Thread: Point and Figure Charting in Forex

As expected, Cable moved up in the Asian and the European sessions today to touch a high of 1.5968. The pair honoured the Resistance at 1.5970 (61.8% retracement of the fall from 1.7042 (Aug-09) to 1.4227 (May-09)) and is currently trading lower. We may see the markets go down towards 1.5900-1.5700, before another rally beyond 1.60 figure in the coming days.

"P&F GBPUSD1 Box Size 5X3 or(0.09%) CLOSE
Data 1.5965 - 1.5862 ~ 0 Month ~ 0.53 Day
Database 768 records 1.59201 (Last Close)
2010-08-03 02~34
2010-08-03 15~24 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.5965|~5||||______________________________|0%|0.6 5%
1.5960|~1O|||______________x___x_______+___|0.03%| 0.62%
1.5955|~15|||__________x___x_o_x_o_____x_+_|0.06%| 0.59%
1.5950|~2O|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_|0.09%| 0.55%
1.5945|~25|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_|0.13%| 0.52%
1.5940|~3O|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_|0.16%| 0.49%
1.5935|~35|||__________x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.19%| 0.46%
1.5930|~4O|||__________x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.22%| 0.43%
1.5925|~45|||______x___x_____o_x_o___o___o_|0.25%| 0.4%
1.5920|~5O|||______x_o_x_____o_x_______+_o_|0.28%| 0.37%
1.5915|~55|||______x_o_x_____o_x_____+___o_|0.31%| 0.33%
1.5910|~6O|||______x_o_x_____o_x___+_____+_|0.34%| 0.3%
1.5905|~65|||______x_o_x_____o_x_+_________|0.38%| 0.27%
1.5900|~7O|||______x_o_x_____o_+___________|0.41%| 0.24%
1.5895|~75|||______x_o_______+_____________|0.44%| 0.21%
1.5890|~8O|||______x_______+_______________|0.47%| 0.18%
1.5885|~85|||o_____x_____+_________________|0.5%|0 .15%
1.5880|~9O|||o_x___x___+___________________|0.53%| 0.11%
1.5875|~95|||o_x_o_x_+_____________________|0.56%| 0.08%
1.5870|~1OO||o_x_o_x_______________________|0.6%|0 .05%
1.5865|~1O5||o_x_o_________________________|0.63%| 0.02%
1.5860|~11O||o_+___________________________|0.66%|-0.01%
Column|~115||6_4_3_1_6_1_4_5_1_1_7_3_3_6_8_|
Count|~12O|||______2___2_____2_2___________|


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

Originally Posted by MDunleavy

2010 Currency Outlook: USD

After strong rallies in 2008 and early 2009, USD peaked in March. In order to combat the worst recession since the World War II, the Fed reduced the policy rate to an unprecedentedly low level and implemented a series of quantitative easing policies. The 'twin deficits' problem (current account and fiscal deficits) has put USD's status as the reserve currency at risks and triggered investors to dump the currency. Worries about the dollar's future as well as increase in risk appetite as global economic outlook recovered later in 2009 brought the greenback to extremely low levels.

Undervaluation: According Fed's measure, the trade-weighted USD index plummeted -13% against major currencies after making 2.5-year high in March. On annual basis, the gauge dropped -8%, the biggest loss since 2003. Despite modest recovery in December 2009, the dollar index continued hovering at historic lows.

ICE's US dollar index also showed a similar pattern. The valuation is about 1.5 standard deviations below its long-term average. From the viewpoint of mean-reversion, the dollar is poised for a strong rebound.

On a PPP basis, the dollar also looked undervalued when compared with major currencies. The table below shows the PPP values of 8 currencies which were used by Fed in composing the USD Major Currencies Index. Using closing price as of December 2009, USD is undervalued when compared with all 'major currencies'.

However, being cheap is not sufficient to make USD higher. The US needs to show promising economic growth to attract buying.[Written by actionforex]



BJF-Trading-Group-mixAEGN20100110.xls

EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4062 and closed at 1.4086.The bias remains to the downside targeting 1.4000 psychological level. Only and only if euro trades below these levels further bearishness till 1.38 could be seen. Immediate resistance is at 1.4120 levels. (EURUSD–1.4094) Neutral

The euro is testing the rising trendline; penetration would indicate that the recent rally has
weakened, and reversal below 1.2500 would indicate another test of primary support at 1.1900.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

