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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #81

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    USD/CAD: pair is falling

    Current trend
    Yesterday the pair significantly declined amid growing oil prices that were supported by strong data on the Caixin China Services PMI.
    In addition, the pair was pressured by mixed data from the US. The ADP Employment Change for January came out at 205 thousands that was better than forecasts but substantially worse than the previous figure. The Markit Services PMI for January fell from 53.7 to 53.2 points, which did not match the expectations.
    Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to labour market data from the US and Canada.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is slowly widening. MACD continues growing. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn up.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 1.3780 (local low), 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3622 (10 December 2015 low), 1.3554, 1.3500.
    Resistance levels: 1.3850 (local high), 1.3900, 1.3947, 1.4000 (psychologically important level), 1.4050, 1.4100 (local high), 1.4169, 1.4200, 1.4325 (26 January high).

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3780 with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.3700. Validity – 2-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3700 with targets at 1.3550, 1.3500 and stop-loss at 1.3760. Validity – 2-3 days.

  2. #82

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    USD/CHF: Franc continues growing

    Current trend
    Last week the pair significantly fell.
    The pair was pressured by the latest Fed monetary policy meeting that substantially decreased chances of further interest rate hikes in the US. In addition, the USD was pressured by poor data on the Nonfarm Payrolls that fell from 262 to 151 thousands, while economists predicted 190 thousands. However, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 4.9%, while Average Hourly Earnings grew by 0.5%.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning down while the price range is widening. At the same time, the indicator formed a signal for correctional growth as the price has left the range. MACD is falling and giving a strong sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and turning horizontally.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 0.9920 (local low), 0.9900, 0.9879 (11 January low), 0.9851 (24 December low), 0.9818, 0.9800, 0.9784 (14 December low).
    Resistance levels: 0.9956 (local high), 1.0000 (psychologically important level), 1.0032, 1.0067, 1.0100, 1.0123 (3 February high), 1.0166, 1.0200, 1.0254 (29 January high), 1.0281.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.0000 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.0100 and stop-loss at 0.9960. Validity – 2-4 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.0000 with the target at 0.9900 and stop-loss at 1.0050. Validity – 2-3 days.

  3. #83

    Default

    EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    The European currency was strengthening against the US Dollar. The pair gained support from Iran’s decision to replace the US Dollar with the Euro in its oil sales. Moreover, Teheran has required buyers of its oil to pay their debts in euros as well. Thus, India, which owes about $6 billion, has already reached an agreement on this issue with Iran. In this situation, the demand for the Euro might increase, and the currency is likely to continue strengthening.

    Support and resistance

    Support level: 1.1105.
    Resistance level: 1.1246.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1246 with the target at 1.1370 and stop-loss at 1.1200.

  4. #84

    Default

    EUR/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    The EUR/USD pair is trading near the important resistance level of 1.1230 (4/8 Murrey), after the breakdown of which, the pair continues declining to 1.1060 (MA200).

    The European currency is under pressure from concerns about future of Deutsche Bank. The bank owns a capital of about $60 billion and has about $75 trillion in derivatives, so the bank’s debt is incredibly high. Thus, one of Germany’s largest and systematically important banks might repeat Lehman Brothers’s fate. ECB is likely to support such a large bank, but panics might trigger another fall in the European currency and European indices.

    Support and resistance

    Support level: 1.1230.
    Resistance level: 1.1353.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1230 with the target at 1.1108 and stop-loss at 1.1250.

  5. #85

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    AUD/USD: technical analysis

    Current trend

    This week, the AUD/USD pair was falling and reached its three week low at 0.6972. However, a correction started, the level of 0.7078, where the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction have concentrated, was broken out. At present, the pair is likely to strengthen to 0.7136 (23.6% Fibonacci correction) and 0.7160 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands). At the same time, the Head and Shoulders pattern seems to be forming that indicates a possibility of a fall from 0.7136 and 0.7160 to 0.7032 (50.0% correction), 0.6986 (61.8% correction) and 0.6937.

    Support and resistance

    Technical indicators are giving mixed signals. Bollinger Bands are turning down, limiting a growth in the pair. MACD histogram is about to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal. Stochastic lines have started turning down near the overbought zone.

    Support levels: 0.7078, 0.7032, 0.6986, 0.6937.
    Resistance levels: 0.7136, 0.7160, 0.7229, 0.7300.

    Trading tips

    Short positions are preferable but can be opened below the level of 0.7078 with targets at 0.7032, 0.6986 and stop-loss at 0.7110.
    Long positions would become valid in case of the consolidation above the level of 0.7160 with targets at 0.7229, 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7130.

