0.7485, 07390, 0.7340, 0.7250.
    Support levels: 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7170.

    Trading scenario

    Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7250, 0.7340, stop loss is at 0.7130.
    Alternative scenario: in case of a downward breakout at 0.7170 open short positions with the target at 0.7100, 0.7050, stop loss is at 0.7220.

  3. #313

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    EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Euro’s fall against the US Dollar that was happening since last week got a new impulse after the European Commission released its growth forecast on Monday. Despite being quite positive about the eurozone perspectives, the report highlighted a number of problems and uncertainties, such as GDP growth below expectations, upcoming negotiations with the UK about their departure from the EU, lack of clarity about intentions of the new Trump’s administration, as well as questions about the labour market and inflation.

    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Trade Balance from the eurozone and Consumer Price Index from the US, and also to Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech that could substantially support the Dollar.

    However, with generally positive outlook for the eurozone, the recent decline in the Euro could be a search by large players for a good entry to purchase the pair.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0340, 1.0210.
    Resistance levels: 1.0650, 1.0707, 1.0820, 1.0930.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.0707, 1.0820 and stop-loss at 1.0520.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0707 with the target at 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0760.

  4. #314

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    XAU/USD: general analysis

    Current trend
    Yesterday, gold was strengthened after the speech by Janet Yellen. In her speech, the head of the American regulator stressed that the next tightening of monetary policy depends directly on the statistics of labor market and real estate, as well as on the growth rate of inflation in the United States. At the same time Yellen highlighted the opinion of most members of the committee that delay of the interest rates raise would be unwise.

    In addition, precious metals received support from the news of resignation of Michael Flynn. The adviser of US President for National Security admitted that he discussed the sanctions against Moscow with Russian ambassador before Trump entered the office. This news may serve as growth driver for XAU/USD in the medium term, as now, market participants are afraid of failure of Trump's plans to reduce the tax burden and to increase budget expenditures.
    Today traders will pay attention to the publication of macroeconomic statistics on the US real estate, as well as on the US labor market. If both indicators will be positive for the US economy, the Fed will receive a strong signal to raise interest rates, which would support the dollar.

    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, the pair is trying to gain a foothold above the level of 1236.00. The indicator "Bollinger Bands" is directed upwards, and the price range continues to expand, reflecting the continuation of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, giving a buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the overbought area.

    Support levels: 1226.07, 1217.71, 1206.37, 1195.62.
    Resistance levels: 1236.66, 1247.57, 1258.32.

    Trading tips
    Long positions should be opened at the current price with the targets at 1240.70, 1244.30 and stop loss at the level of 1230.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
    Short positions can be set at the level of 1230.50 with take profit at 1219.00 and stop loss at 1237.80. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

  5. #315

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    NZD/USD: technical analysis

    NZD/USD, D1
    On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are horizontal. The RSI turned down having failed its longer MA. The Composite, however, is growing.
    NZD/USD, H4
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading just below the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 but above the SMA200 that turned horizontally. The RSI is about to test its longer MA. The Composite is falling having broken down its longer MA.

    Key levels
    Support levels: 0.7174 (local lows), 0.7054 (April 2016 high), 0.6983 (November 2016 lows).
    Resistance levels: 0.7254 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), 0.7315 (July 2016 highs), 0.7332 (local highs).

    Trading tips
    The price seems to have formed a new descending channel having bounced off its upper border. The fall could continue.
    Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7220 with targets at 0.7174, 0.7054 and stop-loss at 0.7254. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7254 with targets at 0.7315, 0.7332 and stop-loss at 0.7235. Validity – 3-5 days.

  6. #316

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    EUR/TRY: technical analysis

    EUR/TRY, D1

    On the daily chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that start turning sideways. The RSI is testing its most recent support, and thus may be forming a “double bottom” reverse formation. The Composite begins diverging with the price.

    EUR/TRY, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that turned down. The RSI is growing having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

    Key levels


    Support levels: 3.8330 (local lows), 3.8081 (December 2016 highs), 3.7913 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
    Resistance levels: 3.9205 (local highs), 3.9547 (local highs), 4.0110 (local highs).

    Trading tips


    There is a chance of an upward reverse in the price.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 3.9205 with targets at 3.9547, 4.0110 and stop-loss at 3.9015. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 3.8330 with targets at 3.8081, 3.7913 and stop-loss at 3.8454. Validity – 3-5 days.

