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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #31

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    USD/JPY: pair returned to growth
    *
    Current trend
    Yesterday the USD/JPY pair significantly strengthened. Trading in the pair was very volatile due to a large number of macroeconomic publications that was coming out and approaching US Fed meeting at which, as expected, the regulator will increase its key interest rate.
    The pair was supported by strong data on consumer inflation in the US. The Consumer Price Index for November grew from 0.2% to 0.5% that was better than economists forecasted. *
    *
    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is slowly narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a buy signal. Stochastic bounced off the oversold zone and growing.
    The indicators recommend long positions.
    Support levels: 121.48, 121.00, 120.56, 120.34 (14 December low), 120.00 (22 October low), 119.62, 119.39.
    Resistance levels: 122.00 (local high), 122.22 (11 December high), 122.60, 122.93, 123.35, 123.66 (2 December high), 124.00.
    *
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 122.22 with targets at 123.25, 123.66 and stop-loss at 121.40. Validity – 2-4 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 122.00 with targets at 121.00, 120.50, 120.30 and stop-loss at 122.60. Validity – 2-3 days.

  2. #32

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    GBP/USD: general analysis
    Current trend
    Yesterday, the British Pound declined against the US Dollar. The pair was under pressure amid the publication of favorable statistics on Redbook index which grew by 1.5% from the previous 1.9%. Consumer Price Index was up by 0.5% that is 0.1% above the forecast.
    Today, attention needs to be paid to Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings data, released in the UK. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3%.
    However, the most important news is due in the US – the Fed announces its interest rate decision. Amid this publication, the market will be highly volatile. However, until the Fed decision is released, the pair is likely to continue moving down.
    Support and resistance
    The nearest support level is 1.4965 (8 December support level).
    The resistance level is 1.5082 (MA24, 4 December low and 7 December high).
    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.5046 with the target at 1.4965 and stop-loss at 1.5082.

  3. #33

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    EUR/USD: waiting for Fed meeting
    Current trend
    Yesterday the pair fell and lost about 150 points, which was the result of a publication of strong data in the US. The Consumer Price Index grew to 0.5% that was 0.1% higher than forecasts. Today attention of traders is focused on the Fed meeting where the regulator could increase its key interest rates for the first time since 2006. Usually, a rate increase significantly supports the national currency.
    The Fed Interest Rate Decision is due at 9 pm (GMT+2), its press conference is planned for 9:30 pm (GMT+2). Very high volatility is expected on the market.
    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the lower and middle MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone but its volumes are rapidly falling.
    Support levels: 1.0907 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0871 (MA100), 1.0794, 1.0565, 1.0527.
    Resistance levels: 1.0930 (MA50), 1.0970 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.1035 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0959 (current week high).
    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0907 with the target at 1.0800 and stop-loss at 1.0930.
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.0970 with the target at 1.1035 and stop-loss at 1.0930.
    Validity – 1 day.

  4. #34

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    EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend
    The single European currency continues declining against the US Dollar. The main factor which affects the EUR/USD pair is the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.25 points. Moreover, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that more rate hikes are possible over the next year if US economy continues strengthening. Therefore, the European currency will remain under pressure for quite a long period of time.
    Economists suggest that US Unemployment Rate will decline to 4.7% during 2016-2018, while economic growth will reach the level of 2.2%.

    Support and resistance
    Support level: 1.0858 (1/8 Murray level).
    The nearest resistance level is 1.0900 (0/8 Murray level).

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0800 with the target at 1.0740 and stop-loss at 1.0825.

  5. #35

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    AUD/USD: in contracting triangle


    Current trend
    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates. This decision confirms the Fed is confident that US economic recovery is sustainable and suggests the Regulator has a favorable outlook for the global economy.
    RBA, in its turn, is likely to keep loose monetary policy due to weak inflation. Moreover, the Australian Dollar is under pressure from a continuous fall in commodity prices, in iron ore price in particular, as Australia remains the largest exporter of this raw material. Therefore, the AUD/USD pair tends to continue declining.

    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, a contracting triangle has formed with the lower border near the level of 0.7190 and the upper border at 0.7335 (EMA144). The price is likely to breakdown the lower border of the triangle and continue declining to 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980 and 0.6910 (year lows).
    In case of a correctional growth, the price might reach the level of 0.7335 (EMA144 on the daily chart). An upward trend would resume only after the consolidation above the levels of 0.7465 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 0.7510 (23.6% Fibonacci).
    Support levels: 0.7215, 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910.
    Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7500.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 0.7170, 0.7150, 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7250.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7260 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7335, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7190.

  6. #36

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    USD/CAD: review and forecast


    Current trend
    During yesterday’s session, the pair significantly grew.
    The pair was supported by strong data on the US labour market, where the number of Initial Jobless Claims fell from 282 to 271 thousands, against a forecasted decline to 275 thousands. In addition, the pair is supported by strengthening after the Fed decision on interest rates US Dollar and falling oil prices. In current conditions, the Bank of Canada might decide to continue with monetary policy easing and cut the interest rate to -0.5% that would add to the pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Consumer Price Index for November in Canada.


