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Thread: Forex Technical Analysis By Forex4you

  1. #61

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 10 January 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    EUR/USD is still falling and whilst there is some convergence with momentum at the lows, it is a little too early to say a substantial correction is on the horizon. If a correction does rise up from here, then an initial target would be the old trend-line and support and resistance level in the vicinity of 1.2950, or if higher then near the 200 Day MA at 1.3050. There will probably still be a fall afterwards, however, given the move down from the 4th appears incomplete. The 61.8% Fibonacci line from the rally in June and the monthly pivot at 1.2780 and 1.2750 respectively are two downside targets for any further selloffs.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  2. #62

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 11 January 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The EUR/USD pair bottomed and bounced back up to highs of 1.2990 yesterday but has started falling again this morning, after encountering resistance from an old trend-line from the November highs. The MACD is showing that yesterday’s correction could be an Elliot wave 4 of the wave down from the 4th January highs – with the wave 5th still to come. This wave could target 1.2850 initially, and then support at the 1.2750 level from the monthly pivot and the 61.8% Fibonacci level.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    This pair has rebounded from the lows reached yesterday in what is probably an Elliot wave 4th wave of the decline from the 4th January highs. The next move will probably be a wave 5 down, targeting just below the recent lows at 106.60 perhaps. However the fall could be stunted by some larger cyclical buying pressure. This is because a larger wave down which began in October ’10 is finishing and a correction is on the cards. Therefore caution should be exercised in adopting any short positions. After the wave 5 down bottoms, there may be a fairly strong counter-trend move back up – perhaps to the 108.50 resistance mark.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  3. #63

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 12 January 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The price breached the sideway correction range 1.2980/90 and it currently resides at level 1.3030/40. Indicators are turning upwards, suggesting to expect further growth. Although there is a strong resistance on the "bullish" way - level 1.3060/80, that is strong enough to stop growth and bring the price back to a down trend. Nevertheless, if the barrier is breached, level 1.3150 will be tested - if it's breached too, we'll be expecting a reversal to the "bullish" trend in a mid-term. Reversal down, below support 1.2990 will be a signal to the beginning of the "bearish" trend with the next fall to 1.2795 and then to 1.2700/10.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    The bounce off Monday’s lows was slightly stronger than I anticipated. It looks like a nearly completed Elliot wave 4. Once it ends the main trend down should resume temporarily. An initial downside target might be the line of support and resistance at 107.50. If the move is strong then it could move lower to the area of the old lows at 106.75. As mentioned before a larger wave cycle is probably in the process of finishing so there may be some unexpected buying pressure and caution should be exercised in shorting the pair. After wave 5 bottoms the exchange rate should rally quite strongly.



    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    Strong resistance range 1.5560-1.5530 was breached, indicating the "bullish" sentiment, so the price continued to rise, reaching level 1.5670/80. Currently the trading is carried out at 1.5640/30. Indicators turned up, suggesting further "bullish" trend. At the same time, level 1.5680/60 is considered to be a strong barrier, able to trigger a sell off in the pair. Nevertheless, if this resistance range is yet breached, level 1.5840/50 should be tested in the near future. Reversal down, below 1.5560-1.5530 will be signal to a soon local minimum test at 1.5340/30.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  4. #64

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 13 January 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The "bulls" breached resistance at 1.3060/80 and level 1.3150 is about to be tested as the next resistance. Its breakout will indicate a medium-term "bullish" trend, like it has been mentioned in the previous analysis. Indicators say in favor of a breakout and suggest to expect the next stop at level 1.3230/50, considered previously as the key level on the way up. If it's breached, we'll be anticipating a strong "bullish" potential and levels 1.3440-1.3460 tests in the near future. At the same time, the above mentioned levels are strong enough to hinder growth and bring the trading back down with local minimum tests at 1.2795, 1.2700/10. Reversal below support 1.3080/60 should be considered at the obvious sign for that.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    Looking at the current rally it is debatable now whether is an Elliot 4th wave of the fall since the 4th Jan. Firstly it has extended into the territory of wave 2 and it is also now much longer than would normally be expected. The only other possibility is that it is part of an ending diagonal. It may be that the larger cyclical forces at work are placing more than average buying pressure on the pair and that could explain the sudden extended rally and missing 5th.

    There is overhead resistance currently from an upper channel line drawn down from the middle of December and there may be a rebound down to 108.75 initially and then lower if here is a break down through the trend-line up from the 10th January lows. The monthly pivot is at 109.45 not far above the current level so any further upside may stall there.



    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    The price breached level 1.5680/60 and continued to rise, bringing forward the expectations of level 1.5840/50 test, mentioned in the prior analysis. The price rose to 1.5780, meeting a strong resistance there, so it currently consolidates at level 1.5740/30. Indicators are turned up, suggesting further growth to 1.5840/50. At the same time, the price has recently entered the range, full of strong resistance/support levels, which may give us reasons to expect quite a long-term consolidation within this narrow range. To correct their positions, the "bears" have to drag the price below level 1.5660/50 and fix there. In this case we'll be expecting a revesal to the "bearish trend".



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  5. #65

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 14 Janauary 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The rally continues higher. It broke the 4th January highs this morning and rallied up to 1.3450. There is considerable resistance at this level from old highs reached on the 3rd and 14th December, and the 4th and 14th January, completing almost cyclical 2-weekly tops, and also from the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. It is possible there could be a correction from here but before that there is the chance of a final rally. We look like we are in the process of completing an Elliot wave 4 of the impulse up this morning. Once complete it will lead to a final rally in the exchange rate probably matching the recent highs. A break of the 1.3325 lows, however would indicate a larger bearish move was underway instead.




