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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #431

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    GBP/USD: pound is under the pressure of high inflation

    Current trend

    On Tuesday the pair was rapidly corrected to the level of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). US dollar was supported by strong July Retail Sales data (in July the index grew by 0.6%) and new rumors upon the soon Fedís interest rate rise. On the other hand, pound is under the pressure of June UK Consumer Price Index, which stayed at the same high level of 2.6%, as the fall of fuel prices was balance by the growth of food prices.

    The long term maintenance of the high level of inflation raises concerns of market, as the earning index in the UK donít keep pace with the Consumer Price Index growth, which leads to the impoverishing of the households, fall of retail sales and pressure on the GDP.

    Today the Average Earnings data will be published in the UK, the index including bonus is expected to stay on the same level of 2.0% and index excluding bonus ó on the level of 1.8% In this case the pair can decrease further. In addition, investors are waiting for the employment market data in the UK, which are expected to be more positive. The decrease of unemployment level from 5.9K to 3.7K is expected in June.

    Support and resistance

    Technically the pair is trading within the narrow sideways range of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%) and 1.2880 (Murray ), waiting for the employment and earnings data. In case of breakout of the upper border of the range the price can grow to the levels of 1.2930 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3005 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murray ). The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2845 can let it go down to the area of 1.2800 and 1.2750 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%).

    Support levels: 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2750.
    Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2930, 1.3005.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2930, 1.3005 and stop loss around 1.2840.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2845 with the targets at 1.2800, 1.2750 and stop loss at 1.2880.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  2. #432

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    LiteForex. USD/CAD: general analysis

    Current trend

    Yesterday the USD/CAD pair lost 1%, despite the fall of oil prices and decrease of the Canadian government bonds yield. The main cause of the fall was USA President Trumpís decision to dismiss his two business counsels. Thus Trump is losing the support of business community, which has expressed discontent upon Presidentís reaction to the Charlottesville incident. In addition, the USD is under the pressure of the FOMC Minutes publication. Most of the officials have expressed concern upon the low inflation level, accented that the level below 2% would stay longer than expected. This means that the US regulator will postpone the interest rate rise until 2019.

    Today in the evening the USA employment data will be published. The growth of Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims will let the USD/CAD pair to fall. Also, the traders will pay attention to FOMC Members Kashkari and Kaplan Speeches. The officialís commentaries upon the inflation and balance-sheet reduction can affect the further pairsí dynamics greatly.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart the instrument is in the correction around the support level of 1.2595. Bollinger Bands are reversing sideways, the price range is widening, reflecting the development of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is reaching the oversold area.

    Support levels: 1.2595, 1.2510, 1.2400.
    Resistance levels: 1.2675, 1.2790, 1.2845, 1.2930.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2590 with the target at 1.2500 and stop loss at 1.2620. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
    Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2680 with the target at 1.2785 and stop loss at 1.2595. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

  3. #433

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    LiteForex EUR/USD: the pair is trading in the downward channel

    Current trend

    On Thursday the pair tested the level of 1.1700 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) again, but couldnít consolidate below it and began to grow after the poor July US Industrial production data publication (the indicator decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%). At the moment the price is trading around the middle line of Bollinger Bands (1.1740) due to controversial factors. EUR is under the pressure of the terrorist acts in Spain, as USD is affected by the conflict in Trumpís administration. The rumors about the chief President economic advisor Gary D. Cohn resign were not confirmed, which slowed the fall of the US currency.

    Yesterday the Head of FRB Robert S. Kaplan mentioned that the politics and investors should be patient and reasonable in waiting for the new interest rate rise. He also said that the balance-sheet reduction process can be started in the nearest future, while itís better to wait for the stable growth of the inflation before the interest rate rise, which disappointed the market.

    Support and resistance

    Technically the pair is trading within the downward channel and is tending to its upper border at the area of 1.1780 (Fibonacci correction 38.2% for the long term trend). In case of breakout the price can grow to August highs at the level of 1.1880. In case of reversal around 1.1780 the fall to the key support level of 1.1700 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%, Murray ) is possible.

    Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1590, 1.1500.
    Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1880, 1.1950.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the current price or at the level of 1.1780 with the targets at 1.1700 and 1.1590 from stop loss at around 1.1810.
    If the price is set above the level of 1.1780, long positions will become relevant with the target at 1.1880 and stop loss at 1.1760.

    Read more analytic on LiteForex site Forex market analysis

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