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Thread: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

  1. #221

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    AUD/USD: The strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar
    16/02/2018
    Current dynamics

    During his speech today before the parliament, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Philip Lowey said that he "would prefer a lower exchange rate". In his opinion, "there is no reason to raise rates in the short term". Lowey noted that "inflation remains low", although "business sentiment is improving".
    Approximately the same statements Lowey did before. Therefore, his today's speech did not bring surprises.
    The Australian dollar reacted with restraint to Lowey's speech. Nevertheless, the Australian dollar is rising against the US dollar, justifying Lowey's view that "the strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar".
    And, indeed, the US dollar remains under pressure, continuing to decline against its major counterparts. The dynamics of the dollar is not affected even by the macro statistics coming from the US, indicating an increase in inflation. So, on Thursday there were one more data, indicating the growth of inflationary pressure.
    The producer price index (PPI), reflecting changes in prices for goods and services of American companies, in January rose by 0.4%, which is the best result since April 2017.
    The consumer price index (CPI) released on Wednesday also surpassed expectations. The growth of consumer inflation in January was 2.1% (in annual terms). The CPI base index increased by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2017. According to economists, inflation will be above the target level of 2% this year already.
    The growth of inflation against the backdrop of a strong labor market and a stable state of the US economy gives the Fed a reason to tighten monetary policy more rapidly. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. Now many investors believe that the Fed can implement a 4-time rate increase this year. So, according to the CME Group, investors estimate a 21% chance of 4 rate increases this year. Earlier this week, such a probability was estimated at 17%.
    Nevertheless, the US dollar continues to scale down. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, fell on Friday to 88.18, the lowest level since December 2014, and at the beginning of the European session is near the mark of 88.35.
    Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of data on the housing market in the US for January, which may increase volatility in the US dollar. However, this statistic will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the US dollar.
    The US dollar remains under pressure due to profound fundamental changes in the global financial market. Investors seem to opt for more interesting and growing financial markets outside of the US, which forces them to buy assets and the national currency of countries with a fast-growing economy, in particular the Eurozone and Japan.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 0.7950, 0.7900, 0.7820, 0.7795, 0.7760, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330
    Resistance levels: 0.7990, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.7940. Stop-Loss 0.8000. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7820, 0.7795, 0.7760
    Buy Stop 0.8000. Stop-Loss 0.7940. Take-Profit 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #222

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    XAU/USD: gold prospects are positive
    19/02/2018
    Current dynamics

    After on Friday the price of gold updated the monthly maximum, having risen to the mark of 1361.00 dollars per troy ounce, then the price went to the corrective phase. The XAU / USD declined, retreating to the mark near the support level of 1348.00 (the opening price of the month). Last month, the price of gold reached the next local multi-month high near the mark of 1365.00 dollars per ounce. The last time near this mark the price was in July 2016.
    Nevertheless, with regard to the further dynamics of the price of gold, there are two opposing opinions of experts. The first view is that, amid rising inflation, the Fed will begin to raise interest rates at a faster rate, which will increase the interest to the dollar purchases. Gold does not bring investment income and is used, mainly, as a hedging instrument for risks during the period of economic or political instability in the world. In periods of increasing interest rates, gold, as a rule, becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds. Due to the growth of inflation expectations, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds returned to almost 3%.
    In this sense, the publication on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed, the latter under the leadership of Janet Yellen, will be of interest to investors this week. The minutes of the meeting may give market participants an idea that the Fed's management is thinking about the possible economic consequences of reforming the tax system and about accelerating inflation in the US.
    The contrary opinion of experts is that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation.
    Thus, the probability of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. Taking into account the multi-month cycles, the long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the levels of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce.
    In view of the fact that the US has a day off ("President's Day"), and American banks and exchanges are closed, the sluggish dynamics of trading on financial markets is expected until the end of the trading day.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1340.00, 1328.00, 1308.00, 1289.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
    Resistance levels: 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1343.00. Stop-loss 1358.00. Take-Profit 1340.00, 1328.00
    Buy Stop 1358.00. Stop-Loss 1343.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #223

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    NZD/USD: Fundamental factors are on the side of US dollar sellers
    20/02/2018
    Current dynamics

    The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market after it reached new lows last week. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, is growing for the third consecutive day. At the beginning of the European session, the futures on the DXY index traded with an increase near the mark of 89.50.
    The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the growth of the yield of US Treasury bonds, which is close to the highs observed last week. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.92% on the eve of the first trading day in the US this week. On Monday, US markets were closed due to the day off (President's Day).
    Meanwhile, the attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains negative. Economists and financial companies lowered forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018. Significant growth of the country's budget deficit, coupled with the growth of the foreign trade deficit to $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008, leads to a further decrease in investors' interest in the dollar.
    The new US tax law, which provides for a significant reduction in taxes and an increase in budget spending, will only contribute to the growth of the federal budget deficit.
    Despite the positive macro statistics coming from the US, deep fundamental factors are on the side of dollar sellers.
    Meanwhile, the dollar receives short-term support on the eve of the publication on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System.
    Probably, investors will wait for new signals from the leadership of the Fed regarding further interest rate increases in the US. As you know, the Fed planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 more increases in 2019.
    From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of +5.9% (against previous values of +4.9%, +2.2% and +0.4%). If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.
    Nevertheless, this time the reaction of market participants to this publication will likely be restrained due to the continued celebration of the New Year in China, which is New Zealand's largest partner and buyer of dairy products from this country.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 0.7340, 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
    Resistance levels: 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080
    Buy Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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