"P&F EURUSD5 Box Size 25X3 or(0.58%) HI/LO
Data 1.3333 - 1.2663 ~ 1 Month ~ 23.49 Day
Database 5000 records 1.27105 (Last Close)
2010-07-28 11~15
2010-08-20 22~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.3325|~25|||______________+______________________ _____|0.06%|5.23%
1.3300|~5O|||______________x_o____________________ _____|0.25%|5.03%
1.3275|~75|||______________x_o_+__________________ _____|0.44%|4.83%
1.3250|~1OO||______x_______x_o___+________________ _____|0.62%|4.64%
1.3225|~125||______x_o_x___x_o_x___+______________ _____|0.81%|4.44%
1.3200|~15O||______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___+____________ _____|1%|4.24%
1.3175|~175||______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+__________ _____|1.19%|4.04%
1.3150|~2OO||______x_o_x_o___o_x_o_______+________ _____|1.37%|3.85%
1.3125|~225||______x_o_____+_o_x_o_________+______ _____|1.56%|3.65%
1.3100|~25O||__x___x_____+___o_x_o___________+____ _____|1.75%|3.45%
1.3075|~275||__x_o_x___+_____o___o_____________+__ _____|1.94%|3.25%
1.3050|~3OO||__x_o_x_+___________o_______________+ _____|2.12%|3.06%
1.3025|~325||o_x_o_x_____________o________________ _+___|2.31%|2.86%
1.3000|~35O||o_x_o_______________o________________ ___+_|2.5%|2.66%
1.2975|~375||o_+_________________o________________ _____|2.69%|2.46%
1.2950|~4OO||+___________________o________________ _____|2.87%|2.27%
1.2925|~425||____________________o_x______________ _____|3.06%|2.07%
1.2900|~45O||====================o=x=o=x===x===x== =x===|3.25%|1.87%
1.2875|~475||____________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o _x_o_|3.44%|1.67%
1.2850|~5OO||____________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o _x_o_|3.62%|1.48%
1.2825|~525||________________________o_x_o_x_o___o _x_o_|3.81%|1.28%
1.2800|~55O||________________________o___o_x_____o _x_o_|4%|1.08%
1.2775|~575||============================o=x=====o =+=o=|4.19%|0.88%
1.2750|~6OO||____________________________o_______+ ___o_|4.37%|0.69%
1.2725|~625||_____________________________________ ___o_|4.56%|0.49%
1.2700|~65O||_____________________________________ ___o_|4.75%|0.29%
1.2675|~675||_____________________________________ ___o_|4.94%|0.09%
1.2650|||||||_____________________________________ ___+_|5.12%|-0.1%
Column|||||||3_5_4_1_5_4_3_6_1_6_1_3_5_4_6_6_3_3_5 _5_9_|
Count||||||||______O_________O___5________________ _____|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

The Yen opened the last week, on a weak note following an emergency meeting of the Bank of Japan, that announced more liquidity measures. Also the government said that it was planning more stimulus for the economy. A few hours after the Yen not only recovered lost ground but was testing 15-year lows.
Despite improvement in market sentiment and rising government bond yields as the week went by, the USD/JPY did not rise and moved in ranges below 84.60
On Friday, after the NFP report, the pair jumped to 85.20 but reversed sharply and pulled back to 84.20 to finish the week below 84.50.
The dollar broke through primary support at 85.00 and is headed for a test of support at the 1995 low of 80.00 The Bank of Japan threatens to intervene to prevent further appreciation, but there are doubts about the political will to do so. Recovery above 88.00 is unlikely at this stage, but would warn that the down-trend is weakening.
I believe that we can consider the possibility of opening long positions. Details on the chart.

"P&F USDJPY1 Box Size 10X3 or(0.35%) HI/LO
Data 85.894 - 83.666 ~ 0.31 Month ~ 9.02 Day
Database 12000 records 84.297 (Last Close)
2010-08-25 22~24
2010-09-03 22~59 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

