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Thread: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

  1. #161

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    GBP/USD: inflation rate in the UK fell slightly
    14/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    After the data on inflation in the UK were released at the beginning of today's European session, the pound declined.
    According to the British Office of National Statistics, inflation in the UK in October was 3% (forecast was + 3.1%), which indicates the possible end of a sharp acceleration in price growth caused by the collapse of the British pound after last year's referendum on UK membership in the EU.
    Core inflation also failed to reach the forecast of 2.9%, amounting, as in September, 2.7%.
    Nevertheless, inflation is still much higher than the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than a salary, which means that consumer spending will remain low-key.
    This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
    The pound continues to remain under pressure also against the backdrop of the crisis that is ripening in the UK government. As you know, several dozen members of the British Parliament favored the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that 40 parliamentarians agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. The Brexit talks resumed last week, and, according to EU officials, Britain's hopes for the progress of negotiations in December are weakening.
    Thus, the problems in the negotiations of the UK with the EU on Brexit, political uncertainty in the country, based on growing dissatisfaction with the activities of the Prime Minister of the UK, as well as the Bank of England's restrained attitude to the issue of further tightening of monetary policy (as is known earlier this month, the Bank of England decided to raise the key interest rate by 0.25% and planned two more rate hikes in the next two years) create a negative background for the pound. To this, it should be added that last week the European Commission lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the UK this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the background of Brexit.
    At the same time, the dollar is recovering today. As it became known, the administration of President Trump will not support the law on taxes, if it provides for a corporate tax rate of over 20%. This was announced the day before by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support levels: 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
    Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3125. Take-Profit 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
    Buy Stop 1.3125. Stop-Loss 1.3080. Take-Profit 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #162

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    AUD/USD: Downtrend prevails
    15/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    Weak data on the growth of wages in Australia, as well as on the level of consumer confidence, published at the beginning of today's Asian trading session, "knocked" the Australian dollar, which fell 4-month low against the US dollar.
    According to data provided on Wednesday, wage growth in the 3rd quarter was 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.7%).
    The Australian dollar remained today almost the only major world currency, declining against the US dollar. And so far, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar remains negative.
    We are waiting for data from the USA today. It is expected that the growth in retail sales in October was 0% (against growth of 1.6% in September). The consumer price index, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences, is also expected with a value just above 0 (+ 0.1%).
    These are very weak values. If the weak data on inflation in the US are confirmed, the US dollar will continue to decline. In this case, an upward correction in the AUD/USD is likely.
    Recall that the publication of macro data from the United States is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    AUD / USD continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which runs near the support level of 0.7535 (balance line and EMA200 on the daily chart in April 2017).
    AUD / USD is below the key resistance levels 0.7710 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7740 (EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
    Downward dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
    In the event of further downside, the targets will be support levels of 0.7535, 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014; the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830 level). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 will return the AUD / USD into a global downtrend that began in July 2014.
    You can proceed to consideration of long positions only after AUD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 0.7740 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The growth targets in this case will be the levels of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.7885 (October highs), 0.7980 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
    Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
    Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7580, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
    Buy Stop 0.7660. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #163

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    Brent: the price may stay in the range until the end of November
    17/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    The third day, oil is trading in the range after a sharp decline in the price at the beginning of the week. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.21%, to 61.23 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's trading day was close to the level of 61.00 dollars per barrel.
    Nevertheless, at the beginning of today's European session, the price is close to 62.00, through which there is a strong short-term resistance level (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).
    Since the opening of the trading day, the price has risen by 1.00 dollars. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that on the eve of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of this month, prices may remain in the range. It is expected that the meeting will extend the deal to reduce oil production.
    As the UAE oil minister said earlier this week, "there is a potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the surplus on the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement," the minister added.
    Today (17:00 GMT), the report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy, will be published and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the indicator is 738 active drilling rigs.
    If the number of drilling rigs increases, this will indicate the next recovery of oil production in the United States. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units).
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels
    A strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force and keeps prices from a deeper decline. The current decrease should be considered so far as correctional.
    In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be resistance level 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart). The growth above the level of 65.30 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.30 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark.
    If the decline resumes, then up to the support level of 59.85 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), it should still be considered only as a correction in the uptrend.
    Long positions are preferred.
    Consideration of short medium-term positions is possible after the price returns under support level 59.85. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 61.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
    The medium-term targets in this case will be the support levels of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (August lows), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
    Support levels: 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
    Resistance levels: 62.00, 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00


    Trading scenarios
    Sell Stop 60.80. Stop-Loss 62.20. Take-Profit 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
    Buy Stop. 62.20. Stop-Loss 60.80. Take-Profit 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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