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Thread: Forex Technical Analysis By Forex4you

  1. #11

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 19/10/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Assumptions that the “bears» would reach support level 1.3780/50 didn’t realize, because level 1.3830 didn’t let the pair pass further. As a result of an upward pullback the trading went to level 1.4000 and has recently descended a bit to 1.3930/40. Indicators’ readings are rather unclear, but seems like they are more likely to show further downward movement. The bearish attempt to fix below the breached uptrend channel line (blue line) gives more evidence to the assumption of a price fall. Nevertheless, the situation should be considered unclear for now, so now action should be taken. There’s still a chance that there will be attempts to return to the uptrend channel. The fall below 1.3830 will indicate further descending to 1.3780 and then levels 1.3660, 1.3610. If the price grows above 1.4040, this scenario will be cancelled. We’ll get the final confirmation when resistance 1.4080 is breached.




    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    The exchange rate has rolled over from the 15th October highs and fallen initially to support at 1.5840 before correcting a little and then falling further to the current lows in the 1.5790s. The move down is strong and looks like it will continue. If it is a zig-zag then the second leg will probably equal the first, yielding a target of 1.5644. This is also close to the monthly pivot at 1.5650 and the point where price might meet the trend-line of the whole move up from the June lows at around the 1.5650s. This should provide an important support shelf if price gets down that far. For a nearer term objective, however, use the line of old lows at 1.5725.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  2. #12

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 20/10/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The price fell below 1.3830, indicating a reversal to a downtrend, like it had been anticipated earlier, tested and then breached support 1.3780, and then met a barrier for its descending at level 1.3690, which is above the previously mentioned support at level 1.3660. Indicators show the weakening of the “bearish” moods, which gives reasons to doubt the assumptions of further downward movement. The currently tested resistance is rather significant – if the “bulls” breach range 1.3830/50 and fix above, we’ll be expecting a change of the trend in the pair. A reversal to a downtrend with targets 1.3660 and 1.3610 is, nevertheless, seen more of a possibility. If the price climbs above 1.4040 and breaks resistance 1.4080, the bearish scenario will be cancelled.




    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    Strong support at level 1.5780, mentioned in the previous comment, has been breached, so the price is already testing level 1.5665, mentioned yesterday as the closest target. Indicators keep showing a downward movement, which mean a high possibility for a further descend. Seems like now we can set the target at lower supports – levels 1.5600/1.5590 and then 1.5560/50. At the same time there is also a chance that strong support 1.5665 can hold back the “bears” for quite a long period of time and even trigger a pullback upwards to 1.5780/70. Growth above 1.6040/50 will indicate the alternative scenario, when a downward pullback is over and a medium-term bullish trend recommences.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    The pair has bounced from the 111.55 lows achieved last night. The bounce could go higher, reaching the upper channel and trend-line of the move down at approximately 112.60. This target also coincides neatly with the point at which the first leg off the lows would equal the second leg. Currently on the 1 minute chart there is an extended sideways rectangular consolidation with ceiling at 112.28 and floor at 112.14. Depending on the direction of the breakout from that the pair will either achieve the earlier upside target or fall back down to support at 111.80.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  3. #13

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 21/10/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Assumptions of the previous comment came true – resistance range 1.3830/50 was breached and the price fixed above, indicating a high possibility for reversal to growth in the pair. The price is currently testing resistance level 1.4040, mentioned earlier as one of the key levels on the way up. And the readings of indicators support these assumptions. Nevertheless, there is one more barrier on the way upwards – breached uptrend channel line (blue lines) which is now seen at level 1.4090/1.4100 is a very strong resistance, which has already proved its strength last week. If this resistance is breached, we’ll be expecting new maximums to be tested in this instrument. If not, we’ll be observing a commonplace testing for resistance of a breached uptrend channel line, which had recently been a strong support. Such scenario is usually a good sign for a sell off, because a large-scale fall is a high possibility.




    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    Fears that strong support at level 1.5665 would trigger a pullback upwards were correct. The price rose to 1.5880/70, which was higher than the expected yesterday level 1.5780. Though having tested level 1.5880, which matched with the breached uptrend channel line (blue lines), the trading began its reversal downwards and is currently carried on at 1.5740/30. Indicators also turned downwards which gives reasons to expect the “bearish” trend to recommence. To give more evidence for this assumption, the price should first test a new local minimum and fall below 1.5665. At the same time there is a strong support at level 1.5750/40 and it has all chances to bring the trading back upwards. So the situation is rather unclear for now, so it would be a good idea not to trade in this instrument for some period of time and see what happens next.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  4. #14

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 22/10/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Resistance level 1.4040 turned out to be strong enough and didn’t let the price rise. After a pullback downwards the trading is currently carried on at level 1.3880/70. Indicators are turned downwards, which can be the evidence of a reversal to a downtrend. At the same time the “bears” are now likely to meet serious barriers on the way, which makes the situation in this pair rather unclear. Range trading in a wide price range between levels 1.4040 and 1.3780/70 is a possibility. The breakout of one of these barriers will indicate further direction for the nearest future.



