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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #41

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    XAG/USD: growth impulse getting weak
    Current trend
    Yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said a hike in US interest rates is seen as a start of a new period in US economic growth. US economy has a solid momentum going into 2016. He also noted the Fed might continue increasing rates not at every meeting but every other meeting. Therefore, the US Dollar tends to strengthen while the price of precious metals will remain under pressure.
    However, due to geopolitical tensions and global financial markets instability, demand for the safe haven assets might increase.
    Support and resistance
    Despite OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend long positions, the growth impulse is getting weak.
    The price reached the resistance levels of 14.20 (ЕМА144), 14.30 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Theoretically speaking, an upward correction might reach the level of 14.45 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
    The pair is trading in a descending channel on the daily chart with the lower border near the level of 13.50 and in a descending channel on the weekly chart with the lower border below the level of 13.20. After the breakdown of the level of 14.00 (August lows), the fall will accelerate.
    Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.65, 13.50.
    Resistance levels: 14.45, 14.80, 15.05, 15.30.
    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.20 with targets at 14.00, 13.65, 13.50, 13.20 and stop-loss at 14.40.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.55 with targets at 14.75, 15.00 and stop-loss at 14.40.

  2. #42

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    XAU/USD: general analysis
    *
    Current trend

    After a strong growth at the beginning of the week, the price of gold declined and was ranging between 1080.68 and 1071.79 on Tuesday. At present, the price remains in the area of 1073.85 and might start correcting up to this week high 1081.60.
    Durable Goods Orders statistics for November are due today in the US. This data is an important indicator for the market; its growth has a positive effect on the economy. However, analysts expect a decline to -0.7% from 3.0% in October that might affect the USD and ease the pressure on the XAU/USD pair.
    *
    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. MA50, MA100 and MA144 remain above the current price and directed down. According to the indicator, the pair is in a negative trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with almost no volumes. ADX indicator suggests a decline in the pair. The DI lines are directed parallel and down, ADX is falling.
    Support levels: 1068.46 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1051.22, 1046.43 (beginning of December low).
    Resistance levels: 1084.74 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1097.67, 1118.26, 1131.65.
    *
    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1080.87 and stop-loss at 1068.46.
    If the price consolidates below the level of 1068.46, short positions would become valid. Open short positions from the level of 1065.60 with the target at 1051.22 and stop-loss at 1073.00.

  3. #43

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    USD/JPY: pair declined
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    Current trend

    Last week, the Japanese Yen gained support when the Bank of Japan decided to keep monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor gave a generally favorable outlook of the country’s economy.
    At present, the USD/ JPY pair still tends to continue declining.
    However, Japan is undergoing a period of a weak growth in Industrial Production, Services PMI and a decline in exports. Moreover, inflation will remain low in the medium term. Thus, BoJ might have to consider further changes to monetary policy.
    *
    Support and resistance

    A decline in the pair has stopped at the support level of 120.55 (EMA200 on the daily chart and 61.8% Fibonacci) which is also the lower border of an ascending channel on the daily chart. While the price remains above this level, it tends to grow in the medium term.
    The breakout of the resistance levels of 121.35, 121.50 (50.0% Fibonacci), 122.00 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci) would allow the price to strengthen to 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci), 124.50 and 125.00 (upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
    On the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, OsMA histogram is near the zero line. Amid a decline in trading activity due to the upcoming holidays, the pair is likely to remain near the level of 121.00.
    Support levels: 120.55, 120.00, 118.85.
    Resistance levels: 121.35, 121.50, 122.00, 122.50, 123.00, 123.70.
    *
    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 121.60 with targets at 121.90, 122.00, 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50, 125.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 120.35 with targets at 120.00, 118.85, 118.00 and stop-loss at 120.75.

  4. #44

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    AUD/USD: growth in oil prices supported AUD
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    Current trend

    Yesterday, after the Energy Information Administration reported a fall in US crude inventories, the price of oil grew by 3.8%.
    Since opening of the trading day, the AUD/USD pair has been strengthening amid a growth in commodity prices. The Australian Dollar gained support as Australia is a large exporter of commodities.
    However, in the medium term, the pair tends to continue declining due to different approaches to monetary policy of the Fed and RBA.
    Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims data, due in the US. If the indicator comes in below the forecast, the pair might get another impulse for growth.
    *
    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions.
    The nearest resistance level is 0.7290. If this level is broken out, a growth to 0.7325 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will be possible.
    If the price declines below the level of 0.7210, it might move further down to 0.7100 (lower border of an ascending correctional channel on the daily chart).
    Support levels: 0.7210, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910.
    Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7325, 0.7400, 0.7450, 0.7510.
    *
    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7220 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7250.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7310 with targets at 0.7325, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7280.

  5. #45

    Default

    USD/JPY: general analysis
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    Current trend
    The Japanese Yen continues strengthening against the US Dollar amid the publication of BoJ economic report.
    Initial Jobless Claims statistics are due today in the US. Analysts expect the indicator to be down by 1K to 270K. Such dynamics suggests strong labor market conditions and might support the US Dollar.
    Tomorrow, attention needs to be paid to Japan’s Unemployment Rate which is expected to increase by 0.1% to 3.2%. Weakness in the labor market affects the country’s economy and the JPY exchange rate.
    *
    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the MA50, MA100 and MA144, directed parallel and horizontally. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are growing; thus, negative dynamics in the pair is likely to develop.
    Support levels: 120.12 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 118.80, 118.06, 117.20, 116.19.
    Resistance levels: 121.73, 122.00, 122.50, 123.60, 124.25, 125.27.
    *
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 120.12 with the target at 121.15 and stop-loss at 119.85.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 119.85 with the target at 119.00 and stop-loss at 120.12.
    Validity – 2 days.

