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Thread: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

  1. #1

    Default Forex Analysis by LiteForex

    With kind permission of the Administration we'll be glad to share our view of the Forex market with everybody.

  2. #2

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    GBP/USD: general analysis

    Current trend

    On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair managed to strengthen despite mixed labour market statistics, released in the UK.
    According to the Office for National Statistics, the Unemployment Rate for July to September declined from 5.4% to 5.3%, while analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged at 5.4%. At the same time, Average Earnings grew by only 2.5% that is below the forecast of 2.7% and the previous level of 2.8%.
    In his speech at the Open Forum 2015, Bank of England governor Mark Carney emphasized the important role of the UK as the "pre-eminent global financial centre". 40% of global foreign exchange trading, half of all trades in OTC interest rate derivatives and two-thirds of trading in international bonds go through London.

    Support and resistance

    The price is trading close to the key resistance level of 1.5250. This level would be broken out only if the US dollar comes under after the Fed representatives' speeches, due today.
    Support levels: 1.5171 (MA40).
    Resistance level: 1.5250 (28 and 29 October lows).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.5171 and stop-loss at 1.5250.


  3. #3

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    AUD/USD: flat after yesterday's growth

    Current trend

    Today, the AUD/USD pair is keeping its positions though the US dollar is strengthening against other currencies. On Thursday, the Australian dollar gained significant support from strong labour market statistics, released in Australia. Thus, Unemployment Rate declined from 6.2% to 5.9% in October, while Employment Change indicated a growth by 58.6K that is about four times above the forecast.
    Australia's economy is export-oriented, thus, it will benefit from a weaker national currency. At the same time, China, as Australia's biggest trading partner, is showing clear signs of economic slowdown, lowering inflation and weakening domestic demand.
    Today, attention needs to be paid to Retail Sales for October and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, due in the US. Favorable statistics will strengthen the US dollar.

    Support and resistance

    On Thursday, the price strengthened to the resistance level of 0.7150 (EMA50 on the daily chart, the upper border of a downward channel and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
    On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic indicators are turning to short positions.
    If the price fails to overcome the level of 0.7150, a downward trend may resume towards 0.7030, 0.7000 (the lower border of the downward channel), 0.6950 and 06910 (September and year lows).
    On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, indicating that the price may continue correcting up and breakout the level of 0.7150.
    Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
    Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7190, 0.7325, 0.7390, 0.7500.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7110 with targets at 0.7030, 0.6960, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7150.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7170 with targets at 0.7210, 0.7300, 0.7380 and stop-loss at 0.7140.



  4. #4
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    Default

    it's a good thinks

  5. #5

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    EUR/USD: decline is likely to continue

    Current trend

    Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistics are due today in the US. Ahead of these releases, the US dollar has strengthened against its major counterparts.
    At the same time, recent statistics confirm that the EU economy is facing low growth and a low inflation. Thus, due to the difference between monetary policy concepts of the Fed and the ECB, the EUR/USD pair remains under double pressure.

    Support and resistance

    The EUR/USD pair broke down the lower border of an upward channel on the weekly chart at the level of 1.0760 and continues declining towards year lows at 1.0500.
    OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend short positions.
    If indicators on the 4-hour chart give appropriate signals, the pair may start correcting up towards 1.0765 (EMA50 and the upper border of a downwards channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0820, 1.0860 (May, July lows) and 1.0930 (EMA144). Nevertheless, short positions are more preferable.
    Support levels: 1.0650, 1.0600, 1.0500.
    Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0765, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0860, 1.0930, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0650 with targets at 1.0620, 1.0590, 1.0510 and stop-loss at 1.0690.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0710 with targets at 1.0765, 1.0790, 1.0820, 1.0860 and stop-loss at 1.0680.



  6. #6

    Default

    EUR/USD: decline is likely to continue

    Current trend

    Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistics are due today in the US. Ahead of these releases, the US dollar has strengthened against its major counterparts.
    At the same time, recent statistics confirm that the EU economy is facing low growth and a low inflation. Thus, due to the difference between monetary policy concepts of the Fed and the ECB, the EUR/USD pair remains under double pressure.

