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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #71

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    AUD/USD: growth might resume

    Current trend
    On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair tested the level of 0.6950, the 23.6% Fibonacci correction level. The Australian currency managed to strengthen when the US released not so favorable December’s data on inflation. Though Consumer Price Index came in at 0.7% in annual terms, it was 0.1% below the forecast. In monthly terms, the indicator was down to -0.1%. However, the pair is still under pressure from a gradual slowdown in China’s economy as the country is the largest trading partner of Australia.

    Support and resistance
    The pair is heading to 0.6895, the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The breakdown of this level allows the pair to continue falling to 0.6835 and 0.6800. Alternatively, if the price turns up and overcomes the 23.6% Fibonacci level, it might grow further to 0.7020 and 0.7080.
    Generally, according to technical indicators, the pair tends to grow. Bollinger Bands indicator is turning up. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are falling. Only Stochastic lines have crossed each other and turned down, forming a sell signal.
    Support levels: 0.6950, 0.7020, 0.7080.
    Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.6835, 0.6800.

    Trading tips
    Long positions are preferable and can be opened from the level of 0.6950 with targets at 0.7020, 0.7080. Moreover, Buy Limit orders can be placed at the level of 0.6895 with the target at 0.6950.
    If the price consolidates below the level of 0.6895, short positions can be opened with targets at 0.6835 and 0.6800.

  2. #72

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    XAU/USD: general review

    Current trend
    The price of gold continues growing amid yesterday’s news regarding a possibility of the QE program expansion by the ECB. In the nearest future, the price is likely to grow to the level of 1112.50 where the pair traded at high volumes. After that, the price will fall.

    Support and resistance
    The RSI is below the 70 mark indicating that the growth can continue to the level of 1115.00.
    Support levels: 1074.52 (moving average with 200 period).
    Resistance levels: 1112.50.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1112.50 with the target at 1074.80 and stop-loss at 1114.00.
    Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1114.00.

  3. #73

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    USD/JPY: no change in trend yet

    Current trend
    A growth in stock indices followed ECB President Mario Draghi comments on future monetary policy in the eurozone. Japanese stock index NikkeiStockAverage also gained support when an aide to Japanese Prime Minister pointed out that further easing of monetary policy is necessary. Together with the index, the USD/JPY pair is growing as well. If the Bank of Japan introduces additional stimulus measures, the pair will manage to gain back its recent losses.
    Today, attention needs to be paid to Markit Manufacturing PMI for January and CB Leading Indicator for December, due in the US. If the indicators come in above the forecast, the USD/JPY pair will strengthen.

    Support and resistance
    During the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair grew by 30 points from the level of 117.70 and continues moving up, having strengthened above the level of 118.20.
    OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend long positions. However, as long as the price remains below the level of 118.80, no significant growth is expected.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 118.40 with targets at 118.80, 119.20, 119.65, 120.00, 120.55 and stop-loss at 117.80.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 117.30 with targets at 117.00, 116.50, 116.10 and stop-loss at 117.80.

  4. #74

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    USD/CAD: pair fell

    Current trend
    In the end of last week, the pair significantly fell amid substantial growth in oil prices.
    In addition, the Canadian Dollar was supported by strong macroeconomic data from Canada. Retail Sales in November 2015 grew by 1.7% while economists predicted a 0.2% growth. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index in December grew by 1.6%, against a 1.4% growth in the previous month that was, however, slightly worse than forecasts. Similar index by the Bank of Canada in December fell by 0.4% that was also a little worse than expectations.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart turned horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and giving a very strong sell signal. Stochastic reached its critical level in the oversold zone thus limiting further fall potential.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 1.4100 (local low), 1.4050, 1.4000 (psychologically important level), 1.3915, 1.3850, 1.3780, 1.3700.
    Resistance levels: 1.4169 (local high), 142.00, 1.4245, 1.4315 (21 January high), 1.4400, 1.4450, 1.4500, 1.4609, 1.4700 (20 January high).

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.4100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.4200, 1.4250 and stop-loss at 1.4000. Validity – 1-2 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.4100 with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.4150. Validity – 1-3 days.

