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  1. #261

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    GBP/USD: pound declined despite rising wages
    17/04/2018
    Current dynamics

    Despite the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) at the beginning of the European session indicating that the British labor market is in good shape, the pound declined after the publication of the data. Earlier, the GBP / USD reached its highest level in 22 months at 1.4375.
    The average hourly earnings of Britons (without premiums) for the period December-February increased by 2.8%, which means that real wages increased by 0.1%. This was the fastest growth rate of wages since 2015. Unemployment fell to 4.2% against 4.3% for the period November-January, the lowest level since 1975. The data indicate that the UK labor market remains healthy.
    Probably, the presented data will strengthen expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 0.75% at its May meeting (May 10). Earlier, the Bank of England signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times to contain inflation.
    Despite the current growth, the pound is undervalued, which implies its further possible growth.
    In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound.
    Nevertheless, there are still a lot of uncertainties in the issue of leaving the UK from the EU, and the Teresa May government is weak, and the Bank of England against this background may postpone the issue of tightening monetary policy.
    Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data for the US at 12:30 (GMT), and between 13:15 and 17:10, several members of the FOMC (Williams, Quorles, Harker, Evans) are scheduled to perform. If they touch upon the subject of the monetary policy of the Fed and speak in favor of faster rates of tightening of the policy of the American central bank, the dollar may strengthen for a short time, including in the GBP / USD. The tougher the rhetoric of their speeches, the stronger the dollar will be strengthened.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.4302, 1.4263, 1.4205, 1.4100, 1.4075, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600
    Resistance levels: 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Limit 1.4305, 1.4265. Stop-Loss 1.4225. Take-Profit 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
    Buy Stop 1.1.4350. Stop-Loss 1.4285. Take-Profit 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #262

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    Brent: price growth has resumed
    18/04/2018
    Current dynamics

    According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, oil reserves in the US fell by 1 million barrels in the week of April 7 - 13, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels and 0.854 million barrels, respectively.
    Against the background of forecasts of the stocks falling in the US, oil prices rose on Wednesday. Futures for Brent crude at ICE recently rose in price by 0.68%, to 72.00 dollars per barrel. Futures for oil WTI on NYMEX added 0,83%, to 67.00 dollars per barrel.
    On Wednesday (14:30 GMT), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish an official report on reserves. Economists expect the fall in oil and oil products stocks in the week of April 7 - April by 1.429 million barrels against the growth of 3.306 million barrels the previous week.
    In anticipation of a positive outlook for oil reserves and after the API report, the spot price for Brent crude rose at the beginning of the European session to $ 72.00 per barrel. In the oil market there is again an increased interest of investors in purchases.
    At the end of last week, oil prices reached the highest level in more than three years. At the weekend, a coalition led by the United States struck a missile strike on Syria, which increased geopolitical risks, as well as the risks of possible interruptions in the supply of oil from the Asian region.
    Coupled with the likelihood of the US imposing sanctions against Iran, such a situation could lead to a crisis in the supply of oil. Iran is the largest supplier of oil, possessing about 10% of all the world's proven oil reserves. And if sanctions are imposed on Iran again, the country will not be able to supply oil to the world market, which inevitably entails a decrease in the world supply of oil and, consequently, a rise in prices for it.
    As you know, OPEC and 10 other oil-producing countries, including Russia, have reduced total production by 1.8 million barrels a day since the beginning of last year. The term of the agreement, aimed at limiting the excess of the world supply, expires at the end of 2018.
    On Friday in Saudi Arabia, OPEC ministers will discuss the possibility of maintaining oil production restrictions next year.
    Last month, the media reported that OPEC intends next year to continue joint efforts to reduce the supply of oil.
    If the parties to the production cut-off agreement decide to extend the agreement for the next year under this agreement, even the growing oil production in the US will not be able to influence the prospect of further price increases. According to Baker Hughes data, published last Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 7 units to 815 units. According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA),
    The United States increased oil production by 1.34 million barrels per day in comparison with last March, ranking second in the world in terms of oil production after Russia, outstripping Saudi Arabia.
    Geopolitical risks that can lead to supply disruptions, as well as OPEC's intention to extend the agreement on limiting oil production, increase the pressure on oil prices towards their further growth. Even despite the growth of oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand for it in this case.
    As the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the OPEC president at the time, said earlier, OPEC is now "more concerned about the supply shortage than its excess". Rally oil prices, it seems, is not going to end.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 70.75, 70.00, 68.50, 66.70, 66.00, 65.00, 63.00, 62.40, 60.00, 57.50
    Resistance levels: 72.00, 73.00, 73.50

