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Thread: Where is going oil price ?

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    Senior Member fxtester's Avatar
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    Nov 2008

    Default Where is going oil price ?

    Technicals :

    On the upside :

    - Double bottom on 30$ level,
    - Tries to break 50$ level.

    On the downside :

    - Too many resistances on the upside (old supports),
    - 63.50$ will be difficult to break.

    Fundamentals :

    Going up :

    - Erosion of oversupply in 2016,
    - The world economy start to recover after a flat period.

    Going down :

    - Electric cars market share multiplied by three on the last three years,
    - Solar power will expand six-fold by 2030 and may dominate the power sector,
    - Solar energy production cost will fall as much as 59% by 2025,
    - Iran introduced as a new "player",
    - the production cost is profitable again for USA : increase of reserves,
    - natural shale gas production exploses.

    Source : Solar Energy Cost Benefits: Solar Power to Grow Six Fold by 2030

    Conclusion :

    On the mid term, oil price will continue to raise. It will be at 60-70$ by the end of the year according to oil industry professionals.

    On the long term, it will fall as renewable energies will get more and more market shares in the next years. Oil will be replaced by electricity for cars, but we will still need it for plane and tankers for a certain while. When ? it is still uncertain. A new battery technology could speed up the things.
    Last edited by fxtester; 06-24-2016 at 15:20.

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