    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  6. #66

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 17 January 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    Something of a reversal occurred at the 1.3250 highs and the exchange rate has fallen sharply overnight. There is a head and shoulders top pattern on the hourly chart which has broken its neckline and has a downside target of 1.3180. This coincides with a support level at 1.3170. In Elliot terms this may be a wave 4 correction of the rise from the 10th, so once the exchange rate finds support it may rally back up to the highs again in a final wave 5.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    We are probably in a 4th Elliot wave of the rise from the 10th Jan lows. It may have further to go; it may have finished - it has completed the minimum requirement by crossing to below the MACD zero-line. This could imply wave 5 up may be near at hand. There is also support from the trend-line from the 10th Jan lows and the exchange rate is posting a hammer candlestick on the hourly. There was a bullish weekly engulfing candlestick last week which has upside potential although this must be mitigated in the short term by yesterday’s hanging man and today’s confirmatory drop. Eventually wave 5 will rally, probably reaching the recent highs and surpassing them a little, with an upside target of 111.25 where the monthly pivot rests. If wave 4 extends it might be expected to reach support at 108.90 – although there may be a small recovery to 110.10 initially.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  7. #67

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 18 January 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The pair yesterday's decline turned out to be a correction within the up trend. The price recommenced its growth, so the trading is currently carried out at level 1.3420/30, very close to the local maximum. Indicators turned abruptly up, suggesting to expect further growth. Nevertheless, resistance levels are strong, so reversal to support 1.3240/50, i.e further sideways correction, is also a possibility. Range 1.3500-1.3450 breakout with the following fixation above will indicate a strong "bullish" potential, which has all chance to initiate growth to 1.3780/1.3800. Support 1.3080/60 breakout may trigger a reversal to the "bearish" trend.



    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    Assumptions of the previous analysis came true - strong resistance range at level 1.5950/30 didn't manage to reverse the trend, it had been easily breached, opening the way to a new barrier at level 1.6050/60, where the trading still resides. Indicators are turned up, which makes yesterday's scenario quite a possibility - the price is very likely to rise to 1.6270/60, although to make it happen the price should first fix above 1.6060/60. Reversal below to 1.5950/40 will stop the growth, initiating another correction within the range with support at level 1.5930/00. Falldown below level 1.5650/80, which is also a key support, will be a signal to the reversal to a down trend.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    This pair fell yesterday but found support overnight and then began rallying again as anticipated. The rally is probably an Elliot wave 5 of the whole move up which began at the January 10 lows. Most wave 5’s of this size surpass the high of wave 3 and travel on average 20 or so points higher, giving a target of 111.18. But the R1 monthly pivot at nearby 111.29 would also be expected to provide resistance to the rally, so it is possible the rally will stall at somewhere in between these two levels, perhaps 111.25 before falling again in a correction.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  8. #68

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 19 January 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    This pair has probably put in a top. The wave structure up from the 10th January lows now looks complete with 5 waves and 5 within the 5th. Obviously it may unfold a bit higher but it is unlikely to be much. So how far could it fall? I would be looking to 1.3350 as an immediate initial target, where there is support and resistance from old highs and lows and the 23.6% Fibonacci line of the rally off the Jan 10 lows. After that, the next target might be the support and resistance line at 1.3260 or even lower down to the monthly pivot and 50 day MA at 1.3065 depending on the strength of the move down.



    EUR/JPY: Technical Analysis

    This pair rose as anticipated and it may now have put in a top at the 111.15 highs. The Eliot waves are counting complete indicating a correction will follow. If the pair falls as anticipated it might be expected to reach the 109.50 level where there is support and resistance, the monthly pivot and a 38.2% Fibonacci line of the Jan 10 move. A further rally is also possible, with the monthly pivot at 111.30 and then support and resistance at 111.50 as possible targets.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  9. #69

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 20 January 2011

    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

    The price continued to correct within the current maximums and failed to breach level 1.3500 and fix above, after which it pulled back downwards to 1.3430/20. However, the price is currently rising again, residing at the moment around level 1.3470/80. Indicators are turning up again, although MACD divergence suggests to be cautious and be ready for the upcoming large-scale correction. Besides, the "bears" have failed to bring the trading beyond the up channel trend line (blue lines), which indicates that the "bullish" trend is currently stronger. Range 1.3500-1.3450 breakout and fixation above will initiate further growth, possibly even to 1.3780/1.3800. Nevertheless, there is a strong resistance on the way up - level 1.3580, wherefrom the correction, MACD has warned of, may begin. Support 1.3150/40 breakout will trigger a reversal to a down trend.



    GBP/USD: Technical Analysis

    The price remained within the range 1.6060 - 1.5930/00, like it has been mentioned in the previous analysis, and the trading is currently carried out at 1.5990/1.6000. Indicators are neutral, although they seem to prefer a down trend more. No significant changes have been made to the structure since the last analysis, so the scenario is the same - sideways trading within the range 1.6060 - 1.5930/00 with a possible expanding to support 1.5840. As for a medium-term outlook, the up trend is considered as dominating. Further growth to 1.6270/60 is anticipated.



    Analysis by: Forex4you.com written by Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

  10. #70

    Default Forex4you Technical Analysis 8 March 2011

    EUR/USD: technical analysis

    The EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.4050 as anticipated and then met stiff resistance from the juncture of major trendlines there. It has rolled over and fallen to 1.3920. There is a channel line supporting at 1.3915 but if it breaks through then that opens the way down to the target for the H&S pattern on the hourly chart at 1.3872. There is also support and resistance at 1.3860; and statistically we know there is good chance price will close above 1.3850. This seems to point to an eventual downside target in that region. However, price may bounce temporarily to perhaps 1.3990 before resuming. This is probably the wave 4 from the 14th Feb lows and if so it has further to unfold.



    Forex
    Analysis by: Joaquin Monfort
    Forex4you analyst

    Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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