  7. #317

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    NZD/USD: the pair returns to the descending channel

    Current trend
    After the collision with the strong resistance level, the pair reversed and consolidated within the downtrend. The main catalyst for the trend change were recent statements of the Head of US Federal Reserve regarding a possible rise of interest rates in the near future.
    This week's economic calendar doesn’t contain major releases, so the pair will be affected by the trading sentiment. To date, trading sentiment is in favor of the US dollar.
    An alternative scenario in the short term would be the formation of sideways consolidation due to the lack of economic catalysts and decreasing demand.

    Support and resistance
    Technical indicators confirm the forecast of the fall: MACD shows a decrease in the volumes of short positions.
    Support levels: 0.7105, 0.7080, 0.7035, 0.7005, 0.6970, 0.6915, 0.6885, 0.6860.
    Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7310, 0.7370, 0.7400, 0.7445.

    Trading tips
    Building up short positions within the trend, entry point would be the current level, targets – 0.7035, 0.6860, stop-loss – 0.7180.

  8. #318

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    USD/JPY: general review

    Current trend

    The USD/JPY pair was growing during the trade session on Tuesday. This was caused by hawkish comments of some FRS officials. US stocks were growing too, which influenced dollar rate positively, putting pressure on the yen. The values of Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit PMI Composite turned out to be lower than expected. Nevertheless, the index values above 50 points show the overall economy growth, strengthening the US dollar.

    The pinnacle event of the week is release of FOMC meeting minutes. During the release, the market would probably experience high volatility.

    Support and resistance

    On the H4 chart, the pair was corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The MACD histogram is near zero line and has minimum volume, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line from below, which will be a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in neutral zone, near the oversold zone. If this border is crossed, this will be a signal to buy.
    Support levels: 113.00, 112.75, 112.30, 112.00, 111.65.
    Resistance levels: 113.50, 113.88, 114.41, 115.00, 115.50.

    Trading tips

    Long positions with targets at 113.80 and stop-loss at 112.80 may be opened at the current price.
    Short positions could be opened at the level of 112.80 with targets at 112.30 and stop-loss at 113.15.
    Implementation time: 1-2 days.

  9. #319

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    GBP/USD: general review

    Current trend

    The latest macroeconomic data from the UK showed some mixed signals. Despite yearly GDP growth forecast for 2016 was revised down from 2.0% to 1.8%, economists point out that it was largely attributed to lower North Sea oil production in the first half of 2016. The manufacturing and service sectors, however, continued showing strength and consumer spending remained strong. On the other hand, the recent figures showed that business investment and wages growth slowed that could be a result of Brexit uncertainty. Lower wages growth will likely lead to a fall in consumer spending that together with higher inflation could have a substantial negative impact on the Pound in the medium-term.

    Support and resistance

    The pair continues trading in a sideways channel. There is a chance the price will retest its February highs.
    On the daily chart, the RSI is testing its longer MA from below while keeps showing a Bearish behaviour. The Composite, however, failed its strong support level having formed a divergence with the price, suggesting a growth possibility.
    Support levels: 1.2365 (local lows), 1.2290 (November 2016 lows), 1.2197 (December 2016 lows).
    Resistance levels: 1.2506 (local highs), 1.2591 (local highs), 1.2695 (February highs).

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2510 with targets at 1.2591, 1.2695 and stop-loss at 1.2476. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2365 with the target at 1.2290 and stop-loss at 1.2390. Validity – 3-5 days.

  10. #320

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    XAU/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Yesterday the XAU/USD pair rose to a level of 1250.85, updating 4-month maximum, due to the release of weak US unemployment data. The number of initial claims month increased from 238K to 244K. The negative statistics on the labor market significantly reduces the likelihood of interest rate hike at the March meeting of the Fed. Thus, the market expectation regarding the imminent tightening of monetary policy is assessed as very low, which contributes to the strengthening of the precious metals.

    Today traders are waiting for the stats on new home sales in the US. The Head of the Fed has stated that the statistics on sales of new homes was an important element in the decision on the interest rate.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the pair is approaching the upper boundary of "Bollinger Bands" from below. Indicator is directed upwards, and the price range is narrow, indicating a high probability of change of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic is going to enter the overbought zone.

    Support levels: 1247.36, 1235.44, 1229.35, 1216.16.
    Resistance levels: 1256.53, 1264.87, 1272.49.

    Trading tips

    Short positions should be opened at the level of 1254.00 with the targets at 1243.00 and a stop-loss at the level of 1257.10. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
    Long positions can be opened at the level of 1257.50 with targets at 1264.70 and a stop-loss at the level of 1252.50. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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