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Thread: Daily Market Outlook by HYCM

  1. #1
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    Default Daily Market Outlook by HYCM

    Here we post best ideas and market outlook on primary forex currency pairs made by out top experts. Follow the thread!

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    EUR/USD

    The so long awaited BOJ and FED's economic policies announcements ended up being a big disappointment for dollar bulls, as both Central Banks decided to leave their policies basically unchanged. The BOJ left rates at -0.1%, a move meant to protect banks, but decided to introduce an interest rate target for 10-year government bonds, in a way to control the yield curve. The US Federal Reserve, also left its key rates unchanged, but this time, there were three dissenters, up from one last time, somehow indicating that a rate hike is around the corner. In the press conference, Yellen reiterated that the case for a rate hike strengthened, also indicating that a rate hike is not far away. As for the FED's ´dotplot´, it shows that policy makers are still expecting one more rate hike left for this 2016, and just two for 2017. Officers, however, cut their median growth projection for 2016 to 1.8% from 2%, mirroring the drop in the longer-run forecast, based on median estimates. Inflation is projected at 1.3% in the fourth quarter, down from a forecast of 1.4% in June.

    The dollar initially plummeted across the board, with the EUR/USD pair reaching 1.1196 before retreating modestly ahead of the press conference. Yellen's words, who said that they decided to leave rates unchanged due to labor market slack and low inflation, adding also that the economy has room to run, cast doubts over the pace of rate hikes, hurting any upward potential of the greenback. As for the technical picture, the EUR/USD pair did little progress, maintaining a neutral-to-bearish technical stance in its 4 hours chart, as indicators turned lower within neutral territory, while the price has been unable to advance above the 100 and 200 SMAs. Given the limited upward scope of the greenback, however, the pair may advance this Thursday, with a steady advance beyond 1.1200 required to confirm so.

    Support levels: 1.1160 1.1120 1.1080

    Resistance levels: 1.1200 1.1245 1.1280

    See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en/markets/daily-outlook

  3. #3
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    EUR/USD
    The greenback extended its decline this Thursday, still pressured by FOMC's decision to keep rates unchanged during their last meeting. Even through a December rate hike is a possibility, investors believe that policymakers are not yet ready to abandon the current accommodative stance and fully compromise with the tightening path. There were no macroeconomic releases in the EU, while in the US, data came in mixed, with weekly unemployment claims down to 252K for the week ending September 16, from the previous week's unrevised level of 260K. Existing-home sales eased up in August for the second consecutive month, declining by 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million in August from a downwardly revised 5.38 million in July.
    The EUR/USD pair advanced up to 1.1257, a fresh weekly high, before pulling back during the US afternoon, nearing the 1.1200 ahead of Wall Street's close. There was no catalyst behind this last intraday decline, except maybe the lack of follow-through forcing speculators to take some profits out of the table. The pair maintains a neutral stance, having stalled its advance below last week's high of 1.1283, still the level to surpass to confirm more sustainable EUR gains. The 4 hours chart suggests that such scenario is becoming unlikely, as the technical indicators in the mentioned chart have turned sharply lower within positive territory from near overbought readings, whilst the price is now back around its 100 and 200 horizontal moving averages. While it is too early to call for a slide according to technical readings, further slides below the 1.1200 level will put the pair at risk of a downward extension towards the base of this week's range at 1.1120.
    Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120
    Resistance levels: 1.1250 1.1280 1.1335
    See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en/markets/daily-outlook

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    EUR/USD
    The EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1226, range bound for a fourth consecutive week. Since late August, the pair has been trading within a well-limited 200 pips' range, with uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve decision sending investors to the side-lines. Still, the Central Bank failed to set the tone for the pair, offering a mixed tone, as while it left doors open for a December hike, it also showed no rush in tightening rates. Things in Europe were not helping the bullish case for the common currency, as September preliminary Markit PMIs showed that the services sector activity fell to a 21-month low. Manufacturing on the other hand, improved, both for the EU and Germany, but that was not enough to outpace services' reading, resulting in the EU Markit composite PMI falling to a 20 months low of 52.6 and the German reading falling to 52.7, the lowest in over a year.
    For this upcoming week, the US will once again take center stage, with the release of PCE inflation, Durable Goods Orders, the final revision for the Q2 GDP figure, and at least nine FOMC members scheduled to speak.
    The technical picture is neutral, as long as the price holds above 1.1120, but below 1.1366, August high. The pair continues developing within two large trend lines, with the longest being the ascendant one, coming from November 2015 low of 1.0505, and around 1.1080/90 for the upcoming days. As for the descendant trend line, it began at 1.1615, May 2016 high, and should offer some resistance if reached, currently around 1.1280. In the daily chart the price is above the moving averages, but the indicators remain all together and without directional strength, reflecting the absence of direction, while technical indicators hold within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the pair presents a moderate bullish tone, as the price is above its moving averages, and technical indicators in positive territory, although losing upward strength.
    Support levels: 1.1190 1.1160 1.1120
    Resistance levels: 1.1250 1.1280 1.1335