    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    The price continued to descend in this pair and the trading went back to support 1.5665, ?? wherefrom the price had previously pulled back upwards to level 1.5880. In the last comment we’ve mentioned that in order to expect a reversal to a downtrend we should first wait till the price tests a new local minimum, thus raises above level 1.5665, and now this scenario is very likely to be realized. Support level 1.5665/50 breakout will open the way to level 1.5600, and then 1.5520/10/00. But before the price falls below1.5660/50 there is still a high possibility for the reversal to the uptrend if the price raises above 1.5780/90. Uptrend channel line breakout (blue lines), which is currently a resistance level will be the last sign for that.



    USD/CHF: Technical Analysis

    This pair bottomed, reaching all-time-lows on the 14th and has been steadily rising since then. I see a continuation of this trend upwards. There was a very swift climb this morning which is currently being corrected by a sideways move. It is likely that this sideways move will finish soon and then a second leg will rise completing a three wave pattern, and taking the exchange rate to perhaps 0.9800 initially, and then even higher to perhaps 0.9830.



    AUD/USD: Technical Analysis

    Level 0.9760 /40 couldn’t stop the growth in the pair and only level 0.9880/0.9900 managed to become a strong resistance. The price pulled back downwards, so the trading is currently carried on in a narrow range 0.9880 – 0.9760. Indicators are still turned downwards, which suggests a new price fall. Support 0.9750/60 breakout will indicate dominating “bearish” moods in the market and the uptrend channel line breakout (red lines) will be a serious sign of the reversal in the pair. Support 0.9540/30 breakout will be the final signal to the reversal. At the same time if the price raises above 0.9900 we’ll be expecting level 0.9990 test with a high possibility to see new maximums in this pair.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  5. #15

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 25/10/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The move up which began on the 20th has probably reached an end and this morning’s correction could continue a little lower. It is quite possible it will reach support at 1.4000 at the least. There is even a chance it will continue going down even lower, reaching the 1.37 lows if it is still a part of the consolidation which began on the 10th and has lead to a more or less sideways market since. If, on the other hand, the rally which began on the 20th is part of a larger move up then the exchange rate will probably turn on the 1.4000 lows and resume the march higher.




    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    The price is trapped between the two strong levels, mentioned in the previous comment - levels 1.5780 and 1.5665. The first doesn’t let the price grow, the second prevents it from further descending. Indicators are unclear –MACD divergence suggests growth on the one hand, SS and R% downward direction indicate possible descending on the other. So the situation is vague, and it now depends on the price itself - support level 1.5665/50 breakout opens the way to levels 1.5600 and 1.5520/10/00. Growth above 1.5780/90 together with the price fixation, suggests levels 1 .5920 and 1.6000 to be the next.



    USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

    Attempt to breach the channel trend line downwards (green lines) and fix above failed. The price continued to descend and is currently testing support level 80.50. Expectations of a possible stop at level 80.70 failed and the market obviously confirms the assumptions of the previous comment that a new historic minimum at 79.75 is likely to be tested very soon. Indicators say in favor of this event, though MACD divergence suggests the upcoming completion of a downtrend. So, we should be aware of a sudden pullback upwards right after level 79.70/50 is tested. It’s also worth paying attention to support 80.10/80.00, wherefrom a quick bounce upwards is also a possibility.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  6. #16

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 26/10/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The exchange rate is still moving down as part of the move which began at yesterday’s highs. It is currently trying to break through the trend-line drawn up from the lows made on the 20th. A decisive break lower would be expected to reach support at 1.3900 and then perhaps even to 1.3850. A move higher might be expected to reach the upper channel line at 1.4000.

    Looking at the 4 hour chart it is possible to draw a diamond top pattern on the activity since the 7th October. The downside objective if the current move down makes a decisive break would be 1.3235. A move above the trend-line sloping down off the peaks at around 1.4065 however would negate the diamond reversal and might lead to a strong upside rally instead.