  6. #86

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    Brent: analysis and forecast

    Current trend

    Since the beginning of the week, the price of Brent crude oil has been gradually falling. Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration reported a decline by 754K barrels in US crude oil stocks; however, the price of oil did not manage to get any support. Despite a general decline in US crude inventories, investors were disappointed by the news about an increase at the country’s biggest oil storage hub in Cushing. According to the statistics, Cushing stocks rose by 0.5 million barrels to 64.7 million barrels that put the price of oil under more pressure.

    Support and resistance

    On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are growing. According to the indicators, the price will continue moving down.

    Support levels: 30.20, 29.20, 28.20.
    Resistance levels: 31.84, 32.30, 32.90, 33.90.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 30.20 with the target at 29.20. If the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 29.20, the next target will be 28.20.

    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 31.84 with targets at 32.30, 32.90.

  7. #87

    Default

    EUR/USD: general review

    Current trend

    The pair continues strengthening amid falling stock markets and weakening in the US Dollar. The Dollar was pressured by Fed Chair Janet Yellen testimony before the US Congress, after which the probability of further rate hikes significantly decreased. In addition, the head of the regulator stated that rate cuts remain a possibility if the situation requires this measure. And considering declining major macroeconomic indices and low inflation in the country, and the slowing Chinese economy, a possibility of this scenario exists.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 1.1224.
    Resistance levels: 1.1321.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1224 with the target at 1.1380 and stop-loss at 1.1185.

  8. #88

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    XAU/USD: growth will continue

    Current trend
    Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold substantially strengthened.
    The price was significantly supported by a crash of the world stock markets that reduced the appetite for risk and forced investors to switch into safe-haven assets, such as gold.
    In addition, the price was supported by the weakened US Dollar that remains under pressure due to the significantly lowered probability of further monetary policy tightening in the US this year.

    Support and resistance

    In the beginning of the month, the price broke out the upper border of a descending channel. In the short-term, a downward correction to the levels of 1174.50, 1153.85 is expected, after which a growth will resume.
    Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation in the medium-term. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Ichimoku point out to the growth as well.
    Support levels: 1207.65, 1198.70, 1194.00, 1186.85, 1174.05, 1153.85, 1145.10.
    Resistance levels: 1213.85, 1224.70, 1235.05, 1242.80, 1257.80, 1264.00.

    Trading tips
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the levels of 1186.85, 1153.85, 1145.10 with the target at 1300.00 and stop-loss at 1120.00.

  9. #89

    Default

    GBP/USD: triangle has been formed; breakout of the upper border is expected

    Current trend

    During several months, the British Pound was falling against the US Dollar. However, at the beginning of February, the GBP/USD pair started growing within a narrow ascending channel and reached the key resistance level of 1.4670. For the last few days, the pair has been trading in a sideways channel and forming a triangle pattern.

    Today, ahead of the macroeconomic releases, the Pound gained support and strengthened to the upper border of the triangle. However, later on, amid negative data on Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index, released in the UK, the pair fell to the lower border. Key statistics for the UK and the US which might influence dynamics in the pair are due tomorrow and at the end of the trading week.

    Support and resistance

    If the lower border of the triangle is broken down, the pair would fall to 1.4180. In case of favorable data on the UK, the price might overcome the upper border and continue growing to 1.4670 and 1.4775.

    According to technical indicators, the pair is likely to keep moving up. The price reached the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD shows that volumes of short positions are falling.

    Support levels: 1.4425, 1.4335, 1.4285, 1.4180, 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.3970.
    Resistance levels: 1.4510, 1.4565, 1.4600, 1.4670, 1.4740, 1.4775, 1.4915, 1.5020.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.4390 with the target at 1.4290 and stop-loss at 1.4420.
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.4530 with the target at 1.4630 and stop-loss at 1.4500.

  10. #90

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    Brent: general analysis

    Current trend

    Top oil producers – Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – have agreed to freeze oil output at 11 January level. This decision might help to tackle an oversupply of the global oil market. Thus, the price of oil has its chance to strengthen to $40 per barrel. However, at the same time, there is a lack of clear understanding of how long the agreement will last and whether the countries will strictly follow all its conditions.

    Support and resistance

    The price is trading slightly below the MA200.
    The nearest support level is at 32.00.
    The nearest resistance level is at 32.50.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 32.00 with the target at 30.47 and stop-loss at 32.20.

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