85.90|~1O|||______+_______________________|-0.01%|2.67%
85.80|~2O|||______x_o_____________________|0.11%|2 .55%
85.70|~3O|||______x_o_+___________________|0.23%|2 .43%
85.60|~4O|||______x_o___+_________________|0.34%|2 .31%
85.50|~5O|||______x_o_____+_______________|0.46%|2 .19%
85.40|~6O|||______x_o_______+_____________|0.58%|2 .07%
85.30|~7O|||______x_o_________+_______+___|0.69%|1 .95%
85.20|~8O|||______x_o___________+_____x_+_|0.81%|1 .83%
85.10|~9O|||______x_o_____________+___x_o_|0.92%|1 .71%
85.00|~1OO||__x___x_o_______________+_x_o_|1.04%|1 .59%
84.90|~11O||__x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.16%|1 .47%
84.80|~12O||o_x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.27%|1 .36%
84.70|~13O||o_x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.39%|1 .24%
84.60|~14O||o_x_o_x_o_____________x___x_o_|1.51%|1 .12%
84.50|~15O||o_x_o___o_x___x___x___x_o_x_o_|1.62%|1 %
84.40|~16O||o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|1.74%|0 .88%
84.30|~17O||o_______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|1.86%|0 .76%
84.20|~18O||________o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|1.97%|0 .64%
84.10|~19O||________o_______o_x_o_x_o_x___|2.09%|0 .52%
84.00|~2OO||________________o_x_o_x_o___+_|2.21%|0 .4%
83.90|~21O||________________o___o_x___+___|2.32%|0 .28%
83.80|~22O||____________________o_x_+_____|2.44%|0 .16%
83.70|~23O||____________________o_+_______|2.55%|0 .04%
83.60|~24O||____________________+_________|2.67%|-0.08%
Column||||||6_7_5_1_1_4_3_3_6_6_8_9_6_1_9_|
Count|||||||______3_8_________________2___|


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.

Trade Idea: AUD/JPY - Sell Stop at 80.00\80.50; Target: 77.00 ; Stop: 81.00\81.50.
=================
We compare the AUD / JPY in a minus? This week was a bit extreme if you ask me. The night after the mega peak (that all the planet participated in), he began a fairly strong recoil.
=================
"P&F AUDJPY5 Box Size 150X3 or(0.57%) CLOSE
Data 81.257 - 77.3 ~ 0.38 Month ~ 11.06 Day
Database 2010 records 80.883 (Last Close)
2010-09-09 13~50
2010-09-20 15~15 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

81.30|~15|||______________________________________ ________+_____|-0.05%|5.17%
81.15|~3O|||______________________________________ ________x_+___|0.13%|4.98%
81.00|~45|||______________________________________ ________x_o_x_|0.32%|4.79%
80.85|~6O|||______________________________________ ________x_o_x_|0.5%|4.59%
80.70|~75|||______________________________________ ________x_o_x_|0.69%|4.4%
80.55|~9O|||______________________________________ x_______x_o_x_|0.87%|4.2%
80.40|~1O5||______________________________________ x_o_x___x_o_x_|1.05%|4.01%
80.25|~12O||______________________________________ x_o_x_o_x_o___|1.24%|3.82%
80.10|~135||__________________________________x___ x_o_x_o_x_____|1.42%|3.62%
79.95|~15O||__________________________________x_o_ x_o_x_o_______|1.61%|3.43%
79.80|~165||__________________________________x_o_ x_o_x_________|1.79%|3.23%
79.65|~18O||__________________________________x_o_ x_o_x_________|1.98%|3.04%
79.50|~195||__________________________________x_o_ __o___________|2.16%|2.85%
79.35|~21O||__________________________________x___ ______________|2.35%|2.65%
79.20|~225||__________________________________x___ ____________+_|2.53%|2.46%
79.05|~24O||__________________________________x___ __________+___|2.72%|2.26%
78.90|~255||__________________________________x___ ________+_____|2.9%|2.07%
78.75|~27O||__________________________________x___ ______+_______|3.09%|1.88%
78.60|~285||__________________________________x___ ____+_________|3.27%|1.68%
78.45|~3OO||__________x___x___________x_______x___ __+___________|3.45%|1.49%
78.30|~315||__________x_o_x_o_x_______x_o_x___x___ +_____________|3.64%|1.29%
78.15|~33O||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_+_ ______________|3.82%|1.1%
78.00|~345||__________x_o___o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x___ ______________|4.01%|0.91%
77.85|~36O||__________x_____o_+_o_x_o_x_o___o_____ ______________|4.19%|0.71%
77.70|~375||__x___x___x_____+___o_x_o_x___+_______ ______________|4.38%|0.52%
77.55|~39O||__x_o_x_o_x___+_____o___o_x_+_________ ______________|4.56%|0.32%
77.40|~4O5||o_x_o_x_o_x_+___________o_+___________ ______________|4.75%|0.13%
77.25|~42O||o___o___o_+_____________+_____________ ______________|4.93%|-0.06%
Column||||||2_3_3_3_3_8_3_3_4_3_5_3_4_7_4_3_3_1_4_ 7_7_6_3_8_6_5_|
Count|||||||__________________________________5___ ______________|



BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

Trade Idea: Nzd/Usd - Buy Limit at ~0.72.00; Target: ~0.76.00 ; Stop: ~0.7120.
=============
I am neutral on NZD/USD, but wait for upward movement.
The weak fundamentals of New Zealand are offset by the general greenback sell off. This trend is likely to continue in the upcoming week, with more range trading expected.