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 70.70. Stop-Loss. Take-Profit, 70.00, 68.50, 66.70, 66.00, 65.00, 63.00
    Buy Stop 72.10. Stop-Loss 70.70. Take-Profit 73.00, 73.50, 75.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #263

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    USD/CAD: The rate remained at the same level, however ...
    19/04/2018
    Current dynamics

    The Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% on Wednesday. In the accompanying statement, the central bank expressed its concern over international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations, pointing to the problems of the export sector and the housing market.
    "Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, the question of likely investors switching to US assets", the central bank said.
    The decision to keep the key rate at the previous level was widely expected. Many of the economists pointed to the uncertainty surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as the main reason for this outcome of the next meeting of the central bank.
    According to a statement issued on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will remain cautious and will focus on incoming economic data. Despite the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep the rate at the same level, many economists believe that the statement of the Bank of Canada was "balanced".
    Despite the decline, after the decision of the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar gets support from rising oil prices. The bulk of Canadian exports accounted for the share of oil and petroleum products. As the world's largest exporter of oil, petroleum products and liquefied gas, the Canadian economy is receiving tangible benefits from rising oil prices.
    Apparently, the pair USD / CAD decline will resume if the oil market still has a bullish trend, and in the negotiating process for NAFTA there will be tangible progress. The Bank of Canada also said on Wednesday that "raising interest rates will be justified with time", however, there are no more precise terms.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
    Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2660, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  4. #264

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    GBP/USD: pound declined despite rising wages
    20/04/2018

    Current dynamics

    The Bank of England signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times to contain the growth of inflation.
    Earlier in the week, strong macro statistics came out. So, the unemployment rate in the UK in December 2017 - February 2018 fell to 4.2% against 4.3% for the period November-January. The last time unemployment fell to 4.2% in 1975, the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) noted. The reduction in unemployment has provoked employment growth. Salaries (without premiums) for the reported three-month period increased by 2.8% against the backdrop of an increase in salaries in construction and production. This was the fastest growth rate of wages since 2015.
    Economists believed that the next rate hike - up to 0.75% - could happen in May. However, the comments of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, given to them earlier in the week, have diminished the expectations of investors for raising rates, which many expected already next month.
    He noted that economic data indicate a weak beginning of the year and markets should not expect a rate hike in May. There is also uncertainty about the future relationship between the UK and the EU. According to Thomson Reuters, the probability of a rate hike in May has now fallen below 50%.
    On the comments of Carney, the pound fell sharply. With the opening of today's trading day, the GBP / USD pair continued to decline, however, the comments of central bank representative Michael Saunders, which he gave at 09:30 (GMT), supported the pound.
    During his speech in Scotland, he said that the inflationary pressures in the economy are increasing because of the almost complete disappearance of free labor.
    Saunders believes that Britain does not need such a soft monetary policy. "It's time to stop pushing the gas pedal so hard", says the text of the speech he made in Glasgow.
    In March, Saunders was one of two committee members who voted to raise the key rate to 0.75% from the current 0.50%.
    In turn, the dollar continues to advance in the foreign exchange market, including against the backdrop of rising yields on US government bonds. Thus, the yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.915% from the level of 2.914%, recorded on Thursday.
    According to economists, bond yields increase due to rising inflation expectations caused by strong strengthening of commodity prices and a reduction in geopolitical risks at the moment.
    The ICE dollar index has grown again today, and, for 4 consecutive days to 90.00, having reached the maximum since April 9.
    The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and member of the FOMC Loretta Mester said on Thursday evening that consistent increases in interest rates are necessary in order to maintain economic recovery and avoid its overheating. According to Mester, holding interest rates at too low levels is the wrong way.
    Thus, the FRS at the moment remains, perhaps, the single largest world central bank, implementing a gradual tightening of monetary policy. And this is the most important fundamental factor in favor of the growth of the dollar at the moment.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.4030, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600
    Resistance levels: 1.4075, 1.4090, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 1.4110. Stop-Loss 1.4020. Take-Profit 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
    Sell Stop 1.4020. Stop-Loss 1.4110. Take-Profit 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  5. #265

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    XAU/USD: the price of gold is declining
    23/04/2018
    Current dynamics

