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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #321

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    EUR/USD: general review

    Current trend

    The pair is trading in a narrow range of 1.0550-1.0610. Consolidation takes place due to the political and economic uncertainty in Europe and the United States.
    Euro is under pressure of the upcoming elections in France. If the candidate of the "National Front" party Marie Le Pen comes to power, France may withdraw from the Eurozone, which would significantly weaken the rate of EUR/USD.

    Dollar remains under pressure of political factors as well. Despite the fact that the US economy is recovering, and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee promise an imminent rate hike, there is uncertainty about future fiscal policy of the new US government. On Tuesday, President Trump will speak before Congress and present its "ambitious plan to reduce taxes."

    Today stats on orders for durable goods will be published in the US. According to the forecast, the indicator is expected to grow by 1.7%. In the case of negative data, the dollar is going to be weakened.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart the pair is moving within the descending channel and successfully gained a foothold below the level of 1.0610. MACD is below both zero and signal lines, its volumes are growing, the lines of Stochastic are pointing upwards. The indicators do not give a specific signal.

    Resistance levels: 1.0610, 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0750.
    Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0520, 1.0460.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.0650 with the targets at 1.0700 and 1.0750 and stop loss at 1.0610.
    Short positions will be relevant below the level of 1.0520, the goal – 1.0460, stop-loss – 1.0550.

  2. #322

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    AUD/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    A decline in the Australian Dollar after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech last week was caused by the decision to keep an interest rate at the level of 1.5%. At the same time, in light of growing commodity prices the fall in the Australiana currency cannot be lasting. Today the pair slightly strengthened amid a publication of a number of macroeconomic releases in Australia. Most likely, it was supported by strong data on the Current Balance.

    Today extra attention needs to be paid to data from the US on the GDP, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence. However, as markets are waiting for today’s Donald Trump speech in Congress, volatility might remain low.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490. *
    Resistance levels: 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7780, 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7630.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7660 with targets at 0.7600, 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7700.

  3. #323

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    Brent Crude Oil: long downward correction

    Current trend

    Crude oil price still consolidates within a narrow side channel, as the US dollar tendency is still unclear, and also because there is contrast of growing oil reserves in USA and reducing oil reserves in OPEC and major oil exporters. Technically, the price the pair reached the upper border of the upward channel, but it can't break the resistance, lacking catalyzing factors. Consolidation channel is narrowing, and a breakout is highly possible; all we have to do now is determining its direction. Let's consider all pros and contra and decide on the chances of these situations actually happening. At the moment, demand for US dollar is supported only by FRS statements of USA economy having strong perspectives and willingness to hike the rate soon, but economic indicators state the opposite. This means that USA macroeconomic data can influence the dollar price and, accordingly, crude oil prices. This week, attention should be paid to job market data, Markit Services PMI and of course Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.

    According to US Department of Energy, oil reserves continue to grow, which surely will influence the price. On the other hand, OPEC and major oil exporters dispel all doubts following the agreement to put freeze on crude oil stocks, and they even cut them. OPEC state that the agreement is very effective for stabilizing the global crude oil market. This agreement keeps the oil price at current high level. But we shouldn't expect fast growth: any violation of agreement or US key interest rate growing, and we'll see the oil quotes falling. This means that price is unlikely to decrease.

    Support and resistance
    Disregarding the upward trend, long downward correction is highly probable. In short term, short positions could be opened with targets depending on the dynamics: 45.40 if the market is highly volatile, and 47.70 if the market is tranquil. Technically, indicators don't give a clear signal due to low liquidity.

    Support levels: 54.70, 53.75, 53.10, 51.95, 49.50, 57.70, 45.40.
    Resistance levels: 56.75, 58.50, 60.00, 61.95.

    Trading tips
    In this situation, short positions could be opened at current level, with short Stop Loss order at 59.20 (above the upper border of the range) — and with targets at 45.40, 47.70.

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