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Thread: Forex Technical Analysis By Forex4you

  1. #31

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 22/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The exchange rate moves higher as this Elliot wave 4 correction of the fall from November 5th continues unfolding. It rose up to the 1.3785s in the overnight session but since then has rolled over. It is possibly completing a zig-zag down now in which wave C may be equal to A - if not longer. If we count A as coming down from this morning’s highs to bottom at 1.3725, then C should end around 1.3687, which is exactly the same point as the open gap also at 1.3687. In this scenario the exchange rate could fall to fill the open gap with a target in the 1.3680s, after that, there is likely to be a rally back up to the 1.3785 highs if not slightly higher, again as the next wave up within 4 completes. There is also a chance the gap will not fill, however, and the rate will rally up sooner.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    This pair has gapped up to just under the trend-line linking the peaks at October 1st and November 4th. It appears to have rolled over into a correction down which is probably a 3 wave zigzag. We seem to have had 2 waves – A and B already with C still to follow. C may well reach down to 114.30 which is also the bottom of the open gap on the chart before pushing higher. The final objective could be slightly above the recent highs at 115.00.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  2. #32

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 23/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The market chose a downward scenario, like it had been previously assumed. Resistance range 1.3720/70 hadn't been breached, so the price pulled back downwards and fell below support 1.3640/50, mentioned earlier. The trading tested level 1.3520/30, but then went up and is currently carried on at level 1.3590/1.3600. Indicators are unsure which direction to show, though they seem to be more inclined to a downtrend, suggesting the "bearish" moods as dominating, which means that support 1.3380/90 is likely to be tested in the nearest future. Nevertheless, the outlook is vague, so range trading within 1.3650 – 1.3570/60 is also a possibility. Conditions for the alternative scenario - reversal to growth - are still the same - resistance 1.3960/70 breakout with the following fixation above. Until it happens, a reversal to the "bearish" trend seems to be most likely.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    The bullish-engulfing candlestick yesterday heralded a probable continuation lower, perhaps to the trend-line at 112.00. The monthly pivot at 113.10 is still stubbornly resisting further declines but it should give way eventually, however, a thrust higher might go as far as the trend-line at 113.80.

    Longer term there is mounting evidence for a more substantial bullish move. There is an inverted head & shoulders pattern at the August lows and a significant multi-year trend-line at about the same level as the neckline. The large impulse down from the ’08 highs has completed. A decisive break above the 115 mark would indicate a break-out which could rally up to 121.50 (the objective for the H&S). A break below 112.30 on the other hand would negate the likelihood of this happening and lead to a probable continuation of the trend down.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  3. #33

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 24/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The bears proved to be dominating, so the price declined not only to target level 1.3380/90, it went even lower, to 1.3280/90. We currently observe a slight pullback upwards and the trading is carried on at 1.3350/60. Nevertheless, the indicators don't seem to change their direction and reverse upwards, so the bearish trend will most likely continue. The current pullback upwards, by the way, may be considered as the beginning of a sideways correction in the range 1.3400 – 1.3280, since level 1.3280 had proved to be strong both as resistance and support. As for reversal to growth, ascending above 1.3490/1.3500 will probably make the bearish trend questionable, but not more than that. The bears presently have the leading positions in the market, so the price will most likely continue to decline, after the sideways correction is over.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    There is the possibility we are witnessing a bounce off the 110.30 lows with a possible upside target at the 111.45 level where there is a resistance line and the 50 day MA, although a possible pullback to 110.55 might occur before the rally really gets going. Further gains after that might target the 112.20 level where price will meet the trend-line from the September lows. More downside could reach the monthly pivot at 108.95.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  4. #34

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 25/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The exchange rate has bottomed and consolidated into a triangle pattern with downside potential. A break lower, out of the pattern, would target support at 1.3250 initially and then perhaps even the 1.30s. There is also a chance the triangle could break higher, wrong footing market participants who were short, with an upside target of 1.3435.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    This pair fell to support in the 110s before bouncing back up a band of resistance at 111.60. It is now pushing against the trend-line of the descent from the November 22 high. There is an inverted head and shoulders pattern at the lows which if it breaks higher could reach 112.75. Further downside, on the other hand, might be expected to go just beyond the recent lows, to perhaps 110.10.





    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  5. #35

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 26/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    EUR/USD has pushed down through an important trend-line drawn from the June lows. If the break is confirmed by a further decisive move then the exchange rate might fall to the 200 day MA at 1.3135 initially and then perhaps to 1.2930 eventually. There has also been a break below the cloud on the Ichimoku chart this morning and if the descent since the 5th November highs is a zigzag then the downside target for the C leg is also in the 1.29s. Given the substantial downside already today, however, there may be a pullback to around 1.3250 first before any further falls.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    Since bottoming a few days ago the euro-yen has made something of a drunkard’s walk across the chart: first veering up to the 111.90s first and then suddenly back down to the 110.90s where it is around about now. I think it will probably continue falling as the wave down from the highs made of the 22nd is missing a 5th wave, which could be unfolding right now. If it is of average length then it should slightly surpass the lows at 110.30 to perhaps bottom at 110.00 – although there is support at 110.50 too so it could end there.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  6. #36

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 29/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The exchange rate has fallen to the trend-line up from the June lows where it has found some temporary support. It now appears to be oscillating between trend-line support and a support and resistance line at 1.3310. If it breaks above this line it could go higher correcting the move down from the November 5th highs. It could reach up to 1.3370 initially where there is the S2 monthly pivot and then, if higher to 1.3435. A less probable although quite decisive break of the trend-line down however could target the S3 pivot at 1.3115 for support initially.



    USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

    The "bullish" attempts to fix the trading above resistance 83.50/60 ended sucessfully, so the price continued its growth, but only up to resistance 84.00/10, mentioned earlier. We currently observe attempts to breach this barrier on the way up and the trading is carried on around levels 84.00/05. Indicators begin to show a decline, which gives reasons to expect a longer consolidation on the current levels, and MACD divergence is a good proof that these assumptions are correct. There is a chance that the sideways range will stretch to support 83.60/50. Nevertheless, it's the "bullish" moods, that seem to be dominating in the market. If the currently tested barrier is breached, the price will grow further, to resistance 84.60/80. Reversal down and a fall below 83.60/50 will indicate a soon end of the "bullish trend".



    EUR/JPY: technical analysis

    The exchange rate appears to be consolidating in a triangle pattern. The D wave down is probably unfolding now with a slight possibility of some movement lower to perhaps the triangle border at 110.70 before completion and then an upswing in wave E back up to the triangle highs at 111.70. A more decisive break down earlier could take the exchange rate to between the minimum objective for the triangle at 109.50 and a tight support grouping at 109.00.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  7. #37

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 30/11/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Yesterday the EUR/USD decisively broke down through a major trend-line from the June lows. This marks a significant change in trend and the decline will probably continue lower, perhaps till it reaches a support and resistance line at 1.2940 initially and then probably further. The move down off the November 5 highs looks like a zigzag and if wave C is the same length as A - which it is likely to be at the least - then it will most probably continue falling till 1.2850 if not lower. Nevertheless there is a chance of a bounce off 1.3000 given the psychological importance of the level but it should be short-lived and eventually rollover and continue lower.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  8. #38

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 1/12/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The euro-dollar pair found a temporary bottom yesterday at 1.2960 and has been rising since then reaching back up to 1.3090. Given the weakness of the recent pullback I think the countertrend rally could extend further, possibly to the 200 Day MA at 1.3125 or to the underside of the trend-line up from June at 1.3275ish. After that, however, it will probably rollover and make new lows.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    This pair has put in a temporary bottom at 108.50 and since then has been rising. I see a pullback in the short term, perhaps to 109.35 and if the pullback is particularly strong then it could be the beginning of a resumption of the trend down, otherwise I think it will base and there will be a final rally higher to the 110s possibly even 110.80 and the monthly pivot. The move down from the November 5 highs looks like a zigzag in which Wave C may not have completed unfolding because it is currently shorter than the average. To reach average length it would have to decline to past 107.20 point (equality with A).



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  9. #39

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 2/12/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Assumptions about a possible correction in this instrument are likely to turn out correct - the price raised to level 1.3150/60, mentioned earlier as the consolidation range resistance and is currently making attempts to breach this resistance. Indicators suggest the "bullish" moods to be dominating in the market, which can be considered as a proof that further growth will be successful. In case the tested level is breached, the next to xome will be resistance 1.3190/1.3200, mentioned yesterday as a possible resistance for correction range. Level 1.3460/50 breakout suggest the "bearish" potential, though previuosly mentioned targets at 1.2920/00 remain relevant for the nearest future.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    This pair has pushed up to slightly above the monthly pivot at 110.80. The 200 hour MA is providing overhead resistance at 111.20 as is the 38.2% Fibonacci line from the decline since the early October highs. In the short term I see a rollover from the current highs and a fall back down to the 110.50s as a distinct possibility. After that there may be a further rally if the pattern unfolding from the November 30 lows is a zigzag. If that is the case then we could see the C leg reaching the 112.40s.



    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    The price tested level 1.5650/40, which turned out to be quite a strong resistance. The price currently resides close to this barrier at level 1.5630, making attempts to breach it. Indicators are turned up, which clearly suggests the change of moods, as well as yesterday's fears that level 1.5650/40 won't be able to hold back the "bulls". If it happens, yesterday's scenario will be probably realised and the price will most likely rise to resistance 1.5760/50. Nevertheless, sideways movement in the range 1.5650 – 1.5520/30 with further decline to 1.5330/20 is still a high possibility. Resistance 1.5750/60 is critical for a down trend - if it's breached, the market moods will most likely significantly change.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  10. #40

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 03/12/10

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Indications are that the countertrend rally or Elliot wave 4 in EUR/USD is probably nearing an end. Within the rally we appear to be in a sideways consolidation currently, like a triangle and the next move depends on the direction of the breakout from that range. It is possible that it could start falling very soon but there is a good probability there will be a final thrust higher with a target in the 1.3280s, where there is also additional resistance from the underside of the trend-line from the June lows, a support and resistance level and the 38.2% Fibonacci line of the bearish decline. From there the 5th wave decline may well begin but any move down would have an initial support target at 1.3100 followed by just below the 1.29 lows.



    AUD/USD: Technical Analysis

    A reversal and the change of moods in the pair suggests that the "head and shoulders" pattern is not over yet. Level 0.9710/15 breakout gave new reasons to assume that. The trading is currently carried on at level 0.9810/00. Indicators are turned up indicating further possible growth. Resistance range 0.9870-0.9840 is most likely to become the target for the growth, wherefrom either a pullback or even a reversal is very likely to take place. In case of a reversal, by the way, we;ll be still expecting "head and shoulders" pattern to continue its formation. If this resistance is breached, the "bulls" will have all chances to recommence their trend with further new maximums tests in the nearest future. A downtrend scenario will be canceled in case the price breaches resistance 0.9970 and fixes above this level.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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