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Thread: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

  1. #161

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    GBP/USD: inflation rate in the UK fell slightly
    14/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    After the data on inflation in the UK were released at the beginning of today's European session, the pound declined.
    According to the British Office of National Statistics, inflation in the UK in October was 3% (forecast was + 3.1%), which indicates the possible end of a sharp acceleration in price growth caused by the collapse of the British pound after last year's referendum on UK membership in the EU.
    Core inflation also failed to reach the forecast of 2.9%, amounting, as in September, 2.7%.
    Nevertheless, inflation is still much higher than the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than a salary, which means that consumer spending will remain low-key.
    This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
    The pound continues to remain under pressure also against the backdrop of the crisis that is ripening in the UK government. As you know, several dozen members of the British Parliament favored the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that 40 parliamentarians agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. The Brexit talks resumed last week, and, according to EU officials, Britain's hopes for the progress of negotiations in December are weakening.
    Thus, the problems in the negotiations of the UK with the EU on Brexit, political uncertainty in the country, based on growing dissatisfaction with the activities of the Prime Minister of the UK, as well as the Bank of England's restrained attitude to the issue of further tightening of monetary policy (as is known earlier this month, the Bank of England decided to raise the key interest rate by 0.25% and planned two more rate hikes in the next two years) create a negative background for the pound. To this, it should be added that last week the European Commission lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the UK this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the background of Brexit.
    At the same time, the dollar is recovering today. As it became known, the administration of President Trump will not support the law on taxes, if it provides for a corporate tax rate of over 20%. This was announced the day before by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support levels: 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
    Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3125. Take-Profit 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
    Buy Stop 1.3125. Stop-Loss 1.3080. Take-Profit 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #162

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    AUD/USD: Downtrend prevails
    15/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    Weak data on the growth of wages in Australia, as well as on the level of consumer confidence, published at the beginning of today's Asian trading session, "knocked" the Australian dollar, which fell 4-month low against the US dollar.
    According to data provided on Wednesday, wage growth in the 3rd quarter was 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.7%).
    The Australian dollar remained today almost the only major world currency, declining against the US dollar. And so far, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar remains negative.
    We are waiting for data from the USA today. It is expected that the growth in retail sales in October was 0% (against growth of 1.6% in September). The consumer price index, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences, is also expected with a value just above 0 (+ 0.1%).
    These are very weak values. If the weak data on inflation in the US are confirmed, the US dollar will continue to decline. In this case, an upward correction in the AUD/USD is likely.
    Recall that the publication of macro data from the United States is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    AUD / USD continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which runs near the support level of 0.7535 (balance line and EMA200 on the daily chart in April 2017).
    AUD / USD is below the key resistance levels 0.7710 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7740 (EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
    Downward dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
    In the event of further downside, the targets will be support levels of 0.7535, 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014; the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830 level). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 will return the AUD / USD into a global downtrend that began in July 2014.
    You can proceed to consideration of long positions only after AUD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 0.7740 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The growth targets in this case will be the levels of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.7885 (October highs), 0.7980 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
    Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
    Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7580, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
    Buy Stop 0.7660. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #163

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    Brent: the price may stay in the range until the end of November
    17/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    The third day, oil is trading in the range after a sharp decline in the price at the beginning of the week. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.21%, to 61.23 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's trading day was close to the level of 61.00 dollars per barrel.
    Nevertheless, at the beginning of today's European session, the price is close to 62.00, through which there is a strong short-term resistance level (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).
    Since the opening of the trading day, the price has risen by 1.00 dollars. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that on the eve of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of this month, prices may remain in the range. It is expected that the meeting will extend the deal to reduce oil production.
    As the UAE oil minister said earlier this week, "there is a potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the surplus on the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement," the minister added.
    Today (17:00 GMT), the report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy, will be published and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the indicator is 738 active drilling rigs.
    If the number of drilling rigs increases, this will indicate the next recovery of oil production in the United States. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units).
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Support and resistance levels
    A strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force and keeps prices from a deeper decline. The current decrease should be considered so far as correctional.
    In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be resistance level 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart). The growth above the level of 65.30 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.30 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark.
    If the decline resumes, then up to the support level of 59.85 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), it should still be considered only as a correction in the uptrend.
    Long positions are preferred.
    Consideration of short medium-term positions is possible after the price returns under support level 59.85. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 61.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
    The medium-term targets in this case will be the support levels of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (August lows), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
    Support levels: 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
    Resistance levels: 62.00, 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00


    Trading scenarios
    Sell Stop 60.80. Stop-Loss 62.20. Take-Profit 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
    Buy Stop. 62.20. Stop-Loss 60.80. Take-Profit 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  4. #164