  6. #46

    Default

    XAG/USD: pair corrected
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    Current trend
    Last week the pair slightly strengthened amid closing of short positions by traders prior to Christmas holidays.
    In addition, gold and silver prices were supported by growing oil prices that managed to strengthen after the publication of oil reserves data in the US. The data showed that reserves fell by 5.88 million barrels, while experts predicted a 1.5 million barrels growth.
    At the same time, the market attention shifts to fresh macroeconomic statistics that are coming out in the US and which could help to determine future changes in monetary policy.
    *
    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains unchanged. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 14.30 (local low), 14.20, 14.00, 13.90, 13.82, 13.63 (14 December low).
    Resistance levels: 14.48 (local high), 14.63 (7 December high), 14.77, 15.00 (beginning of November high), 15.15, 15.25.
    *
    Tradingtips
    Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 14.20 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 14.63, 15.00 and stop-loss at 14.00. Validity – 2-4 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 14.20 with targets at 14.00, 13.80, 13.60 and stop-loss at 14.50. Validity – 3-4 days.

  7. #47

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    AUD/USD: pair strengthened
    *
    Current trend
    Last week the pair strengthened by 100 points amid some weakening in the USD.
    Tomorrow data on the Producer Price Index for the fourth quarter is due in Australia. Considering strong decline in oil prices during the last quarter that dragged down all commodities’ prices, the index is unlikely to show a growth. Thus, an absence of inflation growth could force the RBA to ease monetary policy further. At the same time, amid gradual policy tightening in the US the pair will remain under pressure in the medium-term.
    Tomorrow attention also needs to be paid to data from the US on Goods Trade Balance, Rebook Index and Consumer Confidence.
    *
    Support and resistance
    The pair broke out its trendline and resistance level at 0.7210 but failed to reach the key resistance level at 0.7330 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
    A breakdown of the levels of 0.7210, 0.7120 (lower border of a correctional upward channel on the daily chart), 0.7100 (December lows) would resume a downward trend towards 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910 (year lows).
    At the same time, a price consolidation above the levels of 0.7450 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.7510 (23.6% Fibonacci correction) would return the pair in an uptrend.
    On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend purchases, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators turned to sales.
    Support levels: 0.7210, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910.
    Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7330, 0.7400, 0.7450, 0.7510.
    *
    Trading tips
    Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 0.7250 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
    Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 0.7310 with targets at 0.7330, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7280.

  8. #48

    Default

    XAG/USD: general review
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    Current trend

    Yesterday the pair fell and lost about 50 points.
    Market volatility is expected to be low today. Attention needs to be paid to data on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall that might pressure the USD. Also, pay attention to data on Consumer Confidence that is expected to grow by 3.4%.
    *
    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and middle MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100, and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a negative trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. ADX is falling and DI lines are directed down indicating a fall in the pair.
    Support levels: 13.86, 13.67.
    Resistance levels: 14.03, 14.19, 14.40.
    *
    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.03 with the target at 14.19. Validity – 1 day.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 13.86 with the target at 13.67. Validity – 1 day.

  9. #49

    Default

    XAU/USD: pair remains within range
    *
    Current trend

    On Monday, the price of gold declined by 0.7% to $1068 per ounce.
    US Fed aims at gradual tightening of monetary policy. As long as the US Dollar will be strengthening, the price of gold is likely to remain under pressure. Borrowing costs for purchase and storage of gold tend to increase.
    From 3:30 to 8:00 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to US news releases, among which Consumer Confidence data for December. The indicator is expected to be up to 93.8 from 90.4 points that will support the US Dollar.
    *
    Support and resistance

    In December, the XAU/USD pair has been trading within the range of 1085.00-1050.00.
    On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, but a growth in the pair is limited by the resistance levels of 1075.00 (EMA144) and 1080.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the indicators have started giving sell signals. However, due to a lack of drivers, the price is likely to remain within the range.
    Fundamental factors create prerequisites for a further decline in the price of gold.
    Support levels: 1071.00, 1067.00, 1060.00, 1050.00.
    Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1080.00, 1085.00.
    *
    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1068.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1040.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1077.00.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1082.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1088.00 and stop-loss at 1079.00.

  10. #50

    Default

    XAU/USD: pair remains within range
    *
    Current trend

    On Monday, the price of gold declined by 0.7% to $1068 per ounce.
    US Fed aims at gradual tightening of monetary policy. As long as the US Dollar will be strengthening, the price of gold is likely to remain under pressure. Borrowing costs for purchase and storage of gold tend to increase.
    From 3:30 to 8:00 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to US news releases, among which Consumer Confidence data for December. The indicator is expected to be up to 93.8 from 90.4 points that will support the US Dollar.
    *
    Support and resistance

    In December, the XAU/USD pair has been trading within the range of 1085.00-1050.00.
    On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, but a growth in the pair is limited by the resistance levels of 1075.00 (EMA144) and 1080.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the indicators have started giving sell signals. However, due to a lack of drivers, the price is likely to remain within the range.
    Fundamental factors create prerequisites for a further decline in the price of gold.
    Support levels: 1071.00, 1067.00, 1060.00, 1050.00.
    Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1080.00, 1085.00.
    *
    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1068.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1040.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1077.00.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1082.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1088.00 and stop-loss at 1079.00.

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