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  1. #281

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    USD/CAD: oil price growth supports CAD
    18/05/2018

    Current dynamics

    Uncertainty over the NAFTA negotiations puts pressure on Canada's investments and exports, said earlier in the week, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Lawrence Schembri.
    "Economic capacities are almost fully loaded, inflation is close to the target level of 2%, and yet rates remain below the neutral level, in part because we have to hedge ourselves because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations", added Lawrence Shembry.
    As you know, in April the Bank of Canada left the rate at the same level of 1.25%. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.
    "Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules", said in the central bank.
    Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices.
    So, Brent oil prices exceeded the $ 80 mark per barrel on Thursday, although they fell to 79.30 by the end of the trading day. The US decision to resume economic sanctions against Iran continued to support the rally in oil prices, which reached new highs since November 2014.
    If the bull market continues to be in the oil market, then the probability of strengthening the Canadian dollar will increase.
    At 12:30 (GMT), publication of data on retail sales and consumer inflation in Canada is planned. Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.3% in March, after rising by 0.4% in February. The level of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence, which reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of this indicator is a bullish factor for CAD.
    The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of prices relative to the retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services. The target inflation rate for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% -3%. The growth of CPI is a positive factor for CAD. Forecast: consumer prices rose in Canada by 0.4% in April (against +0.3% in March). The base CPI rose in April, expected to be +1.4% (in annual terms). Thus, the CPI indicators are still weak, so that the Bank of Canada could return to the issue of raising the interest rate.
    If the data are better than forecasts, then against the backdrop of rising oil prices, as well as against the fixation of profit in long positions on the US dollar at the end of the trading week, CAD can significantly strengthen against the USD.
    In any case, a surge in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected during the publication of this macro statistics.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.2805, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
    Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260
    Buy Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  2. #282

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    S&P500: US and China agree on trade armistice
    21/05/2018

    Current dynamics

    Markets positively perceived the information that the US and China agreed on a trade truce. At last weekend's talks, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of goods manufactured in the US to reduce the US trade deficit with China, which is $ 375 billion now.
    The Trump administration tried to force China to agree to reduce the trade imbalance by $ 200 billion.
    Nevertheless, Beijing has refused to determine the exact amount of purchases in dollar terms, and now everything depends on the talks between the two presidents, Trump and Xi Jinping.
    On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said that the administration of US President Donald Trump intends to "put the trade war on a pause" and postpone the introduction of duties on the import of goods from China, until the two sides discuss the details of the agreement to reduce the trade deficit.
    The successful season of reporting US companies for the first quarter also contributed to the growth of US stock indices in recent days.
    At the same time, long-term estimates of inflation in the US are still restrained, despite improvements in indicators. In this regard, investors are interested in how actively the Fed will react to one-time price increases.
    As you know, at the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. In 2017, the rates were also raised 3 times. This temp of tightening of monetary policy is already taken into account in quotes.
    According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases at 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes.
    Now investors will carefully monitor the release of the minutes of the Fed's May meeting (on Wednesday 18:00 GMT), which may shed light on how quickly rates will be raised in response to increased inflation.
    On Friday (13:20 GMT) the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will act. If he signals a high probability of 4 rate increases this year, then US stock indices may fall again. As a rule, raising rates leads to the strengthening of the national currency and to a decrease in the attractiveness of the assets of the stock market.
    Meanwhile, the bullish trend of the US stock market remains.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 2712.0, 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0, 2530.0
    Resistance levels: 2741.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 2700.0. Stop-Loss 2742.0. Objectives 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0
    Buy Stop 2742.0. Stop-Loss 2700.0. Objectives 2760.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

  3. #283

    Default

    GBP/USD: negative dynamics prevails
    22/05/2018

    Current dynamics

    As the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, stated today, "the signs of the restoration of momentum can be manifested in the next few months". "If the momentum recovers, then, according to our guidelines, certain actions will follow logically", added Carney. In the meantime, Mark Carney suggests waiting for "recovery of momentum before raising the stakes".
    Another representative of the Bank of England Vlige spoke in the same vein, saying that "we can wait for a few more months without special expenses before raising rates".
    As you know, earlier in the month the Bank of England retained the key interest rate at 0.50%. In the face of continuing uncertainties regarding Brexit, as well as against the backdrop of the absence of "signs of recovery of momentum", the Bank of England preferred not to change the current conditions of monetary policy. Although the collapse of the British economy after the referendum on Brexit in the summer of 2016 did not happen, the collapse of the pound and the subsequent rapid growth of inflation significantly worsened the level of welfare of the British. The fall in the level of retail sales and domestic demand had a negative impact on the UK economy, focused primarily on the domestic market.
    The tightening of the monetary policy of the central bank would have a stimulating effect on the growth of consumer spending, especially with regard to imported goods.
    However, the increase in the interest rate makes higher interest rates on loans for commercial banks and for the population, including mortgage loans. A higher exchange rate of the national currency also reduces the competitiveness of export products abroad, which negatively affects the country's exporters. The deficit of the UK trade balance exceeds 3 billion pounds and has a tendency to increase. The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%.
    On Wednesday (08:30 GMT) data on consumer inflation in the UK will be published. As expected, the consumer price index (CPI) will indicate that the growth rate of annual inflation in April did not change (2.5% against 2.5% in March).
    If the data does indicate an acceleration of inflation, the Bank of England will be forced to tighten monetary policy. Some economists expect that the Bank of England can still go on raising rates in August or November, which will cause the strengthening of the pound.
    Meanwhile, representatives of the Federal Reserve regularly give signals about the commitment of the US central bank to a plan to further tighten monetary policy.
    So, on Tuesday, a member of the Committee on open market operations, the FRS Patrick Harker said that he will support three more increases in the key rate this year. It is characteristic that even last month Harker was among those who spoke of "two more rises".
    According to another member of the FOMC, Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue tightening monetary policy to avoid increasing risks to macroeconomic stability".
    Thus, the Bank of England's predilection for a softer monetary policy amid the Federal Reserve's intention to gradually raise the interest rate makes the pound vulnerable to the dollar and leads to a further decline in the GBP / USD.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support levels: 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3300, 1.3210
    Resistance levels: 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3720, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3300, 1.3210



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
    Last edited by TifiaFX; Today at 10:51.

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