  5. #75

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    EUR/USD: general review
    *
    Current trend
    The pair continues growing amid some weakening in the USD.
    The American currency remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due today. Experts predict that monetary policy will stay unchanged. Furthermore, due to problems in China and falling oil prices the regulator might delay the next rate hike until summer that would significantly support the pair.
    *
    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 1.0787 (active trade), 1.0820.
    Resistance levels: 1.0977, 1.1370.
    *
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0820 with the target at 1.1370 and stop-loss at 1.0780.

  6. #76

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    USD/CHF: waiting for the Fed decision
    *
    Current trend
    Today the pair is falling amid some weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision. Experts do not expect the rate to be hiked. At the same time, investors will focus their attention on commentaries by the regulator, in which there could be announced that monetary policy tightening is going to be delayed that would substantially pressure the pair.
    *
    Support and resistance
    On the hourly, 4-hour and weekly charts, the pair is moving along ascending channels.
    A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0120 (middle of the channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0100 (ЕМА50), 1.0040 (ЕМА144, lower border of the channel), 1.0000 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). From further fall the pair is prevented by support levels at 0.9855 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.9830 (December 2015 lows).
    At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0195 would send the pair towards 1.0400 (upper border of the channel on the weekly chart).
    On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic signal sales.
    Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0100, 1.0040, 1.000, 0.9975, 0.9830, 0.9765.
    Resistance levels: 1.0195, 1.0400.
    *
    Trading tips
    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0130 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0040, 1.0000, 0.9855 and stop-loss at 1.0160.
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0185 with targets at 1.0200, 1.0260, 1.0300 and stop-loss at 1.0140.

  7. #77

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    XAG/USD: technical analysis
    *
    XAG/USD, D1
    On the daily chart, the pair is trading above the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA100 and EMA144, both directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are insignificant. The DI lines are directed down; ADX is growing.
    *
    XAG/USD, H4
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the area of the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The DI lines are moving in different directions; ADX is falling.
    *
    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 14.37, 14.25, 13.99, 13.78, 13.68.
    Resistance levels: 14.52, 14.70, 14.95, 15.28, 15.51, 16.13, 16.34.
    *
    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.52 with targets at 14.70, 14.95 and stop-loss at 14.37.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.37 with targets at 14.25, 14.00 and stop-loss at 14.50.
    Validity – 1-2 days.

  8. #78

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    USD/JPY: general review
    *
    Current trend
    The pair continues growing even though the Fed at yesterday’s meeting left the interest rate unchanged.
    At the same time, the Bank of Japan is expected to expand its stimulation program to reach the inflation target of 2% that would lead to further fall in the Yen. Furthermore, cheaper national currency would allow increasing Japanese exports and making them more competitive, that would have a positive effect on the economy.
    According to forecasts, the pair can grow to the level of 125.00.
    *
    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 117.85.
    Resistance levels: 119.10.
    *
    Trading tips
    Open long positions from the level of 119.20 with the target at 122.35 and stop-loss at 118.90.

  9. #79

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    EUR/USD: general review

    Current trend
    Today the pair continued growing despite the publication of mixed data in the eurozone. The Producer Price Index for December fell to -0.8% that was substantially worse than forecasts of economists. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate slightly fell as well, from 10.5% to 10.4%. Therefore, continuous decline in prices could force the ECB to expand its stimulation program or cut interest rates further, either of which would significantly pressure the Euro.

    Support and resistance
    Support levels: 1.0894.
    Resistance levels: 1.0943.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0943 with the target at 1.0890 and stop-loss at 1.0955.

  10. #80

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    AUD/USD: pair resumed fall

    Current trend
    Yesterday the pair significantly fell after the RBA decision on interest rates. As was expected, the regulator left the rate unchanged at 2%.
    At the same time, in its Rate Statement the regulator noted that it does not rule out further monetary policy easing this year if the economy continues slowing down due to the outside factors. It also noted that inflation is likely to remain very low in the medium-term.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is turning down and forming a sell signal. Stochastic is falling.
    The indicators recommend short positions.
    Support levels: 0.7015 (local low), 0.6981, 0.6936, 0.6900 (21 January low), 0.6875, 0.6850, 0.6826 (15 January low).
    Resistance levels: 0.7045 (local high), 0.7068, 0.7100, 0.7128 (local high), 0.7158, 0.7183, 0.7200 (5 January high).

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7015 with the target at 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.7060. Validity – 2-3 days.
    Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7015 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7100 and stop-loss at 0.6960. Validity – 2-3 days.

    Analytics from LiteForex

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