Thread: Fresh Forex forecast

Daily Forex market review 13 July 2016



EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- In credit markets, yield of the 10-years' German government bonds is declining as compared to US and UK bonds. It makes investment in European assets more attractive.
- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- RSI on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat, too.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1,1010 -1,1110 (one ten ten – one eleven ten) (the bottom Bollinger band on the hourly chart).
GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- On credit markets, yield of the 10-years' UK government bonds is declining as compared to US and German bonds. It makes investment in British assets less attractive. It is impossible to ignore the press releases of many UK banks stating that on Thursday the Bank of England will make a step ahead and lower rate by 0.5% (zero dot five per cent).
- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- RSI on the 4-hours and hourly charts is overbought and has formed a divergence, it is the downtrend.
- Recommendation:We should open Sell positions from 1.3315 (one thirty three fifteen) and 1.3355 (one thirty three fifty five) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart) and take profit at 1,3235 (one thirty two thirty five) (area of the bottom Bollinger band on the hourly chart).
USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Stock markets are optimistic: US S&P500 index is storming new Highs, which contributes to growth of the currency pair. However, there is one factor which casts doubt on future growth of the stock markets - it is though moderate, but growing fear index VIX S&P500. This index is growing for the second day in a row, that signalsabout the downward correction.
- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- RSI on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat, too.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 103,50 (one hundred and three dot fifty) -105,00 (one hundred and five sharply) (the range of Bollinger bands on the hourly chart).
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Currency market review for July twenty seven

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- The positive report on durable goods orders in the US will support the dollar. Acceleratiion of economic growth allows to expect moderately positive comments of the Fed Reserve, which is also positive for US dollar.
Both indicators - ADX and RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts - show the flat.
Today, there is the flat range 1.0975 -1.1010 (one zero nine seventy five - one ten ten) (which corresponds to Bollinger envelope on the hourly chart)
- Recommendation: We should open Sell trades from 1.1015 (one ten fifteen), and take profit at 1,0975 (one zero nine seventy five)
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- Correction on the market of black gold may support the British currency in the first half of the day. The day before, the United States have once again encouraged investors with positive data on consumer confidence and new house sales. Thus, we wintess a steady economic growth, which usually provides US dollar with support .
Both indicators - ADX and RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts - show the flat.
Today, there is the flat range 1.3090 -1.3160 (one thirty ninety - one thirty one sixty) (which corresponds to Bollinger envelope on the hourly chart)
- Recommendation: We should open Sell trades from 1.3165 (one thirty one sixty five), and take profit at 1,3090 (one thirty ninety).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- US Federal Reserve may provide a moderately positive assessment of outlook of the US economy. That will boost yield of treasuries and thus will support US dollar.
- ADX Indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the uptrend
RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: We should open Buy trades from 105.40 (one hundred and five dot forty) and 104.80 (one hundred and four dot eighty). We should take profit at 105,80 (one hundred and five dot eighty) (area of ​​the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart).

Daily Forex market review 28 July 2016



EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- On the bond market, trend for euro is still negative: spread of yield of the 10-years' US and German bonds is expanded. It makes investment in US assets more attractive.
- ADX indicator on the 4-hours' chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the flat.
- RSI indicator shapes divergence in the overboughtness zone on the hourly chart, which means the downtrend
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1030 -1.1130. (one ten thirty – one eleven thirty)
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- The day before, traders ignored strong report on UK GDP for the second quarter. It proves a large number of sellers in the market. Another negative factor for the pair is sales on the oil market. The day before, US Department of Energy reported an increase of crude oil reserves by 1.6 (one dot six) million barrels – and that was after a nine-weeks' drop of reserves.
- Both indicators - RSI and ADX - show the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts
- Today, there is the flat range 1.3060 -1.3250 (one thirty sixty - one thirty two fifty) (which corresponds to Bollinger envelope on the hourly chart)
- Recommendation: We should open Sell trades from 1.3250 (one thirty two fifty) , and take profit at 1,3100 (one thirty one double zero).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Multidirectional vector of monetary policy of the US and Japanese Central Banks leaves investors no choice but to building long positions on decline of the price. Dynamics of the US stock market also indicates a continued uptrend: the day before, the fear index VIX closed the day in the "red zone", which is a positive factor for the stock market.
- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator shapes divergence in the oversoldness zone on the hourly chart, which means the uptrend
- Recommendation: We should open Buy trades from 104.50 (one hundred and four dot fifty) and take profit at 105,50. (one hundred and five dot fifty)

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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016



EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- On the one hand, sales on the commodity market will support the US currency, as the cost of commodities is denominated in USD. On the other hand, weak PMI on the UK manufacturing sector can have a positive impact on EUR/GBP (euro/pound) cross-rate. In its turn, it is positive for EUR/USD, so we expect a flat on this pair.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the uptrend.
- RSI indicator on the 4-hours chart is overbought, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1150 -1.1210 (one dot eleven fifty - one twelve ten)
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- Today, Markit information company will publish PMI report on the UK construction sector. Taking into account Brexit, we can expect release of weak data. Political risks jeopardize commercial and residential property markets. Sales are still observed on the oil market and Brent quotations are to test the psychological level $40/barrel, which means the downtrend.
Both indicators – ADX and RSI – on the daily, 4-hour s and hourly charts show the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3220 (one thirty two twenty) and take profit at 1,3140 (one thirty one forty)
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- The day before, the "fear" index VIX S&P five hundred 500 grew by 6%. In Europe, leaders of the most notable decline were shares of the banking sector including Italian shares. The outflow from risky assets will cause the inflow of capital into the Japanese yen, which means the downtrend.
Both indicators – ADX and RSI – on the daily, 4-hour s and hourly charts show the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 102.45 (one hundred and two dot forty five) and take profit at 101.90 (one hundred and one dot ninety).
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