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    GBP/USD: the range remains relevant
    20/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    Published in the press on the weekend news, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to create a ruling coalition, caused a surge in volatility at the opening of trading on Monday.
    Euro, as well as European stock indexes, above all, DAX (the leading German index), fell at the opening of today. The fall of the euro against the pound in the pair EUR / GBP caused, on the contrary, the growth of the pound, including against the dollar. The pound gets support also against the backdrop of the fact that British Prime Minister Theresa May will most likely convince the government to support the increase in the payment to the European Union for Brexit.
    As you know, the financial question is the cornerstone in the Brexit process. In September, British Prime Minister Theresa May promised that Britain would pay its share in the EU budget until 2020. But the EU authorities said that they still do not have a clear understanding of whether the UK will fully fulfill its obligations. The final amount of payments on Brexit may exceed 60 billion euros. It even mentions a figure of 100 billion euros, but representatives of the UK dispute this figure.
    Last week, the representative of the EU in Brexit talks from the EU Michelle Barbier stated that it would be time for Britain to clarify the situation on the issues of "exit" from the bloc.
    The draft budget will be presented on Wednesday. UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will present his plan for taxes and expenses, which, apparently, will be met with approval. On this positive for the pound background, the GBP / USD pair can update the local highs of the previous month near the 1.3335 mark.
    Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the pound will remain negative until the details of the UK's exit procedure from the EU are finally understood.
    Investors will also be interested in data on public sector borrowing, which will be presented on Tuesday (09:30 GMT), as well as the volume of capital investments of British companies in the third quarter, which will be known on Thursday (09:30 GMT). Also at this time on Thursday will be published the second estimate of GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter. Economists expect that in the third quarter GDP grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, which coincides with a preliminary estimate.
    Also volatility in the financial markets may rise on Wednesday, after at 18:00 (GMT) will be published "FOMC minutes". In the published minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, investors will seek signals on the future of US monetary policy. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the United States. According to interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December in the US is above 90%.
    Economists expect that the US labor market situation will continue to improve, and inflation will rise to a target level of 2%, which will force the Fed to raise the key interest rate four times next year.
    And this is the strongest factor for the growth of the dollar, including in the pair GBP / USD.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
    Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3280. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
    Buy Stop 1.3280. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  5. #165

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    NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
    21/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    The large-scale decline in the New Zealand dollar, which began in August, continues. An additional downward impulse to the New Zealand currency was given by the general elections held in late September in New Zealand, as a result of which the ruling conservative party was defeated. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. First of all, this refers to the improvement of the situation on the labor market of the country. For example, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
    It is still too early to say what adjustments the new government will make to the earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, a survey of business circles conducted earlier this month in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The new government of New Zealand intends to reassess the RBNZ policy. Now the decision-making in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, whereas the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
    As a result of the meeting of the RB of New Zealand held in early November, the interest rate was maintained at the current level of 1.75%.
    According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
    Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
    On the other hand, the US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market both the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against expectations of a gradual increase in the rate of the Fed. According to some economists, the Fed can raise the rate not three, but four times in 2018.
    Fundamental factors support the further reduction of the NZD / USD pair.
    From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.5% (against the previous value of -1.0%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products will harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775
    Resistance levels: 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


    Trading scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6775, 0.6700
    Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7100




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  6. #166

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    S&P500: major indexes have updated highs
    22/11/2017
    Current dynamics

    World stock indexes on Wednesday continued to rise. On the eve, the major US stock indices Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite updated record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 23590, S & P 500 added 0.7%, Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.
    The leaders of growth were shares of technology companies. Apple's shares rose 1.9%, International Business Machines shares rose 1%, Microsoft shares rose 1.4%. The shares of these three technological giants made the largest contribution to the growth of DJIA. The shares of retailers also significantly strengthened. "Dollar Tree" went up by 2.4%, after the profit and proceeds of this discounter exceeded expectations. Shares of Hormel grew by 3.3%.
    Yesterday's rally completely offset the losses suffered by the indices in the last two weeks. This points to the strength of growth, despite concerns about the high ratings and unclear prospects for the tax reform proposed by the Republicans.
    Only a large increase in rates or a decline in the economy, according to economists, could lead to a more significant decline in the American stock market. In the next 6-12 months, this is not expected, therefore, most likely, the bullish trend will continue.
    On Wednesday, trading on the stock markets is sluggish in anticipation of a weekend in the US on Thursday, and a shortened one on Friday.
    Investors analyzed the statement of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who said that she would withdraw from the Board of Governors of the Central Bank, as soon as Jerome Powell will replace her at the post in February.
    Today Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the business school at New York University, which investors regarded as soft. "We expect inflation to rise (to the target level) in the next one or two years, but I have to say that I'm not sure about it", Yellen said.
    "We have almost reached full employment", Yellen said. The unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, becoming the lowest since December 2000. The Fed is facing a problem of low inflation for most of this year, despite the growth of the economy and a strong labor market.
    Yellen did not comment on the immediate prospects for monetary policy. The probability of a rate hike in December is above 90%, according to the CME Group. The last time the Fed raised rates in June, to the range of 1% -1.25%. At its meeting on September 19-20, the Fed signaled another increase in rates this year. It is expected that in 2018, the Fed will raise 3 or 4 times.
    As Janet Yellen previously stated, the rate hike speaks of the strength of the American economy. It is unlikely that a gradual increase in rates will cause a reversal of the bullish stock market. On the contrary, the banking sector of the economy will benefit from this.
    Today, investors will focus on the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed (minutes FOMC). Investors will carefully study the text to understand the outlook for the current Fed policy and the increasing of the interest rate in the US. Volatility during the publication of the protocol can significantly increase, especially against the backdrop of low trading volumes on the eve of the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the US on Thursday.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 2594.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
    Resistance levels: 2598.0, 2600.0, 2650.0, 2700.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 2592.0. Stop-Loss 2600.0. Objectives 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
    Buy Stop 2600.0 Stop-Loss 2592.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2700.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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