"P&F NZDUSD5 Box Size 10X3 or(0.41%) HI/LO
Data 0.7415 - 0.7214 ~ 0.38 Month ~ 11.06 Day
Database 2010 records 0.73369 (Last Close)
2010-09-16 06~15
2010-09-27 07~45 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

0.7420|~1O|||________________________________+____ _________|-0.07%|2.86%
0.7410|~2O|||________________________________x_+__ _________|0.07%|2.72%
0.7400|~3O|||____________________________x___x_o_+ _________|0.2%|2.58%
0.7390|~4O|||____________________________x_o_x_o_x _+_______|0.34%|2.44%
0.7380|~5O|||________________________x___x_o_x_o_x _o_+_____|0.47%|2.3%
0.7370|~6O|||________________________x_o_x_o___o_x _o___+___|0.61%|2.16%
0.7360|~7O|||________________________x_o_x_____o_x _o_____x_|0.74%|2.02%
0.7350|~8O|||____________________x___x_o_______o__ _o_____x_|0.88%|1.89%
0.7340|~9O|||____________________x_o_x___________+ _o_____x_|1.01%|1.75%
0.7330|~1OO||________x___________x_o_x_________+__ _o_x___x_|1.15%|1.61%
0.7320|~11O||________x_o_________x_o_________+____ _o_x_o_x_|1.28%|1.47%
0.7310|~12O||________x_o_____x___x_________+______ _o_x_o_x_|1.42%|1.33%
0.7300|~13O||________x_o_x___x_o_x_______+________ _o_x_o_x_|1.55%|1.19%
0.7290|~14O||________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____+__________ _o_x_o_x_|1.69%|1.05%
0.7280|~15O||________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___+____________ _o_x_o___|1.82%|0.91%
0.7270|~16O||x_______x_o_x_o___o_x_+______________ _o_+_____|1.96%|0.78%
0.7260|~17O||x_o_____x_o_x___+_o_+________________ _+_______|2.09%|0.64%
0.7250|~18O||x_o_x___x_o___+___+__________________ _________|2.23%|0.5%
0.7240|~19O||x_o_x_o_x___+________________________ _________|2.36%|0.36%
0.7230|~2OO||__o_x_o_x_+__________________________ _________|2.49%|0.22%
0.7220|~21O||__o___o_+____________________________ _________|2.63%|0.08%
0.7210|~22O||______+______________________________ _________|2.76%|-0.06%
Column|||||||4_5_3_3_1_8_5_3_4_5_9_3_6_3_5_3_4_6_4 _1_6_5_8_|
Count||||||||________1____________________________ _2_______|



BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

Trade Idea: Eur/Usd- Buy at 1.3750\1.3800; Target: 1.3900\1.3950 ; Stop: 1.3700.
=======================
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum this week, topped at 1.3790 on Friday after made a clear, strong and convincing breakout above 1.3670 resistance area.
From this point, beside minor resistance around 1.3800, I see no significant resistance until 1.3950, which is the next technical bullish target.
Break above 1.3950 could trigger further bullish scenario.

"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 300X3 or(7.42%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225; ~ 246.43 Month; ~ 7245 Day; ~ 20 Years
Database 1036 records; 1.379 (Last Close)
1990-11-25 00~00
2010-09-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.62|_____________________________________________ ___+_____________|
1.59|_____________________________________________ ___x_+___________|
1.56|_____________________________________________ ___x_o_+_________|
1.53|_____________________________________________ ___x_o___+_______|
1.50|_____________________________________________ ___x_o_____x_____|
1.47|____________________+________________________ ___x_o_x___x_o___|
1.44|________+___________x_+______________________ ___x_o_x_o_x_o_+_|
1.41|________x_+_________x_o_x____________________ ___x_o_x_o_x_o___|
1.38|________x_o_x_______x_o_x_o__________________ ___x_o_x_o_x_o___|
1.35|x_______x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_+_______________x ___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.32|x_o_____x_o_x_o_+___x_o___o___+_____________x _o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.29|__o_x___x_o___o___+_x_____o_____+_______x___x _o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|
1.26|__o_x_o_x_____o_____x_____o_______+_____x_o_x _o_x_o___o___o_x_|
1.23|__o_x_o_x_____o_x___x_____o_x_______+___x_o_x _o_x_________o_x_|
1.20|__o_x_o_x___+_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_______+_x_o__ _o_x_________o_+_|
1.17|__o_x_o___+___o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_____x___x____ _o___________+___|
1.14|__o_x___+_____o___o_x_____o_x_o_____x_o_x____ ___________+_____|
1.11|__o_x_+___________o_______o_x_o_____x_o_x____ _________+_______|
1.08|__o_+_____________________o_x_o_____x_o______ _______+_________|
1.05|__+_______________________o___o_____x________ _____+___________|
1.02|______________________________o_____x________ ___+_____________|
0.99|______________________________o_____x________ _+_______________|
0.96|______________________________o_____x_______+ _________________|
0.93|______________________________o_x___x_____+__ _________________|
0.90|______________________________o_x_o_x___+____ _________________|
0.87|______________________________o_x_o_x_+______ _________________|
0.84|______________________________o___o_+________ _________________|
0.81|__________________________________+__________ _________________|
|||||2_9_7_4_8_4_3_8_3_4_1_4_3_1_6_1_3_3_1_3_7_3_5 _6_1_1_7_7_8_1_5_|
|||||Column Count________1_____2___3_____1___________4_1______ _O___|




BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

Trade Idea: Usd/Chf - Sell Limit,Stop at 0.9640; Target: 0.9520 ; Stop: 0.9701.
========================
USDCHF continues its bearish movement from 1.1730 and the fall extended to as low as 0.9555 level.
Further decline is still possible next week and next target would be at 0.9400 area and even 0.9200 area.
Resistance is at 0.9840\80, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue.
========================
Dollar Index and the Swiss franc is well correlated with each other.
------------------------
And guess from, since September 28, the USDX has already fallen from 79.60 to 77.20.
The 77.00 support, however, had kept the index from falling.
Given this and its oversold condition, the index may range for awhile or even rally before continuing its descent.
A break of the 77.00 level would push the index down to around 74.00.
========================
"P&F _DXY1 Box Size 10X3 or(0.38%) CLOSE
Data 79.8 - 76.92 ~ 0.36 Month ~ 10.67 Day
Database 12000 records 77.2 (Last Close)
2010-09-28 07~01
2010-10-08 22~59 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

79.8|~1O|||x_+____________________________________ _________|0.00%|
79.7|~2O|||x_o_+__________________________________ _________|0.13%|
79.6|~3O|||x_o___+________________________________ _________|0.25%|
79.5|~4O|||x_o_x___+______________________________ _________|0.38%|
79.4|~5O|||__o_x_o___+____________________________ _________|0.5%|3
79.3|~6O|||__o_x_o_____+__________________________ _________|0.63%|
79.2|~7O|||__o___o_______+________________________ _________|0.75%|
79.1|~8O|||______o_________+______________________ _________|0.88%|
79.0|~9O|||______o_________x_+____________________ _________|1.00%|
78.9|~1OO||______o_x___x___x_o_+__________________ _________|1.13%|
78.8|~11O||______o_x_o_x_o_x_o___+________________ _________|1.25%|
78.7|~12O||______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+______________ _________|1.38%|
78.6|~13O||______o___o___o_x_o_____x_+____________ _________|1.50%|
78.5|~14O||______________o_x_o_x___x_o_+__________ _________|1.63%|
78.4|~15O||______________o___o_x_o_x_o___+________ _________|1.75%|
78.3|~16O||__________________o_x_o_x_o_____+______ _________|1.88%|
78.2|~17O||__________________o_x_o___o_______+____ _________|2.01%|
78.1|~18O||__________________o_x_____o_________+__ _________|2.13%|
78.0|~19O||__________________o_______o___________+ _________|2.26%|
77.9|~2OO||__________________________o_x__________ _+_______|2.38%|
77.8|~21O||__________________________o_x_o_x______ ___+_____|2.51%|
77.7|~22O||__________________________o_x_o_x_o____ _x___+___|2.63%|
77.6|~23O||__________________________o_x_o_x_o_x__ _x_o_x_+_|2.76%|
77.5|~24O||__________________________o___o___o_x_o _x_o_x_o_|2.88%|
77.4|~25O||__________________________________o_x_o _x_o_x_o_|3.01%|
77.3|~26O||__________________________________o_x_o _x_o_x_o_|3.13%|
77.2|~27O||__________________________________o_x_o ___o_x_o_|3.26%|
77.1|~28O||__________________________________o_x__ ___o_+_o_|3.38%|
77.0|~29O||__________________________________o_x__ ___+___+_|3.51%|
76.9|~3OO||__________________________________o____ _________|3.63%|
Column~31O|4_6_3_9_3_3_3_5_6_1_5_3_4_1_4_4_3_9_7_4 _5_6_5_5_|
Count~32O||__________________O_______1____________ _________|


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.