    See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en/markets/daily-outlook

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    EUR/USD
    The EUR/USD pair enjoyed some short term demand, rallying up to 1.1278 on Monday, before better-than-expected US housing data gave investors to reject the advance around a major static resistance level. As usual lately the week started in slow motion, with most majors trading in quite limited intraday ranges. New Home sales in the US slipped by less than expected in August, running at a 609,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, down by 7.6% on the month when compared to July, against expectations of a 8.6% decline. Also, helping the greenback were comments from FED's Lacker, an usual hawk, who said that the case for a December hike is strong. In the EU, Germany released its IFO survey showing that the business climate rose sharply in September, to 109.5 from 106.2 in August, with surged in both the current assessment and the expectations components.
    As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it continued trading within its latest range, stalling its recovery around a major resistance level, a daily descendant trend line coming from this year high at 1.1615. The pair also has multiple intraday highs and lows around the 1.1280 region, and as long as the price remains below it, the upward potential will remain limited. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart are starting to show some divergences, as while the price remains above a sharply bullish 20 SMA that already advanced above the 100 SMA, the Momentum indicator heads south towards its mid-line, while the RSI indicator retreats from near overbought readings. Additional declines below 1.1225 will increase the risk of a bearish continuation for this Tuesday, with 1.1160 as a probable bearish target should the dollar strengthen steadily.
    Support levels: 1.1225 1.1190 1.1160
    Resistance levels: 1.1280 1.1335 1.1365
    See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en/markets/daily-outlook

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    HY Markets
    EUR/USD
    Trading was choppy around the EUR/USD pair this Wednesday, as investors were waiting for speeches from both, ECB's Draghi and FED's Yellen. None of them, however, broke fresh ground when it comes to economic policies, leaving the pair marginally lower, down for a second consecutive day. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, spoke before the House Panel on Bank Supervision, and her speech was focused on banking supervision and regulations. When asked about rates, she just mentioned that there is "no fixed timetable for rising rates." As for Mario Draghi, he spoke about the current developments in the euro area, in Berlin, defending the ongoing Central Bank's policies, stating also that negative rates are not to blame for the woes of the banking sector. In the macroeconomic front, the US released its Durable Goods Orders for August, which came in flat, compared to the previous month, at 0.0%. Bad news within the report showed that shipments of capital equipment declined for a fourth straight month, which will probably result in a downward revision of Q3 GDP estimates.
    From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair continues making little progress this week, although the upward momentum seen last week keeps fading, as the pair posted a lower low daily basis. The 4 hours chart shows that the price was unable to recover above its moving averages, although the indicators remain mostly horizontal and confined within a 30 pips range, reflecting the absence of a clear trend, while the Momentum indicator in the mentioned time frame heads south below its 100 level and the RSI indicator consolidates around 47, leaning the scale towards the downside. Renewed selling interest below 1.1190, could see the pair extending its decline down to 1.1120 during the upcoming sessions, a strong static support.
    Support levels: 1.1190 1.1160 1.1120
    Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1280 1.1335
    See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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    EUR/USD
    The American dollar closed last week firmly up against all of its major rivals, helped by a flash crash in the British Pound early Friday. Still, the greenback was supported by generally encouraging local data released at the beginning of the week, that indicate that the US economy keeps growing at a steady pace. On Friday, the long awaited employment report came in a little lower than expected, but it was not enough to deny the case of a December rate hike. In September, the US created 156K new jobs, against 172K expected, the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.9% to 5.0%, whilst average earnings figure rose less than expected, but in line with average readings, up 0.2% MoM and back to 2.6% YoY. The EUR/USD pair seesawed after the release, but ended up recovering from a twomonth low printed at the beginning of the day at 1.1104, to end the day a handful of pips below the 1.1200 level, trapped within the same range for a sixth consecutive week. The absence of directional conviction among investors has deepened after both Central Banks moved to the sidelines, and market's attention is now on the second US presidential debate, late Sunday night, as a possible catalyst for some USD moves. Technically, the pair remains trapped between two longterm trend lines, with the longest being the ascendant one, this week around 1.1090/1.1100. In the daily chart, the price is hovering around horizontal moving averages, while indicators are within neutral territory, while in the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have recovered from oversold readings and pared gains around their midlines, while the price is above its 20 SMA, but below the 100 and 200 SMAs. Overall, the risk remains towards the downside, as long as selling interest surges in the 1.1245/1.1280 region.

    See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

    Support levels:1.1160 1.1120 1.1080

    Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1280 1.1335


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