    With the opening of today's trading day, the price of gold continued to decline, and already 3 days in a row. The decrease in gold quotes occurs against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar, as well as the growth of yield on US government bonds, which reached 2.998% at the beginning of the European session of Monday.
    Earlier, gold prices received support from political uncertainty, including the threat of escalation of the conflict in Syria, as well as prospects for trade wars between China and the United States.
    Gold prices were also supported by the continuing threat of new nuclear tests and missile launches by North Korea.
    Last weekend it became known that North Korea is stopping nuclear and missile tests, and also closes the nuclear test site. Earlier in the media, information appeared that North Korean leader Kim Jong-ying was allegedly ready to go to curtail the nuclear strategic program in the country in exchange for US security guarantees against North Korea and its leadership.
    Reducing tension in this region of the world also contributes to the fall in the value of assets-shelters, including gold. Strengthening the dollar makes gold also more expensive for holders of other currencies. The monetary policy of the Fed, aimed at tightening, also contributes to the reduction of the value of gold. Metal does not bring interest yields, so it becomes less attractive during the period of interest rate growth. The gradual increase in inflation in the US will contribute to a more bold approach by the Fed to the issue of accelerated interest rate increases in the US.
    Nevertheless, despite the current strengthening of the dollar, investors are still wary of the larger purchases of the dollar. This is facilitated by the expected increase in budget expenditures, leading to an acceleration of inflation and an increase in the federal budget deficit, as well as a growing deficit in the US foreign trade balance, coupled with a trade conflict with China, whose economy is the second largest after the US.
    Half of the Fed leaders still adhere to a more cautious approach to the issue of the pace of tightening monetary policy. So, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Kaplan said recently that the aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, low productivity growth rates, and high public debt could become constraints to GDP growth in the next few years. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added.
    Despite the decline in quotations, the demand for gold is likely to continue in the short term. Therefore, long-term investors are likely at the moment given the opportunity to increase long positions on gold. A favorable zone for gold purchases will be the range between the levels of 1331.00, 1305.00.
    The geopolitical risks associated with the prospect of the start of new trade wars will "keep in shape" the buyers of gold , and the demand for gold will continue.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1320.00, 1314.00, 1305.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
    Resistance levels: 1331.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00

    Trade Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1333.00. Take-Profit 1320.00, 1314.00, 1305.00
    Buy Stop 1336.00. Stop-Loss 1329.00. Take-Profit 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  6. #266

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    S&P500: In general, the long-term bullish trend remains in force
    24/04/2018
    Current dynamics

    Trades in world stock markets today mostly go with growth after signs of stabilization of yields of US government bonds have appeared. On Monday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 2.998%, closely approaching the psychological level of 3%. The world stock markets were yesterday, probably on the verge of a new collapse. Investors fear that if the yield of 10-year government bonds exceeds 3% this week, then a new wave of sales may begin on the US stock market, which will provoke a fall on other world stock exchanges.
    StoxxEurope600 in the morning trading rose by 0.3%, following the markets of Japan and Hong Kong, where there was a sharp increase.
    A number of companies in Asia and Europe, included in the indices, reported profits in the first quarter. Basically, these are technology companies. But there are a number of companies in the oil and gas sector, whose profits have grown against the backdrop of the continuing rise in oil prices.
    The barrel of Brent oil rose 0.4% to 74.98 dollars after reaching a maximum since November 2014, and oil and gas companies also entered the number of leaders in Europe.
    Today, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 2.959% from the level of 2.998%, recorded on Monday.
    It is likely that US stock markets will start trading in the US with an increase. At least, futures for the major US stock indexes are rising since the opening of the trading day on Tuesday. Futures indicates that the S&P500 will start the US trading session with an increase of 0.5%.
    Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions, although asleep, may again intensify. The situation on the US Treasury bonds market has stabilized slightly, however, the yield of 10-year bonds is close to multi-month highs, closely approaching 3%.
    The darkest scenario has not yet been realized, which allowed the risky assets to recover slightly.
    However, sales may once again intensify as soon as the geopolitical situation deteriorates again, and the reports of US companies may not be so positive.
    Investors are not yet ready for active purchases of high-yield, but also risky, assets of the stock markets. Although, in general, the long-term bullish trend, while the S&P500 is trading above the support level of 2614.0 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), remains in force.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 2680.0, 2650.0, 2630.0, 2614.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
    Resistance levels: 2700.0, 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 2670.0. Stop-Loss 2698.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2630.0, 2614.0, 2590.0
    Buy Stop 2698.0. Stop-Loss 2670.0. Objectives 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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