    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    The exchange rate is rallying up very strongly from the 1.5650 lows. It will probably continue until it reaches resistance at the 1.5950 highs from an old trend-line up from the September lows. It may even peak at the level of the R1 monthly pivot at 1.5990.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  7. #17

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 28/10/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The pair continued its downward movement, support 1.3780 was breached, but further descending ended just with level 1.3730/40. The "bulls" brought the price back above level 1.3780, so the trading is currently carried on at level 1.3830/40. Indicators show attempts to take the price back to the uptrend on a mid-term level. Level 1.3900/10 is likely to be tested in the nearest future. If this barrier is breached, we'll be expecting the price to test level 1.4000/40 for its strength. Yet, until it happened, we should probabgly consider one more scenario, which is a reversal downwards and a possible fall to level 1.3660and then to 1.3610/00.



    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    The exchange rate has rallied up to trend-line resistance drawn from the 15th October highs. If it decisively breaks through this then it will probably reach the 1.5900 highs and then perhaps 1.6000 after that. If it fails and pushes back down then it might be expected to find support at 1.5755 initially. Like EUR/USD there might be a diamond top on the 4-hour chart - beginning on the 27th of September and peaking on the 15th October, but this one is less text book in form. A decisive break down through the bottom of the diamond at the aforementioned support lows of 1.5755 would constitute a downside breakout with an eventual objective of 1.5230.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  8. #18

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 29/10/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The growth got stuck within the range 1.3940/30/50 on the last session, breached uptrend channel line (blue dashed line) turned out to be a very strong, this time as a resistance. The trading is currently carried on at level 1.3820/30. Indicators are turned downwards, which suggests further downward movement of the price. Strong support at level 1.3780 is the next to come, if this barrier is breached, support levels 1.3660 and 1.3610/00 tests are likely to take place. Though it's worth noting, that such risks already exist, even now, when the trading is carried on around level 1.3800/10.




    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    Seems like the assumptions of the previous comment are correct – resistance 1.5950/70 stopped the growth and the price started to fall - it currently resides at 1.5890/80. Indicators are turned downwards, which makes yesterday's scenario even a higher possibility, which means that support 1.5665/50 is going to be tested in the nearest future. Nevertheless, there are serious barriers on the way downwards – the first is at level 1.5860/50, and the next, the key one, is at 1.5780.The alternative scenario is the same - resistance 1.5970/50 breakout will be a signal to level 1.6030/40 test and a possible growth to 1.6100.



    USD/CHF: Technical Analysis

    The current sharp rally up from 15th which gained renewed strength from a push higher this morning is close to heavy resistance from the monthly pivot and the 50 day MA. I see the exchange rate probably dropping slightly to support at 0.9870 before making another rally higher to the pivot at 0.9935 before rolling over again.



    EUR/GBP: technical analysis

    This pair has reversed at the 0.8900 highs and been falling for the last few days. It appears to have completed a complete Elliot wave impulse down, corrected and then began falling again today. It is probable that it will continue to drop completing the second leg of the pattern. Looking at the daily chart the fall from 0.8900 could be a Elliot wave 4 of a larger impulse pattern which began on 29th June. If it is then it is likely to correct between 30% and 50% of previous move. This gives a target starting from about where the exchange rate is situated now to 0.8502. Within that zone the 200 day MA is situated at 0.8570 and this would be a natural point for the fall to end.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  9. #19

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 01/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Support at level 1.3800/1.3780 stopped the price fall and brought the trading back to the breached uptrend channel line (blue dashed line). The price tested levels 1.4000/10, but it didn't manage to break this barrier, so it's currently pulling back and resides at 1.3950/60. Indicators show a reversal downwards, which suggests further descend in the price. Support 1.3940/20 breakout is seen rather significant at the moment, because if it takes place, the price will have all chances to descend further to 1.3780/70 or even a bit lower, to 1.3730. If the support is not breached, it'll be a signal that the uptrend is a possibility with new maximums tests in the nearest future.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  10. #20

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 02/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Support 1.3940/20 was breached, but the price only descended to level 1.3860, which became a starting point for the growth reversal. The trading is currently carried on at level 1.3980, thus returning to yesterday's maximums. Indicators are "bullish" again, suggesting further possible growth. At the same time there is a strong resistance at level 1.4000/10 on the way, which has all chances to bring the price back downwards. In case this barrier is breached, level 1.4040/50 will be the next to be tested, growth to higher levels is not likely in the nearest future. Reversal downwards and a all below 1.3940/20 suggests level 1.3860 testing.




    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    GBP/USD is falling rapidly after having completed a zig-zag at the 1.60 highs. Such is the force of the initial thrust of the move it could even reach the 1.57 lows in time although a more modest target might be support and the monthly pivot at around 1.5920.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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