    Support and resistance

    The EUR/USD pair broke down the lower border of an upward channel on the weekly chart at the level of 1.0760 and continues declining towards year lows at 1.0500.
    OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend short positions.
    If indicators on the 4-hour chart give appropriate signals, the pair may start correcting up towards 1.0765 (EMA50 and the upper border of a downwards channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0820, 1.0860 (May, July lows) and 1.0930 (EMA144). Nevertheless, short positions are more preferable.
    Support levels: 1.0650, 1.0600, 1.0500.
    Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0765, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0860, 1.0930, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0650 with targets at 1.0620, 1.0590, 1.0510 and stop-loss at 1.0690.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0710 with targets at 1.0765, 1.0790, 1.0820, 1.0860 and stop-loss at 1.0680.

  7. #7

    Default

    USD/JPY: BoJ Governor satisfied with GDP statistics

    Current trend

    Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.
    At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices declined, while Fed funds futures show a 72% chance of a rate increase in December against a 58% likelihood two weeks ago.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an upward channel with the upper border at the level of 129.00.
    OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions, but on the weekly chart, they are giving buy signals.
    The breakdown of 122.50 allows the pair to decline to the support levels of 122.00, 121.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and 50.0% Fibonacci). Otherwise, after the breakout of the resistance level of 123.70, the pair would strengthen to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
    Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
    Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.70.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 122.40 with targets at 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.

  8. #8

    Default

    USD/CHF: pair overbought

    Current trend

    Switzerland’s export-oriented economy is under pressure amid a slowdown in the eurozone and China. Moreover, a strong national currency makes Swiss export less competitive.
    Swiss inflation and retail sales growth have fallen to almost zero and industrial production has declined. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise its interest rates at December meeting. These factors will keep the Swiss franc from growing in the USD/CHF pair.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, the price is moving in an ascending channel between 1.0240 and 0.9800. Though the pair is overbought and is at its year highs, it still has a potential for growth.
    On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions. Nevertheless, on the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is starting giving a sell signal. Thus, a correction is possible to the support levels of 1.0120 (EMA50 and the lower border of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0000 (the middle of the channel on the daily chart and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
    Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
    Resistance levels: 1.0240, 1.0300.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0170 with targets at 1.0120, 1.0090, 1.0010 and stop-loss at 1.0210.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0220 with targets at 1.0240, 1.0300 and stop-loss at 1.0190.

  9. #9

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    XAU/USD: technical analysis

    Current trend

    XAU/USD, D1
    On the daily chart, the price remains below its moving averages with periods 10, 20 and 50 that are directed down, which indicates a downward movement in the pair. MACD’s histogram is in the negative zone that also indicates a fall. ADX also suggest decline as the DI lines are heading down and ADX is falling.
    XAU/USD, H4
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which is directed horizontally. The price remains below its MA10, MA20 and MA50, directed sideways. ADX turned down as it reached the level of 46.30, the DI lines are heading towards each other. MACD is at the zero line.

    Support and resistance

    Support levels: 1065.85 (local low), 1064.63 (last week low).
    Resistance levels: 1075.27 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart), 1080.00, 1081.25 (this week high), 1087.99 (last week high).

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1066.67 and stop-loss at 1075.27.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.50 with the target at 1087.00 and stop-loss at 1072.70.

  10. #10

    Default

    XAU/USD: pair resumed fall

    Current trend

    After Thanksgiving Day in the US yesterday when American markets were closed and volatility remained low, since today’s opening the XAU/USD pair is falling.
    Most likely, amid expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US downward dynamics in the pair will remain until the Fed’s meeting on 16 December.
    Currently, market expectations that are represented by the price of Fed Funds futures stand at 78% probability of an interest rate increase in December.

    Support and resistance

    The pair is falling along a channel on the daily chart with the lower border below the level of 1050.00, and is heading towards 965.00 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart).
    At the same time, an upward correction is possible to the levels of 1085.00, 1095.00 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 1105.00 (the middle line of the upward channel) could send the price towards 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
    On all charts from the 4-hour to monthly, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a fall continuation.
    Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00.
    Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.

    Trading tips

    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1064.00 with targets at 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1078.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.

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