    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, MACD’s histogram is above the zero and its signal lines indicating strong upward trend. The K% line of Stochastic is about to cross over the D% line suggesting a possibility of a correction in the pair.
    Support levels: 1.3900, 1.3840, 1.3800.
    Resistance levels: 1.4000, 1.4050, 1.4100.


    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4000 with targets at 1.4050, 1.4100.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3900 with targets at 1.3840, 1.3800.

  7. #37

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    XAU/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    On Thursday, the XAU/USD pair was falling, being under pressure from the Fed’s decision to increase the interest rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent. Having lost more than 2500 points, the price for gold was moving down towards its year lows, reached at the beginning of December. At present, the price has started correcting up in the area of 1054.35.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the lower and the meddle MAs of Bollinger Bands. MA50, MA100 and MA144 are above the current price and directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. The DI lines of ADX are crossing each other and directed down.
    The indicators confirm a downward trend in the XAU/USD pair.
    Today, the price is likely to remain within the channel between the lower and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands.
    Support levels: 1049.85 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1049.98 (December low).
    Resistance levels: 1067.73 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1084.65, 1099.14, 1120.41, 1133.94, 1165.35, 1191.93.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1060.50 and stop-loss at 1051.00. Validity – 1 day.

  8. #38

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    USD/JPY: BoJ loose monetary policy


    Current trend
    At the meeting on Friday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy mostly unchanged. BoJ Governor stated the Regulator aims at achieving an inflation rate of 2 per cent; however, much depends on the price of oil. Therefore, Japan’s Central Bank might start taking more decisive action soon.
    Today, the US Dollar is gaining back its losses against the Japanese Yen. As the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have different approaches to monetary policy, the USD/JPY pair tends to be strengthening in the medium term.


    Support and resistance
    Strong support levels are 121.35 (EMA on the daily chart) and 120.55 (EMA200 and the lower border of an ascending channel on the daily chart, 61.8% Fibonacci). After the consolidation below the level of 120.55, the price might decline further to 120.00 and 118.85.
    If the price overcomes the resistance levels of 121.50 (50.0% Fibonacci), 122.10 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci), an upward trend might resume towards 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci), 124.50 and 125.00 (the upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
    On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions; on the 4-hour chart, the indicators are turning to long positions, suggesting a downward correction is, possibly, nearing the end.
    Support levels: 121.35, 121.00, 120.55, 120.00, 118.85.
    Resistance levels: 121.50, 122.10, 122.50, 123.00, 123.70.


    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 121.90, 122.10, 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50, 125.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 121.10 with targets at 120.55, 120.00, 118.85 and stop-loss at 121.60.

  9. #39

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    GBP/USD: important statistics
    *
    Current trend
    Important data on the UK economy is expected during the week.
    Tomorrow data on the Current Account is due. According to forecasts, in November the budget deficit increased by about 4.7 billion Pounds. On Wednesday, data on the third quarter GDP is out. The figure is expected to remain at 0.5%, unchanged from the previous quarter. At the same time, latest data on consumer inflation showed a near-zero growth, while producer price indices significantly fell.
    Therefore, absence of inflation growth and poor macroeconomic statistics shift the expectations of monetary policy tightening in the UK to the second half of 2016 that will continue pressuring the pair.
    *
    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, the pair is falling towards the lower border if a descending channel near the level of 1.4860.
    An upward correction in the pair could continue up to the levels of 1.5000 (ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart), 1.5085 (ЕМА144), 1.5120 (ЕМА200), 1.5230 (23.6% Fibonacci correction and upper border of the descending channel). At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 1.4860 will accelerate the fall towards 1.4800, 1.4750 and 1.4600 (year lows).
    On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to purchases.
    Support levels: 1.4860, 1.4800, 1.4750.
    Resistance levels: 1.4960, 1.5000, 1.5085, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5230.
    *
    Trading tips
    Open short positions from current prices with targets at 1.4860, 1.4800, 1.4750 and stop-loss at 1.4930.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4940 with targets at 1.5000, 1.5085, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5190 and stop-loss at 1.4890.

  10. #40

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    EUR/USD: general analysis


    Current trend
    The single European currency is trading slightly up against the US Dollar. At present, the pair remains within the range of 1.0910-1.0930. Analysts suggest the USD will continue strengthening as the Fed has started tightening US monetary policy. ECB, in its turn, tends to expand monetary stimulus to boost the EU economy.
    GDP data for the third quarter is due today in the US. If the indicator comes in above the forecast of 1.9%, EUR short positions should be placed.*


    Support and resistance
    The support level is 1.0807.
    The nearest resistance level is 1.1009.*


    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1009 with the target at 1.0815 and stop-loss at 1.1065.

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