Thread: Great Head and Shoulders pattern in USD/CAD

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy Limit at 1.044; Target: 1.084 ; Stop: 1.028.
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Since the middle of May, the USD/CAD has been trading in a bullish trend. Recently, the prices rebounded at its upper Fibonacci Fan and could recover at its Fan around 1.0645 (50.0). Now it seems that the USD could start a pull back. Important is a breakthrough of the 61.8 Fan. Also the crossing Stoch indicator through the signal line from below may indicate a further bullish trend.

"P&F USDCAD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.79%) HI/LO
Data 1.5995 - 0.9056 ~ 92 Month ~ 2812 Day
Database 2000 records 1.06469 (Last Close)
2002-09-13 00~00
2010-05-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

This week, US data and the European bank stress test results stole most of the headlines. Canada has quietly seen their currency strengthen towards the lower part of its' recent range. Tuesday saw an increase of 25 basis points on their overnight rate. Canadian Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index printed below expectations, but the currency benefited from the stabilization of commodities. While the outlook for future rate hikes is dismal, the Canadian economy is significantly in a better position than the US.Written by FX Solutions.USDCAD strength can continue towards 1.02.

"P&F USDCAD30 Box Size 40X3 or(1.15%) HI/LO
Data 1.0744 - 1.0138 ~ 2 Month ~ 58.98 Day
Database 2048 records 1.03572 (Last Close)
2010-05-25 23~00
2010-07-23 22~30 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.0760|~4O|||+_______________________________|-0.15%|6.14%
1.0720|~8O|||x_o_____________________________|0.22 %|5.74%
1.0680|~12O||x_o_+_______________+___________|0.6% |5.35%
1.0640|~16O||__o___+_____x_______x_+_________|0.97 %|4.95%
1.0600|~2OO||__o_____+___x_o_____x_o_+_______|1.34 %|4.56%
1.0560|~24O||__o_x___x_+_x_o_____x_o_x_+_____|1.71 %|4.16%
1.0520|~28O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_+___|2.08 %|3.77%
1.0480|~32O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_+_|2.46 %|3.37%
1.0440|~36O||__o___o___o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|2.83 %|2.98%
1.0400|~4OO||__________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.2% |2.58%
1.0360|~44O||__________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_|3.57 %|2.19%
1.0320|~48O||______________o_x_o___o_x_____V_|3.95 %|1.8%
1.0280|~52O||______________o_x_____o_______V_|4.32 %|1.4%
1.0240|~56O||______________o_x___+_________V_4.69% |1.01%
1.0200|~6OO||______________o_x_+___________V_5.06% |0.61%
1.0160|~64O||______________o_+_____________V_5.44% |0.22%
1.0120|~68O||______________+_________________|5.81 %|-0.18%
Column|~72O||2_8_3_3_3_5_7_1_7_3_8_9_7_5_3_3_|
Count||~76O||______________2_________________|


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD.
Trade Idea: USD/Cad - Buy (Stop) at 1.0280; Target: 1.0480 ; Stop: 1.0200.
See the details on the charts.

"P&F USDCAD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(5.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6196 - 0.9056 ~ 246.9 Month ~ 7259 Day
Database 1038 records 1.02573 (Last Close)
1990-12-02 00~00
2010-10-17 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.6250|~25O||____________+________________________ _______|-0.33%|79.44%
1.6000|~5OO||________x___x_+______________________ _______|1.21%|76.68%
1.5750|~75O||____x___x_o_x_o_+____________________ _______|2.75%|73.92%
1.5500|~1OOO|____x_o_x_o_x_o___+__________________ _______|4.3%|71.16%
1.5250|~125O|____x_o_x_o___o_____+________________ _______|5.84%|68.4%
1.5000|~15OO|____x_o_x_____o_______+______________ _______|7.38%|65.64%
1.4750|~175O|____x_o_x_____o_________+____________ _______|8.93%|62.88%
1.4500|~2OOO|____x_o_____+_o___________+__________ _______|10.47%|60.11%
1.4250|~225O|x___x_____+___o_____________+________ _______|12.02%|57.35%
1.4000|~25OO|x_o_x___+_____o_x_____________+______ _______|13.56%|54.59%
1.3750|~275O|x_o_x_+_______o_x_o_____________+____ _______|15.1%|51.83%
1.3500|~3OOO|x_o_+_________o_x_o_______________+__ _______|16.65%|49.07%
1.3250|~325O|x_+___________o_x_o_________________+ _______|18.19%|46.31%
1.3000|~35OO|x_____________o_x_o_________x___x___x _+_____|19.73%|43.55%
1.2750|~375O|x_____________o___o_________x_o_x_o_x _o_+___|21.28%|40.79%
1.2500|~4OOO|x_________________o_x_______x_o_x_o_x _o___+_|22.82%|38.03%
1.2250|~425O|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x _o_____|24.36%|35.27%
1.2000|~45OO|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o__ _o_____|25.91%|32.51%
1.1750|~475O|x_________________o___o_x___x_o_x____ _o_____|27.45%|29.75%
1.1500|~5OOO|x_____________________o_x_o_x_o______ _o_____|28.99%|26.99%
1.1250|~525O|______________________o_x_o_x________ _o_____|30.54%|24.23%
1.1000|~55OO|______________________o___o_x________ _o_____|32.08%|21.47%
1.0750|~575O|__________________________o_x________ _o_x___|33.63%|18.71%
1.0500|~6OOO|__________________________o_x________ _o_x_o_|35.17%|15.95%
1.0250|~625O|==========================o=x=======+ =o=x=o=x36.71%|13.18%
1.0000|~65OO|__________________________o_x_____+__ _o_+_o_|38.26%|10.42%
0.9750|~675O|__________________________o_x___+____ _+___+_|39.8%|7.66%
0.9500|~7OOO|__________________________o_x_+______ _______|41.34%|4.9%
0.9250|~725O|__________________________o_+________ _______|42.89%|2.14%
0.9000|~75OO|__________________________+__________ _______|44.43%|-0.62%
Column|||||||1_3_9_5_6_3_3_1_5_9_3_6_3_1_1_6_6_4_4 _1_3_3_|
Count||||||||2_____________3___________O_5________ _2_____|



BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

"P&F USDCAD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(5.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6196 - 0.9056 ~ 248.57 Month ~ 7308 Day
Database 1045 records 1.00896 (Last Close)
1990-12-02 00~00
2010-12-05 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.6250|~25O||________+___+________________________ _______|-0.33%|79.44%
1.6000|~5OO||____+___x_+_x_+______________________ _______|1.21%|76.68%
1.5750|~75O||____x_+_x_o_x_o_+____________________ _______|2.75%|73.92%
1.5500|~1OOO|____x_o_x_o_x_o___+__________________ _______|4.3%|71.16%
1.5250|~125O|____x_o_x_o___o_____+________________ _______|5.84%|68.4%
1.5000|~15OO|____x_o_x_____o_______+______________ _______|7.38%|65.64%
1.4750|~175O|____x_o_x_____o_________+____________ _______|8.93%|62.88%
1.4500|~2OOO|+___x_o_____+_o___________+__________ _______|10.47%|60.11%
1.4250|~225O|x_+_x_____+___o_____________+________ _______|12.02%|57.35%
1.4000|~25OO|x_o_x___+_____o_x_____________+______ _______|13.56%|54.59%
1.3750|~275O|x_o_x_+_______o_x_o_____________+____ _______|15.1%|51.83%
1.3500|~3OOO|x_o_+_________o_x_o_______________+__ _______|16.65%|49.07%
1.3250|~325O|x_+___________o_x_o_________________+ _______|18.19%|46.31%
1.3000|~35OO|x_____________o_x_o_________x___x___x _+_____|19.73%|43.55%
1.2750|~375O|x_____________o_+_o_________x_o_x_o_x _o_+___|21.28%|40.79%
1.2500|~4OOO|x_____________+___o_x_______x_o_x_o_x _o___+_|22.82%|38.03%
1.2250|~425O|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x _o_____|24.36%|35.27%
1.2000|~45OO|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o__ _o_____|25.91%|32.51%
1.1750|~475O|x_________________o_+_o_x___x_o_x____ _o_____|27.45%|29.75%
1.1500|~5OOO|x_________________+___o_x_o_x_o______ _o_____|28.99%|26.99%
1.1250|~525O|______________________o_x_o_x________ _o_____|30.54%|24.23%
1.1000|~55OO|______________________o_+_o_x________ _o_____|32.08%|21.47%
1.0750|~575O|______________________+___o_x________ _o_x___|33.63%|18.71%
1.0500|~6OOO|__________________________o_x________ _o_x_o_|35.17%|15.95%
1.0250|~625O|__________________________o_x_______+ _o_x_o_|36.71%|13.18%
1.0000|~65OO|==========================o=x=====+== =o=+=o=|38.26%|10.42%
0.9750|~675O|__________________________o_x___+____ _+___+_|39.8%|7.66%
0.9500|~7OOO|__________________________o_x_+______ _______|41.34%|4.9%
0.9250|~725O|__________________________o_+________ _______|42.89%|2.14%
0.9000|~75OO|__________________________+__________ _______|44.43%|-0.62%
Column|||||||1_3_9_5_6_3_3_1_5_9_3_6_3_1_1_6_6_4_4 _1_3_3_|
Count||||||||2_____________3___________O_5________ _2_____|



BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.